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Two Months After We Said It Would, Goldman Cuts Its GDP Forecast (With Much More To Come)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Back in December 2013, as we do after every periodic bout of irrational exuberance by Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius et al (who can forget our post from December 2010 "Goldman Jumps Shark, Goes Bullish, Hikes Outlook" in which Hatzius hiked his 2011 GDP forecast from 1.9% to 2.7% only to end the year at 1.8%, and we won't even comment on the longer-term forecasts) designed merely to provide a context for Goldman's equity flow and prop-trading axes, we said it was only a matter of time before Goldman (and the rest of the Goldman-following sellside econo-penguins) is forced to once again trim its economic forecasts. Overnight, two months after our prediction, the FDIC-backed hedge fund did just that, after Goldman's Hatzius announced that "we have taken down our GDP estimates to 2½% in Q1 and 3% in Q2, from 2.7% [ZH: actually 3.0% as of Thursday] and 3½% previously."

That didn't take long - we expect many more such cuts in the weeks and months to come after Wall Street is shocked, shocked, to learn that the market once again frontran a huge recovery that is not coming simply because the H2 bounce was entirely due to massive inventory accumulation (and a housing shopping spree that was solely driven by speculative investors reflecting nothing but the Fed's easy money), that now has to be liquidated and subtract over 1% from full year GDP. That, and of course the coming EM crash as a result of what everyone will soon realize is a world in which not only did nobody get the "tapering is priced in" memo, but also the plunge in markets which results in a reflexive drop in the economy that may in fact end up in recession, forcing the Fed to do what once again, what it always does - print.

So how does Hatzius explain the reason for this now traditional overoptimism? He doesn't, instead assigning it to - get this - "spurious weakness." He does, however, mention the impact of the recent EM turbulence in the context of data that has been week for a month with a phenomenon that only took center stage a week or so ago is disingenuous at best, and PhD economist-stupid at worst. Which is why he tries to talk it down:

Both the US economic data and financial market sentiment have taken a turn for the worse since the start of the year. Exhibit 1 shows that our US-MAP surprise index has fallen into negative territory and our current activity indicator (CAI) has slowed from an average of 3.1% in October/November to 2.3% in December, primarily because of the weakness in the employment and housing indicators.

 

The US Economy Is Not Very Exposed to EM

 

What lies behind this weaker news? A tempting explanation is the turbulence in emerging economies and markets. As our EM Markets team has noted, we do not expect the difficulties there to disappear quickly as they reflect a need for significant adjustments in a range of countries in an environment of higher global real interest rates and lower commodity prices. So at least the headline risk from the EM troubles for US financial markets is likely to persist for some time.

 

However, as our Global Economics team has noted, the exposure of developed market economies to EM troubles is quite limited, and this conclusion applies particularly to the US. Exhibit 2 provides a summary of US exposures to emerging markets through three channels: (1) merchandise exports as a share of US GDP, (2) banking system claims as a share of US bank assets, and (3) corporate profits by the EM subsidiaries of US multinationals as a share of overall US corporate profits. In each case, we show both the overall exposure to emerging markets and the exposure to a smaller group of key EM economies in recent focus (Argentina, Brazil, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, Indonesia and India).

 

 

Broadly speaking, the exposures look small. US exports are worth 5% of GDP when looking at EM economies broadly and 0.7% when looking at the most affected countries. If we assume a 10% drop in overall EM import demand as a result of the recent troubles this would mechanically shave 0.5 percentage points from real GDP growth. But this is close to a worst-case assumption, as it would match the worst point of the very severe Asian crisis of the late 1990s. It is also worth noting that our US GDP forecast already assumes a small negative contribution from net trade. So we do not see our forecast as particularly vulnerable in this respect.

