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Welcome Janet: Worst February Start For Stocks In 32 Years
The Nasdaq plunged by the most in over 8 months today and broke all the way back to unchanged from the December taper decision of the Fed. All major US equity indices are now negative from the time the Fed decided to slow its flow of free money. The Dow closed below its 200DMA for the first time since December 2012. The S&P 500 closed the furthest below its 100DMA since QE3 started. USDJPY was in charge and everything was higher or lower beta off of that as it broke 102 early then 101 later in the day (with the Nikkei -700 points from the day's highs). Treasuries rallied around 5bps to fresh 7-month low yields for 30Y. Gold and Silver surged, adding 1% on the day as the USD lost 0.25% on the day (led by the 1% strength in the JPY). VIX smashed to 14 month highs over 21%. Credit deteriorated but stocks are catching down.
Just 8 hours into her reign, QEeen Janet has some work to do...
"Not off the lows"
The coming storm... DOW down 300+ points...worst February start since 1982...Nasdaq down 2.3%...worst monthly start since 1972... #Selloff
— Brian Mahoney (@btmahoney) February 3, 2014
Summing up the JPY carry trade unwind... (h/t @StalingradandPoor)
This is the worst start to a month since 1982 for the Dow and S&P and the worst since records started on the Nasdaq.
The Dow Industrials slammed back under the 200DMA - lowest in over 3 months; down 3% since the taper and down over 7% in 2014
The Nasdaq is down 2.6% - its biggest drop in 8 months - its worst start to a month on record; testing the 100DMA and unchanged to Taper
The S&P dropped 2.2% - its biggest drop since June; lowest in over 3 months and well below its 100DMA - furthest below its 100DMA sicne Nov 2012.
Since the taper, major indices are all negative now...
And since the new year, they are in trouble...
USDJPY was in charge...
VIX has risen 64% on the last 2 weeks - its fastest rise since the US debt downgrade debacle in summer 2011...and the highest close since December 2012
It seems, once again, that credit investors smelled something long before the exuberant marginal stock buyer...
The USD weakened led by JPY and EUR strength...
Treasuries were well bid all day after the weak ISM data... 2s10s pushed to 228bps - its lowest in over 3 months
What is perhaps more worrisome is the surge in bill-yields around the debt-ceiling...
And commodities were very mixed with growthy oil and copper down and safe haven gold and silver up...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: The Nikkei is down 2300 points year to date (from 16,450 to 14,160) and the Dow is down over 1200 points year-to-date (from 16,540 at the close of 2013 to 15,316 lows today)
Bonus Bonus Chart: HerbaLOL...
Bonus Bonus Bonus Chart: FX Carry implies a major unwind of the spec VIX Futures short positions...
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ooh every day the buying opportunity gets better and better.
Captain Kirk: This is an extremely primitive and paranoid culture.
What a beautiful day, fuck you the bernake, I mean yellen!
Margin call BITCHEZ!
Jump you fuck!
<---Today I feel Happy Hungry and Sleepy
<---Today I realized I fucked up listening to my broker
Great news for me as I shorted the DOW at 16,000 and went long on gold at 1,220.
As posted on here.
Waited 5 years for the setup.
Gold? HAhahaHhaAHAHAHA
At least today's action was more exciting/entertaining than the Super Bowl last night.
Still, this is nothing - I still have my "oh shit" line at like Dow 12K...and we have a long, long way to go for that to happen.
Damnit, Janet, we're fucking screwed.
John Ipstein on NPR said this morning Yellen is widely credited with predicting the housing crisis. LOL.
is it just me or does that picture of a deer seem to mark every bottom?
Oh, please.
Denver's performance mirrored that of stawks today.
Extremely entertaining.
get the patient a morphine drip, everything will be fine. you won't feel a thing, i promise!
With current market rules you can't reach 12K until Wednesday morning.
"Reports from multiple workers at the Marriner Eccles building of Ben Bernanke laughing maniacally as he exited the building for the final time last week were today denied by the Federal Reserve."
"He was just recalling a very funny joke he heard 18 years ago. It had nothing to do with the state in which he left the world economy and financial system, said a spokesman for the Federal Reserve."
All you can eat Janet
camaro 68ss "Jump you f*#@!"
Maybe they're being pushed...
