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Paul Singer's "Vision" Of The Coming "Riot Point" And The Fed's "Formula For Destruction"
We sympathize with traditional stock and bond investors, who are faced with extremely poor choices today. QE has distorted the prices of all traditional asset classes to such an extent that none currently promises a fair return with modest risk.... Because the dominant force in securities-price movements today is government policy, particularly the governmental buying of bonds and stocks, there is a vulnerability to all trading and investing prospects that cannot be assessed or measured with confidence... Since there is no history of Americans losing confidence in the basic soundness of their currency and their government, and since monetary policy today is so manipulative and large, it will be hard to parse the reasons for any particular market moves in 2014.
- Paul Singer, Elliott Management
As always, perhaps the best periodic commentary on the state of the "markets" (even if such a thing has not existed for the past 5 years) and global economy comes from the person whose opinion has not been swayed by fly-by-night screechers and book-peddling pundits who fit in CNBC's octobox and who come fast and are forgotten even faster, and whose 37 year track record at Elliott Management, whose assets he has grown from $1.3 million to $23 billion, speaks for itself: Paul Singer.
Below are the key excerpts from his January letter.
VISION
Imagine how mainstream experts would have reacted to the following set of predictions in 2006: “In two years Lehman will be bankrupt; Merrill and Bear will be acquired in distressed takeunders; Citicorp, AIG, Chrysler, GM, Delphi, Fannie and Freddie will be taken over by the government facing possibly hundreds of billions of dollars of losses; and only 13 global megabanks will survive.”
The 2008 crisis had a lasting and profound impact on virtually the entire developed world. The financial system was brought to the brink of collapse; conditions were created for the radical monetary policy of the past five years and a severely distorted recovery; the plans and dreams of hundreds of millions of people were disrupted, in some cases catastrophically; and societal values were significantly twisted away from individual responsibility toward dependency. In fact, the consequences of the bubble, the bust and the policy aftermath are not yet in full historical view. Despite all the pain, policymakers
refuse to take responsibility for the bubble, the distortions of the bubble years, the ensuing failure to lay the groundwork for strong post-bust growth, the continued riskiness and fragility of the major financial institutions, the lack of appropriate policies to deal with the bust, or their total inability to deal with competitive and technological challenges in the labor market.
It is not that the path toward destruction was impossible to see. On the contrary, a number of people saw the disaster coming, even if they did not all see the timing or the shape of it. The strangest part of the whole series of events is that only a few large professional investors noticed the smoke and shouted “fire.” Policymakers, particularly at the Fed and including (importantly) Janet Yellen, paid some small lip service to the building risks, but they were wedded to their primitive “models” and had a completely inadequate grasp of modern financial instruments, leverage and the interconnectivity of financial institutions. Not only did policymakers fail to understand what was happening and how to deal with the crisis and its aftermath, but also many of those same policymakers, and ALL of the structures and assumptions that prevailed pre-crash, are still in place today. No apologies have been issued. There has been a great deal of partisan back-and-forth and successful lobbying, but sadly the financial system is still not sound. This may be impossible to prove until the next crisis, but you could have said the same about conditions leading up to the last one.
Policymakers were and remain asleep at the wheel. The lack of introspection at the Treasury, the Fed, Congress, the White House and other regulatory bodies is astounding. Instead of taking reasonable and conservative steps to strengthen the financial system and to reach consensus on what is necessary to generate growth, there has been a series of cronyist, ideological, punitive steps that have neither catalyzed the growth that this country needs nor made financial institutions safe. At the same time, the Administration has allowed (and encouraged) the Fed to carry the ball all by itself, heaping praise on it for saving the world at the very time that the White House is shirking its own responsibilities. The Fed’s “dual mandate” (to promote “maximum employment” as well as “price stability”) is bunk in today’s context. It seems as if the entire world is acting as if the Fed actually has a “total mandate” and the rest of the federal government gets to stand around and applaud its heroic efforts. In fact, what we have now is a lopsided recovery, gigantic price risk in financial markets because of QE, and unknown but potentially massive risks of inflation and the ultimate loss of confidence in the major paper currencies, all because the federal government is more interested in ideology than in getting the country back on track, and the Europeans are more interested in preserving the euro than promoting the prosperity of the sovereign nations of Europe.
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For private investment firms like hedge funds, leverage in the modern world is a matter of semi-volition. True, it is much more readily available than in the past, but there are credit departments and initial margins limiting the size of positions. The big financial institutions, on the other hand, found themselves in an environment starting a couple of dozen years ago in which leverage was entirely voluntary, subject to no real constraint because they were not required to post initial margins with each other. Since many of their positions were “hedges” in similar securities, they risk-underwrote those trades using models that projected very little possibility of generating losses. As a result, the entire system has become super-leveraged, super-interconnected and very brittle. Given the benefits of hindsight, we do not have to prove the proposition that the limits of leverage were exceeded in the recent past and that the system was improperly risk-managed by governments and by the managements of financial institutions. It is frustrating, therefore, that no meaningful de-risking of the financial system has occurred since the crisis. You will see a system primed for a rerun of 2008, perhaps even faster and more intense this time.
