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522 Days (And Counting) Without A 20% Correction...

Tyler Durden's picture




 

"Just one more roll of the dice...?"

 

 

Source: Gavekal

 

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Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:36 | 4385885 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

Let it ride...

 

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:39 | 4385891 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

Looks like it could be 2500 more to go

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:37 | 4385887 Firing Pin
Firing Pin's picture

Wow. A completely fraudulent and fixed market hasn't had a 20% correction. YAWN. 

 

More importantly, WHO CARES?

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:41 | 4385901 endorush
endorush's picture

how is it fraudulent? 

the economy is slowly getting better day by day and the market is reflecting that. 

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:48 | 4385914 Charles Nelson ...
Charles Nelson Reilly's picture

Oh good.... Who knew CNBC was right all along?

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:50 | 4385928 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

Watch what these Americans have to say about the current SOTU, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nirnIV5pfs#t=169

Who cares about market corrections when your belly is growling.

DaddyO

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:18 | 4385926 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

how is it fraudulent?

Every US economic statistic is manipulated to suit the markets.

How does the US deliver such outstanding GDP growth with a labor participation rate that is the lowest since 1978?

The answer is simple. Just manipulate the inflation rate lower and you get higher GDP.

The US Bureau of labor Statistics uses a variety of techniques including hedonics and substitution to manipulate the inflation rate lower. So if the price of cars has gone up by say, 10%, then one can attribute 70% of the increase due to improved quality and so the inflation rate for cars falls from 10% to 3%. The GDP rises by the 7% hedonic adjustment of the price of the car.  This technique is especially potent for computers since their speed and storage capacity increase a lot every year. Some quarters, 80% of US GDP growth was due to hedonic adjustment of computer prices.

So this US GDP growth is just a mirage manufactured by mendacious managers of the US economy.

Shadowstats has alternate inflation charts which show US inflation 3% to 6% higher. This means that real growth in the US economy has been zero or negative for quite a while. And the labor participation rate reflects that reality:

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

labor participation rate chart:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CIVPART/

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:11 | 4385989 Wait What
Wait What's picture

bwaaa haaa haaa ha!!! keep drinking that kool-aid endo. that must be sum good purple drank you got there.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:19 | 4386012 HulkHogan
HulkHogan's picture

...and it tastes like purple too.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:32 | 4386034 endorush
endorush's picture

i don't eat my money but if it taste as good as it feels making it i bet it'd taste good

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 04:30 | 4387059 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

"the economy is slowly getting better day by day and the market is reflecting that. "

actually, day by day, the labor participation rate keeps falling as more people lose their jobs, the quality of jobs keeps dropping (lower-paying and part time jobs replacing full time ones), the nation keeps getting deeper and deeper into debt, more and more people are getting food stamps and government handouts to get by, the dollar is losing its reserve currency status, being replaced by china, shall i go on?

what planet are you on, exactly, when you claim the economy is getting better day by day? how did you come to that conclusion?

 

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:12 | 4385991 Overfed
Overfed's picture

I think ya' fergot yer /sarc tag.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 21:47 | 4386285 yepyep
yepyep's picture

lol greenshoots of recovery everywhere

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 01:52 | 4386854 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Green shoots! Green shoots nigga! 

 

-Barack Hussein Obama

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:08 | 4385975 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

I care because a 20% correction would drive the pumping to $150 billion per month and move interest rates to historic lows. I want to lock in a few new mortgages before a smidge of reality cracks the facade once again.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:39 | 4385888 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Good time to consider selling, fishez.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:39 | 4385890 RSloane
RSloane's picture

What roll of the dice? The S&P has been guaranteed.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:39 | 4385895 Truther
Truther's picture

Correctomundo.... Hell is about to break loose

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:40 | 4385897 endorush
endorush's picture

lot's of cheap stock for sale this morning.  my portfolio is up 4% today.  the selling over the last week is WAY overdone.  you guys are missing out on the action. i'm too busy making money to care about your negativity.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:46 | 4385907 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

You do care.  If you didn't, you wouldn't be posting here.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:56 | 4385946 endorush
endorush's picture

i read Zerohedge every day, every article, every comment, and I consider myself part of the community.  my goal is to GET MONEY!!!

too many people here put their money on what they believe to be morally correct instead of putting their money on what's MAKING MONEY!!!

the doomsday profecy yall are preaching might be correct in the long-run, but it didn't make you money today, and it might not make you money in the future. today it did the opposite.

yall call the people making money "sheeple" as if you're somehow smarter by not making money.

yall need to get with the program.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:04 | 4385967 NeedleDickTheBu...
NeedleDickTheBugFucker's picture

GET MONEY!

