Baltic Dry Index Collapses 50% From December Highs To 5-Month Lows

Tyler Durden's picture

We are sure it's just a storm in a teacup; just a brief interlude before the IMF's ever-changing forecast for global trade growth picks right back up again and demand to ship dry goods surges back to the inventory stuffed levels of Q4. But, for now, the Baltic Dry Index (admired when it's rising, ignored when it drops) has collapsed by over 50% from its December highs and is back to August lows.




Charts: Bloomberg

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buckethead's picture

I blame the Polar Vortex, and the Polar VortexII... And Teh Taper

TheGoldMyth's picture

The other way around. The baltic dry index drop is analagous to a sharp drop in CO2 emissions, or indicates the use of the fossil fuel (Coal) is decreasing which causes the weather to cool down and the polar vortex and global cooling according to the adherents of CO2 climate science.

As further proof, this coincided with an ice breaker (Ship) that was trapped in antarctic ice completely filled with climate scientists (Australia manufactures vast quantities of climate scientists), around fifty of them on this ocassion. Had any one of them checked the batlic dry index before departing, they could have anticipated the increasing Antarctic sea ice.

Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

um - while the baldry can be a bell-weather (sorry for the weather analogy excuses) for economic collapse - doesnt this just indicate reversion to seasonal mean given the rise in traffic pre-xmas?

Crash Overide's picture

<-- The economy sucks...?

<-- Due to global warming arctic sea ice is up 60% which in turn has closed the north west passage therefor rendering those shipping lanes none navigational causing a 50% drop in the ability to deliver goods? lol

AbelCatalyst's picture

Show a 5 year chart and this drop is not all that significant.  In early '10, '11, '12 there were similar drops...  Early 2013 was an anomoly and the spike at the end of 2013 was the only spike for the entire year...  To me the 2013 flatline trend is far more significant...  The lack of noise up and down is a very big deal... Things are cooling down, deflation is setting in and the economic winter season is coming quickly...  Bundle up ZH'ers!!

Occident Mortal's picture

This is true.


In 2008 the Baltic Dry was over 11,000.


Shipping is about 1/10th the cost of what it was before the crisis.

quasimodo's picture

Shipping might be a fraction of what is was, but I sure as hell can't put that in the bank

OutLookingIn's picture

Yes. On the BDI 5 year chart, the recent (December 13) double peak spike, was the first time the index has climbed above its 200 DMA since the crash of 08! The long term 5+ years trend is still fully in force. As for the old 'red herring' of over-supply of ships - latest figures show this not to be the case, as the peak in ship breaking of older inefficent vessles has run its course and new order contracts signed in better times, have been delivered.

Welcome to the "New Normal"!  

toadold's picture

I'm seeing a lot of articles saying that deflation will hit frist, hardest, and fastest. Attempts to print money on no growth economies won't work? 

MFLTucson's picture

So we have a great recovery as told to the American Sheep by the Kenyan snake oil salesman and no goods are being shipped?  haha

SDShack's picture

Recovery Summer 6.0 is coming. Just like the previous 5 years.

TeamDepends's picture

Shipping "dry goods" is so 1830, we do everything electronically now, in the blink of an eye!

MFLTucson's picture

Shipping "dry goods" is so 1830, we do everything electronically now, in the blink of an eye!


Is that so?  You have no idea what you are talking about.  Dry good include food, manufacgted items etc.  Read up before you post such a ridiculos comment.  Explain to us how you get goods from point A to point B with the blink of an eye?

PartysOver's picture

MFLTucson,  I think TeamDepends post was a little tongue-in-cheek sarcasm.   Unbunch you shorts.  And breathe.

slotmouth's picture

You are a slobbering idiot.

kridkrid's picture

When you stole that cow and your friend tried to make it with that cow... I wanna party with you, cowboy.

Save_America1st's picture

C'mon man, didn't you know we've had Star Trek-style teleportation systems since the 1960's???