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MONETARY POLICY GOING FORWARD
QE has created asset price booms, but historically high excess bank reserves are still generally not being lent, and monetary velocity remains relatively low. But last spring, we witnessed the first tangible sign that the Fed may be trapped in its current posture. The Fed cannot retreat due to excessive debt in the system, the fragility of major financial institutions (still opaque and overleveraged) and the prospect that a collapse of bond prices could lead to a quick, deep recession. This situation may be the early stages of a phase in which the Fed is afraid to act because it has the “tiger by the tail,” and perhaps is beginning to realize that the current situation carries significant risks. QE has not generated a sharp upsurge of sustaining and self-reinforcing growth thus far. What it has done is lift stock and asset prices and exacerbate inequality. If investors lose confidence in paper money, as evidenced by either a hard sell-off in one of the major currencies or a sharp fall in bond prices, the Fed and other major central bankers will be in a pickle. If they stop QE and/or raise short-term rates to deal with the loss of confidence, it could throw global markets into a tailspin and the worldwide economy into a severe new recession. However, if they try to deal with the loss of confidence by stepping up QE or keeping interest rates at zero, there could be an explosion in commodity and other asset prices and a sharp acceleration in inflation. What would be the “exit” from extraordinary Fed policy at that point? The current, benign-looking environment (low inflation and
stable economies) is by no means ordained to be the permanent state of things. At the moment, “tapering” is expected to get underway, but that prospect represents a tentative, slight diminution of bond-buying. It contains no real promise of normalizing monetary conditions. If the economy does not light up, the impact of another year of full-bore QE is impossible to predict. Five years and $4 trillion have created economic and moral distortions but very little sustainable value. Maybe the sixth year will produce the “riot point.” Nobody knows, including the Fed.
As we and others have said, the Fed is overly reliant upon models that do not account for real-world elements of instruments, markets and traders in the derivatives age. Models cannot possibly take into account unpredictable interactions among huge positions and traders in new and very complicated instruments. Thus, the Fed should be careful, humble and conservative. Instead, it is just blithely plowing ahead as if it knows exactly what is going on. Intelligent captains sail uncharted waters with extra caution and high alert; only fools think that each mile they sail without sinking the vessel further demonstrates that they are wise and the naysayers were fools. This is a formula for destruction. The crash of 2008 should have been smoking-gun evidence of the folly of this approach, but every mistake leading up to the crash, especially excessive and “invisible” leverage and interest rates that were too low, has been doubled down upon in the years since.
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They buy tanks for the cops.
They know what's coming...
They can buy all the bullets they want, but when the government fails to pay monthly wages, well, then it's game over.
Actually they'll still get paid until money doesn't work and then they'll get paid in rations, and then they'll get paid in what they ransack from each new action, ie your gold, your food, your bullets. Finally they'll get paid by the first juicy chunk of thigh meat off the burning car and so on and so on.
Don't worry; we have Kid Dynamite to save us...
You mean Jeffrey Christian Jr.?
Jimmie Walker? He's due for a comeback.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWToxPni6Ic
Funny shit.
the Fed is overly reliant upon models that do not account for real-world elements of instruments, markets and traders in the derivatives age.
Would we the board rather (a) live up to our fiduciary duties, or (b) take home an extra billion dollars each this Xmas? That's the "real-world" element they missed. All this derivative crap has turned into the largest rent-seeking operation in world economic history. No doubt even Bernie Madoff was running an honest shop until he woke up late one Thursday, had a headache all day, and decided to fudge the books just a little bit to keep everybody happy, for we are all of us honorable men.
Unless the pricing mechanism of free market interest rates is restored through the destruction of a large portion of all debt, the world cannot hope to gain sustainable economic traction.
No riots here. But it's not going to be good for those who are down range of this Militant Kleptocracy when it hits the "Scapegoat" button.
Easily the best assessment of the Fed Folly, put into words, that i have read to date.
There will be no riots in America. Looting, stealing, murder and mayhem yes. But no rioting.
Yes, I agree. Everybody will be politely looting, stealing, murdering and ingaging in generic project mayhem, but, no rioting.
Looter to store owner: Would like a bullet to the head with that or can I just walk out without paying?
Store owner to looter: By all means just walk out, we cater to all neighborhod thugs that way.
Used to be a sign in a store window in my small town.
