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The US And China Are Right To Distrust Each Other
Submitted by Zachary Zeck via The Diplomat,
“There is a low level of strategic trust between the United States and China, which could make bilateral relations more turbulent,” warned a recent report jointly issued by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Beijing-based China Strategic Culture Promotion Association (CSCPA).
It was hardly the first such report to assess that the U.S. and China fundamentally distrust one another. Two years ago, Wang Jisi and Kenneth G. Lieberthal wrote a report for the Brookings Institution that warned, “Although both Beijing and Washington consider the U.S.-China relationship to be the most important in the world, distrust of each other’s long term intentions (‘strategic distrust’) has grown to a dangerous degree.” Two years before that, in 2008, Phillip Saunders spoke of the need to enhance trust between the U.S. and China; an argument picked up recently by Chinese academics and the foreign minister.
Although it would be preferable if the two countries trusted one another, this is an unrealistic goal. The U.S. and China are right to distrust one another and this won’t change anytime soon. Therefore, the goal should be to find ways to manage the bilateral relationship without strategic trust.
In general, trust is a rare commodity in the world of international politics, and for good reason.
To begin with, it is impossible for states to know each other’s intentions. Even if a state is confident it knows another country’s current leadership’s intentions—which is unlikely in and of itself—it certainly cannot know what the country’s future leaders’ intentions will be.
Secondly, international politics is hyper-competitive. Although there are some issues like climate change that might be somewhat conducive to cooperation, the main realms of world politics—economics, politics, and military affairs—are based on relative power. Thus, each state has a strong incentive to gain an advantage over other ones. Even issues like climate change are ultimately about relative gains since there are strong economic advantages to be gained by having other states shoulder a larger share of the burden for addressing climate change. Hence why China and many developing countries argue that the U.S. and the West should bear a disproportionate share of the burden on climate issues, and why Washington and its allies refuse to oblige these demands.
Thirdly, the anarchic nature of the international system also incentivizes distrust. In most industries in the United States, individuals and countries can place a modicum of trust in one another to honor contracts because ultimately they know they can turn to the U.S. legal system to force compliance (or receive restitution). But in illegitimate industries in the U.S.—such as the illegal narcotics trade—the protection of the legal system is absent. Consequently, there tends to be a lot more distrust in the narcotics industry and other illegal enterprises. International politics is far more like the illegal drug trade in the United States than legitimate industries, at least in this respect.
Finally, international politics is a high-stakes game where getting burned has severe consequences. The U.S. promises freedom of navigation in the high seas, including to China which is increasingly economically dependent on its continuation. Should China decide to take the U.S. at its word on the matter and forgo modernizing its military, it would be helpless a decade down the road if a U.S. president decided to erect a blockade around China over a political dispute or simply to cripple its economy. And this blockade would have profound negative consequences for the Chinese people and ultimately for the Chinese Communist Party’s rule. It’s no surprise that CCP leaders aren’t appear anxious to make this gamble now that they have an economy capable of supporting a modern navy and air force.
Thus, at most states can trust other states to pursue their own interests (even this is not advisable since it assumes both sides are able to correctly identify that state’s interests). And this is preciously why the U.S. and China do not trust each other and aren’t likely to start anytime soon– namely because they largely have opposing interests in the Western Pacific. America’s interest is in preserving the current status-quo, which is a regional order built around the United States. China’s interest is in rebuilding the regional status-quo that existed before the arrival of the Europeans. That is, Beijing seeks a Sino-centric order.
True, neither side is eager for a war in pursuit of this aim. But both sides must first admit that they have opposing visions for the region’s future, before they can leverage their mutual aversion to war in reaching a negotiated peace.
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Don't call me nigger, slanty
Don't call me slanty, nigger
Slope and Change
Nobody remembers the young Sly Stone who was on his game and attacking racism?http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vn27lIzAHV4&list=ALBTKoXRg38BA65qrm69-cVW...
When you think wit ur cock and de come in sizes from a penny to a dollar, you are naturally going to distrust one another silly.
We're giving away cheap gold......what are those guys bitching about?
US manufacturers destroy jobs in their own country and then create jobs in China. Then Chinese wages go up and other countries start becoming relatively cheaper. If you're willing to destroy your own country, what's going to make you be loyal to a foreign country? I'd say the Chinese "trust" the US real well. How could they be blind enough not to?
OTOH, if the US hasn't learnt from Schwinn / Giant, then they truly are morons.
http://listverse.com/2010/03/23/10-pretty-stupid-business-moves/
(Apologies to those who have seen me post this link before. Everyone else look at number 8 on the list.)
China sucks. But I hope they become the next global empire. That way they can go broke supporting a bloated military. And I can get my teeth fixed with socialized medicine. Peace.
In the trying to get away from worthless socialized medicine Ukraine, I have seen beautiful young women with open active cavities of rotting front teeth that otherwise would be a high '10' in beauty. Otherwise a wide beautiful smile with tooth decay is memorably sad. Do not wish for such dental care and poverty.
also, the US is batshit crazy so who the hell knows what our government is going to do
Catastrophe is two psychopathic entities without a common goal.
