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USDJPY 102.00 Is The Line In The Sand

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As Rick Santelli just noted, the JPY carry trade is the only thing that matters. It is the only fun-durr-mental factor that matters (implicitly or explicitly encouraged by the varying velocities of BoJ and Fed balance sheet flows). To that end, this morning has seen the crucial Abenomics make-it-or-break-it 102 level for USDJPY tested once again... and then instantly ramped (by Nomura we suspect by all market chatter accounts). We will wait for Europe's close to see reality.

 

 

It is all about generating momentum ignition in S&P futures - as we have discussed numerous times. Yesterday we saw a similar disconnect which collapsed back to JPY reality into the close - will today be the same...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:16 | 4388142 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Like betting on a seesaw. 

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:16 | 4388149 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

they need to step in very soon. A 10% drop can be talked about as healthy, but is absolutely not allowed to happen.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:21 | 4388173 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@fonz

Nomura/Fed/Citadel/PPT can't hold it forever.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:22 | 4388183 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

They are defending and trying to close this week above last week's low ES 1780 level, or all hell breaks loose next week.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:25 | 4388192 HRamos_3
HRamos_3's picture

^ This.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:26 | 4388202 Cult_of_Reason
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Closing below last week's low will trigger a major sell signal and blood bath next week.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:29 | 4388218 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

agreed, and amazingly that seems to be how it's looking right now. After this european close rally dogshit i'd be shocked if we don't resume dump mode. Then you gotta wonder if they need to go to a hilsenbarf rumor or something near the close to do damage control.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:45 | 4388229 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Bond yields down, S&P losses cut in half, Euroland is "off the lows", and gold smacked. Kevin is on the job.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:39 | 4388261 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Cocaine is one hell of a drug, but I hear monetary crack is even worse.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:57 | 4388335 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

I personally think it sucks that I have to hope for a phony currency like the yen to go UP in value for the stock market to correct toward reality.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 13:35 | 4388472 new game
new game's picture

twin brothers of different mothers!

keep finding each other.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:27 | 4388208 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Many technicians waiting for 100DMA on ES to be crossed.  Has not yet.  

Looks like we will have a chart like 2008 in 2014.  

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:29 | 4388211 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Nice shorts.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:24 | 4388197 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The "market" is becoming less important (most insiders are already out), however, sovereign debt MUST expand.  You will buy treasuries, yes you will.

hedge accordingly.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:29 | 4388219 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

As long as Obama drew the line we're cool

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 13:21 | 4388428 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

As long as Obama drew the line we're cool

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 13:02 | 4388351 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Well if it isn't Fonz...  the No Taper Ever Cheerleader in Charge!

Why "is absolutely not allowed to happen"?  So you don't get your ass kicked!?

This pig of a market  is about to get slaughtered so it isn't going to fly anymore!

 

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 13:40 | 4388487 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Look at the 10yr you fuckin Mook! By the way, I owe you some credit, I have been using mook on and off since you called me it. It's a fine word.

and full disclosure, I have been buying this dip. Some more pain may or not be ahead. But this is just a setup for the uber dove to save the day.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:15 | 4388155 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

All you need to know is which side of the seesaw Yellen is on.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:31 | 4388184 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

...and with a feather on the other side.

Market about to go green. I think this is Ben's last day....can not have a down day today. 

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:19 | 4388170 nasdaq99
Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:44 | 4388289 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

It is a pretty weak defense of 102 today.  The Nomura algos can barely get USD/JPY above 102.30 and then gravity takes over.  Its either because its Friday or something is up in Japan for the weekend.

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 01:06 | 4390650 InjectTheVenom
InjectTheVenom's picture

Yep, something's probably up...I'll call my buddy there, his name is Ho Li Fuk 

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 13:13 | 4388400 National Blessing
National Blessing's picture

Japan and America are both mired in deflationary endless recessions.  Print print print.  Deflation deflation deflation.  Weird shit.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:15 | 4388147 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

The stat arb algo's will shut this down

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:18 | 4388156 Kaiser Sousa
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i hope yall caught the action in the last 15 minutes in the Fraud Market....

from down 185 to 120 in a minute...

fucking hilarious....

and what we do without this kind of action in the phony paper Silver and Gold markets..

