ISM Has Biggest Miss On Record, New Orders Plunge Most Since 1980

Tyler Durden's picture

The downward revision to last month's recent record high appears to have been the warning flag but this is a disaster. ISM Manufacturing dropped by its most since 2008 to levels not seen since May, missed by the most on record, and new orders collapsed at the fastest pace since December 1980. The employment sub-index also tumbled from 55.8 to 52.3. "Poor weather" was blamed by some respondents and still hangovers from the government shutdown but these numbers are simply unprecedented as the data came in at a 6-sigma miss to "economist" expectations.

Surprisingly, even the ISM is sick and tired of the generic excuse:


So, one needs to come up with new and improved generic excuses for biggest miss on record:


6-Sima from smart people's expectations...


And New orders dropped by the most sicne 1980...


The full component breakdown with New Orders highlighted:


The respondents were still hopeful, but scapegoaty, as some were crushed by the lack of balmy 73 degree weather in the deep of winter:

  • "We are seeing slight improvements, year-over-year, month-to-month, across most regions and business segments." (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products)
  • "Poor weather impacted outbound and inbound shipments." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Good finish to 2013, but slow start to 2014, mostly attributed to weather." (Petroleum & Coal Products)
  • "U.S. government aerospace business is very brisk." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Slight improvements in defense business. But still lagging from previous years." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "Cautiously optimistic about increasing volumes but still challenging, and margins remain low." (Chemical Products)
  • "We have experienced many late deliveries during the past week due to the weather shutting down truck lines." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • "We continue to be busy, working six days, 24 hours a day." (Primary Metals)
  • "Delays in government product certification due to the partial government shutdown last year are still negatively impacting delivery and inventory levels." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

Finally, the Hopium is weak with this one.

  • "Restricted optimism heading into Q1." (Machinery)

He must be sent back to the NSA for some reindoctrination.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Ness.'s picture

We just might see the deer again tonight.

Headbanger's picture

Yeah and a big old and really hungry bear is gonna be chewing away on it too!

Again, major support is broken this morning!

GetZeeGold's picture



I so do pine for the malaise days of Jimmy know.....the second worst President ever.

idea_hamster's picture

“New orders dropped by the most since 1980...”

Where’s the Gipper to tell us everything is OK and that we can all borrow our way to prosperity?


Time to invade Grenada again!  

KickIce's picture

You mean back when deficits mattered, interest rates were increased to combat inflation and when money printing caused gold prices to increase?  IOW when basic economic principles were applied.

squib's picture

I have this friend you see, he is always pining for the fjords.

camaro68ss's picture

Who let those numbers hit the press?

some is getting Suicideded for this 

gmrpeabody's picture

Perhaps if we merge fast food into manufacturing, the data might improve.

Oh, wait...

Colonel Klink's picture

Yep they did that years ago.  Some Ivy league braintrust decided that making burgers was manufacturing.

Villageidiot777's picture

Wait, what? Is this really true? What else not-so-traditional manufacturing is included there?

Boston's picture

And what are Treasury's doing? Oh yeah, collapsing in yield. 

On the 10yr, after 2.6% gets taken out, 2.50-2.55% will be almost automatic.

BandGap's picture

Bad moon rising - I think we hit the debt limit soon, too.

gatorengineer's picture

boner surrender, there is not debt limit......


The Republican party is suiciding right before our eyes, and I doubt that they will even exist by the 16 elections, the veil of two teams has fallen......  only differences in the speed of the implementation of the Progressive agenda....

AGuy's picture

"Bad moon rising - I think we hit the debt limit soon, too."

Bad Debt rising! especially in Asia!


Cursive's picture

At some point, BernanQEllen can't print us out of this mess.  We may be at that point.

Dr. Engali's picture

Uhmmmm.. They are printing us into this mess.

Cursive's picture

@Dr. Engali

Agreed that the Fed is the problem.  The Fed has been very successful (moreso than I ever thought possible) at bailing water from a leaking boat; however, the rate of water flow from the leaks is becoming too much for the Fed's bucket.

