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Dow Dumps To 2nd Worst January In 24 Years

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Another volatile day ended with the Dow is down around 5% in January - the worst start to a year since 2009 (and 2nd worst since 1990) and the worst month since May 2012 (a 3-sigma miss of the average +1.5% per month gain since 2009's lows). Japan, Brazil, and Russia suffered greatly on the month as gold miners, Egypt?, and US Biotech did well. There is a huge 380bps spread between the performance of the Industrials and the Transports YTD. Gold had its best month in the last 5; Treasuries rallied with 10Y yields dropping their most since May 2012; USD rallied the most in 8 months with JPY's biggest rally (and Nikkei's biggest loss) since April 2012.

 

Quite a January...

 

Trader's Almanac -  every down January on the S&P 500 since 1938, without exception, has preceded a new or extended bear market, a 10% correction, or a flat year. As we also noted here, The JAJO Effect

 

Perhaps this image of a huge boulder ploughing through the Italian countryside sums up the effect the Fed has had on EM (the shed that is destroyed) and the US (the house is still standing but the foundations are faltering)...

 

On the week, the S&P and Nasdaq pushed up to unchanged on the week and EM was proclaimed fixed - only for the market to drop rapidly into the close

 

It seems stocks disconnected briefly from JPY carry only to revert lower into the close...

 

Year to date there is a huge performance gap between the Dow Industrials and the Transports...

 

and since the start of the Taper, the Dow is red...

 

Treasuries rallied 3-6bps on the week...but down 25 to 38bps on the year!!

 

Gold dropped 2% on the week, Silver 3.75% but on the month gold is up 3.2% (as copper has lost 6%)... (note the shit on January 22/23)

 

Since 1/24, JPY has been on a tear higher (and CAD getting hammered)...

 

The so-called "fear index" VIX diverged bearishly for stocks into the close... suggesting people were hedging into a troubling weekend.

 

Across the world's equity markets, Nikkei Volatility, Argentina, Arca Gold Bugs and Egypt are among the best performers so far in 2014 and Japanese REITs, Brazil, Russia, and India are worst...

(click image for huge legible version)

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

Bonus Chart: Credit is still waving its red flag...

 


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Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:04 | Link to Comment Obama_4_Dictator
Obama_4_Dictator's picture

haha, good. Assholes. Here's to another 10% in February! 

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:18 | Link to Comment Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

All in All, a good start to the year!

.

Hey Ben,  This was all part of your plan, right?

 

p.s.  Looks like the -1 guy is back in town

 

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:15 | Link to Comment ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

Speaking of Dumps!!, wooah, you should have seen this thing

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:40 | Link to Comment HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Right down the line after S&P touched yesterday's closing.  Fat stinky prune Yellin'.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSfOB8ANdWU

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:57 | Link to Comment aVileRat
aVileRat's picture

Next month will prob. be a weaker month. Most of the US beat's were done on significantly talked down guidance & EPS forwards.

January numbers will likely be blamed on the weather and will be taken as a softening trend. Since gold is being bot on leverage, expect a bunch of slam, like EM's.

 

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 18:34 | Link to Comment Shocker
Shocker's picture

So the Dow is actually moving in the direction of the news?....

Maybe not

Job Layoff / Business Closing List: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

/

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:14 | Link to Comment Black Warrior W...
Black Warrior Waterdog's picture

You like your BTFD, you can keep your BTFD!

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:14 | Link to Comment Overfed
Overfed's picture

Jump. Fuckers.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:13 | Link to Comment I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

"We're very disappointed in you, Kevin."

 - The Owners

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:32 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   I have a hunch next week is going to be really rough on usd/jpy. Yields are way down and the dollar needing an retrace could be the perfect storm for usd/jpy. I like eur/jpy and gbp/jpy shorts.

  Looks Jimmy "tool time" Cramer is reading Z/H. look at this dxy chart assclown. http://imageshack.com/scaled/large/844/7gpk.png  You're probably the same idiot I warned was going to get his lips ripped off by shorting aud on Wednesday, and sure enough you did Thursday intraday.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:18 | Link to Comment Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

"According to official figures released by Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration, Switzerland exported as much as 2.6 tons of commodities to Iran during the ten-month time frame, topping the list of European exporters to Iran.  The Swiss Federal Council said in a statement on January 29 that it had suspended part of its economic sanctions against Iran in accordance with the Geneva nuclear deal between Tehran and the six world powers.  Switzerland has lifted a ban on precious metal trade with Iranian public bodies and eased restrictions on trade in petrochemical products, transport of Iranian oil and petroleum products, and the provision of insurance for shipments until August 14, 2014, read the statement."

