This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Someone Just Got Amaranth'd

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Natural Gas futures prics are exploding higher... By now everyone is quite aware of the US climatic conditions so whatever squeeze just took place has nothing to do with fundamentals, and everything to do with someone being Amaranth'd. The only question is who, and who is their counterparty (especially if it is a public company).

March Futures

 

and Feb Futures

 

The last 3 days in NG is +9.6%, -6.5%, and today +10.4% - these are 5 sigma swings!!

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:38 | 4381032 Caracalla
Caracalla's picture

Natural gas = Full Retard

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:44 | 4381065 pandabear01
pandabear01's picture

get ur head out of the sand.   NG will fill most all tanks sooner than later

 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:47 | 4381090 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Which tanks are you referring to?

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:50 | 4381110 HobbyFarmer
HobbyFarmer's picture

our propane tank was filled up 2 weeks ago (we lock our price in for 12 months--> $1.52) and we were told by the co-op that the price was going for $5 a gallon now if people hadn't locked in.  The co-op has 1 lock in date per year.

When I picked up my cow feed last night (from the co-op) I was told prices were going for 5.50 a gallon, with 100 gallon limits.  Northern wisconsin is paying over 7 dollars a gallon.

I run my woodstove pretty much nonstop right now and my propane use is minimal....but man, do I feel for people who don't plan ahead!

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:57 | 4381157 Atlas_shrugging
Atlas_shrugging's picture

Corzine got another firm up and running that quickly?

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:08 | 4381219 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Corzine is the spitting image of Boss Tweed

http://tinyurl.com/lu8hm46

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:12 | 4381239 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

this seems to be the first "leakage" the Fed has allowed since '11...all commodities have been entirely contained and all hot money has been contained in equity, RE, CRE, bonds...

This bodes very well for those holding real stuff...the dam has cracked and watch out now for the flood

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:13 | 4381246 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Yup, the weather has nothing to do with it.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:37 | 4381405 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

the Fed's tapering seems to mean the barn door of liquidity is unlocked...just may take a few pushes before swings open

Dollar weakening on the taper seems ominous

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:38 | 4381414 negative rates
negative rates's picture

I thought hope and change was going to be price stability, not price volitility.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:47 | 4381463 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

No change without volatility, man.  ;-)

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:01 | 4381179 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

You should look into the bovine methane capture systems over at cowfartronics.com.  It is the future of sustainable farming.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:04 | 4381191 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

it's just temporary...

they need the gas for the ballons for Obama's "he saved the world" parade and after that gas will go down.

ps: you might also want to go long rubber.... balloons and all...

The FED is handling the confetti so that's already covered...

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:14 | 4381259 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

You attended his State of the Coup after-party at Club Probe?

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 18:49 | 4382056 Intoxicologist
Intoxicologist's picture

People did plan ahead in Northern Wisconsin and they still can't get propane.  For example, a friend of mine's mother prebought nearly two-years worth of propane, and she can't get it delivered.  She was down to 8% left in her tank, so her kids installed a pellet stove for her last weekend.  I'll squeak by the rest of the season, but this spring I'm building a coppice stove.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:50 | 4381115 pandabear01
pandabear01's picture

tanks attached to moving transportation

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:58 | 4381167 moonman
moonman's picture

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:29 | 4381357 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

My point is you don't fill typical tanks with LNG.  It's primarily Propane.  Different product!

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:48 | 4381095 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Tanks in what?  NObody will be able to afford a car in the near future nor need one cause there won't be any jobs to go to or stores to shop in!

 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:39 | 4381421 negative rates
negative rates's picture

That's why we have horses.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:04 | 4381099 aVileRat
aVileRat's picture

Yup.

People need to drive & move due to the geography of N.America. Unleaded gasoline by REAL cost of production is nearly outside the purchasing power of the average workie. Alternative is nuclear powered cars. Good luck with that.

Model S's were stalling in the Norwegian & NYC cold snap, so the battery tech is the barrier to entry still (as GM proved).

And yes, margin monday. As a guy at Davos said, gloves are off this round.

A yellen move on the January number were expected. EUI-90 will give her clearance to taper, they will try. Leverage will collapse and they will reopen the repo-chain.

EM's tried to force her hand and now it's the game of chicken for who has the most reserves. If you look at Turkey's reserves, it's a classic Poundbreaker scenario, but now extrapolate it to most of the OPEC chain. So here we are, see where the support ends at the EOD and Check to PBOC.