Catastrophe is two psychopathic entities with a common goal.
Such is the behavior of government.
Asia is 15,000 years old, the USA just a little over 200 years old.
China has a solid +4,000 year old history, a benevolent government, and people who do not even that have to stop and think about killing someone who harms a child in their village or town.
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The USA is a nation of welfare FSA morons watching TV fat and OBESE,
The CHINESE labor ( albeit less than 15% of CHINA GDP is for USA export ), to create toys to amuse the white-parasite, who gets in MORE DEBT everyday.
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The CHINESE leaders are concerned with CONTROL out 500+ years, USA leaders just want to make retirement and get back to Israel, and hang on beaches near Tel-Aviv.
A benevolent government? Are you fucking kidding me? The Chinese government is as corrupt as any other government, and far more corrupt than the U.S. considering they don't even pretend to listen to the populace.
MF-GLOBAL anybody?
In the USA they rob you, and nobody goes to prison, and like MADOFF only the lawyers get PAID.
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In CHINA nobody get's HURT cuz its about CONFUSICIST, its not about HITLER, or GORDON GECKO.
The recent BANK fuck where GoldmanSach's lied and sold lots of bad debt, its all been COVERED by the US-FED.
My POINT, and you wouldn't understand this, but CHINA doesn't let its people get hurt, in the USA the GOVERNMENT is ran by the criminals, and they never go to jail, and they rob anyone anytime as they wish.
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Why pray tell did Jim Rogers leave the USA? What made Celente mad as hell? In all cases they were robbed and the USA GUBMINT said "FUCK OFF LITTTLE MAN"... Where is their money now? IN ASIA where its safe from assholes.
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You go ahead and DEFEND the USA, but NOTE that the USA is a nation of criminals, a KLEPTOCRACY, a gubmint of common criminals.
So true. That is why the Communist leaders put nets up around buildings to catch all their sweat shop workers trying to commit suicide.
BTW, I hate to break your Leftist bubble, but the leadership of China is looting the country as fast as they can. That is why there is such an incredible amount of money ($650 Billion) being funneled out of China to foreign countries for safe keeping.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101225781
You get your news from the AIPAC news-service aka CNBC, enough said.
I'm to the right of Atilla-The-Hun, left my fucking ass.
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Look over there, living in Nazi Palestine USA ain't so bad, it's worse over there in Mongolia,... so say's AIPAC.
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Funneling out wealth? Fuck since 1980's ALL private pensions in the USA and all that LOOT was used to build Chinese factory's, ... follow the money bitch.
You get your news from the AIPAC
Don't worry......be happy!
I've got issues with both sides of this particular fence, but I'm pretty sure on the issue of money funneled out of the country that the USA is #1. If you count up all the assets in difficult-to-trace swiss, cayman, bvi, accounts... the USA will dominate the list the same way it dominates global military spending lists. Anyways, rich people everywhere want to get some assets out of their home country; it's a natural diversification of assets in case the SHTF in their home country, so the fact that a big economy has rich citizens moving some money abroad is pretty normal.
What you should count is the PROPORTION of wealth that rich citizens leave in their home country. I am familiar with the investments of enough wealthy Americans, Europeans, and Chinese that I know this generalization is true: uber-rich Chinese bring a small fraction of their wealth out of China (billionaires may move a few 10s of millions abroad in the form of a couple vacation homes and spending money), whereas uber-rich Americans and Europeans bring the vast majority of their wealth out of their home countries (i.e. set up shell corporations in tax havens and find legal mechanisms to move all assets but spending money out of the home country). It's pretty clear that westerners funnel their money away from home in much greater speed and magnitude than Chinese do.
Even if that were true, it isn't the point. This poster is arguing that the Communist Chinese are looking out for their citizens better than the US. If so, they wouldn't be looting their system and instead be using the money to help the rural farmers that are living in dirt huts on the edge of starvation.
I notice that the anti West Leftists always cite the industrial hubs of China when they spin how great that corrupt country runs, but always leave out the majority of the country that is forced to operate under slave conditions. I also don't give a shit what people like Jim Rogers has to say on the topic. Let's remember where he got his money. George Soros anyone?
Asia is 15,000 years old, the USA just a little over 200 years old.
Asia is not a country.
Yes!
it is not your government, you do not have to know..
The message here is the "anarchic nature of the international system."
Of course the solution is a new system. Perhaps we could call it....oh, say...the New World Order. We could create a global government to which all current national governments and their citizens (increasingly 'subjects') would submit. And maybe we could create a global police force to patrol the world and keep all of the little dependents safe from each other.
Funny how that works, take away sovereignty... trust becomes "unnecessary"...
Not that any #1 or #2 wouldn't have to be dumb as hell to trust the competition, regardless of the game.