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2014/01/31/348616/switzerland-top-exporter-...

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:19 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

As January goes.......it's going to be a lonnnng 11 months

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:43 | Link to Comment HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

For any one long the next 48 hours must be stressful.

I've been short since after 1st week January 2014.

The December IMF Rogoff and Reinhart paper kicked off the 2014 avalanche.

Boulder is rolling.  There is no Sisyphus.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 18:09 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

Long on bonds has actually been quite relaxing

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:19 | Link to Comment thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

5.3 percent in the red is a solid way to start.

 

lets double or triple that next month, and so on and so on.

 

may each month be worse than the previous month.

 

cheers to that!!

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:18 | Link to Comment TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

They think they will be safe in bonds; hope they are happy with their fills, better take a few more for the weekend just in case.

 

Ya know, polar vortex and stuff; ya can't be too carefull....

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:21 | Link to Comment Occams_Chainsaw
Occams_Chainsaw's picture

BOHICA

The Best of Times

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:21 | Link to Comment Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:25 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

But how to we know when to buy the god damn fucking dip!

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:40 | Link to Comment Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

as long as its under 10k per oz that IS the fucking dip...

as long as Silver is in double digits that IS the fucking dip...

jesus man...........

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:27 | Link to Comment replaceme
replaceme's picture

If the markets don't rise, what else does the admin point to for success?  If it really can't work this out, I think it points a lot of guns at something.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:27 | Link to Comment HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

Super Bowl Indicator (SBI) has been correct 33 of 41 years! Amazing! So Seahawks win, markets rally. Broncos win, correction continues. This seemingly silly metric is on par with just about every other correlation out there. So I'm making my bets Sunday night. No brainer.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:27 | Link to Comment HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

2nd worst January in 24 years and we don't get the deer?? We should have a huge close up of the deer face taking up half the page and tweeted to all the morons on CNBC and their "expert" guests.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 18:05 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

These fuckers had to put a lot of our government's money into the market to get it this high. They were not going to wait for more retail folks to get in before they did their "profit taking". They may be getting a bit greedy here but they will likely turn it all around on monday and ramp again so as to not scare off the retail folks too much. Just more pump and dump. They got the world by the nuts and won't let go that easily.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:33 | Link to Comment halfawake
halfawake's picture

$150bil qe here we come!! s&P 2000 baby!!

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:36 | Link to Comment CultiVader
CultiVader's picture

It's a good day to go down to Wells Fargo, call in some of my unsecured loan to those motherfuckers and tell them I'm going to STACK PHYZZ today. And if they don't like it they can take a flying leap.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:49 | Link to Comment The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

2nd worse month and Gold is still being fingered. Nothing makes sense and let's keep it that way.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 17:49 | Link to Comment tawse57
tawse57's picture

Dow only 5 percent down. Was hoping for 10 percent at least. They will bump that 5 percent back up by Tuesday.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 18:15 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

At this point I don't think stocks can stay down long without the whole system blowing up.

BTFD

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 18:36 | Link to Comment creeko
creeko's picture

plunge MOAR!, you fucking piece of shit stockmarket...

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 18:39 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

If the Feds cut back on QE by 20% then I expect the DOW to go down at least 20%. Quidance of more cutbacks will acelerate the unwind. That's how it rolls.

 

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 18:45 | Link to Comment tawse57
tawse57's picture

I thought Chinese banks were meant to implode today?????

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 19:49 | Link to Comment Music101
Music101's picture

Yup, it's a WORLD OF DEBT!!! Must see Video Below "WORLD OF DEBT":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99xsqxzJnXs

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 19:51 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  The DXY is going to retrace , even though it put in a daily buy signal.

 http://i1037.photobucket.com/albums/a456/hartfx/usdx.png     You were warned<

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 23:09 | Link to Comment MagicMoney
MagicMoney's picture

MARGIN CALL!!!

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