 

 

 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:56 | 4381500 Lore
Lore's picture

Re: "Unleaded gasoline by REAL cost of production is nearly outside the purchasing power of the average workie."

Maircans don't have carbon, transit and other taxes slapped on their gasoline, so for Canadians travelling across the border, a fill-up is always a pleasant surprise!

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 20:13 | 4382477 doctor10
doctor10's picture

Here's a thorium powered Caddy for ya...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCHhjrYOMh8

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:51 | 4381113 Debtonation
Debtonation's picture

The windchill was -40 F the other day in southern MN.  Icecicles were forming in my nose when I breathe.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:01 | 4381184 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Better not try and pee outside...

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:12 | 4381253 Woodhippie
Woodhippie's picture

More importantly, don't pee outside in the wind.

 

Flying ice cubes can pummel the balls.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:25 | 4381341 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Yes but if you point downwind you can destroy your enemies

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:14 | 4381258 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

They've changed the windchill calculations since I grew up near Marshall.  I wonder what the chill would have been for you calculated the old way?

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 20:06 | 4382443 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

Hedonic windchill calculations now?

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 17:44 | 4381773 Leonardo Fibonacci2
Leonardo Fibonacci2's picture

Colonel, the Zyclon B tanks

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:49 | 4381096 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Wasnt me (for a change on the winning side).

On the other hand NG was to power our SOTU recovery. It does not bode well for that.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:02 | 4381180 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

It's temporary; it's just a game for some banksters; they'll bring the price back down again.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:52 | 4381123 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

You see that chart right there at the top of hte page; that's manipulation. That's the same as the $145/barrel oil we had a few years ago. You can short this bitch now on the Futures market and make money on it; that's why it was done, so the Perps. could go short now and take all the little enthusiasts with them who trend followed on the way up. ok? there's a two minute course in how to make money in the futures market; you look for things like this. that exponential chart, (they are never parabolic), is unstable. anything over forty five degrees up angle is non systainable and when it transitions like that to vertical; it's done; you can stick a fork in it. or better yet, short it and make some money.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:32 | 4381378 walküre
walküre's picture

Yup. Could stall out near $7 Feb and March contracts. Not sustainable and all the NG related oil production will shut down. Nobody will reopen capped NG wells for this short term. Neither the demand nor the capital is there. Tons of exploration and small producers are sinking and scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Big guys need low commodity prices so they can buy the small guys on the cheap.

This is a blip and a good shorting opportunity. Reminds me of gold but I was too emotionally invested and attached to $1900 gold.

NG goes back down to $3 soon enough.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 17:04 | 4381542 Lore
Lore's picture

...Unless it really is different this time.  Big shale gas producers allegedly lied through their teeth about reserves.  Cold winter might have expedited the first big tremor as cumulative Peak Production begins its downward inflection.  It doesn't seem like coincidence that countries targeted for Liberation also happen to be making big gas discoveries.  Regardless, I don't trade these contracts, and you could be bang on for the very near term. Rgds

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 17:41 | 4381759 Augustus
Augustus's picture

The NG producers are delivering more gas every month.

The cold winter problem is just demonstrating how stupid the Obama policies are.  Coal burning generators are closed and not delivering anything to the grid.  NG has been the preferred substitute.  Except that the pipes have not been built to many areas.  The NG is available, just not in the right places.  And the NIMBYs are doing everything to prevent the construction.  Bloomberg had a good article about the price differentials between NY and Boston.  Limited capacity to NY but extreme shortage to Boston.  Upper New England is in an even worse situation related to pipe availability and the PSCs are arguing over it to increase the delay.  Of course pipe capacity will be unneeded if Obama can outlaw fracking.  The idiot Cuomo has shutdown fracking so there is no supply or taxes from the NY reserves.  Put that bastard out in the cold sleeping with three dogs for a couple of weeks and he will have a different opinion.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 18:03 | 4381863 walküre
walküre's picture

Buffet made a big investment late last year in Phillips66 PSX. He's close to Obama and will get his pipelines built after he benefited early on from the rail roads carrying oil. Remember the deal he made early 2009 with BNS. Not sure but I'd think he cashed out of that by now and is going long pipelines.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 20:08 | 4382457 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

Plus Buffett bought into Canadian oil sands. He needs to get that northern product shipped

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:57 | 4381161 Lux Fiat
Lux Fiat's picture

Between rememberances of Amaranth, and cows trying to self-immolate, I could help but remember this little gem...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=td4VEGiIQmk

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:23 | 4381325 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

BERLIN (Reuters) - Methane gas from 90 flatulent cows exploded in a German farm shed on Monday, damaging the roof and injuring one of the animals, police said.