RE the ""anarchic nature of the international system""
it used to be less anarchic. or let's say it used to have more orderly processes. Declarations of War, for example, where one of those formal processes to which, among others, all sovereign nations used to follow. the list is long, and contains other concepts like "casus belli" and justified war
a lot of war propaganda against Japan during WW2 was centered on the fact that Japan delivered a Declaration of War after Pearl Harbour's attack
I have a very simple and humble opinion on all this Sino-American "conflict". It helps to give arguments for more guns. On both sides. good for biz, some say
I agree with you, but after some short thought I also have to blame the Europeans for the "disorder". After the Great War TPTB were all expressing their desire to never go to war with one another again... that didn't quite work out, but after the failure of the League of Nations, we the serfs got shafted with the UN, a gift that keeps on giving, and which has made formal declarations of war "unfashionable". Moreover while advanced technology and increased interaction has facilitated soft war (how many YEARS of Cold War data intercepts can now be carried by a single spy passing through customs with a microSD card in their cell phone), the financial cost (and potential existential cost) of overt warfare has escalated as the increasing economic interdependence between nations also serves as a disincentive to overt war.
Perhaps big business would be a better target for my scorn, but then again, even if the Europeans don't seek a United States of Europe, they certainly appear to be seeking a United Nations of Europe, then again since I'm such a sucker false paradigms I might actually buy into the John Bolton claptrap about about desiring to remove a bunch of floors from the UN headquarters, instead of wondering how many of those "unnecessary" floors actually facilitated the US waging a quasi-overt war under false pretenses and UN auspices, but perhaps it was some other drones (or floors) that Mr. Bolton was actually complaining about...
The solution is to exclude all the shitheads from civilization. The real meaning of 'outlaw'.
A society that accepts criminal behavior is going to end up being a criminal society.
Who gets to decide who is the shithead? That's always the rub, deciding who the decider is. One culture's shithead might be another culture's Joe-6pk.
which civilization? imho there is not only one. this is even more pronounced when you go into societies
China doesn't have to trust the US. All they have to do is slip Obama a buck and tell him what to do.
The president of Washington D.C. has let the world know that the United States of America is for sale and that it no longer is governed by the rule of law or the Constitution.
TRUST is indeed a back to basics issue on so many levels in this wonderful unfolding drama.
That is why I advocate data rights and transparency.
Secrecy has it's place as well, but it needs to be oversighted properly.
We need BALANCE, I also dare say WISDOM.
Liars and Outliers: Enabling the Trust that Society Needs to Thrive
http://www.amazon.com/Liars-Outliers-Enabling-Society-Thrive/dp/1118143302
https://www.schneier.com/
Trust - Balance - Wisdom
Shit all CHINA has to do is send OBAMA gay porn and they got his balls tight.
Promise that he can retire in Macau and live at one of the Boy's-Town 'Disneyland Villages", where its sex with young males 24/7, I think Obama will take that over a retirement in Tel-Aviv. Remember Obama's granny is Jewish, and his mother which makes him Jewish, and yes Obama has that coveted dual-passport, as does every other Politician in the USA.
Calling Akak! Calling Akak!
Excellent! As the US-China competition heats up, we're increasingly fed all kinds of ignorance and irrational, emotional crap. We can't have enough of such cool-headed analysis.
Also, US foreign policy has been persistently drifting away from the pragmatistic tradition since the end of cold war, culminating in the neo-con -- but liberals are at least equally guilty in the increasingly ideological foreign policy today. We need to go back to pragmatic foreign policy.
Free speech is a good thing,
dumbing down is not,
editing and gatekeeping is the most terrifying of all,
and regardless of the author's good intentions,
where does this article fit, I wonder...
It fits in this strange new editorial stance at ZH.
Anywhere else, this would be a puff piece. Here, it feels like.....
I agree. I have always regarded the Diplomat as the public voice for TPTB. That said, it is good to know what they are up to.
Exactly, I started reading the wall-st urinal for this reason in college, I wanted to know what the enemy was thinking an doing. Now I don't read the WSJ anymore, ...
But yes,... read the enemy,
One of my favorite is www.DEBKA.com the offical MOSSAD website for zionist wannabe's, if you know how to read between the lines you can learn much from the bastards.
Please satoshi911, please go ahead and post as many Debka articles as you wish, we love that stuff, it's choice reading material for the enlightened mind. We look forward to many posts to come from you, keeping us updated on important world affairs.
I think we would all benefit greatly from that.
All the best.
ok T ... we await ... with considerable intrigue.
China to me is the Germany of the 21st Century.
Hopefully their history turns out differently!
Germany even today is still a great power in its own right...but I think China really wants to "stretch its wings" here.
Lest it be forgotten the USA was a big financial backer of Germany for most of its "wing stretching" history.
Obviously we are a big financial backer of China as well.
"Only Nixon could go to China" as they say...and that has led to a lot of "relationships" being built.
I think what makes this relationship interesting is that you really don't know how it will turn out. We have built up a respectable dialogue however going back many decades now.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_Chinese
I think this article incorrectly defines "han chinese." my understanding is that it means "country bumpkin"...very uncivilized..."of peasant stock."
