No, The Plunge In Home Sales Was "Not" Due To Cold Weather

Tyler Durden's picture

This morning's utter collapse in pending home sales - a 6-sigma miss by 'economists' unaware that it was cold in December - has been ushered away on the back of "weather" reasoning. However, a glance at the chart below confirms this is total bullshit. As Goldman Sachs admits "broad-based declines by region suggest that colder-than-average weather was likely not the primary driver."

(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer )

Via Goldman Sachs,

Pending home sales dropped 8.7% in December (vs. consensus -0.3%), the largest decline since the expiration of the first-time homebuyer tax credit in 2010. Sales declined in the Northeast (-10.3%), West (-9.8%), South (-8.8%), and Midwest (-6.8%).


The broad-based declines by region suggest that colder-than-average weather was likely not the primary driver, given slightly warmer-than-average temperatures on the Pacific coast in December.


Although a noisy series, the December weakness in pending home sales is an unfavorable indicator for near-term existing home sales, and follows disappointing new home sales already released for the month.

So, if it wasn't the weather... could it be that fast-money has left the bubble and what is left of the real-money mortgage-paying homebuyers are all that remains?

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TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Maybe it was because of the rising turkish yeilds... or, erm, its Bush's fault!

fonestar's picture

The housing recovery has got the Milli Vanilli blues....


"I guess we can blame it on the rain"

kliguy38's picture

Yup.....that blizzard in California just about finished off all the prospective wuz a doooozy

imapopulistnow's picture

Can't afford a house working 29.5 hours a week.

devo's picture

With 10% inflation, no less.

Levadiakos's picture

Listen. with better weather it would have been a maceration

Bryan's picture

You know, one would think that the general public would FINALLY get the hint that they are being lied to and begin to doubt the spun numbers and commentary coming out of talking heads.  But no!  Many seem to lap it up like little puppies and regurgitate it to their audiences, who then regurgitate it to their friends and so on... and we just keep digging the hole deeper and pretending it's not actually a hole after all.  It's like playing this giant game of "Gossip" with the politicians starting the rumor.

kchrisc's picture

What lies?! DWTS and Honey Boo Boo come on when they say it will. All is well.

ronincap's picture

The spin doctors have to keep the neternal hope machine running at 100% even though the wheels just fell off

101 years and counting's picture

holy shit.  someone actually realized the "polar vortex" did not happen in Dec?  thats great research that i released about 5 hours ago....

CrashisOptimistic's picture



That's 1960s levels with 50 million more people in the country.

o2sd's picture

According to your chart the recession ended in 2009.


Jack Burton's picture

I've grown to love the "weather" excuse for every drop in an economic indicator. As if life somehow comes to a halt with hot weather, cold weather, rainy weather or snowy weather strikes. Economic statistics in the USA are on a par with the old Soviet economic figures of the late great USSR. They are political in nature, not economic indicators for planning or investment purposes. America, like Stalin's USSR, now sees everything in the political sense, we can no longer even ask the right questions in the USA, because things are judged politically and not realistically. Stalin's system has become more and more the AMerican system. If you doubt this, then look at the spy state, a state of total spying on everyone that Stalin would have been green with envy to have been able to impose the the Soviet People.

SAT 800's picture

Yeah, well, I'm sure it was entirely due to Global Warming. On another note; I bought back my S&P500 contracts last night at 1774; basis Mar. and put the money on the new Natural Gas Short; which started making money right away; so now I'm 300$ per penny short on Mar. Nat. Gas; and have taken the $13,000 off the table from the stock market short; moving along to the next sure thing.

SAT 800's picture

If you're following this series of posts intended to teach how to make money in the futures market; you might wonder, am I a Natural Gas expert? No. I know absolutely nothing about Natural Gas; I never even look at the price charts for it; it was Zero Hedge that presented the chart showing the completed manipulation process with the vertical element on top; that's about all I'm interested in; going along with the profit takers. I know the energy complex is frequently subject to manipulation; and when I checked out the charts for Nat. Gas. the front months were crazy higher than the back months; enough time had gone by to complete the upswing process, and it looked like a typical blow out top; and it's making money, fast. The nice thing about this compared to the Stock Market, which was showing signs of support around 1775 'ish; is that there isn't any reason it can't go all the way back to $4.35; which would be nice.

GooseShtepping Moron's picture

I fully agree. As I noted earlier to little fanfare, Americanism is simply low-church Communism (although we are currently experiencing a transient upsurge in "piety") and Russia has spread her errors throughout the world.

TheReplacement's picture

If "Americanism" is looking like any-kind-of-communism then it is not Americanism in truth.

Levadiakos's picture

Wow, amazing! He really does look like a young Bob Dylan!