Dude (MFLTucson)'s called "sarcasm", obviously the comment was intended to be facetious.  Maybe you just haven't woken up yet this morning with your teleported coffee fresh picked and perked from Costa Rica!  It only takes the blink of a eye!  lol

MontgomeryScott's picture

OCH! Th' coffee transporter pad shorted out again! It'll take 15 minutes to fix it, d'ya ken?

I CANNA' CHANGE THE LAWS OF PHYSICS! By then, the whole BDI might be sucked in to the solar, um, polar vortex...

Save_America1st's picture

We need that coffee transporter functioning NOW, Mr. Scott!  Can you give it more POWER??!!!  If we can't get MFLTucson his coffee, that cranky Klingon is going to start a galactic war with the Baltric Dry Federation!!!

C'mon, Scotty!!!  We need more power, can do it!!!

TuPhat's picture

I need more global warming.  This has been a very cold winter.  Can the transporter beam me some warmer air?

SunnyDD's picture


Your coffee transporter is functioning,

I just front-run you with a short wire.





SDShack's picture

Scotty, the coffee transporter is out! Quick, divert ALL emergency power to the coffee maker! Prepare to transport coffee using shuttle craft.

Headbanger's picture

Oh no.. Please keep going cause we need some laughs here on "Friday" morning (in Siberia)

Notarocketscientist's picture

Must be the 3D printing impact eh

glaucon was right's picture

The endgame is getting closer and closer.

kridkrid's picture

I've been saying that since 1993. I've been emphatic since 2008.

Sudden Debt's picture

21 years in a row... like watching paint dry :)

KickIce's picture

Some ZHer said it before, death by a thousand paper cuts.

glaucon was right's picture

Eh, I have to find another hobby than.

BandGap's picture

Uh, the game started a while back. We're in the second quarter now, all knotted up at 0-0.

Sudden Debt's picture

Bernie? No he's not dead! He's just drunk!

Winston Churchill's picture

Just needs that final bowel evacuation before we tuck him in the coffin.

B2u's picture

Can't I just get a 3D printer for everything?

Crash Overide's picture

"Can't I just get a 3D printer for everything?"


Don't forget robots...   Oh wait, 3D printers are robots.

Sudden Debt's picture

It'll take about 3 more months before we see this effect in the real economy, so nothing to worry about.

In today's economy people don't really need physical goods to sell and make product.

See this invisible microwave oven? Yes? 350$ and it's your's! And I'll give a this invisible remote that works with it!

RabbitChow's picture

Do you take invisible cash?  Oh wait....

_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

Check 2011. It happened before.

I agree though that things are hitting the fan right now.

CitizenPete's picture

Sea ice issues. a.k.a. It's the WEATHER

JOHNICON's picture

Doomers grasping at straws.  Why do you guys keep harping on this index that has absolutely no predictive value?  Oh, right, because you all bankrupted yourselves over the last five years by betting against the trend.  But, hey, at least you'll be "proved right" in the end.

kridkrid's picture

It's a funny spot to be in. Knowing that you're right... being able to articulate why you are... able to defend your position against anyone, able to explain, in hindsight, why the reset has not yet happened while explaining why action X, Y or Z has not solved a thing, only prolonged the inevitable... yet here we are. Add to the irony... I don't want to be right... My relatively comfortable life is, well, relatively comfortable.

mijev's picture

Wow thanks for your wonderful insight and your personal financial predictions. I wonder what the earth did wrong to throw up ignorant cunts like you. 

JOHNICON's picture

You're welcome.  I'm only trying to point out, in as sarcastic a way as possible, that this index is absolutely useless.  It should be clear by now, given the number of articles on ZH since 2009 gasping in wonderment at the possibility of a full on economic meltdown everytime there's a collapse in the BDI.  The collapse happens every year and every year there are breathless predictions on this site of how the s**t's about to hit the fan. doesn't happen.  Yet I bet there are a number of people who read this site who have based a portion of their investment decisions on articles like this.  That's not ZH's fault but I find it encouraging that I received so many down votes.

Crash Overide's picture

It keeps coming until the day it stops.