Here's classic "Han" in my book: http://www.biography.com/people/mao-tse-tung-9398142
rosie cheeks, round face..."northerner." a "shit shoveller" as the Shanghai-guo would call them.
To me that's a powerful connection of "North Americans" to China.
This guy is very "han" to me as well: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping
Another content free piece of clickbait from the "Diplomat", whatever that is, here at the new ZH.
ABC-MEDIA clearly states the purpose of ZH is deliver AD VIEWERS.
ABC-MEDIA delivers a unique demographic segment of the world internet view population. That coveted 15-45 year old who lives at home, but has access to his parents credit cards.
The kind of intelligent and thoughtful human beings that buy bitcoin mining hardware, and penny gold mining stocks, and Russian GF's online.
The new ZH may be above your reading/writing level, but challenge yourself to rise up to the new standards of 'higher education'.
U.S. intelligence agencies last week urged the Obama administration to check its new healthcare network for malicious software after learning that developers linked to the Belarus government helped produce the website, raising fresh concerns that private data posted by millions of Americans will be compromised.
http://freebeacon.com/the-belarusian-connection/
China had peasant uprisings longer than the US republic has been around.
The most recent "communist" peasant uprising is no different.
All the true believers in the CPS and PLA consider the US politic to be transitory.
The proof of this conjecture (say what?) is that China would never in a million years extend it's own scientific and industrial prowess to an alien culture in the spirit of "engagement."
The US shipped off its middle class economy and the hard won superiority/luck of surviving WW2 un-phased to China. How is that working out now and in the future?
China's political culture is rife with feudalism. While maybe parochial in theory, China's rivers cut that country up politically and culturally. This is a nation that discovered America before Columbus and said; "So what?"
China is already preparing for the dollar to collapse in purchasing power, the US to default on its debt to China and no material way to ever hold the ground in Asia verses China. The day the US defaults is the same day all those Chinese princlings trained at GS and JPM get rounded-up and shot. No fucks will be given in the continued fascist consolidation of China.
The grand gamble from the team CFR is to instill inflation across China and divide it back into the wudai shiguo period. Good luck with that you crack smoking cowpunchers.
Hard to put the genie back in the bottle when all your TLAM circuit boards are printed in Shenzhen.
A global reserve currency is backed by gold and machines, not IOUs and imported rubber dog shit.
CFR/IMF is embraced in CHINA, the CHINESE are playing CHESS, and the white hairlips are playing checkers.
Just like in RUSSIA.
The RUSSIA/CHINA is going along with the IMF New World Order, they get the same power to print to INFINITE as the USA.
My guess is that the ultimate plan is that when the NWO goes online that CHINA/RUSSIA co-opt the IMF-CFR folks with smarter people, that the USA falls so fucking low as penal-colony, that they lose their voting rights on the IMF.
Here's the DEAL yes "ROCKEFELLER", and ford,heart, bush created the IMF-CFR klusterfuck, but the CHINESE/RUSSIAN's/EUROPEANS ain't stupid.
The USA has bankrupted itself in real, they have no gold, and a nation of METH-HEADS, ...
Can you FEEL the LOVE, People? Bank an' Satoshi GETTIN' IT ON, DADDY. Another Zero-Hedge Marriage Made in Heaven...
I agree with what he said, ... its not in my mold to circle-jerk, .e.g. to back up an assertion that I agree with.
That the USA exported all of its technology, and its expertise.
But those who study TRIFFEN-PARADOX (wiki)
Know that is a by-product of HEGEMONY, its a cruel paradox that those who wish to RULE the world by FIAT, must export their jobs, kill their citizens and MURDER the world, and thus eventually they implode into POVERTY.
The CHINESE are more like the hare&bunny story, while the USA prints INFINITE FIAT like a horny-bunny, the chinese tortoise slowly builds into the most sophisticated nation on earth with real jobs, and real talent,
Guess what the CHINESE have said a BIG FUCK NO to being REserve-CUreency, cuz unlike hair-lips in the west, the CHINESE aren't stupid, they see the USA and understand the TRIFFEN-DILEMMA
The USA aka clintons, obama, and AIPAC don't give a fuck, they just want to fuck little boys/girls in this generation in tel-aviv, but the CHINESE are in the long game.
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I don't know where me and the other person differ, I suspect that he is more PRO-USA,... or less not certain,...
Nobody let us VOTE to be reserve-currency, and certainly the 100 million dead didnt' get to vote,... but then tocqueville predicted this is how the USA would end
Sorry, I don't get upset about CFR, I used to be a member long ago, and thus only too the john-birch society are they a paper-tiger, ... that is so 1960's, GOLDWATER...
Today is quite simple, ...but every man is at his place in life,..
I have said many times here on ZH, that we all are blind and stand by the elephant, to some its a tree, to other its a dick, or maybe the man with the ear thinks it a fan,...
All are right all are wrong, .. it take about 50 years of studying this shit to see the ELEPHANT, IMHO
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To say that CFR rules the world is to say KRUGMAN rules the world, and you can look in KRUGMAN's eyes and see he is a pussy who fears his own reflection, these people don't rule shit.