MAKING MONEY!

Sounds like you are a Cramer disciple.  I think you might find more like-minded people on the Seeking Alpha website.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:19 | 4386001 Wait What
Wait What's picture

Needle, you can't talk to guys on that purple drank. they just don't listen. look at Bieber. "mo money! mo money! mo money!!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1XCf9gEu7E

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:17 | 4386003 endorush
endorush's picture

I love Seeking Alpha, and the information from Seeking Alpha has made me LOTS of money.

I DO like Zerohedge, it is a great contrarian indicator.  Zerohedge tends to always bet against the money, so betting against Zerohedge is a good way to make money.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 05:40 | 4387091 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

i hear the exits are gonna be pretty cramped as it is....good luck getting out with that huge head of yours

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:13 | 4385993 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

BOO YAH !!!

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:14 | 4385995 Firing Pin
Firing Pin's picture

Yes, because I'm "sure" none of the gold and silver bugs on here bought when gold was $250 or silver $4.  Or the Bitcoin proponents at $30 or lower. Or people that buy ammo and guns and crushed it last year on that investment. Please ASSume some more...

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:23 | 4386022 endorush
endorush's picture

zerohedge didn't even exist when gold was $900 nevermind $250.

i read zerohedge every day and find the information useful, but anybody who's invested based on the sentiment of this site has lost LOTS of money. fact.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:42 | 4386068 malek
malek's picture

Then how come I bought gold for $880 while reading ZH?

Even as a shill you should get your most basic facts rights.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 21:01 | 4386131 endorush
endorush's picture

gold was above 900 when ZH went live, and dropped toward 800 for about 2 weeks.  CONGRATULATION!!!! you bought at the bottom (so you clain) and still made less money over the last 5 years than investing in the SP500 made over the last 1 year.

and we both know you probably looked at the chart to cherry-pick the price you mentioned because you hate to admit that i'm right.

 

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 21:50 | 4386289 malek
malek's picture

I was mostly able to preserve the purchasing power of my wealth when discounting by the real inflation rate (Shadowstats) over the last 5 years, thanks for asking.

Believe whatever you want to believe - I'm happy to report my gold averaged buying price is still less than the recent lows, even though I did buy some at $1600+
Golds best days are still ahead in all likelihood.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 21:20 | 4386209 Firing Pin
Firing Pin's picture

You never made the case that ZH existed when it's readers bought gold, silver, ammo, bitcoin, etc. So all of us savvy investors were clueless in the markets until ZH came online and only then bought gold?

Urban youth, please. 

 

You're embarrassing yourself. 

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:40 | 4386059 malek
malek's picture

You sound like someone desperately in need of getting appreciation by others.

Making money can only fill that void for you so far, you know.
Enjoy making money, while ignoring the bigger picture or actively hasting the demise of the (moral) system. And watch out that morally even more incorrect than you folks don't take yours - we're not going to defend you.

"The only way to win is not to play" (the game of making more money by all means.)

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 21:04 | 4386149 endorush
endorush's picture

lol... sure pretend that losing money makes you happy

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 21:23 | 4386216 Firing Pin
Firing Pin's picture

I'm sure you're a big hitter. Please, tell us what new Toyota you bought this year when you "closed your biggest deal." I've learned in life that people who claim to have a lot of money or to make a lot of money are usually poor or middle class at best. You're no big hitter. You're a wannabe.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:58 | 4385949 chump666
chump666's picture

I wouldn't be buying dips, but reducing exposure.  No correction yet.  But an all out crash.  The FED tried the central planned, priced fixed commie experiment with Wall Street cronynism on top...and we know how that ended. 