Winston Churchill's picture

'You've got a hole your bucket,dear Janet,dear Janet".

fonzannoon's picture

Maybe. The setup seems there for a shitbag NFP Friday followed by some ort of monetary or fiscal policy boost. That would be the catalyst for this to stop. I still believe the market just wants moar. It's getting interesting though.

Bearwagon's picture

It's just the weather - or tanks in the street before tomorrow morning. Period! b ;-)

Grande Tetons's picture

Non shitbag NFP...and we shall see. I am not convinced this in the ONE.  Long USD/YEN....again. 

algol_dog's picture

Remain Calm! Federal Food stamp program to be reinstated .... 

Jlasoon's picture

And Wal-Mart applauds. 

Dr. Engali's picture

I blame the shitty "superbowl".

Headbanger's picture

The Super Bowl Theory indicator is coming true already!

Silverhog's picture

Shit is getting pretty deep. Put on your boots Yellen. 

Alpo for Granny's picture

Shit is getting pretty deep. Turn on your printer Yellen.

fonzannoon's picture

Granny I think we are getting to an interesting point. They can turn that printer on and push the market up. But it will only anger Joe Sixpack more to see the 1% benefit. Something else has to be on the way. Either some form of stimulus that we did not see coming, or they are fine with an implosion.

Dr. Engali's picture

I'm beginning to think it's B, but I'll reserve judgment right now. It's still pretty controlled, and they have thrown an awful lot of Bernanke bucks to try and save the system.  It will be interesting to see if they let Yellen take the fall for any collapse. 

fonzannoon's picture

I hear you....but they would let Yellen take the fall? Just my thoughts but the longer this goes on the longer this seems to expose Bernanke. I mean holy shit he is gone a few days and tapered on his way out and the whole thing collapses before Yellen sits down...

I wonder if they are going to play the big card. The one that says the fed was right all along to be doing QE...and this is what happens when they get pressured by outside forces. Our planners know what is best for us, and we were wrong to make them stop.

Dr. Engali's picture

I don't know, it's going to be interesting. This could spin out of control in a quick way.

gatorengineer's picture

China can still pull a short term stick save.....  go massive stimulus, build some more 2,000ft tall buildings and ghost cities, or B massive military buildup....

Two, and they missed the opportunity yesterday, there could easily be an event that is outside of Dear Leaders control that would give them the stick save, by starting a war, in order of liklihood,


North Korea

Iran (Maybe Isreal starts it)

Ukraine (kinda an Arch Duke thingy)



Pheonyte's picture

You caught Rickards' brainwave. He said the next move would be a helicopter drop to the consumer. We may very well see a direct stimulus before long.

Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

Fed doesn't have political cover for that yet.  At this rate of decline they will soon. 

Fed lost control of the bond market last year and now they will lose control of the stock market. 

fonzannoon's picture

There is only one thing left to do and that is run for the true safe havens of TWTR FB and TSLA


Colonel Klink's picture

I've fallen and can't hit CTRL-P!

Sudden Debt's picture

We clearly need new ways to calculate this number...

What would happen if you compaired it to American production 1491?

101 years and counting's picture

the fed and EM are tightening as the next leg lower of the depression hits.  no coincidence the fed does this as bullishness/bearish spread largest in history.  ben killed all shorts and sucked in all peasants.  time for the reaping.

Bearwagon's picture

It's the weather, people, just the weather.

B2u's picture

Blame It On The Rain.

Fake singers...just like this fake economy...


adr's picture

Blame it on the Bens that were fallin, fallin

Blame it on the Feds that were printin all night

But whatever you do, don't put the blame on you

Blame it on the Ben yeah yeah.

SheepDog-One's picture

Economy booming....*BOOM*

Obama_4_Dictator's picture

To your battle station (printing press) Yellin!  Roads, where we are going, we don't need roads!