High levels of the gas had built up in the structure in the central German town of Rasdorf, then "a static electric charge caused the gas to explode with flashes of flames," the force said in a statement.

One cow was treated for burns, a police spokesman added.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:34 | 4381395 Lux Fiat
Lux Fiat's picture

Years ago, stayed at a Dutch farmer's place while traveling for a couple of days.  The living quarters were upstairs, the barn was the downstairs (dairy cattle, sheep).  Fortunately, it doesn't appear this was the case with the German farm "shed".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LaiJ0mPbbdk

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:38 | 4381413 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Yes, indeed. I read it in the papers today, it was a sidenote.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 20:10 | 4382460 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

This is what happens when you allow cows to smoke. They can't even handle the electric lighters properly.

Stupid cows!

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:23 | 4381311 Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

like a top that slows down wobbles like a motherfucker, we're seeing and will see more bucking bronco style moves in everything as the wheels fall off this fetid pool of excrement that is called "the system."

 

And we know who makes money on volatility. The bitch ass punks who cause it that's who.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:37 | 4381339 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

$NG becoming a great short.  With the bitter cold that just went through, no reports of ng capacity shortages, so I would be selling this retard rally for the report tomorrow. 

The manipulation that is going on smells like suppliers to me.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 18:40 | 4382005 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

My amateurish guess as to why it shot up today is that people just like you have been doing exactly that, every time the temperature has been a little cold, since the first of January.  Every time that the futures have shot up because of the cold, someone or ones have come in the very next day and sold, sold, sold, exactly the same way that silver and gold are sold sold sold with abandon.

 

And if I am not mistaken, there were a few cold folks today who demanded delivery from all those smart people like you who have been selling.

 

If you aint got the gas, unless you have the power to enforce "force majeur" you might just want to think about staying out.  Winter is not over, not by a long shot ... but if the inventory numbers published by the EIA are anything close to accurate, there are going to be major major shortages before the current production starts to come close to the current demand as the weather warms up ... in fact, a few isolated places, like NY and Boston, may experience major power outages ... which could be very, very amusing ....

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 23:03 | 4382937 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

The fundamentals do not support this price level.  No, too many suppliers were trying to sell fwds when then that cold snap came in.  The suppliers just do a few 'gas curtailment s' and blam, the price shoots up to ridiculous levels.  The beauty were the curtailments to the NG generators, which jammed PJM/NYSO prices.  We were wondering if the frequency was getting down to 59.5 hz RTO wide.  Margin calls have been huge for the LSE's in PJM, and I expect smaller LSEs to fold.  Also POLR auctions didn't quite get the draw PA and OH were hoping for as some LSEs didn't show up to bid.  Couple that with NEXTERA announcement of underperformance as year guidance and we have some good times coming.  I expect FERC to announce some sort of investigation into the shenanigans of a few weeks ago.  Expect coal plants to get an extension on the EPA rules.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:38 | 4381037 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

its got a good shot at 6ish - $UNG

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:39 | 4381048 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

jan 2010 - 6.10

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:53 | 4381137 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Big even numbers; they're like sunlight to a vampire. this manipulation is done now; just allow yourself some room and give it a week if possible to prove itself; and then ride it all the way down; never have a profit target; wait and see what it'll give you; markets usually overshoot in the other direction.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 18:42 | 4382025 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

Do you also sell gold short when you don't have any physical yourself?

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:39 | 4381043 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Well...it's a good thing the price of natural gas has no effect on the US economy. 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:51 | 4381079 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Ummm...

crude @ $98

Brent @ $108

Naz gas @ $5.50

nothing to see here...just stagflation as wages nowhere and basics all keep creeping up while assets are hyperinflated

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:39 | 4381044 youngman
youngman's picture

Watch out for cow barns exploding....

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:39 | 4381046 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Long cords of firewood.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:09 | 4381235 Woodhippie
Woodhippie's picture

+100 baby!  I literally just walked back inside from cutting and splitting another cord and read your post. 

