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These Were The Best And Worst Performing Assets In January

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The first in 2013 - namely the Nikkei, because oddly enough everyone ignores that hyperinflation "success story" that is the Caracas stock market, was last in January. And vice versa: the best performing asset last month was the barbarous relic which every Keynesian "expert" once again left for dead in the last year, roundly ignoring that it has been the best performing asset class since the Lehman collapse.

Some additional commentary from Deutsche Bank:

It’s been a turbulent start to the year as EM developments as well as arguably softer global economic data have seen risk sentiment turn negative. The clear outperformers have been DM fixed income and European peripheral equities, whilst it has been a very tough month for other DM equities as well as most EM assets. The performance of commodities has been somewhat mixed.

 

A difficult 2013 for EM has continued into the start of 2014. Key equity indices have seen notable falls with the MSCI EM index down -6.6%. Bonds have also come under pressure with overall government bond returns of -3.5% led largely by performance of EMEA bonds (-6.3%). The most notable negatives in EM have come in FX. In Figure 1 we show the performance of a number of key EM currencies in January. They have all declined vs. the Dollar with the Argentinean Peso the obvious underperformer falling nearly 19%. There has also been significant weakness in RUB, HUF, TRL and ZAR, which have all fallen by more than 5% against the Dollar.

 

It has also been a tough month for DM equities. Despite a decent start to the month in Europe, where the DJ Stoxx 600 had returned as much as +2.5% to the 22nd Jan, the negative EM developments saw a notable swing in sentiment and the index eventually ended the month down -1.6%. In the US the S&P 500 has only briefly touched its end of year high and has returned -3.5% on the month. Asian indices have probably seen the worst of the performance with the Nikkei and Hang Seng returning -8.4% and -5.5% respectively. The only real bright spot for DM equities has come from the periphery of Europe where returns have still generally been positive with Ireland (+2.5%), Portugal (+2.5%) and Italy (+2.4%) seeing the best of the performance.

 

In contrast to the performance of DM equities, DM fixed income has had a solid start to the year as core government bond yields have generally fallen. Despite the fact that the Fed has started to taper QE, the 10 year Treasury yield has fallen 38bps, which has helped the Treasury index return +1.6% in January. Similarly the 10 year Bund and Gilt yields have fallen 27bps and 32bps respectively with the indices returning +2.2% and +2.1% respectively. Spanish government bonds (+2.8%) have seen the best of the performance. The move in government bonds has also helped corporate credit to produce positive returns despite indices generally widening in spread terms. IG has outperformed HY in the sell-off but credit has held in reasonably well considering the issues elsewhere. In USD credit IG non-financials (+1.9%) have seen the best of the performance while in GBP it has been financials (senior +2.3% and sub +1.9%).

Subordinated financials (+1.7%) have seen the best of the performance in EUR credit after a strong start. Interestingly none of the sub credit components in our performance review have seen negative total returns.

 

Finally commodities, which have had a mixed month. Overall the CRB index rose +1.1% helped by gains in gold (+3.2%) and corn (+2.8%) while other key commodities were generally down on the month including wheat (-8.2%), copper (-5.9%) and sugar (-5.2%). All the returns above are in local currency. We chart the returns in both local currency and Dollar terms in the pdf.

 

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Mon, 02/03/2014 - 09:35 | 4395372 IdeasRbulletproof
IdeasRbulletproof's picture

Bold Gitchez...

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 10:07 | 4395442 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

too many letters for a licience plate     damn

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 12:35 | 4395945 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

You could do "GLD BTHZ" but I wouldn't go around town advertising that.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 19:49 | 4397915 TaperProof
TaperProof's picture

But people who trade will think you like the GLD ETF and not the PHYZ!

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 09:36 | 4395376 gafgroocK
gafgroocK's picture

 

 

Gold Paper and Silver Paper were decoupled.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 09:46 | 4395397 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

If those two can't make it work, I don't know who can.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 14:27 | 4396353 Exponere Mendaces
Exponere Mendaces's picture

Bitcoin [Bitstamp Prices]:

01/01/14 - 751.90

01/31/14 - 813.20

Difference: 61.30

Percentage Change: 8.153%

Beating all asset classes by a factor of 2x isn't bad for one month. Can't wait to compare it to the "MyRA" bullshit instruments when they're available.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 09:54 | 4395411 Element
Element's picture

ah, Spanish Bonds ... what could possibly go wrong?

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 10:05 | 4395440 FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

yo te quero, oh my corazon...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ertt3o1x65c

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 09:53 | 4395414 Sufiy
Sufiy's picture


Clive Maund: Gold Market Update

  Clive Maund provides a very comprehensive technical picture on Gold, Gold Miners and general equity markets.  He was spot on the money with his call on Jan 2nd 2014 -  "Broad US Stock Market Update - No New Paradigm - Get Out Now!!" and we highly recommend to study his work. With ongoing sell off in the equity markets and new scare about the emerging markets rising Gold physical demand is the very important indicator to follow now. China has become the top Gold consumer in 2013 and now demand for Gold is picking up all over the world including the U.S.

 

http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/clive-maund-gold-market-update-tnrv-...

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 09:57 | 4395422 ZeroRights
ZeroRights's picture

This is a bogus list- I don't see Super Bowl tickets and parking pass on it!

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 10:45 | 4395561 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

Odd, I should feel good, but I have that crushed thing hanging in my persona.  It'll take two years of best performing asset for the month for gold to get back to where it was two years ago.  A lost four years, mission accomplished FED.  Then there's silver.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:36 | 4395750 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

Distaste in sale prices?

OHhh life must be SO hard.

 

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:45 | 4395781 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

You nit witt gold bugs are the only people I know who cheer when your asset prices go down.  Worst thing about the gold/silver markets are the brain dead jackasses that one is surrounded with.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 10:51 | 4395582 Panem et Circus
Panem et Circus's picture

Sorry, you missed the actual best performing asset... EBT

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 11:19 | 4395684 XXL66
XXL66's picture

my short FDAX is doing better then my physical gold tho !

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 14:16 | 4396306 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

And what's with the disconnect between gold and silver? Gold going up and silver declining? WTF? I'd of figured they'd have skipped down the primrose path together...

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