A RASH OF DEATHS AND A MISSING REPORTER – WITH TIES TO WALL STREET INVESTIGATIONS>> the buying opportunity gets better and better.
Been that way with gold and silver for a couple of years. It gets old after a while.
BTFD = Big Time F***ing Drop.
A dike holding a dike, classic
She does have the Dutch boy haircut.
Too much liquidity. Nice.
Here comes the water...
All I knew and all I believed
are crumbling images
that no longer comfort me.
I scramble to reach higher ground,
some order and sanity,
or something to comfort me.
So I take what is mine,and hold what is mine,
suffocate what is mine, and bury what's mine.
Soon the water will come
and claim what is mine.
I must leave it behind,
and climb to a new place now.
This ground is not the rock I thought it to be.
Thought I was high, and free.
I thought I was there
divine destiny.
I was wrong.
This changes everything.
The water is rising up on me.
Thought the sun would come deliver me,
but the truth has come to punish me instead.
The ground is breaking down right under me.
Cleanse and purge me
in the water.
Janet was busy doing a practice run in NG
You got Yellen's head on the wrong body William!
"Old Yellen" already has her hands full. QE4 coming any day now to buy stocks.
Time to break out the Dow 15,000 hats again?
Or the 10,000?
Time to break out the US 10yr 2.50% hats again?
Or the 2.0% hats?
This isn't a taper, it's an amputation
operation BareBank...taking the backside off the world markets. Too much fat.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEKkJHSO8A0
Cue Monty Python and The Black Knight...Tis but a sctatch.. Tis but a flesh wound.. Right I'll do you for that.
Such is the state of this comedy
Haw, Ha, Ha; Eat shit and die Stock Market Fools. I love the deer in the headlights. LOL.
Soon it's time to replay the old Mark Haines video of dow 10,000.
delete
Good luck Mrs. Debtfire on getting all those stampeding sheep back. Maybe Ben will let you use his helicopter...
Does Yellin' have the keys ? to the copter or printer ?
Mrs Debtfire. That has a ring to it.
edit... double post
Wait....the drugs and booze aren't working anymore....
I picked a bad day to stop my Skittles, Az ice tea w Robitussen habit. Glade Springtime Mist and a straw anyone?
this is fucking awesome.
no more hearing these fuckers come on tv and talk about how great everything is, they all look so fucking sad and worried, and trying to come up with excuses as to why the markets keep tanking.
heck, they r already making excuses for a bad jobs report this friday, with what else, the weather to blame.
i only own gold and silver and no equity position whatsoever, i am not long, i am not short, i am out, yet i get such joy out of seeing this thing tank.
i hope its just the beginning.
Ditto.
Making some extra popcorn; gonna watch me some "Market Limbo:"
"How low can ya go; how low can ya go; how low can ya go..."
"...and on further examining economic data, the Federal Reserve Board has decided to increase its asset purchases..."
Not so fast! It's pushing treasury yields down. People are running to "safety." Which is more important, interest rates, or stocks? They just have to pull this off without cratering a megabank somewhere, and it'll extend things a little while longer. Then they can start stealing retirement accounts when this wears off. At some point, yes, they'll have to start printing again, but is it really now?
It's soon.
The thing that scares me, is that if they can put off the printing with stealing retirement accounts for a while, the un-taper will be that much larger and more violent. $85bn/mo? Pfft, that'll be for pikers. The other thing is, even if they do print, there's a good chance they'll still steal the retirement accounts. The printing will be to stop the shadow banking system from imploding, and the theft will be to keep interest rates down and the government funded. They're cunts, the lot of 'em. Nasty, stinky diseased cunts.
Fonz, the market hasnt seen these levels since mid October....... of 13
mathematically lower rates are of the utmost importance. the train gets fresh fuel and stays on the tracks.
the script is over yonder in the radiation zone...
besides, even some bond purchases, although less, are supportive of their ponzi scheme.
i don't think you will see 3 handle on tens for fucking ever.
17 going 18 trillion in a sinking economy.
get real with a calculator and figure it out.
just numbers...
I must have a death wish, but I'm playing a February bounce as of an hour ago...The situation is not out of control just yet. I think we will see some overnight intervention. Ol' Yellen needs to show she has a steady hand.....Calls will be made.
good luck with that dude
I wouldn't try to time it that tight. Wait until the Fed decides NOT to take the next anticipated $10B/mo. taper step.... then buy with both hands.
