Martin Armstrong Warns Ukraine Is Doomed After The Elections

Tyler Durden's picture

Further protests and a plethora of headlines this morning from both sides in the troubled European (for now) nation. The Ukrainian foreign minister begins by noting that "its impossible to take Ukraine away from Russia," that Ukraine was "right to take attractive Russia offer," and that protests aren't peaceful. Opposition leader Klitschko responded that "Ukrainians dream of a stable, modern country," and that a majority of Ukrainians want "European values," and asks for "international help." Romania's Basescu is concerned and urges the Ukrainian army to stay out of the conflict. But, as Martin Armstrong notes below, according to a former adviser to Vladimir Putin, the economist Andrei Illarionov, the Kremlin will take one of three possible scenarios with respect to the Ukraine problem to "assert a lot of pressure on Kiev."


Submitted by Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics,

According to a former adviser to Vladimir Putin, the economist  Andrei Illarionov, the Kremlin will take one of three possible scenarios with respect to the Ukraine problem. The most dramatic will be the establishment of full control over the whole Ukraine. Within the first half of February, Illarionov states that Russia will begin the total pressure on Ukraine, the purpose of which, will be to assert full control of Moscow over the country.

According to Illarionov, within the next week, Russia will begin to assert a lot of pressure on Kiev. Moscow has resumed a reduced trade war with Ukraine and there has been an information war against Ukraine put out by the government. In particular, there is a delay at the border of Ukrainian goods moving into Russia for 10-15 days. This is expected to increase domestic economic pressure in Ukraine.

The mainstream news in Russia portrays the Ukrainian protesters as criminals and what they are attempting to do amounts to a coup. Some even claim this will lead to a resurgence of Nazis and neo-Nazis power on the border. Purpose of this revolution in Ukraine is to accomplish, says Illarionov literally, is “genocide and the destruction of the Russian population.”

Others in Russia talk about the “reunification” of Russian lands, not that Ukraine is even a separate country. They place this in the news and the context is justified the same as German unification. The Eastern part of Ukraine was historically once Russia. This  is the same justification Iraq made on invading Kuwait. The Western portion of Ukraine was never part of Russia so this reasoning would not apply. Indeed, even in the West they speak Ukrainian whereby in the East they speak Russian. We could see Russia justify taking the East as a “reunification” but I would not expect anything before the Olympic games are over.

At the same time, according to the ex-adviser to Putin, Russia has increased its presence in Ukraine, in particular, in the Crimea and the Luhansk region, where the predominant Russian population live. They entered that region to protect the Russian population in eastern Ukraine. Additional Russians were sent into Sevastopol to protect it from the raging swells against Russians. All this gives the impression of a major well-prepared campaign that has just begun and will go on increasing in February. It is not much different from American troops being sent to a foreign land to protect Americans.

Illarionov believes that the active phase will begin immediately after the opening of the Olympics in Sochi, February 7-8th. It is unlikely that Russia would take any such action prior to the Olympics. What happens after the games, is purely political motivation. However, the Russian government will paint the Ukrainian protesters as criminals no different than Hoover called the Bonus Army criminals to justify military action against them in Washington back in 1932.

According to Illarionov, Russia’s options are

  • (1) establishing a baseline scenario control over the entire Ukraine. This would be the most appropriate option;
  • (2) pro-Kremlin politicians and political scientists see this as the federalization or confederation Ukraine in the context of reunification as a state subservient to Moscow. and
  • (3) llarionov suggests that if the first two options fail, then control over the Crimea, Luhansk , and possibly part of Sumy region will need to be established under this idea of “reunification” with Moscow over part of the country in the East joining the Russian population with their mother country.

Illarionov believes that the outcome is really predetermined and that whatever attempts are made to pretend to appoint a opposition Prime Minister of Ukraine, the decision is simply a stall tactic.

It is very clear that many Russian politicians call directly for a popular idea to recreate the age-old dream of reunification of Ukraine and Russia. It is very clear that many have never considered Ukraine as an independent state and call it “nedogosudarstvom”. From their point of view, Ukraine will no longer be so weak in relation to Russia, and Russia will not be as strong in relation to Ukraine, as it is today.