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:43 | 4386073 vulcanraven
vulcanraven's picture

"I'm too busy making money to care about your negativity."

So busy making money, he has time to stop by the Hedge and fart out uninformative drivel.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 21:10 | 4386169 endorush
endorush's picture

I even had time to buy a porsche with all the money i been making.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 08:33 | 4387261 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Nice BOV.  LOL!

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 21:11 | 4386171 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

Your ambition must be small to brag about 4% on the ZH wall.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:39 | 4385898 darteaus
darteaus's picture

"Leave it all on black."

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:44 | 4385899 One And Only
One And Only's picture

And it's been 1,836 days and 7 hours since we've had a president with fascistic and dictatorial tendencies.

We're a country being led by the blind (or corrupt) and we are a society that is completely lacking in the most basic of morals.

America is a rotting cesspool of shit.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:46 | 4385911 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

That is an insult to rotting cesspools of shit the world over.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:50 | 4385924 jomama
jomama's picture

try 18,682 days.  (November 22, 1963)

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:18 | 4386009 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Not far enough back, since only a fascist would send Salinger out to comer the market for his personal enjoyment before using the executive authority to unilaterally enact laws for the little people (amongst a host of other crimes).

Minimum 19,369 days (he also has some issues, but at least he warned about the creep of fascism)

But if we set the bar at "beyond a reasonable doubt" it's been 31,014 days since Coolidge left office.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:48 | 4386083 Overfed
Overfed's picture

JF Kennedy actually authored an article expounding the importance of the 2nd amendment. Seems like it ran in Guns magazine in the late 50s or early 60s.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:34 | 4386040 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Yup. Last Prez who actually gave a fuck about America, it's people, and the Constitution. We saw what happened to him. To be fair,  I think Reagan could have been great,  but pappy Bush and the CIA sent him a pretty clear message there in '81.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:26 | 4386024 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

re you kidding me? Like Bush was any less of a facist than Obama?  I'm tired of this fascism BS  -Mussolini and Hitler were far better than what we have. At least their Fascism/National Socialism was designed in large part to benefit their people  -rather than Zionist Banksters. 

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 03:43 | 4387029 Sinnedi
Sinnedi's picture

Replace Zionist with illuminated ones who have a bloodline since well forever and you would be right

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:46 | 4385905 endorush
endorush's picture

gold is down 2%+, my portfolio of STOCKS is up 4%+

sorry i enjoy MAKING money.  you guys must enjoy doing throwing it away.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:48 | 4385915 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

You sound like a douche.  Am I close?

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:36 | 4386048 mutty
mutty's picture

yep. And bragging about winnings is usually a forward looking indicator, to a financial failure.

It's actually human nature to brag and then to screw up badly.

"Don't talk about your trades, Dipshit" - anonymous

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:51 | 4385932 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Well I suppose we need to find out what you mean by "money" if we want to know what you mean by "making money." Of course I imagine you mean Federal Reserve Notes. Are you aware that some people are allowed to create extra Federal Reserve Notes for themselves? And do you really want to use such an instrument to value your holdings?
Anyways it appears to me that you may be very unclear on the financial concept if "numeraire."

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:08 | 4385976 endorush
endorush's picture

yall talk about FRN's like they're worthless. they're not.  they're worth whatever they can be sold for, and today those "worthless" FRN's made me 4%.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:44 | 4386076 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

Ah let's see, the FRN has seen an erosion in value of approximately 97% in the last 100 years...

Now that's real value and staying power.

Keep it up grasshopper and when you can snatch the gold coin from my hand...