Every AIPAC whore in the USA has tried to INFLATE the YUAN and failed.
CHINA/RUSSIA are much smarter than ISRAEL.
Israel was allowed to destroy the USA, ... but don't think for a moment that AIPAC(MOSSAD) will do the same to CHINAl
Me thinks that is why GS/ZH bashes CHINA so much here, is that this is their wish,... but ..
Let me just say that the USA are MORONS, a nation as MAO said that would pay for the rope that they would be hung by,
The USA is dead, but CHINA/RUSSIA are just beginning,
RUSSIA/CHINA has their reset (+10 million assholes terminated), now the USA needs to have 100 millions assholes terminated, and its going to happen and IMHO HILLARY-2016 is when the rivers of america turn red.
"... The grand gamble from the team CFR is to instill inflation across China and divide it back into the wudai shiguo period. Good luck with that you crack smoking cowpunchers..."
For those ZHers who aren't familiar with the ancient term, the Wudai Shiguo means the Five Dynasties (907-960) and Ten Kingdoms (902-979), period of political turmoil in ancient China.
The keywords here or the core plans are to create TURMOIL in today's China... hints: Jasmine Revolution (Jon Huntsman got caught red-handed then) and other countlesss initiatives by the Human Rights Watch (HRW) and other similar frontline NGOs to spark discontentment and protests to eventually destabilize the nation... remember the blind dissident, the self-taught lawyer who burdened Hillary Clinton during her visit?Where's Ananonymous little brother satoshi? Paging Satoshi.
Please don't encourage him. Him responding to every single post, sometimes twice, means a lot of extra scrolling for me. There are only so many times I'm going to read about sex with pit bulls and the pit bull street market.
I only do this when I read about camel fucking on ZH, ... who throws the first turd? Not eye, that's for damn sure,
For every odd fuck-head on earth, there are ten in the USA 100x more fucking odd.
You guys love to bash other cultures, but the USA has the sickest fucking cultures on EARTH.
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I would like to talk about interesting subjects.
I was just chatting in the last engagement with MEWN about unlimited FIAT and NSA/CIA, and how it didn't cause inflation, as they were killing people quicker than they could spend money, thus the paradox of unlimited fiat not causing INFLATION has been solved.
You have the USA spending TRILLIONS of FIAT in the last 10 years on COP SHIT (TOYS), FEMA-CAMPS, ... but nada inflation as expected.
In the past on guns and butter arguments it was real money spent on gun's and kids didn't get butter, now everybody gets all.
But I do think the COPS(MIC,PIC) get the best of the current deal in the unlimited FIAT to HELL.
Here's the deal, if they created unlimited FIAT(INFINITY) and its all spent on killing and prisons, how does that effect INFLATION? DEMAND is always reduced, it doesn't matter how much you flood money, if there is no demand.
DEATH is LIFE
I'm here, had to make a fresh batch of coffee :), and my laptop battery died, funny in the heat of keyboard battle...
'shit happens'
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What do you want to know? Ask many any question on any subject. :)
Who is your daddy and what does he do ?
My father is Greg Marmalarde, but you wouldn't know him. He refuses to tell the family what he does, we have always assumed that he is 'CIA'.
Do you have another question?
[Dean Wormer's plotting to get rid of Delta House]
Greg Marmalard: But Delta's already on probation.
Dean Vernon Wormer: They are? Well, as of this moment, they're on DOUBLE SECRET PROBATION!
Satoshi- The trade relationship between the U.S. and China remains very important. You rightly point out our leadership sold out cheap but your repeated commentary reminds me of the propoganda of Hanoi Jane. Allow me to provide a bit dryer analysis:
Both the U.S. and the Chinese leadership are the primary winners of the relationship of "Ping-Pong" strategy of President Nixon and Henry Kissinger with the American people receiving shorter term benefits in cheap goods but loss of jobs/manufacturing base. If you want to get a read of how our inside political leadership thinks, google "Hank Paulson says trade with China must rebalance". There are a lot of articles on the subject since 2008. Trade policy sentiment (and now some recent actions) has began shifting toward protectionism. Same as China.
I wrote an article called "China and the U.S. Should Stop Finger Pointing and Get to Work" if you want a dry economic analysis without all the political rhetoric, mainly issued for citizen consumption and parroted by you daily (but yours is hate filled and far more delusional). Here it is:
http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=1059
You seem to have much faith in the Russo-Sino alliance. The only people the Chinese leadership despise more than the Japanese are the Russians. You might want to brush up on history of the 20th century and recent sentiment of Russians about immigration in the Russian east mineral rich resource regions. You might say that alliance is more like a truce than an alliance. Perhaps you missed the recent EMP cooperative drills, I wont do all your homework for you but as you seem fond of quoting the comedian George Carlin "Its a club and you ain't in it".