 

US banking exposures are likewise quite small, accounting for 5.5% of total banking assets when looking at EM overall and 1.9% when looking at the most affected countries. Although the exposures obviously vary significantly between different types of banks, it is difficult to see how credit losses in EM would deal a large blow to the US banking system short of a worst-case outcome for the EM cycle. Finally, the profitability of the US corporate sector is also not particularly exposed to trouble in its EM subsidiaries, at least in aggregate. We estimate that EM subsidiaries account for 5.5% of US corporate profits overall and for 1.0% when looking only at the most troubled economies. Again, short of a very bad outcome with significant contagion across EM and the broader global economy, this is a manageable issue.

So... not very exposed to EMs? Curious then what Jan would say about LTCM's exposure to the EMs in 1997, and to the US financial system as a result. "Modest at best" perhaps... unless of course Goldman was loaded to the gills with shorts at the time and was seeking to liquidate. We will be sure to keep a close eye on how fast it takes Jan Hatzius to flip flop on this key issue, as the EM crisis subtracts another 1%+ from US 2014 GDP.

Which brings us to the topic of Inventories. Here is what we, lacking an Econ PhD or an entire economics department at our disposal, said in early December: "Here Is The "Growth" - Inventory Hoarding Accounts For Nearly 60% Of GDP Increase In Past Year", and provided the following chart:

We concluded: "The problem with inventory hoarding, however, is that at some point it will have to be "unhoarded." Which is why expect many downward revisions to future GDP as this inventory overhang has to be destocked."

We were two months ahead of the curve. So here is Goldman doing precisely what we said would happen, namely cutting its GDP forecast precisely due to upcoming inventory destocking.

Inventory Payback, But Probably Only in the GDP Data

 

There is another, more technical factor that probably will subtract noticeably from GDP growth in early 2014, namely the sharp pickup in inventory accumulation in the GDP data for the second half of 2013 and the likely payback over the next few quarters. As shown in Exhibit 3, the level of inventory investment stood at 0.9% of GDP in 2013Q4, toward the top end of the range over the past 25 years. Such a rapid pace is unlikely to be sustained, and this probably implies a mechanical negative impulse from inventories to GDP growth over the next couple of quarters. Inventories are likely to be a drag in 2014H1, and we have taken down our GDP estimates to 2½% in Q1 and 3% in Q2, from 2.7% and 3½% previously.

Once again, we will one up Goldman and say that since the downswing in any economic data set always overshoots to both the upside and downside, the impact from the inventory liquidation, once commenced will tumble well below the unchanged line, and by the end of 2014, adversely impact economic output by as much as 2%. Add the impact from EMs and suddenly you are looking at a very realistic recession scenario.

So what to expect in the coming days? It is here that Goldman's chief economist, once providing respectable insight, gets downright sad. As in "respected man becoming a clown" sad. Case in point: we are said to expect better January payroll number because while January was freezing, the payroll survey week was warmer than normal. It really doesn't get any more ridiculous than this. But hey, if "economists" want to believe that the weather is impacting payrolls, or housing (which we proved conclusively had nothing to do with the weather), they are welcome to do so. Also believe in the tooth fairy, or that Joe LaVorgna's forecasting track record is better than Groundhog Phil's. Cutting straight to Goldman's failed attempt at non-comedy:

Looking for Decent January Data Next Week

 

Consistent with all this, the January ISM and employment data due next week are likely to look reasonably firm. Our preliminary forecast for the nonfarm payroll report is a bounceback to a 200,000 pace of increase. There are two key reasons why we expect the report to look strong:

 

1.    Better weather (yes, really). Although the month of January as a whole was quite cold, the payroll survey week was actually somewhat warmer than normal, and we expect no significant weather impact on the seasonally adjusted level of payrolls this month. Given our estimate that the cold weather in the December survey week depressed the seasonally adjusted level of payrolls last month by about 50,000, this implies a positive weather impact on the payroll change of about 50,000.

