Goldman Warns Global Slowdown Getting "More Serious"

Tyler Durden's picture


Goldman's Global Leading Indicator's January reading and the latest revisions to previous months paint a significantly softer picture of global growth placing the global industrial cycle clearly in the ‘Slowdown’ phase. They add, rather ominously, While the initial shift into ‘Slowdown’ (which we first noted in October) had a fairly idiosyncratic flavor, the recent growth deceleration now looks more serious than in previous months. Of course, as we noted yesterday, Jan Hatzius us rapidly bringing his optimistic forecasts back to this slowdown reality.


Swirlogram solidly in "slowdown" phase...


Via Goldman Sachs,

The January reading and the latest revisions to previous months paint a significantly softer picture of global growth and the GLI now locates the global industrial cycle clearly in the ‘Slowdown’ phase. Since GLI Momentum peaked in August 2013 at 0.39%, it has slowed by about 20bps to 0.19% currently. While the initial shift into ‘Slowdown’ (which we first noted in September) had a fairly idiosyncratic flavor, with the AUD and CAD TWI aggregate the biggest driver, several additional components have now worsened too, further substantiating the GLI shift into ‘Slowdown’.


The January Final GLI places the global industrial cycle clearly in the ‘Slowdown’ phase, with positive but decreasing Momentum. Previous GLI readings had already highlighted that global activity growth peaked in August and the latest revisions show the subsequent deterioration more visibly. Some idiosyncratic factors might have had a hand in amplifying the current softness, but still the recent growth deceleration now looks more serious than in previous months.


Source: Goldman Sachs

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Mon, 02/03/2014 - 20:31 | 4398116 knukles
knukles's picture


.......waving hands in air.........

where's the popcron?
bout time, brothers and sisters

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 20:33 | 4398127 J S Bach
J S Bach's picture

This could actually be the first time in history that Goldman has spoken the truth.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 21:08 | 4398296 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

how considerate of goldman.  is it time to mothball the scaffolds and guillotines?

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 05:19 | 4399414 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Indeed it is, right after we collect all the /sarc that's been dropped along the way.

Fair warning, it's gone super-critical and it's melting through the concrete now.

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 03:13 | 4399301 vie
vie's picture

Makes you suspicious doesn't it.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 21:11 | 4398312 Rentier88
Rentier88's picture

I love it crash and burn stock markets!

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 22:34 | 4398623 The Dunce
The Dunce's picture

Goldman Sachs.  What a group of satanic bastards.  I don't trust a word they say.  When's the last time they got something right?  Assholes.

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 05:41 | 4399392 TheGoldMyth
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(Lasr edit:) knukles: Excuse me for interrupting, but please do not wave your hands in the air, or you will stir up the Carbon Dioxide and dilute it. We need as much of it as we can get if Goldman recon there will be a slowdown that controls how much Carbon Dioxide go's into the air.

So don't worry, science will help.... If it is true what the experts say in the article, then we can expect more colder weather because slow economies do not burn much fossil fuel. Slowiing economies mean families cannot burn coal to stay warm,... and that stops fresh Carbon Dioxide from getting into the atmosphere to make some global warming, or even local warming.

If you don't believe me, i am fine with that. ..Us amateur economic climate scientists do it tough. We have grown accustomed to it.) Everyone keeps asking the ordinary climate scientists for advice, and they don't know that when the economy crashes, it puts less CO2 into the air. ..........They are not economic climate scientists so they don't understand that economics, controls how much Carbon goes into the air, apart from carbon from explosions in wars....That's a different climate scientist called a 'military climate scientist'.... Anyway, thanks, it is all part of the work we do and it is my responsibility to do my part.. (Starship Troopers)

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 05:53 | 4399441 TheGoldMyth
TheGoldMyth's picture

Nero created CO2 in large ammounts when Romes slow economy was creating less CO2 due to massive increases in the cost of fire wood that had a negative effect on consumption of firewood and the CO2 that is released.....that later causing cold weather is another example of cold weather caused by a slow down in the economy. The desperate measures he felt he had to take to create more carbon dioxide to warm the climate up again is something best discussed fully at another time.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 20:33 | 4398117 TruthInSunshine
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I don't trust anything Goldman writes/says unless it bears Tom Stolper's initials, damnit.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 20:36 | 4398133 akak
akak's picture

Wait .... what, no more 'recovery'?