You can also Google "China seeks more voting rights at the IMF" as a contrarian position that the Chinese do not want the Yuan to become the world's reserve currency. I strongly believe this was the intent of the Western leadership as well but trade must rebalance first. Then 30 years from now all the people of the globe can call China the big, mean bully while those at the top endlessly chortle amoungst themselves that people would rather use their computers for entertainment rather than educating themselves about how thw world really operates.
The BRIC's (to their credit) were the first to begin investigating peer-to-peer lending around 2008. I know this because I was invited to help do R&D through surrogates in South America. I declined but not because of anti eastern sentiment. Bitcoin and the name 'Satoshi'. Where have I heard that before (sarc off). I commend the BRIC's because this was a good, needed evolution toward making banking more utilitarian as it should be. U.S bankers are now belatedly investing.
What is your agenda? Is it to continue embarrasing yourself and China along with it? Because really, that is what you seem to be doing on a daily basis. A host of nations have the military tech to launch an EMP attack and temporarily cripple an economy. As for China, several MOAB's hitting Chinese dams and say goodbye to its economy. No need for nukes. It only seems in your delusional, hate-filled and adolescent mind that it is in anybodies real interest to see hundreds of millions of people dead.
China copied our model and now catches the same Liassez Faire flu we experienced (or I should day re-experienced) and will face some sharp corrections. I hope the Chinese do well in making the adjustments. As global leadership over used monetary tools substituting them for fiscal tools, hence a global imbalance. Call it lack of vision, declining ethics and laziness but to be fair human nature is to take the path of least reaistance and only act with urgency when absolutley necessary. I too must admit I am often that way in general, but are more urgent because I am not in the club, I have had to work harder since 2008. Now they have to and belatedly are as well.
China copied our model and now catches the same Liassez Faire flu we experienced (or I should day re-experienced) and will face some sharp corrections.
Spot on. China has replicated all the successes and mistakes of the usa over the past 200 years in 20 years. Both countries should come to their demise roughly about the same time, then.
Soon.
UTTER COMPLETE BULLSHIT.
THE IMF has CHINA onboard 100%
The FED just gave CHINA 100's of billions to cover its bank problems, ... everybody is happy.
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Chinese don't want to fucking war.
90% of Chinese Citizens LOVE USA, ... WHY? Cuz WE dropped the A-BOMB twice on JAPAN, and everybody is CHINA is taught as children, that had not the USA dropped the BOMB, then the JAP's would have fucked every last infant in CHINA to death.
Everybody knows that JAP's are baby-fuckers, ... its what Rumsfeld would call a known-known.
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I could go on if anybody here wishes,... let's just ask the MORE important RHETORICAL question, why does GS want us to FOCUS everyday on CHINA?
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I say focus on the HOT, ... UKRAINE, THAILAND, ARGENTINA, USA; all are or will lose their DEMOCRACY's.
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What does TRUST mean? The US Governments Hates its citizens, 80% of the USA doesn't trust US Congress or OBAMA, and you people waste your time talking about CHINA trust?
Since the 1980's CORP-USA has invested BILLION's of real money in CHINA, and that is fucking TRUST.
Name one country that DOES trust the USA. Canada doesn't count; they still report to the Queen.
Bin Laden trusted the USA, and look what happened to him.
Noriega trusted the USA.
Somosa trusted the USA.
Saddam Hussien trusted the USA.
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Yep, but your trust in the USA, they'll fuck you, and eat your children every fucking time.
Virtually every man/woman in the USA prison system, at some point in time "TRUSTED" their US Government.
I'm from the IRS/FBI 'trust me', let's have a talk :)
Australia
So who will emerge as the new super power after usa collapses?
China: polluted, undergoing desertification, huge muslim population waiting to secede, not enough food, few friends.
Russia: lots of gold and oil, cohesive culture, but surrounded by muslims who vow to destroy it and corruption and mafia stranglehold.
India: yeah, right. Surrounded by muslims and the chinese, undergoing desertification, corruption makes Russia look clean.
Canada? Brazil? Australia? . Perhaps a middle east- european - asian suni caliphate will eventually emerge as the dominant military power, but at least 20 years away.
Running out of ideas here
I just dont see anybody replacing usa as a global dominant power. it will be a regional free for all. Russia probably has the best chance of any one country, but its far from certain. At least Putin is making some noise about morality, vision, nation state.
Then again, maybe no dominant power is the setup for a new world order?
If anybody has any idea who could replace usa as dominant world power I woudl like to hear from you. I dont see it happening, myself. I can see a supra state emerging and nations becoming states within it. But whatever happens it iwll take decades for the dust to settle and the transition will be a time of great uncertainty.
Got to think how your country will fare without a usa as friend or foe and plan accordingly.
"So who will emerge as the new super power after usa collapses?"
Haha, I like those clear cut questions, yet I'd be a fool to actually pick one of the options. Isn't that the meaning of N.W.O? The order will be changed. The very idea that nations / countries are operative in the way they once were to me seems ludicrcous. Just that there will be a brief period, maybe another hundred years of domination by this country of that. Who fucking cares!