 

http://www.chartseeker.com/images/AG-24HR-LG.png?1391184907

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:16 | 4388157 GolfHatesMe
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$3.75 - $4.75B POMO Oh that's the stuff also didn't hurt

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:18 | 4388160 The Axe
The Axe's picture

The trading desk at the NY FED  is buying like MAD....hold that line.....crazy

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:19 | 4388164 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Market losses just cut in half the last 30 minutes or so.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:18 | 4388167 Obama_4_Dictator
Obama_4_Dictator's picture

SELL...SELL...SELL - come on everyone don't let them win!!

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:19 | 4388171 Possible Impact
Possible Impact's picture

What is the airspeed of a fully laden European balance sheet?

(the answer is hard to swallow...)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2R3FvS4xr4

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:40 | 4388272 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

HELP HELP I'M BEING REPRESSED! 

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:23 | 4388177 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The ten year bond is at 2.66. It's almost like this controlled demolition were planned or something.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:22 | 4388179 LawsofPhysics
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If this is true, and today's POMO doesn't paint the tape, then thing might get interesting, just maybe.  Are people piling into shorts yet, maybe in euroland?

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:27 | 4388207 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The shorts best not get too greedy. One word out of Yellen via Hilsenbarf and the shorts will find themselves on the wrong end of a rally.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 13:06 | 4388367 teolawki
teolawki's picture

Tickle me ElMoMo.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:30 | 4388221 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

wow, amazing how the ftse, cac and dax all cut there losses by more than half.

 

no fraudulant markets to see there.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:33 | 4388228 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

i hope u guys r enjoying watching the Dow move upwards a point a minute...now down only 96 points...

really???? this is your fucking markets....

what a load of bullshit....

can it be anymore obvious????wait for it...................

FUCK NO!

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:36 | 4388246 larry david
larry david's picture

A point a minute? Try 10 points per fucking fantasecond. Fuck this shit 

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:35 | 4388250 larry david
larry david's picture

A point a minute? Try 10 points per fucking fantasecond. Fuck this shit 

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:32 | 4388232 fijisailor
fijisailor's picture

Just the volatility in PMs is telling me something big is going down and there is a momentous paper effort to keep it under control.  The bankers are trying to stick more and more fingers into the breaking dam.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:36 | 4388258 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

yeap - no doubt...

and im happen to be sitting on a decent pile of debt coupon dollars that i been throwing right back at the fucking MoneyChangers in exchange for real money....

wanna play paper games - fine with me you fucking sociopath asshole banker bitches....

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:34 | 4388236 larry david
larry david's picture

Market is "off da lowz" by 125 points based on.....?????????????

 

Fuck you yellen and fuck you Bernanke

 

Fuck you Bob Piss on me and especially you Cramer. 

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:48 | 4388293 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

Fucking Pisani...

i swear im seriously thinking about flying to NY to c if i can get on the floor with him just so i can bitch slap him as he goes into one of his propganda hazes...

FUCK YOU CNB-ITCHES....

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 01:08 | 4390653 InjectTheVenom
InjectTheVenom's picture

you are on fire tonite man 

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:43 | 4388283 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

I covered my long yen today because I figure its basically the same position as all the short deltas I have what with the 1:1 correlation to the ES.  The Euro looks better to my eyes, It is also sitting on a horizontal but it has already broken the intermidiate uptrend yesterday; I think we are going back to 1.34 at least.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 12:57 | 4388329 teolawki
teolawki's picture

Mr. Abe. Paging Mr. Abe.

Fri, 01/31/2014 - 13:13 | 4388396 yrad
yrad's picture

Fake Market, Farket

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