ISM Has Biggest Miss On Record, New Orders Plunge Most Since 1980

Tyler Durden's picture


The downward revision to last month's recent record high appears to have been the warning flag but this is a disaster. ISM Manufacturing dropped by its most since 2008 to levels not seen since May, missed by the most on record, and new orders collapsed at the fastest pace since December 1980. The employment sub-index also tumbled from 55.8 to 52.3. "Poor weather" was blamed by some respondents and still hangovers from the government shutdown but these numbers are simply unprecedented as the data came in at a 6-sigma miss to "economist" expectations.

Surprisingly, even the ISM is sick and tired of the generic excuse:


So, one needs to come up with new and improved generic excuses for biggest miss on record:


6-Sima from smart people's expectations...


And New orders dropped by the most sicne 1980...


The full component breakdown with New Orders highlighted:


The respondents were still hopeful, but scapegoaty, as some were crushed by the lack of balmy 73 degree weather in the deep of winter:

  • "We are seeing slight improvements, year-over-year, month-to-month, across most regions and business segments." (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products)
  • "Poor weather impacted outbound and inbound shipments." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Good finish to 2013, but slow start to 2014, mostly attributed to weather." (Petroleum & Coal Products)
  • "U.S. government aerospace business is very brisk." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Slight improvements in defense business. But still lagging from previous years." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "Cautiously optimistic about increasing volumes but still challenging, and margins remain low." (Chemical Products)
  • "We have experienced many late deliveries during the past week due to the weather shutting down truck lines." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • "We continue to be busy, working six days, 24 hours a day." (Primary Metals)
  • "Delays in government product certification due to the partial government shutdown last year are still negatively impacting delivery and inventory levels." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

Finally, the Hopium is weak with this one.

  • "Restricted optimism heading into Q1." (Machinery)

He must be sent back to the NSA for some reindoctrination.

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Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:12 | 4395642 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

We just might see the deer again tonight.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:18 | 4395668 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Yeah and a big old and really hungry bear is gonna be chewing away on it too!

Again, major support is broken this morning!

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:37 | 4395746 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



I so do pine for the malaise days of Jimmy know.....the second worst President ever.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:43 | 4395778 idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

“New orders dropped by the most since 1980...”

Where’s the Gipper to tell us everything is OK and that we can all borrow our way to prosperity?


Time to invade Grenada again!  

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 12:22 | 4395907 KickIce
KickIce's picture

You mean back when deficits mattered, interest rates were increased to combat inflation and when money printing caused gold prices to increase?  IOW when basic economic principles were applied.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 12:42 | 4395974 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

"Run, Forest, Run!"

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 13:38 | 4396192 squib
squib's picture

I have this friend you see, he is always pining for the fjords.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:16 | 4395669 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

Who let those numbers hit the press?

some is getting Suicideded for this 

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:15 | 4395670 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Perhaps if we merge fast food into manufacturing, the data might improve.

Oh, wait...

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:33 | 4395740 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Yep they did that years ago.  Some Ivy league braintrust decided that making burgers was manufacturing.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 13:22 | 4396120 Villageidiot777
Villageidiot777's picture

Wait, what? Is this really true? What else not-so-traditional manufacturing is included there?

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 14:05 | 4396268 stant
stant's picture

yep it is.hence the joke dow non industrials

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 21:49 | 4398455 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

Hey... American Express is the premier plastic wafer manufacturer.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:25 | 4395716 Boston
Boston's picture

And what are Treasury's doing? Oh yeah, collapsing in yield. 

On the 10yr, after 2.6% gets taken out, 2.50-2.55% will be almost automatic.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:42 | 4395774 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Bad moon rising - I think we hit the debt limit soon, too.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:56 | 4395818 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

boner surrender, there is not debt limit......


The Republican party is suiciding right before our eyes, and I doubt that they will even exist by the 16 elections, the veil of two teams has fallen......  only differences in the speed of the implementation of the Progressive agenda....

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 13:00 | 4396036 AGuy
AGuy's picture

"Bad moon rising - I think we hit the debt limit soon, too."

Bad Debt rising! especially in Asia!


Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:11 | 4395648 Cursive
Cursive's picture

At some point, BernanQEllen can't print us out of this mess.  We may be at that point.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:13 | 4395659 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Uhmmmm.. They are printing us into this mess.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:21 | 4395694 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Dr. Engali

Agreed that the Fed is the problem.  The Fed has been very successful (moreso than I ever thought possible) at bailing water from a leaking boat; however, the rate of water flow from the leaks is becoming too much for the Fed's bucket.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:28 | 4395722 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

'You've got a hole your bucket,dear Janet,dear Janet".