Nothing like not having a heating bill in this weather.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:27 | 4381350 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

72 and sunny here. Oh, and no state taxes

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:37 | 4381406 SWCroaker
SWCroaker's picture

I hate you.             Just sayin'

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:41 | 4381051 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Only one of these type of events, where a Too Big Bank somewhere in the world has a highly leveraged bet on the wrong side of the trade, and the dominoes will topple...

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:43 | 4381064 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Markewatch is carrying an article titled Fed Tapering increases Bank Losses; possible exposure to Emergiing Markets, (I would suppose they mean to emerging market banking systems); now might be a good time to remind ourselves that we don't have the kind of banking system that can stand any losses.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:53 | 4381129 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Carry trade.

But hey ... they thank you for giving them your money to play with

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:57 | 4381149 skipjack
skipjack's picture

Who needs this fucking crony fraud-ridden banking system ?

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:41 | 4381052 youngman
youngman's picture

Those public utilities commissions are working overtime to raise prices for the utilities I bet....so long consumer...

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:36 | 4381397 walküre
walküre's picture

consumer confidence? yes?

Because we all know here at ZH that consumers are dying to pay higher prices! Everyone loves paying more so they can feel a part of the RECOVERY!!!

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:40 | 4381054 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Things are looking quite uphill now, hehehe ...

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:42 | 4381058 One And Only
One And Only's picture

That chart looks an awful lot like USD/TRY.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:46 | 4381077 pomlad5
pomlad5's picture

z russians

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:45 | 4381067 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

gotta sell this ...

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:44 | 4381069 maskone909
maskone909's picture

my gas bill last month was 10 dollars.  looks like those were the good ol days

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:56 | 4381148 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Mine was 20x's that, but I can almost see Canada...

I guess that was the good 'ol days for me too...

:(

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:00 | 4381175 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Time to tell the wife to take up knitting. 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:02 | 4381182 maskone909
maskone909's picture

so cal here.  either way its fked we will prob run out of water soon at this rate.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:04 | 4381195 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Water will be an issue for the fracking wells too...So at least we have that going for us.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:15 | 4381269 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

Then you'll be able to burn your water to keep warm.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:49 | 4381473 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

And drink your gas. This is so pneumatic - one just has to love the brave new world we live in ...

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:46 | 4381076 pandabear01
pandabear01's picture

NG will fill most all tanks sooner than later

 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:53 | 4381127 gwar5
gwar5's picture

I like NG but won't higher prices put pressure on Europe for moar war to get MENA pipelines to supply them?

 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:56 | 4381150 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

NG will fill most all tanks sooner than later

That's just basic high school chemistry. A gas will fill any closed tank in which it is placed.

PV = nRT

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ideal_gas_law

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 17:14 | 4381596 Lore
Lore's picture

The Greens have pushed natgas as part of their ideology, but rising prices will put a damper on that. 

Incidentally, that's why Greens generally hate markets.  Markets don't respect their "vision." /sarc

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:45 | 4381081 pandabear01
pandabear01's picture

It's cheap cheap energy

 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:46 | 4381083 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Lot of moving parts in the global necronomy and things are getting messier as complexity unwinds from central planning control. 

 

Matt Drudge tweet from two days ago: "Have an exit plan."

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:46 | 4381084 Cornholiovanderbilt
Cornholiovanderbilt's picture

War on coal and the free shit army has to stay warm.  Natural gas trading is for true gamblers or those of us with meterologists as brothers that are close due to serving together in Iraq ;)

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:47 | 4381085 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

The ability to keep from freezing tied to deriviatives, great.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:48 | 4381091 Frank -THE COIN -
Frank -THE COIN -'s picture

Amaranth and MotherRock were annihilated . In only a couple of weeks by John Arnold.

 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:50 | 4381105 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

No market for old men.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:59 | 4381164 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

why not? go short right now. roll over the Mar. into a further back month in the first week of Mar. hang on to the position keep rolling it back; how much money will you make by the 4th of July? A fortune, that;'s how much. You're not going to live until the fourth of July?

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 17:43 | 4381764 pndr4495
pndr4495's picture

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator had a more than adequate trader named " Old Turkey ", who was an old man.  Age has absolutely ZERO to do with trading - as witnessed most recently with the Icahn/Ackman soap opera.  Fear and Greed affect old and young alike in differing magnitudes.

 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:48 | 4381100 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

did ZH just call the top? 