 

2.    Bounceback from spurious weakness. Even excluding the weather impact, the December employment gain looks to be about 50,000 below the recent trend. In our view, this is implausibly weak relative to other job market measures such as jobless claims, Conference Board labor market perceptions, and most hiring surveys. This could result in a bounceback to an above-trend pace even outside the weather impact, although it is also possible that the December reading will be revised up.

 

We also expect a relatively strong household employment survey. In particular, we see a drop in the unemployment rate from 6.7% to 6.6%, partly because the expiration of emergency unemployment benefits at year-end may have caused another drop in labor force participation and partly because we expect a good increase in household employment, which has likewise underperformed job market indicators such as claims. Admittedly, it is also possible that the employment weakness in the establishment and household survey is genuine, and other labor market indicators will soon turn down as well, but that is not our expectation.

It is ours.

Because, gasp, why is it always weakness that is "spurious"? What about spurious strength, especially one derived from $1 trillion in Fed balance sheet expansion which is now tapering, but not before artificially boosting all those other non-hard data indicators that "spuriously" are showing a far better economy than what is actually happening on the ground? Or did Goldman's crack economists forget about this most critical crutch to growth, which as now see all too well, is being pulled long before the economy was anywhere near "escape velocity" or the now defunct virtuous cycle.

In other words, as we predicted on taper day, now that everyone has seen through the latest attempt to talk up the economy, look for all economic indicators to collapse, serving as "justification" not only for the Fed to halt its tapering, but to ultimately boost the one thing it knows how to do: CTRL-P.

 

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Sat, 02/01/2014 - 16:22 | 4391711 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Okay... I know this looks like a economic contraction.... totally not...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPaDNzQmB-g&sns=em

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 16:27 | 4391722 knukles
knukles's picture

Oh shit!
The sky is falling!
Can I place my orders to sell at the open?

What's really amazing is how little the global equity markets have truly fallen when placed in the perspective of multi-year major gains and the move already afoot to liquidate equity positions.

huh....

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 16:55 | 4391769 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Yet.

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 17:44 | 4391864 drstrangelove73
drstrangelove73's picture

I think the problem is that if you live in Manhattan,or Potomac,Md,you are saying"Everything's fine,what are you people squeaking about?"
Whereas,if you live in Monroe,La. Or Columbus,Ms. You know more 30 something's with advanced degrees who can't find a job than you can shake a stick at.
And,you know what?I don't think amnesty for illegal aliens or an increase in the minimum wage is going to help that very much...

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 18:37 | 4392005 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

Take your beating permabull

 

EM = China    HUH???

 

 

Sun, 02/02/2014 - 00:13 | 4392826 Frank -THE COIN -
Frank -THE COIN -'s picture

When the first big Wave of Margin Selling kicks in we'll really begin to work our way lower. More EM turmoil should get it started.

The usdjpy closed at 102.02. Thats the line in the sand. If it closes under 101.50 we should accelerate down.

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 16:31 | 4391729 booboo
booboo's picture

("Shit. I know shit's bad right now, with all that starving bullshit, and the dust storms, and we are running out of french fries and burrito coverings. But I got a solution"), yea we got this guy, cracker named Benanke, he got a ugly ho wif cracker granny hair and the bitch be smart and can read and shit and she gots a machine that can paint bills like a mofo. President Doowyane Camacho Barak Hussien Obama

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 16:37 | 4391718 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    The SQUID needs Mmoar time to regenerate it's tentacles..

 

   The price is wrong Bob<

  Price fixing > silver, gold, electricity, E/M governments, commodities(cofffee, corn, wheat, soy beans, ect...) The jacuzzi baby "LLoyd Blanken/turd", is running out of excuses! (and alibis') 

  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-26/goldman-sachs-and-the-price-of-...

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 16:30 | 4391728 AG BCN
AG BCN's picture

Rinse, repeat. With Goldman front running every time. Take your money out of the bank and watch these fuckers panic. The next bailout may not come.  

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 16:35 | 4391730 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

I'm sure it's just my wild imagination, but I'm beginning to wonder if these bankers are playing the public for fools.