I guess that we have some people still interpreting the idea of a new world order as a reshuffled league of nations. Personally, I think the operative word is the word 'new'. In my view, we're not playing games of national interest any more. Call me conspiritorial, but I do think a certain period in history already decided this. Why? Well, what can you say but look around, use logic to actually decide for yourself. What is logical about the world today?
I don't mean to sound aloof in responce to your question. I've read a few things you have commented on here, and it's pretty accurate in my opinion. Which is more than I contribute. Just being truthful in my response, that I see some of the comments above as missing the point entirely, despite that people have very knowledgable responses. IMV, the comments which are hitting the mark, are questioning the intent of the author, and these kind of articles. What do people hope to achieve by making an article examine international relations these days? I just can't believe it's real.
Maybe you're asking more of who will be a beneficiary of the changes in the future which are coming to pass, which is a fairer question.
thanks for your reply. I am not sure I follow everything but you raise some good points, especially about the reshuffling of nations, which is my assumption. What you say may be true but it does not erase the variable of human nature. The people who run governments will not stop striving for more, they will drive their countries to competition for dominance. The greater overarching changes you write about may be true but it seems a little far away. a lot of green in between as they say in billiards. Like the historical times of the LIttle Big Horn the amerianc indians were doomed in the bigger picture, and they knew it, but that did not stop them from wiping out the settlers and Custer's army who assumed the big picture had already arrived because it was inevitible. The point of my question about who will emerge to replace the usa is intended to find out where the indians are. The competition and drive for dominance will create risks iin beneifts depending on what country and region you are in, the where the indians are hiding if you are aettler or and indian will create very different risks and opportunities.
Laosuwan - We seem to think alike regarding human nature and we posted similar commentary at the same time.
I liked your anology about the American Indians. The answer is that the Indians are the middle class on a global basis. MAD makes national competition through military conquest suicide so national leaders have been collaborating more and conquest has been on the 'little guy' internationally. Now that the Indians are broke and pissed off, a big polive state has been erected to stem political change It will happen in one form or another. I dont see any one nation being the Indians as Satoshi appears to. Competition is emerging once again between some governments because deficit spending has its limits, citizens are broke and innovattion/pro revenue policies are slowly being enacted.
I would love to see more global competitions in innovation which would benefit all and the Information Age is the perfect time to accelerate this idea, it certainly isnt new look at the Olympics. Something like "Operation Eternity Project" where nations compete to increase longevity toward eventual immortality would inspire all people, increase competition bringing healthcare costs down (West and East have demographic imbalance especially China and the USA). You could do aomething similar with energy. So I guess how we all fair during this transition cycle may depend on how we collectively channel our competitive part of our human nature.
Clearly you have a better grasp of history than I, and I mean that sincerely, historical awareness obviously helps to see things from an objective standpoint. I guess I was only giving a personal response, and trying to explain my convictions on international relations.
I feel that there is much more coordination behind the scenes, and this is making geographic boundaries less relevant, they will become even less so in the future. Yet this is just conjecture. As to your illustration and point, indeed, there is much green in between. And if I was feeling less agaitated, I would probably edit myself, I only intended to open it to wider discussion. Obviously considering ourselves, our families, and any living person over the next century, it's all going to be very important.
I've lived in Europe and more recently Asia, and that's where I take my first-hand experiences, which form my opinion. Fundamentally, in my opinion, when I hear people talk about the idea that certain cultures have a much greater understanding of game-theory than others, owing to their uninterupted historical lineage, I feel the point is somewhat moot. (Seems there is much confusion about nations and regions). IMO, those who at the helm of global restructuring will erode nation states.
Interesting how the international concensus is changing, Russia seems to show more concern for morality, though not sure how that would be seen within Russia. Just read this morning about Russia considering a ban on GMO. Seems I would prefer to life in a country that exercises caution in such matters.
Thanks for trying to understand my points. Glad that you didn't take anything the wrong way
No country will replace the USA as a global hegemon, nor should anyone (at least any noon-Westerner) wish for such a case. It will be the end of global hegemons and global idealogies. The world will be a much better place for it. Westerner may not know how to operate in the absence of a global hegemon telling them what to do and may resort to internal strife and destruction, but the rest of the world itself can heave a big sigh of relief at the ending of this 500 years of culture of murder and plunder and get on with addressing the problems that concern them most.
I dont think western countries have a monopoly on murder and plunder. The mongols, the arab islamists, the japanese come to mind.
But I hope you are right.
True, Westerners are not the only murderers and plunderers. However, when the others settled down to rule over a conquered territory, the murder and plunder ceased. That is the reason the Mongol Genghis Khan who conquered and ruled China is celebrated as a Chinese hero today. It is to the credit of Western nations that they ruled over territories with the exclusive aim of plundering them for the benefit of the imperial core.
When the Roman empire collapsed, it wasn't replaced by another hegemon. Same will be the case when the USA collapses.