 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:52 | 4381128 Caracalla
Caracalla's picture

DGAZ looking pretty good right now at 3.60

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:02 | 4381183 tallen
tallen's picture

It's still trading way above it's intrinsic value, check out DGAZ.IV

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:56 | 4381154 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

I sure hope so, my short position needs a little help over here.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:58 | 4381166 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Yes.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:55 | 4381103 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Somone had better have deep pockets, or a Central Bank in one.

Market Stability my Ass. So I guess the SEC is one this, no?  Does anybody have feelings for Japan

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:51 | 4381109 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Must be another polar vortex on the way...

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:50 | 4381116 swass
swass's picture

All this global warming is really causing problems.  We need a mini ice age to warm things up.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 17:18 | 4381617 Lore
Lore's picture

Some IPCC "expert" on the radio a few days ago said the Cooling is caused by the Warming.  Hope that helps.  I'm testing the theory with my kettle and will publish the results after suitable Peer Review.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:51 | 4381120 taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture

 

 

Please be Bank of Montreal.  Please be Bank of Montreal.  Please Please Please....

 

 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:51 | 4381122 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Looks like JPM is gonna get another bonus.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:54 | 4381140 shanearthur
shanearthur's picture

Okay, I didn't know what getting Amaranth'd meant so I read the link to that story. Fascinating, mind-boggling, treacherous stuff that.

So the question is, what company is someone trying to screw, and who is the someone doing the screwing?

 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:55 | 4381144 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

Best news I've had in 2 years!

The problem is delivery, not product supply. 

 

 

 

 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:58 | 4381146 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

On Jan 19, Nat Gas was indicating higher moves

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/natural-gas-weekly-falls-december-sharp...

 

Still below 2010 high around 6.20

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 15:57 | 4381152 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

<-- global warming strikes again. send the squid a check.

<-- jpm needs another bonus, buy myra bonds.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:15 | 4381153 q99x2
q99x2's picture

The NYTimes say the FED is not going to stop until everyone is out of work That should help the price come down.

Looks like once JPMorgue/GS target folds in the interest of national security the price will return.and the US will be safe again.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 19:49 | 4381181 abatis
abatis's picture

Just switch to cow methane, sure lower BTU than NG but just add a few more cows. http://www.utterpower.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/collected-cow-farts...

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:01 | 4381186 muleskinner
muleskinner's picture

SSN is a buy.  Bought some yesterday.  

They have natural gas holdings, have recently completed 3 new wells and will probably triple their sales this year.

They are 3 cents higher on a day that the market is down 160.

Today's recommendation:

Pizza.

 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:07 | 4381189 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Simon Hobbes showing his puckered little mug on CNBC with that tart Kelly Evans.

Santelli and Liesman may have some sparks; panel discussion about the FOMC decision.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:05 | 4381205 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Okay I just sold one Feb. for $5.687; so we'll see how that pans out.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:05 | 4381210 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

Maybe my last sleeping lease will get drilled now.

The price has been so out of whack for so long, this move is no surprise. 

Hopefully it will settle above $4.25 after the blowoff high.

 

 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:57 | 4381509 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Probably not; I think you'll see 3.50 first. prolly need to let your lease sleep for awhile; but what the hey; it's money in the ground.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:16 | 4381276 DavrosoftheDaleks
DavrosoftheDaleks's picture

Gotta point out the "low income" and senior citizen subsidy for some people in Philadelphia.  Some of my elderly clients and neighbors who are "poor" (they have a low taxable income) can get Nat Gas from PGW for a lot cheaper than the market rate.  So where would you put your thermometer if you weren't paying the real price?  HIGH.  I keep my house in the low 60's in the day, but when I help out my neighbors/clients their homes are in the 70's.  I even mention the high temps to them and they point out how their heating bill isn't bad because they signed up for the "low income" program.  WTF?!?! 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:21 | 4381310 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

Uh, welcome to the welfare state.  You may already know that you're paying for your neighbors food (SNAP), health care (Medicare, Medicad, Obamacare), shelter (Section 8, rent controls), and communications (FCC tax).  Why would you be surprised that you are paying for their heating bill too?

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 17:43 | 4381778 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

Here it's called "Warm Hearts".  Subsidy for all the fat ass  unwashed and uselelss bitches who pump out more little cheese eating roaches.

Sorry, mixed translation there.  I meant "single mothers".