DaddyO

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 21:05 | 4386157 endorush
endorush's picture

and gold has lost like %40 in 2.25 years.... smoke on that shit grasshopper

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:13 | 4385999 wiseindian
wiseindian's picture

I'm a strong believer in precious metals but I'm not going to call you names just because you look down on gold. Let's be objective. To each his own. So with that boundary set:

First thing - universally manipulated markets aside, physical gold typically isn't traded by gold bugs like stocks are traded by stock traders such as yourself. If someone thinks phyiscal gold is a day trade then yes they're at the mercy of the paper gold price manipulators and yes they would be 2% down and are better off going to another manipulated market. Physical gold is an anti-fiat purchase and a way to not watch your cash go poof some day. So don't compare it to stocks. If anything, compare it to a wad of paper that the government printed. That wad of printed paper (of any country) consistently loses value on an hourly basis so clearly no 4%+ return there.

Second thing - most people who own physical gold decide to hold onto it, some even keep it for decades. Their main reasons are typically security from banks/manipulators-in-chiefs. and global currency-independent portability and transferrability. I doubt you do that with your 4%+ stock portfolio. So again, a disparate comparison on your part. The paper gold manipulation, frustrating as it is, does not deter gold buyers from owning the metal. It never will. Why? Because a bar of bullion (again that comparison to cash rather than stocks comes back) is something I can put in my pocket, fly 18 hours to Thailand, sell it locally and buy a used car. And I can do that on the day the stock market crashes, on the day the government topples, on the day the banks are shut, on a day the internet is down, whatever it may be, I can still do that with a bar of bullion. 

If I walked up to you and said, "I flipped a home and made 10%+ yesterday, you only made 4%+ in stocks therefore you're an idiot"...it is a highly unintellectual statement comparing two investment vehicles that have different approaches and different reasons for investors to be in (regardless of the fact that all markets are manipulated).

Now that was the end of the objectivity.

My personal opinion is - overall try not to sound like an idiot troll and glad you made 4%+ on your stocks. That's not why I buy gold. In fact a down day in gold is a buying opportunity and most gold bugs actually are happy about it. 

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:24 | 4386018 forwardho
forwardho's picture

.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:23 | 4386020 forwardho
forwardho's picture

Very well said sir.

Comparing apples to oranges is a fruitless persuit.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:45 | 4386082 endorush
endorush's picture

I appreciate your civilized response, honestly.

I have no problem with gold, I actally own gold (if SHTF, I own some gold as an insurance policy to fall back on).

If SHTF, I have enough gold to handle my bidness and bribe some politicians i know to get in on the good life if the USD goes to zero.

but in the mean time, FRN's still can purchase gold, so if gold is valuebal, then than means FRN's are too.  More FRN's in my account is more gold i can by if i choose to.  It;s more wealth.

I just don't get why yall hate on people who use the stock market to generate wealth?

I can exchange my money for plastic chips at a poker table, then double my plastic chips and trade it back for double my money. i dont care 2 shyts about them plastic chips...

I'm just makin money, and too many people here seem to hate on that, call me evil cuz im makin money on the opposite side of what is considered "moral" here.

Like I said i read here all the time, im just sayin the bottom line is all i care about, nothing personal at all.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 21:01 | 4386140 wiseindian
wiseindian's picture

I don't think people here hate on people who use the stock market to generate wealth. In fact a lot of gold bugs actually are just like you...they DO have trading positions that have nothing to do with precious metals at all ! What they'll likely hate on you for is if you tell them to believe in the markets or the FRN not being used by people of power to legally or illegally grossly manipulate outcomes as seen fit. So I think if you callled a spade a spade, then yes ZHers are happy to agree with you ..let's all make money! If you read ZH a lot then you know of all the calls to BTFD, BTFATH, do this pre-FOMC, do that post-FOMC. Some of these are /sarc but most of them are likely actually following through and making/losing money but nevertheless still happpy to trade with the goal of generating personal wealth. So in all likelihood - you've probably got a ton of company on ZH. With one possible difference...

What I think a lot of ZHers want to be crystal clear about is that money making and wealth generation aside, world markets are rotten to the core (thanks to the Feds, algos, bots, whatever else), governance and regulations are decided by those who have the money and staffers to write those very policies and there are absolutely no ramifications given the staggering degree and extent of manipulation and skew.

I think if you made 4%+ in this market then all the power to you and hell we'll even drink to that, but if you told ZHers to actually "believe" in the markets, policy makers and the Federal Reserve then no they will absolutely not agree with you.