Pretty risky but entirely possible. We will see a bounce within the next 1-2 cash sessions in all likelihood regardless of lawboning/new scam announcement and some jawboning could even blast past 1772-1773 to 1812ish depending on who it comes from and what they say. That said, yikes not much support until 1646ish so if the rips are sold fairly quickly (look for stalling action at 1746 and 1760) then it prolly goes back to the current short and intermediate term trend which is down. 4 distribution days in the last 7 sessions for NYSE and 5 of last 8 for the Daq.
Those numbers jive with what I'm seeing. I like to think my risks are calculated, but this one does feel like more of a gamble than I would typically make. Just think that all the sad faces and fear make this a nice potential entry point. People were buying spy puts like mad today. March 175 puts were the most actively trade spy option today. Vol was over 80k contracts. Anyways...50 contracts/2.69 cost basis.
50 Feb 22 175 SPY calls to be clear. If it bounces, I'll either close or calendar spread on the weeklies.
Good luck and I am not being sarcastic I hope you get something from it. FWIW I plan to strongly consider a meaningful long position in SPY and IWM if we get to my 1646ish zone and I see a few things happen with my very own "not tainted by an MBA" eyes.
1646ish to 2150. Yup it looks and sounds crazy but if we get there and move off of it a certain way then I am projecting that . . . . . . and then maybe what very well could be the final crash.
Gambling, that's all this is.
I'm questioning the timing of this move. This seems very orchestrated and presents a trifecta or perfect storm of events. We have debt ceiling coming up, Bernanke tapers upon exit another 10 billion/month and the Yen trade is blowing up in everyone's face and the 10 year moving toward 2.50%. Once again, this will be used politically to increase the debt limit until August, right before midterm elections. But I can't decide how the market will react if Japan or the US starts acting. If Japan moves in to weaken the Yen I'm afraid its gonna blow up in their face and not work at all. Then, the dollar run will be on. Because if the Yen starts a parabolic move it will crush everything. what's the move here? Let the market find footing somewhere around 1650/1660 or is there so much leverage in the market that the Yen trade will go stop hunting and run us all the way down to S&P 1500. That would put us at a 19% pullback from the highs and staring into the abyss. Because below 1500 is limit down.
It's a good point DebtSlave. My ultimate reasons for the trade are simple, if not simplistic.... January was a shit show, it's a fresh month + they don't want Yellen to get off to a rocky start. Combine it with the fear and the put buying that's really picked up, I think we have the making of a retrace back to the 1780-1800 range in the next few days. The end of the carry trade certainly appears to matter. The debt ceiling bullshit does not -- or at least every trading strategy I used in the past attempting to profit based on market chaos failed. Made more money when I ignored it entirely....
Calls will be sold. Short.
Well, it's about to come true according to Fisher..
Cause his decision is based on the real economy, not the stock market, LOL!!!
He say moar taper..
I thought that gold and the miners were looking good this morning, really taking on the role of a fear trade, but then they really got hammered down throughout the day and went nowhere. Clearly gold (and thereby miners) got hit by a fucking mac truck between 245pm and 315.
A $3 dip between 2pm and 4 pm is getting hammered?
Spare me the drama, queenie.
Ok, not hammered, but turned a nice gain into nada.
> $5 is grounds for monkey hammering.
Same thing happened in 2008. After a few weeks they assumed their proper value. It takes a while for fact to sink into the tungsten heads.
You New Yorkers be careful walking around. Watch out for falling bankers.
It's rainin' men hallelujah. I love that song and I not gay, not that there is anything wrong with that.
It's raining men, hallelujah!
The thing is, it won't rain one sociopath (unless he is thrown).
Its the deep frozen bankersicles that really leave a mark.
Maybe some will join the 1/4 mile high club.
If she is the one responsible for holding fast to the taper, she will deserve my appreciation. (not likely though, she a product of the puppet farm)
Either way, nice to see some semblance to 'Price Discovery'.
The rationalizations and soothing words are starting.
"Weather" or "buy and hold" or "invest for the long term" or "the FED will stop tapering".