I pray for the cleansing fires.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:18 | 4381284 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

They don't call it the widow-maker trade for nothing.  Look for the corpse splayed out on the concrete above a tall buidling.  That should tell you Amaranth'd.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:24 | 4381324 curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

This happened to SEMGROUP in the oil markets back in 2008 as well.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 17:35 | 4381728 pndr4495
pndr4495's picture

Bill Gallacher wrote something to this effect in his book " Winner Take All " - it is far more powerful to know other trader's positions in the market you are trading than to know fundamental conditions or technical conditions about the market itself.  Smells like somebody did some talking out of school.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:24 | 4381331 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

NG is a portable commodity, the debasement authorities have to compete with real people and real cash, they can't suppress the price of everything at one time. 

NG is a soft target, raising its price pushes more solar-from which they collect even more graft.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:42 | 4381438 walküre
walküre's picture

NG is easy to manipulate but the move from NG to solar is a stretch.

The recovery is real. The recovery is real. The recovery is real ...

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:45 | 4381451 Duc888
Duc888's picture

Ya see now, if Obama was a real "thinker" he would rip another EO out of his ass and boost everyones minimum wages to $200 an hour.

 

Then we could all afford this....

 

problem solved.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:45 | 4381456 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

WTI is doing some magical levitation as well.  Smells like 2008 out there right now.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:47 | 4381462 Colorado11
Colorado11's picture

There is a utility has a rogue trader.  Just keeps doubling down.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:50 | 4381477 samsara
samsara's picture

Nothing to do with Supply and Demand.
Nothing to do with a very narrow surplus of storage for the winter.
Nothing to do with Fracking days are over.

Around 2020 it should be fun, Imagine the NE running out of Nat Gas storage?

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:56 | 4381501 adr
adr's picture

Well at least I sold my house before the big jump. My next home is having a wood stove. Forced air furnaces will become a noose around a homeowner's neck. At $7 the average cost to heat a home will be around $250 a month. 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 16:59 | 4381522 stateside
stateside's picture

Plenty of nat gas in the ground.  Problem is no one is drilling for it.  Rigs way down and now it will take 3-6 months for some of these wells that were taken off line to come back up.  Traders will realize you can't just flip a switch and bring back on supply.  This isn't a video game - some will learn the hard way.  Go long firewood as that will be the only alternative for a while.

 

stateside

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 17:09 | 4381571 Colorado11
Colorado11's picture

pipelines are not in place to gather all the ng.  

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 17:19 | 4381634 negative rates
negative rates's picture

I guess MIT should not have let that cold fusion contract get away.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 17:28 | 4381685 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Go natty

It's your birthday

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 17:35 | 4381730 Cornholiovanderbilt
Cornholiovanderbilt's picture

connect the dots.  George Kaiser is one of the top dogs in the NG world and is a HUGE bundler for the dear leadre.  In fact he was behind solyndra.  Do you really think with his puppet in office NG is not going to do well? War on Coal, War on Fracking etc.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 17:38 | 4381736 Cornholiovanderbilt
Cornholiovanderbilt's picture

Semgroup took my trading outfit to the cleaners with there oil calls. Tom kivisito is still a fucking free man just like jon corzine.  In fact, University of Kansas football stadium is Kivisto stadium.  FUCK HIM!

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 17:42 | 4381745 Jungle Jim
Jungle Jim's picture
"[Who ...] Savors no fruit of greener hemispheres:
In arbors uttermost,
In sunset cycles of the sombering years,
He sips an amaranth wine. ..
."


Zothique

Clark Ashton Smith

He who has trod the shadows of Zothique
And looked upon the coal-red sun oblique,
Henceforth returns to no anterior land,
But haunts a later coast
Where cities crumble in the black sea-sand
And dead gods drink the brine.

He who has known the gardens of Zothique
Were bleed the fruits torn by the simorgh's beak,
Savors no fruit of greener hemispheres:
In arbors uttermost,
In sunset cycles of the sombering years,
He sips an amaranth wine.

He who has loved the wild girls of Zothique
Shall not come back a gentler love to seek,
Nor know the vampire's from the lover's kiss:
For him the scarlet ghost
Of Lilith from time's last necropolis
Rears amorous and malign.

He who has sailed in galleys of Zothique
And seen the looming of strange spire and peak,
Must face again the sorcerer-sent typhoon,
And take the steerer's post
On far-poured oceans by the shifted moon
Or the re-shapen Sign.

