Welcome Janet: Worst February Start For Stocks In 32 Years

Tyler Durden's picture


The Nasdaq plunged by the most in over 8 months today and broke all the way back to unchanged from the December taper decision of the Fed. All major US equity indices are now negative from the time the Fed decided to slow its flow of free money. The Dow closed below its 200DMA for the first time since December 2012. The S&P 500 closed the furthest below its 100DMA since QE3 started. USDJPY was in charge and everything was higher or lower beta off of that as it broke 102 early then 101 later in the day (with the Nikkei -700 points from the day's highs). Treasuries rallied around 5bps to fresh 7-month low yields for 30Y. Gold and Silver surged, adding 1% on the day as the USD lost 0.25% on the day (led by the 1% strength in the JPY). VIX smashed to 14 month highs over 21%. Credit deteriorated but stocks are catching down.

Just 8 hours into her reign, QEeen Janet has some work to do...

"Not off the lows"



Summing up the JPY carry trade unwind... (h/t @StalingradandPoor)


This is the worst start to a month since 1982 for the Dow and S&P and the worst since records started on the Nasdaq.

The Dow Industrials slammed back under the 200DMA - lowest in over 3 months; down 3% since the taper and down over 7% in 2014

The Nasdaq is down 2.6% - its biggest drop in 8 months - its worst start to a month on record; testing the 100DMA and unchanged to Taper

The S&P dropped 2.2% - its biggest drop since June; lowest in over 3 months and well below its 100DMA - furthest below its 100DMA sicne Nov 2012.


Since the taper, major indices are all negative now...


And since the new year, they are in trouble...


USDJPY was in charge...


VIX has risen 64% on the last 2 weeks - its fastest rise since the US debt downgrade debacle in summer 2011...and the highest close since December 2012


It seems, once again, that credit investors smelled something long before the exuberant marginal stock buyer...


The USD weakened led by JPY and EUR strength...


Treasuries were well bid all day after the weak ISM data... 2s10s pushed to 228bps - its lowest in over 3 months


What is perhaps more worrisome is the surge in bill-yields around the debt-ceiling...


And commodities were very mixed with growthy oil and copper down and safe haven gold and silver up...


Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: The Nikkei is down 2300 points year to date (from 16,450 to 14,160) and the Dow is down over 1200 points year-to-date (from 16,540 at the close of 2013 to 15,316 lows today)


Bonus Bonus Chart: HerbaLOL...


Bonus Bonus Bonus Chart: FX Carry implies a major unwind of the spec VIX Futures short positions...

Your rating: None

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Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:07 | 4397206 RacerX
RacerX's picture

ooh every day the buying opportunity gets better and better.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:08 | 4397211 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Captain Kirk: This is an extremely primitive and paranoid culture. 

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:11 | 4397223 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

What a beautiful day, fuck you the bernake, I mean yellen!

 Margin call BITCHEZ!

Jump you fuck!

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:16 | 4397243 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

<---Today I feel Happy Hungry and Sleepy

<---Today I realized I fucked up listening to my broker

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:19 | 4397267 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

Great news for me as I shorted the DOW at 16,000 and went long on gold at 1,220.

As posted on here.

Waited 5 years for the setup.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:27 | 4397302 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Gold? HAhahaHhaAHAHAHA

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:33 | 4397322 Rick Blaine
Rick Blaine's picture

At least today's action was more exciting/entertaining than the Super Bowl last night.

Still, this is nothing - I still have my "oh shit" line at like Dow 12K...and we have a long, long way to go for that to happen.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:58 | 4397420 fuu
fuu's picture

Damnit, Janet, we're fucking screwed.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 18:18 | 4397501 Erudite Redneck
Erudite Redneck's picture

John Ipstein on NPR said this morning Yellen is widely credited with predicting the housing crisis. LOL.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 18:21 | 4397505 long-shorty
long-shorty's picture

is it just me or does that picture of a deer seem to mark every bottom?

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 18:49 | 4397647 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Oh, please.

Denver's performance mirrored that of stawks today.

Extremely entertaining.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 19:43 | 4397890 new game
new game's picture

get the patient a morphine drip, everything will be fine. you won't feel a thing, i promise!

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 20:29 | 4398105 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

With current market rules you can't reach 12K until Wednesday morning.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:29 | 4397296 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

"Reports from multiple workers at the Marriner Eccles building of Ben Bernanke laughing maniacally as he exited the building for the final time last week were today denied by the Federal Reserve."

"He was just recalling a very funny joke he heard 18 years ago.  It had nothing to do with the state in which he left the world economy and financial system, said a spokesman for the Federal Reserve."

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:31 | 4397315 SoilMyselfRotten
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All you can eat Janet

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:42 | 4397355 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

camaro 68ss "Jump you f*#@!"

                                                      Maybe they're being pushed...

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:09 | 4397214 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> the buying opportunity gets better and better.

Been that way with gold and silver for a couple of years.  It gets old after a while.



Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:13 | 4397230 666
666's picture

BTFD = Big Time F***ing Drop.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:17 | 4397250 williambanzai7
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Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:19 | 4397269 camaro68ss
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A dike holding a dike, classic

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:55 | 4397399 Agent P
Agent P's picture

She does have the Dutch boy haircut. 