 

Nawwwww.

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 16:42 | 4391744 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

Look to 2011 as a template...maybe 2 months of 15% correction then FED steps in...won't call it QE but the secret handshake will signal "LOAD UP"

 

Miners, shorts, biotech, long-bonds and volatility did well in January...

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 18:02 | 4391916 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

yep, yellen will "save the day" and get the cover of Time.

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 16:46 | 4391752 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Who needs GDP when one can live High on the Hog from their fat savings yield of 0.01%?

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 16:53 | 4391761 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     I have to admit it. I'm the consumate optimist.

   Unicorn shiting skittles for everyone...  http://imageshack.com/scaled/large/843/8w5l.jpg

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 17:29 | 4391832 Wait What
Wait What's picture

more like this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MX-gW4otXfI

"taste the rainbow"

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 19:23 | 4392117 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Now if you could just superimpose Old Yellen's face on that bride?...  The true nature of how big the "rainbow" shot would end up being if a mirror were on the headboard would have a dramatically different outcum...  Talk about erectile dysfunction?  And that my friend this is the more accurate and potable analogy for the state of the "real" economy.

Good thing the groom doesn't have to taste it either!

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 20:45 | 4392315 hungrydweller
hungrydweller's picture

That is just AWESOME!

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 17:08 | 4391788 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Ya got to start somewhere..I have faith that they'll revise again and again and get it right by the time the final revisions on the subject GDP numbers come out.

Sheeshhhh...estimating that which is not real to begin with...

I'd rather bet on who scratches their crotch first in Sunday's SuperBowl.

 

 

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 17:28 | 4391822 Wait What
Wait What's picture

"The US Economy Is Not Very Exposed to EM"

2011: EM demand will lead global growth

... EM growth overheats...

2014: EM collapse will not affect US economy

TBTF and MSM really think everyone is a lemming who can't remember more than 1 year's history, or put 2 and 2 together.

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 19:50 | 4391833 Sam Spade
Sam Spade's picture

"It is here that Goldman's chief economist, once providing respectable insight, gets downright sad. As in "respected man becoming a clown" sad."

Lines like this are why I will never be able to quit reading ZH.

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 17:32 | 4391837 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Chase is now requiring ID and ownership of the accounts that deposits are made.

Clamp Down Bitchez.

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 17:54 | 4391887 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

Ho Hum...Now for some real news.

SALT LAKE CITY -- A Utah ape that has correctly picked the Super Bowl winner for six straight years predicted Thursday that the Seattle Seahawks will be the next NFL champion.

Eli the ape ran into an enclosure Thursday morning and swiftly knocked down a papier-mache helmet bearing the Seahawks logo, signaling his pick, said Erica Hansen of Hogle Zoo in Salt Lake City.

"He made his pick without any hesitation," Hansen said.

That could mean bad news for Broncos fans. The 13-year-old primate hasn't been wrong since 2006.

Last year, Eli charged out and knocked over a papier-mache goal post decorated with the Ravens logo. Sure enough, the Ravens beat the 49ers 34-31.

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 18:17 | 4391947 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

JPM

EM private sector economies have, on average, significant USD liabilities. This is clear when we look at the net foreign asset position of EM economies, and strip out the central bank’s FX reserves. The resulting position shows a significant negative net foreign asset position. This means that USD strength and EM currency weakness has a negative impact on corporate balance sheets and raises funding costs significantly. Credit risk is also likely to rise as markets evaluate the impact of sovereigns potentially assuming some of the corporate liabilities.

With currency weakness driven primarily by capital outflows, domestic growth conditions deteriorate as funding for credit growth starts to become more expensive and scarce. In this environment, it would not be surprising to see growth weaken. This has the risk of feeding through into credit concerns through two channels: i) Weaker tax revenues and poorer budget deficit assumptions; and ii) Fiscal stimulus to support economic activity, particularly with many EM economies scheduled to have elections this year.