The Western powers represented by the EU and the US have nothing to stand on to protect Ukraine and can only offer lip-service at best. So once again, it appears that Ukraine is doomed and the best one can hope for there, is that Russia will allow the West to leave. The countdown goes forward and the political and economic crisis is indicative of what we see with the first shot across the bow in the rising trend of the Cycle of War.


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john39's picture

European values? wtf does that mean? debt serfdom as a way of life...

0b1knob's picture

< We are ALL doomed after the elections.

< We are all doomed both before and after the elections.   

0b1knob's picture

Speaking of elections, the push for an Obama third term is just starting.   Dear Leader must be feared and respected.


greatbeard's picture

>> the push for an Obama third term

So you don't know what an op-ed is, eh?

CoonT's picture

Doomed? What does that mean? I can't wait for this shake-up, and boy is it long overdue. This means the end of TBTF, and the re-emergence of true competition. Counting down the minutes..


garypaul's picture

I can't stand your avatar 0b1knob. I keep thinking my webpage is reloading.

Ghordius's picture

Yes, we do have values. Actually everybody has some, if you are willing to look. btw, this guy talking about values is a famous boxer in Germany

Debt Serfdom? You mean student loans that can't be defaulted on? Both unknown, here

Tom_333's picture

No. That´s the American dream.

shutdown's picture

As a humanitarian gesture Russia should annex Ukraine and put an end to the instability once and for all. 

Xibalba's picture

That would end up being quite the tragedy for beautiful Ukraine.  Barroso would only tax them and tax them and then probably resource rape them and tax them again.  

shutdown's picture

Oh, my. The horror! The EU wouldn't try something like that. 

Ghordius's picture

Barroso, the eu commission and the whole EU have no tax authority or power of the purse. Their budget is granted by the member sovereigns

B0R1K's picture

You are complete morun.

VD's picture

exactly what i wrote here 2 weeks ago. (after olympics putin moves in, etc.)

HardlyZero's picture

1980 Winter Olympics didn't work out for Russia and US either, then it was Afghanistan.   History rhymes ?   This time they wait, so the riot is using its window of opportunity, now.

booboo's picture

Yea, "uppity" sovereign american states should pay attention, the Feral Government will employ foreign troops and mercs to keep them in line too. The oligarchs just hate it when a group of folks start going off their programming.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

"Democracy" is a red herring.  Seems, this comes down to Oil, Gas and Petro-Currencies once again.

One of the reputable ZH writers please write about how the Ukraine fits into the Energy & Pipeline cartels, i.e. Russian, vs EU/US:  Where's the Energy (Oil, Gas), and where are current and proposed pipelines?

Go with the Flow, and you follow the money-trail.

CrashisOptimistic's picture


Pipeline map.  That stuff goes to Europe.  It merely traverses Ukraine.

Russia is dominant and ppl just don't realize it.

atomicwasted's picture

Sadly most of the decent and thoughtful writers and posters decamped long ago.

akak's picture

I would take anything that Martin "Co-Opted And/Or Senile" Armstrong has to say anymore with an asteroid-sized pinch of salt.

Xibalba's picture

He's a Princeton guy...and from Jersey!   So yeah.  UPPED! 

dogbreath's picture

Armstrong has had a holiday to the Gulag Archipelago.  Have any of you armstrong bashers been there done that.   So tell us again what you know that Armstrong doesn't.   Spits!


Edit:  crickets

Volkodav's picture

What has that to do with Ukraine?  If true, he doesn't seem smarter for it..

is it important to you?

If change subject looking for truth..better read Solzhenitzin "200 Years Together"

Can learn there it was not Russians in control..

Armstrong is no authority of these subjects.


dogbreath's picture

Volkodav    +1

You ask  "What has that to do with Ukraine? "

1.   Most people wouldn't know where the various islands of the archipelago are let alone that some of them may now exist in the USA.  