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:24 | 4397286 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Too much liquidity. Nice.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:39 | 4397349 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

Here comes the water...

All I knew and all I believed
are crumbling images

that no longer comfort me.
I scramble to reach higher ground,
some order and sanity,
or something to comfort me.

So I take what is mine,and hold what is mine,

suffocate what is mine, and bury what's mine.
Soon the water will come
and claim what is mine.
I must leave it behind,
and climb to a new place now.

This ground is not the rock I thought it to be.

Thought I was high, and free.
I thought I was there
divine destiny.

I was wrong.
This changes everything.

The water is rising up on me.
Thought the sun would come deliver me,
but the truth has come to punish me instead.

The ground is breaking down right under me.
Cleanse and purge me
in the water.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:39 | 4397348 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Janet was busy doing a practice run in NG

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:53 | 4397394 williambanzai7
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Tue, 02/04/2014 - 02:44 | 4399266 Colonel Klink
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You got Yellen's head on the wrong body William!

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 19:59 | 4397957 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

"Old Yellen" already has her hands full. QE4 coming any day now to buy stocks.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:09 | 4397208 Droel
Droel's picture

Time to break out the Dow 15,000 hats again?

Or the 10,000?

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:15 | 4397235 Boston
Boston's picture

Time to break out the US 10yr 2.50% hats again?

Or the 2.0% hats?

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:21 | 4397273 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

This isn't a taper, it's an amputation

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:42 | 4397338 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

operation BareBank...taking the backside off the world markets.  Too much fat.



Mon, 02/03/2014 - 18:00 | 4397423 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Cue Monty Python and The Black Knight...Tis but a sctatch.. Tis but a flesh wound.. Right I'll do you for that.

Such is the state of this comedy

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 18:54 | 4397691 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Haw, Ha, Ha; Eat shit and die Stock Market Fools. I love the deer in the headlights. LOL.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:32 | 4397323 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Soon it's time to replay the old Mark Haines video of dow 10,000.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:08 | 4397209 Droel
Droel's picture


Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:11 | 4397217 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Good luck Mrs. Debtfire on getting all those stampeding sheep back. Maybe Ben will let you use his helicopter...

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:40 | 4397357 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Does Yellin' have the keys ?  to the copter or printer ?

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 21:01 | 4398269 buckethead
buckethead's picture

Mrs Debtfire. That has a ring to it.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 21:25 | 4398375 buckethead
buckethead's picture

edit... double post

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:11 | 4397218 Make_Mine_A_Double
Make_Mine_A_Double's picture

Wait....the drugs and booze aren't working anymore....

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:17 | 4397254 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

I picked a bad day to stop my Skittles, Az ice tea w Robitussen habit. Glade Springtime Mist and a straw anyone?

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:12 | 4397219 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

this is fucking awesome.


no more hearing these fuckers come on tv and talk about how great everything is, they all look so fucking sad and worried, and trying to come up with excuses as to why the markets keep tanking.


heck, they r already making excuses for a bad jobs report this friday, with what else, the weather to blame.


i only own gold and silver and no equity position whatsoever, i am not long, i am not short, i am out, yet i get such joy out of seeing this thing tank.


i hope its just the beginning.

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:17 | 4397255 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture




Making some extra popcorn; gonna watch me some "Market Limbo:"

"How low can ya go; how low can ya go; how low can ya go..."



Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:20 | 4397262 F-Tipp
F-Tipp's picture

"...and on further examining economic data, the Federal Reserve Board has decided to increase its asset purchases..."

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:53 | 4397397 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Not so fast!  It's pushing treasury yields down.  People are running to "safety."  Which is more important, interest rates, or stocks?  They just have to pull this off without cratering a megabank somewhere, and it'll extend things a little while longer.  Then they can start stealing retirement accounts when this wears off.  At some point, yes, they'll have to start printing again, but is it really now?

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 18:04 | 4397432 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It's soon. 

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 18:08 | 4397449 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

The thing that scares me, is that if they can put off the printing with stealing retirement accounts for a while, the un-taper will be that much larger and more violent.  $85bn/mo?  Pfft, that'll be for pikers.  The other thing is, even if they do print, there's a good chance they'll still steal the retirement accounts.  The printing will be to stop the shadow banking system from imploding, and the theft will be to keep interest rates down and the government funded.  They're cunts, the lot of 'em.  Nasty, stinky diseased cunts. 

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 19:37 | 4397866 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

Fonz, the market hasnt seen these levels since mid October....... of 13

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 19:54 | 4397928 new game
new game's picture

mathematically lower rates are of the utmost importance. the train gets fresh fuel and stays on the tracks.

the script is over yonder in the radiation zone...

besides, even some bond purchases, although less, are supportive of their ponzi scheme.

i don't think you will see 3 handle on tens for fucking ever.

17 going 18 trillion in a sinking economy.

get real with a calculator and figure it out.

just numbers...

Mon, 02/03/2014 - 17:10 | 4397220 TheLooza
TheLooza's picture

I must have a death wish, but I'm playing a February bounce as of an hour ago...The situation is not out of control just yet.  I think we will see some overnight intervention.  Ol' Yellen needs to show she has a steady hand.....Calls will be made.

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