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:14 | 4395663 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Maybe. The setup seems there for a shitbag NFP Friday followed by some ort of monetary or fiscal policy boost. That would be the catalyst for this to stop. I still believe the market just wants moar. It's getting interesting though.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:18 | 4395681 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

It's just the weather - or tanks in the street before tomorrow morning. Period! b ;-)

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:18 | 4395689 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Non shitbag NFP...and we shall see. I am not convinced this in the ONE.  Long USD/YEN....again. 

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:14 | 4395664 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

They will do it anyway.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:19 | 4395685 algol_dog
algol_dog's picture

Remain Calm! Federal Food stamp program to be reinstated .... 

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 12:39 | 4395960 Jlasoon
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And Wal-Mart applauds. 

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:13 | 4395650 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I blame the shitty "superbowl".

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:17 | 4395673 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

The Super Bowl Theory indicator is coming true already!

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:12 | 4395651 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Shit is getting pretty deep. Put on your boots Yellen. 

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:15 | 4395661 Alpo for Granny
Alpo for Granny's picture

Shit is getting pretty deep. Turn on your printer Yellen.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:17 | 4395682 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Granny I think we are getting to an interesting point. They can turn that printer on and push the market up. But it will only anger Joe Sixpack more to see the 1% benefit. Something else has to be on the way. Either some form of stimulus that we did not see coming, or they are fine with an implosion.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:24 | 4395701 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'm beginning to think it's B, but I'll reserve judgment right now. It's still pretty controlled, and they have thrown an awful lot of Bernanke bucks to try and save the system.  It will be interesting to see if they let Yellen take the fall for any collapse. 

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:25 | 4395714 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I hear you....but they would let Yellen take the fall? Just my thoughts but the longer this goes on the longer this seems to expose Bernanke. I mean holy shit he is gone a few days and tapered on his way out and the whole thing collapses before Yellen sits down...

I wonder if they are going to play the big card. The one that says the fed was right all along to be doing QE...and this is what happens when they get pressured by outside forces. Our planners know what is best for us, and we were wrong to make them stop.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:27 | 4395723 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I don't know, it's going to be interesting. This could spin out of control in a quick way.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 12:00 | 4395827 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

China can still pull a short term stick save.....  go massive stimulus, build some more 2,000ft tall buildings and ghost cities, or B massive military buildup....

Two, and they missed the opportunity yesterday, there could easily be an event that is outside of Dear Leaders control that would give them the stick save, by starting a war, in order of liklihood,


North Korea

Iran (Maybe Isreal starts it)

Ukraine (kinda an Arch Duke thingy)



Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:23 | 4395705 Pheonyte
Pheonyte's picture

You caught Rickards' brainwave. He said the next move would be a helicopter drop to the consumer. We may very well see a direct stimulus before long.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:27 | 4395717 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

Fed doesn't have political cover for that yet.  At this rate of decline they will soon. 

Fed lost control of the bond market last year and now they will lose control of the stock market. 

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:30 | 4395729 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

There is only one thing left to do and that is run for the true safe havens of TWTR FB and TSLA


Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:48 | 4395800 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

already loaded up on those

UA, CMG & BWLD too

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 12:22 | 4395910 jsgibson
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and MyIRA!

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:36 | 4395748 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

I've fallen and can't hit CTRL-P!

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:12 | 4395653 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

We clearly need new ways to calculate this number...

What would happen if you compaired it to American production 1491?

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:12 | 4395654 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

the fed and EM are tightening as the next leg lower of the depression hits.  no coincidence the fed does this as bullishness/bearish spread largest in history.  ben killed all shorts and sucked in all peasants.  time for the reaping.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:14 | 4395655 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

It's the weather, people, just the weather.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:18 | 4395679 B2u
B2u's picture

Blame It On The Rain.

Fake singers...just like this fake economy...


Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:42 | 4395775 adr
adr's picture

Blame it on the Bens that were fallin, fallin

Blame it on the Feds that were printin all night

But whatever you do, don't put the blame on you

Blame it on the Ben yeah yeah.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:13 | 4395657 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Economy booming....*BOOM*

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:15 | 4395666 Obama_4_Dictator
Obama_4_Dictator's picture

To your battle station (printing press) Yellin!  Roads, where we are going, we don't need roads!

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