2.   The crirtics of Mr Armstong think that now that he was released from his holiday in the archipelago he is now safely back in Freedom and that he is safe to shoot his mouth off.

3.   I think Armstrong is a well educated and experienced man and is qualified to comment on world events.

4.   Neither 200 years Together or Russia in Collapse are available in english language editions.   I guess that there isn't enough interest in the anglo world in A.S.'s writing anymore and the publishers think the books won't sell.   I have read nearly everything from this great man.

My guess is Armstrong feels lucky to be alive and knows his life may be in more danger in freedom than safely tucked away in his holiday apartment

Volkodav's picture

There is demand for English 200 Years Together but has been blocked in west...There is a project to print outside, but I haven't followed progress about, I know who to contact..


dogbreath's picture

I have a first edition The Oak and the Calf, unsigned unfortunately.    I was always impressed with his story of his exile and how he hid his writings yet circulated manuscripts by samizdat for critical review.  Fonestar wants us to believe BTC is secure when its out in the open.   The discipline and discretion required to live in those times.   I have much respect for those who lived died survived the soviet terror.

There was a project that I became aware of and then it died...suddenly.

Real Estate Geek's picture

Thanks, because Samizdat is now my new word of the day.  Unfortunately, I think it's a word whose time will soon come to the USSA.

garypaul's picture

I am just as good as Armstrong. Let me give you an example:

In the next 6 months, Market X will be up, unless it goes down. If neither of those things happen, there is a chance it could go sideways. By the way, I can tell you the price of Market X twenty years from now to three decimal places.

Does that about sum up an Armstrong piece? And does it really mean shit if he got arrested for fraud and spent some time in prison?

garypaul's picture

Great job refuting my points!

dogbreath's picture

What points?  The only thing you said is that you are just as smart brilliant stupid as Armstong.   You upvoted yourself too for that,.

garypaul's picture

Holy fuck you missed the sarcasm? Step away from the computer, you might break it.

dogbreath's picture

Keep up voting your self

JustObserving's picture

So once again, it appears that Ukraine is doomed

Another cheap propaganda piece that is becoming so common here (like the one on AIDS in Russia) before the Sochi Olympics.  Why do you think that joining the EU is the best choice for Ukraine?  Let the people decide.  If you do not like a government decision, you vote the government out in the next election.  You do not have the right to violent protests and calls for immediate elections.  Besides, we have John McCain going over and encouraging the opposition.  That is illegal, unethical intervention in the internal affairs of a sovereign country.

John McCain tells Ukraine protesters: 'We are here to support your just cause'

Western politicians who advocate freedom of choice for Ukraine, but say this must be a pro-European choice, have a strange interpretation of freedom, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told a security conference in Munich.

Lavrov was responding to numerous statements, including from the European Council President Hermann van Rompuy and NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, which were voiced just minutes before at the conference. He also criticized Western support for Ukrainian anti-government protests, which he said ignored the darker side of the movements behind the violence there.

What does the inciting of street protests, which are growing increasingly violent, have to do with promoting democratic principles?” Lavrov said.

Besides the West has done so well spreading democracy and freedom in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia - the list is endless.

Heroin production in Afghanistan increased 40 times since NATO began its ‘War on Terror’ in 2001, the head of Russia’s Federal Drug Control Service stated, adding that more than 1 million people have died from Afghan heroin since then.

Fuck you, Martin Armstrong, for such blatant propaganda.  If you have any shame, you will never post again.

cossack55's picture

McShame and Putin have had this "biggest dong" thing going via twitter for a couple of years now.  I see Az is about to censure McShame.  I wonder if they can recall his demented ass?

seek's picture

He's already been censured by both the largest county and the state-level republicans, and they're trying to paint it as some sort of crackpot thing when I can assure you the vast majority of (R)s in AZ view McCain as an outright traitor.

It's not possible to recall senators, and it's never been attempted -- there might be a 10th amendment approach, but I think it's safe to say this would be a particularly difficult task given McCain's status as a top member of TPTB.