Shotgun guarded four nights a week. You pick the night.
I never get a Hangover.. Just headaches, upset stomachs Nausea, pain everywhere. never a hangover.
They have modeled parts of the economy in supercomputers. They have identified those parts that can be manipulated. They have invented new ways to manipulate different variables. Think of it as roulette where they make the wheel and the board for each new "money machine." This year they knew they could "play" the Fukushima radiation redirect. It caused the arctic express. How could you make money knowing there was going to be a horrendous cold snap? It is time for absolute full disclosure of weather manipulation, plans and scheduling. Those that know place their bets with unfair foreknowlege gaming predictable outcomes. Nevermind the argument that this shouldn't happen. At least give us a chance you pigs!
Burnham will commit suicide in 3...2...1
Or, in more polite terms, be suicided, in ...
The King is dead; long live the King.
You are basing your premise on something that may not, in fact, be true.
Might be by design
the folly of this approach, but every mistake leading up to the crash, especially excessive and “invisible” leverage and interest rates that were too low, has been doubled down upon in the years since
Hummm....formula for destruction.
Does that include a complimentary exercise?
"Exercise Amalgam Virgo 14-01, a NORAD air-defense exercise, will be conducted in the greater East Rutherford area so interagency partners can practice procedures for responding to airspace violations."
http://freebeacon.com/super-bowl-preparations-to-include-air-defense-exe...
How to Fix the USA
Ok, you want to know, I'll tell you.
In all history, its only FIGHT or FLIGHT.
The problem with 'FIGHT", it that here in the USA it would be 100% certain SUICIDE, which is by defintion fucking stupid.
So that only leaves "FLIGHT". WHich is what smart men have done for all history.
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I'm glad to go into detail here on how to fight, or take it all down, but at the end its just a waste of time, as we know the parasites, want to be taken care, unless there is a 'cleansing', of say 200 million people in the USA, and all the parasites are 'taken out', there simply will just be another nanny-government in a few years.
That's why I say It NOT WORTH DYING for, there is NOTHING in ameriKKKa worth dying for, ... this country was destroyed back in the 1950's, from the inside, and now it rotten to the core.
VOTING can't fix, law's can't, cops can't fix, ... welfare can't fix, nsa can't fix, and RON PAUL can't fix, the USA has BUILT the biggist PONZI in all of world history. The only way out is RESET/PURGE cleansing, on a level not seen in all of prior history.
Mao/Stalin may have done 10-20 million, but the USA will see 200 million dead, which is why I say "FLIGHT".
The only thing stupid satoshi is you.Who says that every cop or military personel will carry out unlawful orders,I think a lot of them will either refuse or rebel.They will have to declare martial law or the politicians in states that allow it will be recalled.
since the 1990's all cops and soliders and judges, are asked ... will you kill us citizens if ordered?
If you say NO, then your appliciation is tossed in the trash.
Today there is NOT a single judge, cop, or soldier on the PAYROLL that will not take you to CAMP-FEMA and DOG-YOU.
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Post 1990's all COP-JOBS have been screened, .. if your not a sociopath, ... your a little person.
People say a lot of things,most of the time they don't do it you FUCKING IDIOT,Now go take your meds.
no reason to get personally offensive you dirty maggot infested asshole. Let's be civil here.
Fuck you dickhead,it's obvious that you spend too much time on the wrong side of the glory hole and now you have brain damage.Satoshi is fucking idiot and you are too.
Kiss me my love.
Prove it dickhead "since the 1990's all cops and soliders and judges, are asked ... will you kill us citizens if ordered?"
This is wild talk, rumor-mongering. We would have heard about it. If millions of cops, soldiers and judges had been asked this, thousands at least, maybe hundreds of thousands, would have been outraged by it and would have spoken out.
And yet, this issue really is on the table, isn't it? Will that day come? On that day, where will their loyalty lie? Will it be to the people they came from and supposedly work for and serve? To the Constitution they swore to uphold? Or will their loyalty finally just be to their chain of command and their paycheck?
It is foreseeable that many will have to face just such a choice in the years ahead. It will matter greatly what answers they come to, or rather perhaps at what threshold of outrage will they change their answers.
Oath Keepers is a movement of present and retired service personnel who pledge to honor their oath by refusing to obey unlawful or unconstitutional orders, including orders to blockade, round up or fire on the public or to confiscate our weapons. Has anyone on this list had a personal experience with this group or its members?
If Russian and China are just itching to play, the ponzi is growing, just where does one go satoshi911?
I have said on many occasions the world is full of wonderful places.
Hell the south side of Crete is one of the sweetest places on earth, and most villages can only be gotten to by mule, the women, the retsina, the olives the beach, ... heaven on earth, and no fucking 'development'. The bread, the feta, ... :)
Don't kid yourself the world is full of remote paradise.