Un-fucking believable. Well, believable since we are down the rabbit hole.
S&P 500 Closed below 1750.
#CrashTime!
#BlackTuesday
Yeah, and NASDAQ broke below 4,000.
C'mon S&P 666 true valuation!
HEY JANET !!! GOT GOLD ???
Hey Hulk, quit Yellin'!
Janet Yellen = Captain Crash.
What a way to start out you career as the Fed Head.
Good thing you aren't steering a ship.
She can't come to the rescue when stocks are at all time highs.
Crash then inflate.
why are the gold miners down ?
Because they go down If EITHER: stocks are down OR gold is DOWN. Sometimes they just go down anyway.
You have to dig down for gold you know... /sarc
Isn't a gold mine just a great big hole in the ground with a guy standing beside it making promises?
Guns, Campbell´s and Bomb shelters.. Bitchez
Whatchu gonna do w Glen "Wicita Lineman" Campbell?
Steal his booze?
Welcome Janet?
Translation of Janet: Hebrew: Gift from God English: God has been gracious
God must have one helluva sense of humor. /
Now we know why all the insiders were selling every share they had.
Now the best trade is to watch the insider activity for signs of buying. When that happens you know a giant Fed orgasm is near. The insiders control the market and it will do what they want until they finally lose control. As long as they can control the market with HFT, this thing is in a permanent state of manipulation.
This still doesn't feel like a panic selloff and there is a long way to go just to erase the insanity of 2013. Until Facebook, Twitter, Netflix, Amazon and the rest of the ludicrous stocks lose at least 50% of thier value this market is still in lala land.
Panic no...but we need to start somewhere.
What we need right now is a good old fashioned bank failure
And by bank failure you mean of the central kind right?
How many bankers does it take to pave 'Wall Street'?
It depends on how thin you slice them...
Fractionalized bankers? Im long!
Damn it, Janet, Youre a dude....
RIPS
Turn those machines back on!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKYM62qSA_0
If you like your bull market, you can keep your bull market!
This is a test for yellen to see how big his balls really are.
he's going to have to grow a pair
Fedheads this week-"untaper"
and on a pomo day. i guess that trick doesn't work except to add liquidity for sellers.
The Herbalife ramp was based on their Q4 guidance.
So if I become a distributor and get 10 friends and they get 100 friends I'll be rich.
buybacks. (those are like barebacks for the sheeple)
the BareBanks are coming soon.
Mmmmm....
Roasted mutton.
DOW = Day of Wrath
it's coming, bitchez...this is just s teaser...
keep stackin' the phyzz!!!
I hope you're right...one big market clear...
Looks like someone is throwing in the spiderman towel.
You can bankia on it
Ah, hadn't heard it tossed around lately. But the new film is coming out soon...
What a great day, hope many more will follow. FED cares (mostly) about rates/spreads, equities are less important. As long as the economic data, rates and spreads are "ok", taper will continue
LMAO sheeple at the gate, a bit late to be getting out for the leveraged, is that a margin call?
Good luck to them passing the eye of the needle. May the odds be ever in their favor.
I thought the rule was when the NFC wins the superbowl the market rises. Clearly someone is fucking with us ...
Fundamentals only work in a real market lol
Next stop QE 4,5,6,7,8... The taper will be reeled in and the old presses will be traded in for the new super duper heavy duty ones that pump out a few hundred billion a month. Of course we will be told that our last efforts just weren't enough and that Janet has one upped Ben by employing a whole fleet of helicopters. Spring is just around the corner and the pundits will be howling about the green shoots everywhere and how the Summer of 2014 is most definetly the "Summer of recovery." But then again we may just have a big ole world war to take care of everything. As always when the hole is this deep there are only those 2 options. So which door will they choose? Personally I think they'll choose door number one. There is still enough oomph out there for at least another couple of QE's and blood is such a messy option.
Yes I know Abe is failing miserably at just such a thing but when has failure ever stopped TPTB from repeating the same mistakes over and over and over... After all we have just instituted a program, socialized medicine, here in the States that has failed in every country every time it has been tried. Surely it will work perfectly this time. Get those choppers in the air.
Trade wars are front and center now as the currency wars are failing and trust is erroding. Before you can stoke the fires of war you must first blame an enemy for your own misfortune and stoke the fires of hate. Watch for trade enemies in the news.