:-)

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 21:07 | 4386161 endorush
endorush's picture

that's fair.

I don't want anybody to believe in anything, just believe in the wealth you can make from it.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 06:03 | 4387108 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

decent people dont want to make money in a moral vacuum. Because, if you live in a moral vacuum (like we do in todays 'market') any wealth that you have accumulated through hard work and clever observation may vanish at the hands of theives without recourse.

I dont care to make money in an environment where i know people are being deliberately and consistently lied to. Because i am thereby participating in a system that may one day leave me destitute and without justice.

this isnt a joke. its about real lives and the prosperity of real people and the families that depend on them. I'm not sure if you're aware, but you've been coming across in your posts like those gambling capitalists who do think its all a joke and fuck the consequences of however it is that you happen make money.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:27 | 4386025 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

Endo,

Someones gonna make you eat that currency, money is the collateral for the certificate you mistakenly call "money"...smart ass.

 

:)

RIPS

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:42 | 4386066 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

Endo has been here long enough to know what the score is.

It appears to be a troll just posting to elicit a fightclub response.

DaddyO

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:49 | 4386087 endorush
endorush's picture

you're right, i am eating those profits... grilled salmon tastes great so i guess i'm enjoying every penny :)

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:56 | 4386114 Charles Nelson ...
Charles Nelson Reilly's picture

Is that you Kenny Powers?

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:46 | 4385913 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Great, you just posted up a chart that made my nostalgic for the 90s.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:50 | 4385927 q99x2
q99x2's picture

BTFD That's all you need to know.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:52 | 4386103 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

And the deeper the dip, the more you should buy.  If you do no want to take the risk, just buy call options on every significant dip.  That strategy has worked well.

Manipulated markets are so predictable.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:52 | 4385930 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

There will never be another 20% correction.  Buy now or be priced out forever.

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 19:53 | 4385934 HeavydutyMexica...
HeavydutyMexicanOfTheNorthernKingdom's picture

I just hope they can keep levitating this thing for at least 3 more years.  2 apmex orders/month X 36 months = 72 orders of beautiful Libertads.  Orale Yellen...pump it up mama!  

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:10 | 4385958 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

America cannot be an empire (900 bases in 130 countries per Ron Paul) without the wealth effect of a surging stock market.

So if the NSA can spend $75 billion a year spying on the world, surely the Fed can spend several times that amount levitating the markets.  The US defense budget is about $1000 billion a year. The next time the US stock markets (or bond markets or real estate)  lose 20% to 40%, the American empire comes crashing down.

Unless you are inclined to be suicidal, do not bet against manipulated markets.  Or the imminent demise of an empire.  Both will happen. But you can go broke in the interim.

While everyone knows that the defense budget is large -- even in the numbers that the public sees as the formally admitted figures by the Department of Defense -- the truth is that when one scratches beneath the bureaucratic veneer, national security spending is much larger, nearly double the amount US citizens are told.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/02/the-real-defense-bud...

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:10 | 4385982 freefdawatchlist2
freefdawatchlist2's picture

Its because of unlimited printing by central banks. The day they stop this market will drop 50% in no time.

http://stocktwits.com/message/19380780

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:31 | 4386032 freefdawatchlist2
freefdawatchlist2's picture

Here is more detail chart why there is no correction, Federal reserve is printing like crazy. its printed  0.10% in 1 week. Total asset is now at 4.102 T

goo.gl/fb/kljjV

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:31 | 4386033 freefdawatchlist2
freefdawatchlist2's picture

Here is more detail chart why there is no correction, Federal reserve is printing like crazy. its printed  0.10% in 1 week. Total asset is now at 4.102 T

goo.gl/fb/kljjV

Thu, 01/30/2014 - 20:52 | 4386092 Carl Popper
Carl Popper's picture

We fall into the deflationary black hole or have a crack up boom if Mr. Yellen loses control. Situation still too unstable for true price discovery. People might lose confidence and start asking uncomfortable questions.

Must.....never.......fall......more.....than......ten......percent.

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