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New Zealand, Australia, ... remote northern myanmar, ... southern china, ... are all undeveloped roadless areas where a guy with $500/month can be a king. I might add if your too lazy to learn a new language then go to NZ or AU, but then you need to have $500k, just to enter.
Souther America,... is full of heaven, even Africa has heaven if you can show people respect and marry the daughter of the meanest strongest father in the village, ... the trick in Africa is to always make sure the meanest guy in the village is watching your back, aka getting $1/day from you.
There are too many good places, I fond of WARMTH, I'm fond of women 1/2 my age that will fuck me with the thought of "NO", not even in their vocabulary.
Probably the biggest consistent LIE spread on ZH by the GS bots is that the entire world sucks, just like Israel/USA, ... no it doesn't 90% of the world is NOT like ISrael/USA (PRISON).
GO TRAVEL, and stay on the back dirt roads, ... you will never find paradise on a black-top road.
No matter where you go the progressives will show up eventually.....then the insidious process starts all over again.
You need to understand everywhere has good places.
But the civil war is coming to USA, cuz it hasn't had a reset in 140 years,
CHINA/RUSSIA just had their reset in the last 50 years,
Thus as long as your remote in CHINA/RUSSIA, your way better off than anywhere in the USA in the coming civil war.
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The USA cops are 100X more assholes than china/russia cops, don't kid yourself, USA/ISRAEL are the meanest assholes on earth that see everyone as a PALESTINIAN.
In china if a cop kills someones kid that cop is a dead man in 24 hours, and in russia its same-same,
In the USA a cop can beat a granny or a 4 year old girl, and nobody will even 'speak-up', the USA man lost his balls long ago.
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Did I mention that the USA sucks and 80% of the people who live there?
When I return to remote places now in the USA, all I see is METH-HEADS, ... sorry but there is no place in the USA that I feel 'comfy', ... and then the fucking women, what a high maintenance pain in the ass are western women.
Satoshi - Your commentary is filled with grandiosity, your a exhibiting signs of being manic. Tell me, how did the USA murder 100 M people? Second, how would the U.S. government kill 200 M people in America, especially when it's citizens are the most armed on earth? Even all out nuclear war scenarios put the death toll at a third of that number.
We seem to be following a very similar trajectory as the Soviet Union but as a superpower and flash empire the negative sentiment toward us seems far less than how the Russians were viewed. Did Russia INVEST in anything outside of itself? They are learning trade trumps conquest and there is disagreement between Putin and Medevev, Putin being old school (Putin is sharp as a tack in consolidation of energy/power).
American investment spans the globe, even as a failed empire individual investors follow money. We follow the god of money. It is at times hugely detrimental because it does create awful busts and amazing booms. I must say the 1980's and 1990's America was the funnest place to live bar none and I would wager best in history to live in to date period. Now, well not so much, its the bust phase of the buggest boom ever.
Political dissidents are jailed in China. How about Falung Gong? You see riots in China several times a year. You cannot speak your mind freely and publically as in the USA. How about that censorship in China? Yeah thats just so awsome isnt it? Freedom of speech Is part of the culture and it is this along with the instant communication ability due to the Internet which is why we will recover far faster than the Soviets. And you can thank America that the Chinese are lifted out of poverty. The Chinese are shrewd traders and learn fast. You really think they want to see 200 M U.S. consumers of their product dead? now that I mention it does it benefit anybody nowadays to see 200 M less consumers when the world is stalled at growth? Conquest to fill government coffers these days happens economically, MAD changed that paradigm.
Look, as long as we all have assholes we're all still imperfect monkeys with a few neat tools. We seem to be evolving toward existing in our original state of energy. Cold wars have mainly replaced hot ones, because we pay politicians to lie to us and when collectively we mess up (yes the USA certainly has the last couple decades) governments (like individuals) externalize and point fingers.
Your point on the police state is correct, another wealth extraction mechanism of the state. But this like the far more brutal Soviet or Chinese version cannot last, once the money is gone these dissapear.
The world is in a massive evolutionary stage with those in charge attempting to retain the status quo. It never works, the only constant in physics is change. America has legions of problems discussed here often. But your constant "grass is greener" thinking is static, 2D thinking. Life is dynamic. The world is a very dangerous place at the moment. If one wishes to live rural, they can do so here and also see no cops and live cheaply.
During this big evolutionary cycle, I am sure we will see horrors, if all out nuclear war happens, 1/3 will die. I hate to sound obtuse but consider in the past you could live in a town or village where 100% casualties could occur (or perhaps some got to live on as slaves). I doubt this will happen but if it does, life will go on.