US growth, on the other hand, is creating more headwinds than tailwinds. Specifically, it has produced too little upside for EM exports and EM current accounts, but has created quite a lot of downside from higher US rates and a stronger USD/EM for EM capital accounts.

Goldman

"Financial markets could transmit shocks directly, tightening DM financial conditions in the process... Investors use DM markets as hedging tools during times of stress or because pressures to reduce risk more generally force selling of more liquid assets."

"An undesirable tightening in financial conditions would probably ultimately be met by central bank responses. Falling emerging currencies and weak demand in emerging economies as a result of financial shocks would be a disinflationary combination for developed economies, especially in Europe where inflation is on an alarming downward trend."

Credit Suisse

"Conversely, a broad-based decline in risk appetite associated with global cyclical weakness could mean investors reverse their recent re-engagement with the periphery and lead to a renewed tightening of financial conditions. The more distress in emerging markets becomes systemic rather than idiosyncratic, the greater this risk will become.

One risk is that a cyclical slowdown in emerging markets provides a sufficiently negative shock to euro area export demand to slow economic momentum in Europe. During Europe's crisis the euro area's trade balance against emerging economies rose by 2-3 percentage points of GDP. That may well now be in the process of reversing."

And the half-wits on Twitter, still argue over whther there is an EM crisis (you know who you are).

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 19:29 | 4392138 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I agree with this...that the bulk of the "contagion effect" will be felt in Europe..and have actually been saying this for some time now.

I don't think this is anything new or "surprising" either.

Has GDP "slowed"? In fact this is not true. As of TODAY at least all previous GDP reports have been revised UPWARD.

Is GDP ABOUT to slow? Probably. HOWEVER...very cold weather is good for production..not bad. As Spring approaches...as it inevitably will...you can get a big inventory build then as a result. (make up for all that extra energy consumption.)

Big inventory builds do count towards GDP...so simply saying "aha! you're now going to have sell that inventory!" misses the point.

"Having to sell" is what economic growth is all about.
This article is contradictory...claiming a "hoarding" problem.

Capitalism doesn't "hoard."
If necessary...it goes to E-bay.

One note on the weather...apparently the West Coast has been very hot this winter (including Alaska.) That's why "average" temperatures seem rather benign.
Since the West Coast is not a large energy consumer this...well, obviously already has had a dramatic effect on price....with propane prices soaring and shortages appearing everywhere.

Once this bill comes due...and it will be massive...well, you've already seen a big spike in XOM stock.
CVX has already state they have no intention of lowering their massive cap ex going forward as well.

Ballard Power, PLUG, QTTW...these are all fuel cell plays that have had wicked sell offs the past few weeks. These could be strong buys going into the summer however as the bulk of the USA dumps oil for good.

Sat, 02/01/2014 - 18:39 | 4392007 Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

So what real GDP growth after you subtract the real price inflation rate (5-10%) from those castrated nominal GDP numbers? And that year after year?

Sun, 02/02/2014 - 00:08 | 4392818 billw
billw's picture

I have been waiting for a while for ZH or someone on this site to call BS on the reported GDP. I mean it is TOTAL BS. Starting in the 3rd quarter the BEA anniunced that they would begin to include numbers to account for intellectual property rights , and they added $500 B. If you divide our $16 Trillion economy into that $500 B you see that they have added 3%. If you subtract that nonexistent 3% we have a negative GDP for 2013. I don't believe that any truthful numbers have been reported by the Obama regime on the economy for years now.

Sun, 02/02/2014 - 00:16 | 4392836 Muppet
Muppet's picture

"...in the context of data that has been week for a month..."

week for a month

LOL

 

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 20:58 | 4398261 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I'm going downtown NYC tomorrow. Got a camera and hope to get a shot of a bankster jumping or being pushed from a skyscraper. I'll even settle for one that has already hit the ground. The red would contrast nicely with the newly fallen snow.

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