Laosuwan - Good commentary and question. My answer is this: Love doesnt make the world go round money does. In that regard the club consensus is that all currencies should float freely, meaning no one national currency peg but an international one. China will face a harsher correction to let it currency float freely as its economic policy has been mercantilism and I do not say this as an insult it seems it has been attempting this change but while it is in its long term interest, short term it isnt.
It is inevitable I think that there will be an internarional currency but for decades you'll still see national currencies. These will compete for a good long while. Floating currency is may be the way to go in theory but our human nature of self-interest gets in the way. It reminds me of libertarianism, sounds great in ideoligical principle but much harder to achieve or maintain in real terms based on human nature.
As another commentator put out here, it would be nice to not spend $2 T a year on defense/intelligence. Because while the reserve currency peg has its advantages especially early on it requires the fesponsibility of protecting global trade. It corrupts the leadership where you get to the point of powerful insider politicians like Dick Cheney claiming "deficits dont matter", relying almost soley on monetary tools for governance. I am being kind here because the corruption has led to outright looting here in the West. Ao trust has fallen globally toward the USA but as mentioned other nations have similar problems of debt and other direct forms of corruption such as mafia's.
The transition toward better systems and government is well underway and the status quo will resist it but resisting change kicking and screami g is like pissing into an evolutionary tidal wave. The transition is going to continue being choppy, uneven and likely violent toward at least a large regional, war. Do I think we get all out nuke exchange? No. But as for me I wish collaboration over violent conflict or competition but our evolutionary cycle suggests that is the shorter term path we're on. I wager the US and Chinese relationship may have a cold war period as each country rebalances with lot of the political rhetoric being for citizen consumption while perhaps cooperation continues (albeit a lesser level) between leadership. Longer term I see the relationship lasting a very, very long time.
Floating national currencies makes sense only in a free market. When one national currency achieved its prominence in international trade by a promise it later reneged on and later retained it by using its military, others will do whatever non-market forces they can muster to serve their interests.
However, it is no longer in China's interests to continue to peg the Yuan to US$. That said, it needs a transition to a new global currency (meant exclusively for international trade and not internal commerce) that retains China's savings denominated in US$. I don't expect such a currency to come into being with the participation of the USA. However, it will happen. I won't be surprised if the groundwork has already been completed and they are waiting for an event that can be used as an excuse to launch it. When that happens, the US$ will sink like a rock against that currency.
There is nothing special about China. The USA can trust no other country and no other country can trust the USA. When the USA collapses, as it inevitably will, and no longer can influence relations between nations, trust, based on mutual respect, can again form the basis of international relationships. The USA, if it even continues to exist as a single political entity, can continue to distrust everyone, but no one will bother to give it any attention.
Don't think so.
The business of Govt. is business because creating wealth creates power. Even if USA becomes the second largest economy, it is still the second largest.
Size does matter.
Trust based on mutual respect is a fantasy insofar that it hasn't been seen on this planet yet. There's a reason the saying "Good fences make good neighbors" has weathered the test of time.
For an American to understand China, all that is required is to imagine huge Chinese Naval bases in Nova Scotia and Mexico with bilateral trade agreements and China buying all Canadian, Mexican & Venezuelan oil exports.
Nobody likes a big fighting dog roaming around loose in the neighborhood.
Makes em nervous.
The planet has seen plenty of trust based on mutual respect, but I do agree that it is next to impossible for a Westerner to imagine that.
When the USA collapses, I don't know whether it will be the second largest economy or the tenth largest economy or whether it will even remain a single country. However, it will mean serious internal restructuring and for it to remain a viable political enetity significant amount of resources will have to be spent maintaining internal order and it will have little to spare for external power projection. So, yeah, when the US can no longer afford to project power beyond its borders and has little by way of exports to offer the rest of the world, I doubt anyone will bother whether the US trusts them or not.
Global Observer - How do you define collapse? The big debt party has a typical ending, mean reversion. It seemed a lot of the acceleration of debt/leverage began with LTCM in 1998 and never ceased. I dont have the number in front of me but I believe GDP was $9 T. It is unlikely all endeavors failed during then and now so perhaps we land at $11 T.
That would be one hell of a contraction and certainly a depression. But I don't see the U.S. rapidly 'collapse'. The economy started to nosedive in 2000 and here we are in 2014. If we have another six more years of stagflation then your talking 20 years of slow contraction and inflation -- simple enough to just say 20 years of stagflation. That has indeed been extraordinarily painful.
Sorry for the delay in the response. I define a collapse as an economic condition where the population doesn't believe in an across the board increase in economic well-being in the short/medium term after a significant contraction in economic activity and the government too stops pretending such a thing is possible through some policy changes. So obviously the US economy hasn't collapsed. But it will. It will collapse when the US$ stops buying goods and services in the international market. That will mean a sudden and permanent contraction in the level of consumption in the US. I don't expect the majority of the US population to grin and bear it. I am not sure what exactly will happen, but I expect something along the lines of what happened in Russia when the USSR collapsed. Economy and recovery will be the last things on anyone's mind, security and order will be.
The familiar name on China's news nowadays... ZH's new frequent Contributor :-) THE DIPLOMAT (TM)