I wish you and people of all stripes and nations well. Certainly chasing the money has led us all globally a bit astray. However, attempting perpetual growth and evolution is baked into our DNA. I stay awake and prepared for the ongoing hard times, but the wonders coming of where we are collectively headed after keeps me excited. Endless paranoia is no way to live son. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Thanks for letting me speak for such a long time on this thread.
You open by saying "fight" would be 100% suicide, and you close by saying that the US will see 200 mm dead, which is only 67% suicide.
I was with you until then...
BTW, if you know how to fight, your chances improve expoententially.
I said that the man who fights, is 100% suicidal.
Most american's will not fight, they will be simply be led to the slaughter like sheep.
AmeriKKKan's fighting my ASS, this is the NAZI's your up against, they led the Jews to the slaughter, before and they'll do it again, and nobody will fight back,... the only difference between 1930's germany and post 2016 America is today, everybody that ain't cop is a jew in the USA.
This POST smells like 'common sense', but guess what? There is nothing rational about the USA economy, and printing FIAT to the moon, its how all mercantile economy's die.
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Eventually, and we dont' know when, eventually the producers will demand GOLD for food and oil, and then once the largest welfare state in world history, quits getting free FOOD&OIL, then it will implode.
When? When something better than the USD appears. Probably why they offshored the 'GOLD', so that it couldn't be traded, leaving only the USD.
The EURO is largely an IMF/US post NAZI-HITLER creation, the chinese are under IMF spell, only PUTIN stand's alone in opposition to the New World Order.
They already plan to do away with the USD, ... that's why I call ZH a 'honey-pot' for many reasons, but the FED sure they print to INFINITE, but so will IMF-SDR print to INFINITE, cuz its the only way to make the New World Order run.
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If & When the USD goes out of popularity, they'll say 'look here is IMF-SDR, backed by gold', ... and all will remain same-same, with the same-same people in power.
That's why the DHS/FEMA have bought the bullets, its just a 'statement', "Don't even bother, you can't win,..." These guys are playing the long battle, and the people here on ZH don't even have the ball's to talk about war, instead they talk about LAW, and CODE, and HONOR, shit that don't mean SHIT today, ...
The New World Order has arrived, its fucking here now, ... deal with it.
So if the dollar becomes worthless then what are they going to pay DHS employees with ? People are waking up but the majority still think things will turn out ok,what do you think people will do when they see their future crumble and their hard work saved in dollars destroyed ? You have no imagination,stop and think about someone you know who thinks everything will be ok and then it collapses,what will they do ? You think they will say gee guys it's ok,I know you tried. HAHAH Think again
Everything is a 'done deal', the FED will print to cover US DEBT to infinity, pay DHS to murder YOU.
One day the USD fail's, the next morning the IMF-SDR goes live and US DEBT is coverd for ever, DHS payroll never misses a beat.
You still go to CAMP-FEMA and die.
You're a stupid fuck,do us all a favor and go kill yourself.
No imagination,the FEMA camps would be for DHS families to go to so the thugs wouldn't have to worry about them.If they send out the thugs,the thugs will be sent back in body bags.
Bitcoin is backed by NOTHING
FED USD to the moon is backed by NOTHING
Don't you people see that we're in the New World Order, ... where nothing has to be be backed, that's OLD-THINK, .. today is new think, where the FED, or IMF-SDR tomorrow will print to INFINITE, just like BITCOIN 2.0 will 'mine' to infinite, and the monkeys will accept.
What's to fight? So long as virtual currency or bit's can purchase food&oil, and pussy, ... what's to fight?
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Of course its NOT rational, but its really same-same for +100 years, before we had 100/1 fractional reserve and now we have a fractional reserve system backed by nothing "INFINITE/ZERO", and its working, ... because its backed by MURDER.
100 monkey is alive and well, so long as monkeys see blood or fear death, they can be sold any fucking scheme.
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Solution? Life is short, go live in a place far from the PONZI bullshit.
The USD is backed by something ... a billion rounds of ammo. What pisses me off is that those who use the ammo don't understand that they are the ones being leached
The US-MIL gets the finest retirement plan on earth. I have lots of special-forces friends that retired at 36 years old and get +$6k/month for life with cost of living free health care, and COMEX priv for life.
So yep, keep telling yourself that the guy holding the gun and ammo is hurting, ... the reason that this system works and the USD hasn't collapsed is because every NAZI is on the payroll.
[ Free entrance to all national parks, free access to bases for life, which means private beaches at Camp Pendelton, beaches that the PUBLIC will never fucking see. ]
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The FBI, DEA, FEMA, and DHS ... also get gold plated pensions, after putting in very few years.
Make no mistake that if your not COP or MIL, then your just a little shit.