And I also spotted the misprint in the Lin Carter edition, where "amaranth" has been transposed to "aramanth." Amaranth is definitely the word that Smith wants, since here's the dictionary definition:

amaranth

n. 
1. Any of various annuals of the genus Amaranthus having dense green or reddish clusters of tiny flowers and including several weeds, ornamentals, and food plants. Also called pigweed. 
2. An imaginary flower that never fades. 
3. A deep reddish purple to dark or grayish, purplish red. 
4. A dark red to purple azo dye. 

Also, the simorgh is the dog-headed bird from Persian myth who sometimes lives on Mt. Parnassus.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 17:47 | 4381797 Jungle Jim
Jungle Jim's picture

 

"Also called pigweed." Yeah. I can see that.

Anyhow, in sunset cycles of the sombering years, I sip Keystone Light. Always smooth.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 17:49 | 4381800 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

Just apply the laws of thermodynamics

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 18:13 | 4381898 jtlien
jtlien's picture

Enough gas is flared off in the Backen oil fields to heat every house in Minnessota for a year.    Backen gas is high in natural gas liquids (used to make propane).   Can't get propane now for less than $4.00/gallon if you can get it all.   Where is our Energy Secretary? Probably giving a AGW speech somewhere...  That this gas is being flared is a national disgrace.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 18:13 | 4381901 Catullus
Catullus's picture

Bang the close?

Nah. There are a lot of people short both physical and financial settled gas. Anyone floating next month is going to get rocked.

Want to see the real charts ... Try the city gate prices and the power LMPs all around the east coast. $1000-2000/mwh. Day aheads are murdering some of the large C&I power loads.

Input inflation coming right up.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 18:24 | 4381950 Colorado11
Colorado11's picture

Somebody is going to have a real hard time sitting down tonight. 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 18:52 | 4382071 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

Query:  where is Jon Corzine, bundler extraordinaire?

How can the US Dept. of Justice not be addressing this?  Where is the outrage in our financial 'news' media (see B'berg....) .... anywhere?   he hypothecated client accounts .....

 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 19:41 | 4382319 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

I just to spoke with my friend in NW Wisconsin.  My LP tank there is maxxed out now at 85%.( I don't even live there)  I now have more gas than I will use this year.  I was at 40% on yesterday's short fill.  I tried calling the company I ordered to cut the order in half and confirm price.  Straight to voicemail.

Eight days ago, I was quoted $2.75 a gallon and I said go for it on 250 gallons but that it would take a week to get the product.  I said well, if we are short in supply, we are short, and that is why I am calling early.  I posted this fact on Zerohedge at the time.  Now prices are $5.90 for a gallon as of yesterday and I bought 250 gallons that I didn't really need all of at the moment.  I wonder what they are going to try charge me?  $2.75 a gallon was the deal but I hear that these prices are not being honored now.  I offered to prepay but said they didn't need any money at the time.  Who the hell won't take cash on the barrelhead?  Co-ops perhaps?  I can't wait to see the bill that I am not paying.  Strike price was $2.75 per gallon and cash up front.  Done deal right?  The agreed upon price is what I am paying and not a penny more.

My friend had some urgency in his voice as said no one has any gas for sale right now.  Some small businesses and some families do not have any gas at all and their pipes will freeze.  I have some brand new 20 lb cylinders that are full in the garage there for emergency purposes.  I told my friend to take them if he knows that someone needs them to get by.  Everyone wondered why I had so many cylinders... well, now you fucking know. 

I am not sure what else I can do.  Yes, I should profit from this but it is not funny to me.  Profit on silver is one thing but profit on freezing people out of their homes is another.  Fuck that shit.              

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 22:50 | 4382917 TheCosmicTaco
TheCosmicTaco's picture

Hey, I thought gas was supposed to be coming DOWN in price! Start freaking frikkin fracking more, somebody. This inflation shit has gone on long enough.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 00:24 | 4383151 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Wish I had checked in to thei one earlier...

THe ignorance of the hydrocarbon market is appalling...

The US is currently exporting propane from the Gulf coast (~400 mbdp) because there is no infrastructure to move it to where is demanded domestically...

Stocks are at 5 year lows...

http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_propane.html

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 00:43 | 4383186 Colorado11
Colorado11's picture

5.50 is for quiters.  The squeeze will continue until the rotten egg smell is taken out of nat gas.  

 

10.00 nat gas would sure make everyone forget about obummercare.

 

 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!