Many of us are hoping that he either doesn't run for another term, or if he does, that he's ripped to shreds in the primaries -- remember, the rank and file do NOT want him, and have gone so far as to censure him, so he's completely dependent on gaming the system and getting support from clueless seniors. I fully expect a multi-million dollar attempt to cram him into the senate again.

atomicwasted's picture

Mccain is a useful shill the Warfare State drags out when they want to promote bipartisan consensus on what group of brown people the federal government is going to kill next. 

Ignorance is bliss's picture

Fuck the people of Arizona for electing that shitbag.

Real Estate Geek's picture

And fuck the people of CA for electing that shitbag Feinstein.  And fuck the people of WI for electing that shitbag Sensenbrenner, author of the so-called "Patriot" Act.  And fuck the people . . .

No.  On second thought, fuck all of those corrupt whores; not their victims.

ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

"Fuck you, Martin Armstrong, for such blatant propaganda.  If you have any shame, you will never post again"

as you cite immediately above a RussiaToday piece...hilarious (even Vlad the Putin would laugh at the obviousness of this)

Stalin stuck  a large chunk of Russia onto Ukraine .,. so all the wonderful thinkers and historians (is was not that long ago) can completley ignore what that did ......

Glad I do not depend on JustObserving for my security & well-being    (and I am no fan of John McCain) 

So it is ok to tell Russia take what you want with no consideration for at least half the country .......

let the country get broken up into 2 or 3 countries with the closest a 'buffer state' if Russia that truly paranoid

JustObserving's picture

"a RussiaToday piece...hilarious"

You prefer the puerile, Pentagon-provided propaganda of the New York Times?

Yeah, the very New York Times that published all the lies of Judith Miller that led to the million plus deaths in Iraq. Yes, the very same New York Times that clears its stories with the Pentagon. Yes, the very same New York Times that refused to publish the Guardian story that Obama signed an agreement with Israel in March 2009 handing over all the NSA data collected on Americans without any legal restrictions. The credibility of the New York Times and its propagandists is less than zero to put it gently.

On Monday, the Times public editor Margaret Sullivan was compelled to respond to a barrage of emails from readers demanding to know why the newspaper had failed to write one line about the secret NSA documents released by Snowden showing that the agency was funneling raw data, including the telephone calls, emails and other online communications of American citizens, to Israeli intelligence.

“Friends of mine who never before believed that newspapers suppressed the truth are shocked by the evidence before them,” wrote one reader.

Sullivan reports a discussion on the matter with managing editor Dean Baquet, who told her that the story wasn’t “significant or surprising” and that the paper had more important things to do, such as “cover the turmoil in Syria.”

In other words, the NSA-Israel story was news that didn’t “fit” the Times overarching propaganda line in favor of a war in Syria that is intimately bound up with Israeli interests.

Front page of New York Times 9/8/2002:

Page 1 NY Times story by Judith Miller and Michael Gordon cites anonymous administration officials saying Saddam has repeatedly tried to acquire aluminum tubes "specially designed" to enrich uranium. "The first sign of a 'smoking gun,' they argue, may be a mushroom cloud."

Volkodav's picture

Stalin was not Russian.

From 1917 thru Stalin was not Russians in control.

Stalin did what he want...Mostly to Russians. Russians suffered more than any.


Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Being allied with nobody is best, but if forced to choose between being allied with Putin vs being destroyed by Brussels, the Ukraine is best off with Putin.

Putin's major interests are his power, and Russian nationalism.  If you don't threaten those, he'll basically leave you be.  Those are rules that are predictable.

Brussels, OTOH, actively goes about controlling, raping and destroying economies, meddling into the personal and public lives of everyone, and continually assaults every nation and person under its thumb with a dizzying bombardment of rules, regulations, controls, monitors, etc until they have zero liberty left and are nothing but enslaved shells, subservient to the soviet EU dictates. 

Given that choice, Putin wins hands down.

Volkodav's picture

VV Putin main is Russia...not his personal power any beyond serving Russian people as he knows the history better than anyone here...

especially a know not much like Armstrong



ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

wow .... a KGB believer in our midst