Prove it dickhead "The US-MIL gets the finest retirement plan on earth. I have lots of special-forces friends that retired at 36 years old and get +$6k/month for life with cost of living free health care, and COMEX priv for life.
Satoshi - Do you call your special forces friends hairlips also?
i call BS on your freakin claim:
http://militarybenefits.info/2013-veterans-pension-rate-table/
They simply know that in a fractional reserve banking system THEY HAVE NO OTHER CHOICE but to continue
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That's right, long ago when the started it was 100/1 fractional reserve, .. or 17/1, ... then 200/1, .. today its INFINITE/ZERO, meaning they can create unlimited USD's, and have zero to back it up.
Of course this is logical,
Student's of ROME, know that the Roman coin, went from pure GOLD, to lead or worse, eventually the ROMAN coin became so worthless nobody would accept it,
Now of course the FED creates 'bits', not unlike BITCOIN, with nothing to see, its hard for the merchant to say "NO", so long as the merchant can BUY product to resell with these electronic-credits, ... the game goes on.
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FED knows, ... but if they don't play somebody else will, there are dozen's of ASSHOLES that would love to be in the FED's position of power.
The game goes on, soon the FED will pass the torch to IMF-SDR, as RUSSIAN and CHINA are begging such, ... they want to be in on the FUN.
ONCE it goes to IMF-SDR then the 'gang of 8' can all be issued to INFINITE, and the world will rejoice and ZH bots will say "FED IS DEAD"....
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Make no mistake, if BITCOIN can have value, then the USD can have value forever, backed by nothing.
You're all over the place,you need to take your meds.
Bitcoin has no value, just as the FRN has no value.
This is bullshit. Not intentionally - but because Singer --- and virtually every finance guru and economist is ignoring the REAL REASON for QE + ZIRP.
The DISEASE is the end of CHEAP OIL - they symptoms are the financial crisis.
High energy prices = less consumption because everything including the fuel in your tank costs more = layoffs = less tax revenue = government cutbacks, layoffs and debt increases = less consumption = more layoffs = less taxes ===== economic death spiral.
Compounding the problem is the fact that a weak labour market means real wages drop - as they are across the world right now - that means everything is more expensive and your buying power is dropping at the same time.
Governments recognize this and are trying to offset with debt, easy lending (they are purposely inflating bubbles), lower interest rates and money printing.
Of course they will fail - because the disease is expensive oil. And there is no substitute
The economic death spiral will accelerate when the QE and ZIRP no longer have any effect and the confidence game collapses.
This moment will be known as the end of the industrial revolution by the few who survive.
This is not a Hollywood movie where the hero saves the day. This is the reality we are facing.
Singer needs to watch this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFyTSiCXWEE
Then he will understand why Central Banks are engaging in suicide policies
Bingo. We are well past the peak of cheap oil.
"Beyond the Peak"...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2FPZrbYWK0#t=8622
I agree, yet let's remember how humanity has a will to survive. We will man the power plants. We will farm crops. Will the obese survive? Will the elderly survive? Will the dumb survive? I think everyone's chances are limited on how much time they are willing to spend learning. The strong will survive, and with them, a few cans of oil.
If a college professor had the balls to mention this concept simplified by notarocketscientist maybe human civilization stood a remote chance
If a college professor told the truth, he would lose his tenure.
Enough said.
NWO Legacy: Ignore OIL & GOLD
Rocket-Sci,.. your right, but your missing the BIG picture, to that I say FUCK GOLD and FUCK OIL
You see RS, that once the NWO was able to GRAB the OIL, and they did, it catipulted them to the next level in the PONZI, and same with GOLD, once they had the GOLD, its on to the next level.
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There is PLENTY of oil, if you get all the little people out of their car's, the system likes the current system, OIL is just part of THEFT, but its not the only reason for theft.
It's THEFT of EVERYTHING that the NWO crowd has in mind, once you have paper-money that the entire world MUST accept forever, that is better than gold or oil, now that they have computers to move the phony wealth around in a nano-second its even better.
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All backed by a NUKE/GUN to the worlds head, its all a DONE deal, they only care about OIL for one reason, to run the US-MIL, guess what? The USA-MIL has 200 years of OIL, and 500 years of COAL, and as physicist, I can tell you that in 500 years, we will have solved the fusion problem, meaning cheap hydrogen from water forever.
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Right now, the NWO crowd is just setting up a legacy for their SPAWN.
The PTB always thinks out 10+ generations, and normal folk barley think out 1 generation, this is what makes them so different.
I started as a physics major, but discovered that I was not smart enough. Switched to engineering. I recently hired an Engineering Physics major and I like to embarrass him by remarking to others how smart he is and that he took quantum mechanics.
his missing what?
http://theoatmeal.com/comics/misspelling
Much like using price controls during hyperinflation, they do like to attack the symptom rather than the disease.