ArkansasAngie's picture

Fast money is fast money
Blink and it's gone
Oh Yellem!!
Whatcha gonna do about it

Colonel Klink's picture

We all know they LIE about anything bad and trump up the good news.  Obamas policies are failing by design and the media is complicit with their propaganda.

corporatewhore's picture

 it isn't just O's fault but the entire government and their attitude about us serfs.  They've been making up bullshit forever.

"Mission Accomplished"

Panem et Circus's picture

Bush and Obama, same path different velocities. The only difference between Team Red and Team Blue is velocity, neither leads towards more freedom for the individual.

corporatewhore's picture

if only more grasped that simple idea.  and looking at 2016 it continues to be a horrendous upcoming dilemma

Spastica Rex's picture

Here in Warshington State (The "r" is silent), early December was cold. Since then, it's been very mild. And very dry.

Vooter's picture

"Since then, it's been very mild. And very dry."

Hey, don't kid yourself--it's very easy to get distracted by dry, mild weather and then completely forget that you're supposed to be out looking for a new house. In fact, I would guess that the dry, mild weather is exactly why housing sales are down in the Pacific Northwest...

Levadiakos's picture

He's just another tea party snot not buying homes in an attempt to harm Obama

Spastica Rex's picture

If it only it were that easy.

I would be a revolutionary!

Stoploss's picture

Hey, rates haven't gone up much either.






Ness.'s picture

I guess I'm living during the wrong century, because nowadays it's cold in Chicago during the winter months.


"Dumb luck, that."

jballz's picture

That's not dumb luck, you fool, that's the Global Warming getting worse!!!

Ness.'s picture

Look up - you'll see my post flying over your head.

corporatewhore's picture

the drop in sales is due to the following:

1. I'm out of a job and looking for a replacement

2. My replacement job is at 25-50% below what I made before

3. I filed bankruptcy because I no longer have the income I've had for 30 years

4. My corporation dropped my health insurance and the kids colleges are sending "payment overdue" notices

5. My home is currently been on the market for six months and I've no offers

6. All of the above

lotsoffun's picture

corporatewhore - brother, you need to get in on the recovery!!  (sarc).


corporatewhore's picture

at my age recovery isn't happening.  i'm thankful just to wake up in the morning

I just saw that the channel autostuffing now has a 100 supply to complement home sales.


greatbeard's picture

>> at my age recovery isn't happening.

Realizing that is half the battle.  I feel much better since I gave up.

tawdzilla's picture

I don't think the weather was as much of a problem last December.  The main problem was the spike in the the number of people who had hangnails on their pinky toes and ingrown nose hairs (concurrently.)

denverdolomte's picture

When is 1600 Penn. Ave going up for sale? 

W74's picture

Christmas Day 1913?

Or was that the capitol building?  Not sure since I get my real estate mixed up all the time and both have great views of a 555 ft. phallus rising from the marsh.

Kobe Beef's picture

Vatican City, City of London, Washington DC... funny where those obelisks pop up. hmm..

conspicio's picture

Well, duh. Of course it is not "the weather." It is "the racist klucker Bush Reagan Palin Republican ass backwards prolife religious gun toting freakshow angry white" that caused this.

There, fixed it for the progressive cvnts who throw this sh1t out for public consumption. After all, this is what they really meant to say caused it. Because Mulatto Jesus had nuttin to do with it.

Flakmeister's picture

You come up with "Mulatto Jesus" and don't have the cojones to spell shit and cunt??

conspicio's picture

I am sensitive that way and was simply trolling for you to notice. Is Mulatto Jesus offensive? This is news to me...


Cheers, mate.

TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

Jesus is a mulatto.

That's why he has a Brazilian name.

Flakmeister's picture

Trust me, I wasn't offended in the least... 

I was taken aback by your pusillanimous behaviour...

Flakmeister's picture

Here are the current temperature anomalies:

Notice how the Arctic is much warmer than normal, Alaska is basically in a record high temperature zone...

Be damn glad you ain't in Siberia where temperatures are 20 degrees or so below normal...

fedupwhiteguy's picture

North Dakota (jamestown) on Monday was -40 with that pesky wind chill and all my friends made it to work. It was a measly 11 degrees with 2" of snow this week in Birmingham, AL and it was PANDIMONIUM!! ha ha ha.

Housing in North Dakota is in demand, but the supply is very low. Mancamps and RV's are filling the voids.

Vooter's picture

"Honey, I just LOVE that house--I think it's perfect for us!"

"I do, too, but it's so cold and snowy outside...what if we freeze to death on our way over to look at it?"

"You know, you're right--let's skip it. We can probably safely venture out again in April..."

dogmete's picture

It's amazing that home prices are up anyway. I'll bet that changes soon. Dramatically.