Ben stepped off the hamster wheel for 5 seconds and look what happens. Too bad ol' Yeller decided she didnt need to run as fast. QUICK give that old hag an epinephrine shot! MOAR PAPER
It's because the markets are sexist and they do not trust a female at the helm of the Fed. It's the ONLY excuse allowed.
Janet says not to panic.... (hic)
https://www.facebook.com/deepthoughtsbyjanetyellen?ref=profile
I will bet that, before she "returns," Ms. Yellen gets used to the taste of the undercarriage of a bus.
"If constructed with an extra half-beam, a guillotine can be dual-purposed as a gallows."
Yellen's plump pink finger is hovering above the print button.
Yellen, the bagged bag lady?
the markets r becoming cheaper i must admit.
entering the new year, the dow and s&p and nasdaq were very overvalued.
now the dow is only overvalued by 15, 372 pts, the s&p is overvalued by 1,741.89 pts, and the nasdaq by 3.996.9 pts.
much cheaper than a few weeks ago.
Deer in the headlights! Yes!
Hey maybe my crash protection will finally go green.
Oh and the gold/silver ratio is 65:1 which says you should probably prefer silver over gold at the moment. (this doesn't apply to those of us in Europe who have to pay VAT on the stuff)
Like the sheep pic.
and -2% now that's what i'm talking about with the deer pic.
Vat on newly minted silver. Picked up silver maples from a local dealer in London second hand, looked like mint condition to me, for 17 pounds. The price equivalent of 40 cigarettes, you just can't make it up. Welcome to the twilight zone
Well if they ever wanted to make a woman in charge look incompetent, this was a good start. Oh, and you're quoting a B-list actor opining on the markets why?
Quick, print something.
Here's your big winner on the day: http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/JO
with a little sugar with that as well apparently.
"these aren't people selling stocks. these are people buying food."
Good luck with that trade.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJxAoszYUzU
My EEV & EDZ has been working out pretty good too...
End the FED. Arrest Janet Yellen for treason.
For those of us who lament the "normalcy bias" I offer the next pitfall, the oh-so-helpful "abnormalcy bias". If I have learned one thing on zerohedge it is that the ptb can and will buy themselves as much time as possible. What would you do with a bunch of electronic balances that cost you nothing and will soon be worth nothing than protect your way of life? The ruebenesque matron has not quite yet orated mellifluously. Protect yourself, but beware of those who say today is TEOTWAWKI.
FOMC = crash dummies.
Tyler, I had to give you a five just for the graphics. lol. Looks like the deer may have competition.
why does it feel like as soon as I joined ZH the markets started collapsing? 'correlation is not causation' but it damn sure feels like it.
Yeah but... I thought Wall Street had total confidence in Janet Yellen...
Pair trade of the week: short the NASDAQ (QQQ) to buy gold miners (GDX). I love the NASDAQ because it's such an easy target. Look how much bullshit it has:
Tesla Motors - no profits
Twitter - no profits
Facebook - 105 PE
Starbucks - 530 PE
Amazon - 590 PE
SOCHI - TERROR
Sell off due to an imminent attack in Sochi. We've seen this before. The next big terror attack is a game changer like 9/11 was.
Alternatively:
Liquidity problems but where? Argentina, India, China or Turkey? Could be any of those and banks trying to fill holes. Then cascading sell offs triggered when crucial support limits are breached.
This CRASH has legs.
Correction is when all players are safe and sound, nothing to worry about and assets correct from a hyped up value just because. Correction is NOT when the Fed reduces its asset buying program further and further due to whatever their real reasoning is.
That is a crash landing and everyone will want to leave the casino before the word is spreading. Is that even possible?
Whatever happens, I'm glad I'm out 100%.
liquidity trap
Course... Now is the point the chairman of the fed gets up on stage and begins tap dancing, the various media whores get rolled out etc and TADAAAA everything bounces like a pavlovian rubber ball.
This paradigm is circling the drain and about to be flushed down the shithole of history for good.
Fuck Yellen. Bitch cut my FAFSA by a buck for Spring semester.
300 is nothing. Give me 700. This isn't frontpage stuff yet... Probably just an excuse to print more.
Definitely will continue watching because it will affect customers' perceptions.