The most disturbing part of the so called "energy crisis" and "peak cheap oil" is that there ARE substitutes, but they have been buried in the name of the petrodollar, hence why you never hear about them coming to market. Any true competitor to the current energy industry is met with a team of men in black with loaded pistols and a briefcase full of $1million cash.
"The economic death spiral will accelerate when the QE and ZIRP no longer have any effect and the confidence game collapses."
Notarocketscientist....."Being the only economic climate psychiatrist that i know of amongst us here at ZH and beyond, albeit as an amateur, it is my reponsibility in this new scientific field to impress that in my opinion, economic climate psychiatry should be consulted more often alongside the economic sciences.."
*economic climate psychiatry is not rocket science.
and yet it is practically never employed, and,hardly anyone except me knows about it or some of the more elite at ZH like yourself??
One day in the future, it will be the job of the economic climate psychiatrist's to forster research into such things as the study of chemical imbalances in the economy. For instance, the overproduction of chemicals like gunpowder, or depleted uranium would indicate to a trained economic climate psychiatrist that the patient needs to have their chemicals corrected. The production of chemicals like honey, or lemon juice might need to increase to effect a cure in some regions as an example.
There are allready many ways that economic climate psychiatry can be used, even at these early stages of growth in this new and cutting edge science.
In any case, like yourself, i agree it might allready be too late due to QE and ZIRP etc..
It took the 200+ million years of the carbonferrous era to create and store the suns energy (in oil) which we have burned through in less than 120 years.
This was a one time planetary event, all that you see about you was possible because of that fluke of nature. Think of the massive growth since the advent of the internal cumbustion engine.
Now imagine the current world changing to fit the available energy (oil). reality dictates it must assert its affect.
Without a huge supply of cheap energy, the status quo falls.
You are not the only one to raise the energy issue.
I have spent 8+ years informing people of the economic & social implications of 'peak fossil energy'.
Frankly, I'm amazed that someone with access to far more data than myself has not already published a paper explaining how 'peak energy' was the hidden trigger behind the financial collapse of 2007-8. The widespread fraud carried out by our coin-operated criminal politicans and banksters simply exacerbated the growing crises and was probably unintended but happened due to greed and incompetence.
But you know, if you step back a little further to get an even wider view, you can see that peak energy itself is overshadowed and exacerbated by "excess global population".
In this context I am sure that our "elected" governments in the US, UK, Europe and elsewhere are preparing for a show down with their own citizens which will result in far less democratic systems of government and smaller populations. In parallel to this, they are planning for a new war against developing countries, again to reduce the global population and to seize control of what's left. I think many of us can feel a rise in temperature regarding geo-politics.
Dealing with overpopulation will help to ensure that the fossil fuels left will last long enough for some great new form of cheap, green energy to emerge. At this point economic growth and prosperity can resume. But the layers of totalitarianism will not be rolled back. They are here to stay, absent revolution.
Another blind "expert" who can't see a very well-planned end-game money-printing looting spree that enriches bankers then kills the currency.
"Since there is no history of Americans losing confidence in the basic soundness of their currency"
Sure there is, but it was 120 or so yrs ago, long since forgotten.
But it's about to happen again, for the very same reasons (excessive printing), and all the real insiders know it.
I have no respect for any so-called "expert" who can't see the end-game looting spree, or sees it but refuses to adimit it.
This is why I refuse to WRITE in an intellectual style.
Fuck the god damn intellectuals.
This is a KLEPTOCRACY, a government ran by double-digit IQ criminals, to attempt to intellectualize rape & robbery is fucking stupid, and ZH is sadly the ring leader in this circus.
KISS - KEEP IT SIMPLE FOLKS - Cuz these crimes are in fact very fucking simple, ... but for ZH to bring out the experts and talk shit 24/7/365 ... only a goldman-sachs mother could buy this fucking bullshit.
Singer is still a predatory a**hole buying up distressed debt and weasling it into a profit ... he may make some valid points but he is a part of the problem not the solution .
Dual mandate based on a relationship (Philips Curve) that has never existed. Didn't work for Volker. Didn't work for Greenspan. Hasn't work for Bernanke. Won't work for Yellen. Feels like we are all part of some grand experiment - stuck inside an Erlenmeyer flask hovering over a bunsen burner.
This dovetails with a recent blog post questioning whether we have grown to complacent by the extraordinary actions taken by central banks and governments over the last six years. This is a key question we must face. Have these actions really worked or merely masked over major flaws and problems?