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 02:15 | 4399210 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

war is peace - long soup lines are recovery!1
1may now be represented by exceedingly high foodstamps 'clients'

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 03:14 | 4399303 vie
vie's picture

Recovery of Socialism.  

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 05:46 | 4399434 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

We fed the green shoots QE, when all they really needed was sunshine.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 20:37 | 4398152 RonBurgundy
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Damn snow!

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 20:37 | 4398153 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Can't trust a firm that does God's work.  Nope, ...

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 05:09 | 4399403 The Heart
The Heart's picture

"Can't trust a firm that does God's work."

True that. Especially when the god is money -- a stupid piece of paper that a bunch of bankster criminals convinced the world it was worth something other than, a pretty painted piece of paper.

Gonna make good fire starting material pretty soon....that god goes back to whence it came...and real money will emerge.

Got gold and Silver?


Mon, 02/03/2014 - 20:37 | 4398157 Atomizer
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Japan's Debt Problem Visualized


Mon, 02/03/2014 - 22:12 | 4398532 cornflakesdisease
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Thanks, you learn more on Zerohedge from the comments, then you do the articles!

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 07:40 | 4399503 JoBob
JoBob's picture

THAN you do...

THAN you do...

THAN you do...



Mon, 02/03/2014 - 20:43 | 4398179 JFKFC
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Bullish! BTFD!!!

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 20:42 | 4398183 order66
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Whew...glad they cleared that up. Couldn't quite tell by the utter collapse of the Baltic and the reverse repo epidemic.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 20:43 | 4398187 satoshi911
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What no /sarc, /snide head-line?

Show this AIPAC front corporation some disrespect.


Mon, 02/03/2014 - 20:43 | 4398189 Truther
Truther's picture

Let it crater already. I hate this shit and the assholes that run it.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 20:47 | 4398209 Pheonyte
Pheonyte's picture

Asia seems to agree. The Nikkei is getting pulverized.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 23:17 | 4398746 intotheblack
intotheblack's picture

Nonsense. Orderly wind-down. Profit taking. Lot of buying opportunities. Remain calm. All is well.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 20:48 | 4398212 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

Must be running out of muppets.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 20:51 | 4398222 q99x2
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Arrest Loyd Blankfein. Lock the pervert up and convert the Goldman offices into free range chicken ranches.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 20:58 | 4398227 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Schrodinger's Cat could be in the GS Swirlogram 3rd quadrant by now ?  Has anyone seen it lately ?  Can it exist in two quadrants at the same time ?  Seen Nikkei lately ?

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 21:00 | 4398267 James T. Kirk
James T. Kirk's picture

As long as you only look at it out of the corner of your eye, and not too closely. Wow, quantum economics...... I GET IT!!! No wonder no one is being prosecuted.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 21:12 | 4398314 knukles
knukles's picture

My cat!
Didju find my cat?
Oh, you did? 
Oh no, you can keep it.

Say, is it alive or dead?

If you like Schrodinger's cat, you can keep Schrodinger's cat.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 20:53 | 4398233 irishlink
irishlink's picture

With DB earlier comments from Jim Reid we have to wonder are they engineering a help Yellen untaper situation so that the derivative house of cards does not collapse . Sometimes the truth is a usefull tool

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 21:03 | 4398283 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Can anyone read that first graph? Was it made before or after pot became legal?

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 21:03 | 4398288 starman
starman's picture

Im warning Goldman, run!

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 21:07 | 4398298 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

This is bullish for stocks right guys?