By not demanding the right kind of growth and by throwing money at problems we have only delayed and added to festering issues that face us in the future. In what most of us view as a fast moving world many people have come to think if it doesn't happen today or in the next few weeks it is simply not going to happen at all. More on this complacency and the dangers ahead in the post below,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/01/have-we-been-lulled-into-complace...
As always, I thank you for link posted. The volume of information is expanding in an exponental manner. One person cannot find and process all pertinant data.
I have yet to waste my time following a recomended link posted here on ZH. It also lends credence to the opinion expressed.
As a community it increases our effectivness.
The president and his men are not stupid.
They know that real growth over the long term is now impossible. They know the financial system can't be fixed. They know that the real problem is an energy one. They are primarily concerned with staying in power. They want to ensure that they will be the ones to declare a state of emergency when the system finally blows up.
Some people are not only wakng up, but they are having a lot of fun while doing it.
~"We sympathize with traditional stock and bond investors, who are faced with extremely poor choices today. QE has distorted the prices of all traditional asset classes to such an extent that none currently promises a fair return with modest risk.... Because the dominant force in securities-price movements today is government policy, particularly the governmental buying of bonds and stocks, there is a vulnerability to all trading and investing prospects that cannot be assessed or measured with confidence... Since there is no history of Americans losing confidence in the basic soundness of their currency and their government, and since monetary policy today is so manipulative and large, it will be hard to parse the reasons for any particular market moves in 2014."~
No shit, Sherlock.
china's failed strategy against the mongolians
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvZHtx8GkwU
Being the only economic climate psychiatrist that i know of amongst us here at ZH and beyond, albeit as an amateur, it is my reponsibility in this new scientific field to impress that in my opinion, economic climate psychiatry should be consulted more often alongside the economic sciences..
Forensic economic psychiatry might be used in the case of those who have QE disorder.
The ones to change the messed up system need to be the young. Old people have little incentive and little future anyway.
We aren't talking about a flooded basement. This is your country. People went to a lot of trouble to give you this country. Are you just going to piss it away because you are old? Can't you do something. The young people are unemployed, undereducated and saddled with a huge bill due to college and a tax bill that "the old people" ran up - fell for it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5yZhh2leRJA
Please find a couple hours and watch this video done to try to prove chemtrails are real, and there appears to be a sophisticated war underway, and the ruling elite (the federal reserve) are the opposition. Do you understand how serious this is? America sets the standard for the world. Without America, and what it stood for, there will be no escape, ever, from fascism/corporatism/oligarchy...led by murderous madmen.
Paul Singer is totally correct, as are the countless articles and comments on ZH about this fiasco.
However, where the dissenters have failed is in putting forward alternative policy actions when the financial tsunami first hit.
This leaves the door wide open for the likes of Bernanke and countless other true believers of his ilk to claim that whatever problems have been created by their money-printing-market-distortion party, it would have been a million times worse without them. They only have to claim that the complete global financial system would have imploded without TARP, QE and Zirp - and by extension USD billions lost - and all the little chickens in MSM quickly fall into line. At most, they limit dissent to grumbles.
For the anti-Establishment ideas to gain support, there needs to be a clearly articulated alternative set of policy actions on the table which blows the Establishent's policies out of the water. I have not seen this.
We are where we are because nobody has published a credible alternative.
smacker, you do not seem to realise that what we have here is a case of Stolkholm syndrome with a little bit of Stanford University prison experiment sprinkled on top.
There are no open doors here. The criminals need to resort to increasing crime and escalating control tactics to remove any possibility of what you call "policies" which might diminish their disease.
A decent forensic economic psychiatrist would help, but getting one in through any door would be like trying to get through the eye of a needle.
Medicince and science, in particular forensic economic psychiatry is the only way to effect a cure in my opinion when the afflicted by QE are so unbeliavably sick. A trained forensic economic psychiatrist would quickly identify possible cures. I am only an amateur in this field.
First, we need to admit there is a psychiatric medical condition amongst them there in those circles that might spread by a contagion. This is my reason for suggesting Stockholm syndrome might be at work here.
Whatever I may think of your "economic psychiatry" theory, nothing you've written changes what I previously wrote.
It remains true that no case has been presented which shows that alternative policies after 2007-8 would have been far better than those introduced by the current gangs of criminals in government, banking and MSM.
If you'd like to do that ...please go ahead ...I'm all eyes and ears :-)
Great Rob Kirby interview by Greg Hunter:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEhlH_YlQlc
completly out of wack on topic , all retard..
PRO shares are showing me something.
the splits in AGQ and SVXY are showing this is A SET UP correction
not the real thing.
I don,t really understand the options after the split , and don't really know how to play this...but fucking amazingly we are going back up.
I am thinking some AGQ 2016 call,,,, help..
And buying the PONZI. SVXY at 50 ?