Mon, 02/03/2014 - 21:26 | 4398376 Obama_4_Dictator
Obama_4_Dictator's picture

Goldman can suck my goldmember.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 21:33 | 4398395 disabledvet
Tue, 02/04/2014 - 02:13 | 4399203 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Is that a joke? If you want to sell covered calls of LMT, by all means, they should not long from now end up down a good 10.00 from the 135 strike so even if still in the money for March expiry you could buy back to cover, but given the acceleration of moves... it could easily stay out of the money at that time.

If you're feeling a little adventurous perhaps March puts at strike 145 may net you 20% to 50% profit but I'd watch that volatility & unload 'em fast if you can do so for profit.


As if.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 21:40 | 4398414 The Econ Ideal
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Swirling Ponzi schemes

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 21:51 | 4398462 dragoneyes74
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I'd like to update my map for the ES.

If you draw a trendline from the Oct 2011 lows thru the Nov 2012 lows it currently runs thru 1660-ish.  It would feel incomplete if this correction didn't tag that trendline, but my the time we got there it will likely be close to the horizontal support at 1690.  Fortunately for the bulls we have a debt ceiling resolution in a few weeks, which should provide a reason to reverse.  Also, in March, I would bet my life (*I will not be betting my life) that Yellen will temporarily halt the taper in her first meeting.  For these two reasons I believe we see a spring time short-covering rally that will take us all the way back to the 1790-1810 area, at which point it is very possible that we stall out and form a broad six-month head-and-shoulders pattern that marks the top of the stock market bubble in the QE era (this, of course, will depend on Yellen not INCREASING QE).  In the meantime, if we get a bounce into the 1754-1767 area, I think you scale back up your short position and look for a move to the 200-day around 1705/1710.  Hopefully, we get that bounce.  At any rate, there's likely to be a bounce off the 200-day.  At that point I'd look for one more possible move down to that weekly uptrendline before it reverses upward for the spring rally.  The real trouble doesn't begin until we lose that weekly uptrendline from the 2011/2012 lows.  When that happens with force it's game over.  This is awfully specific.  I doubt it will play out like this exactly, but this is the map I have at the moment to be adjusted accordingly.  Btw, if there's anyone left who thinks technical analysis has no merit, how come the two ES stopping areas so far were within one point of technical spots?   

I was lucky enough to scratch my gold long today.  That doesn't make me bearish.  It just means I made a bad entry and want to regroup.  I will play the breakout in whatever direction it chooses: over 1275-ish, or under 1230-ish.  However, I will be doing it small and then adding once it proves what direction it wants to go.  I still don't like silver lagging, or the fact that the dollar may choose up soon.  Watching closely.  And I will be on guard for a fake-out.  Maybe it happens on NFP day.  


Tue, 02/04/2014 - 02:04 | 4399183 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

unless you're re-scaling price & date to non-linear & unless you are correlating the market moves to news items or changes in specific commodities, companies, etc., this "trend" line is meaningless drivel.

The #1 driver of pushing the market down is exploiting existing weakness & getting the major elites short while the sheeple are in long, voluntarily or forced through pension funds.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 21:53 | 4398472 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

"Sell all your assets to us, we will purchase them". Fuck GS, it's just a scare tactic to rob their clients more.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 22:46 | 4398654 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

But on the other hand we still have five fingers. Porninjection of that swirlogram is hazardous to your eyes not to mention your wealth.

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 00:03 | 4398880 pilager
pilager's picture

Maybe now I can get my own personal Greek

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 00:23 | 4398938 ParaZite
ParaZite's picture

Away go troubles, down the drain... 

Jiggles the handle.


Tue, 02/04/2014 - 04:55 | 4399394 The Heart
The Heart's picture

Yo goldfishman, whacha gonna do when the global train stops? For good??

And, how's that world domination thing workin out for ya, anyways?

Arf...arf...arf...back to your master the rottenchildkiller banksters you lapdog.

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