This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Marc Faber Fears "A Vicious Circle To The Downside" Is Just Beginning
"It's not just tapering that is putting pressure on markets," Marc Faber warns in thie brief clip. "Emerging economies have practically no growth and we have a slowdown in China that is more meaningful than strategists are willing to believe," he adds and this is "causing a vicious circle to the downside" in inflated asset markets as most of the growth in the world over the last five years has come from emerging markets. Faber suggests Treasuries as a safe haven in the short-term; but is nervous of their value in the long-term as "debt is becoming burdensome on the system."
"A lot of economic growth was driven by soaring asset prices"
On Treasuries:
"For the next three to six months probably they are a better place to be than equities,"
"I don't like [10-year Treasurys] for the long-term because the maximum you can earn is something like 2.65 percent per annum for the next 10 years, but Treasurys are expected to rally because of economic weakness and a stock market decline. In the last few years at least there was a flight into quality – that is, a flight into Treasurys."
On China and shadow banking defaults:
"China can handle it by printing money but it will again have unintended negative consequences... but the
problem is real... but it's not just in China..."
Faber warned of the risks of the present global credit bubble and said another slowdown could follow on the back of rising consumer debt levels – which had previously helped to create growth.
"Total credit as a percent of the global economy is now 30 percent higher than it was at the start of the economic crisis in 2007, we have had rapidly escalating household debt especially in emerging economies and resource economies like Canada and Australia and we have come to a point where household debt has become burdensome on the system—that is, where an economic slowdown follows."
- 54308 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -


No boom in the doom and gloom man.
eventually Marc will be right ....
Marc Faber: buy UST
The truth hurts bitchez
Having to strategically pass through the dining room of the Titanic on one's way to the lifeboats does not thereby imply that one should remain indefinitely in the dining room of the doomed ship.
But we know that we can always count on James Cole(ostemy) to be a stalwart defender of the fiat US dollar, and of the corrupt status-quo more generally.
I'm still all but convinced that you are actually Jon Nadler.
Fedipulation Continues...
GOLD Back To The Same 1250 Point, AGAIN!!! AND Dow UP...
Same Old Magical Bullshit.
I usually aree with Faber, but the risk reward on treasuries sucks.
When someone wants to get out of treasuries, everyone will be rushing to the exit.
"Liquidity is always an illusion."
Michael Milkin
"...collecting nickels in front of a bulldozer..." comes to mind... Taleb.
Even Faber displays that almost universal inability to correctly measure risk when seeking a reward....those boarding the Titanic believed the ship to be unsinkable.
Time to bring in the hordes.
http://americandictators.blogspot.com/2013/07/legal-immigration-and-immi...
there is a parking spot with your name all over it.
you are mr. bond? well than park that bitch!
Something's happening here,
What it is, ain't exactly clear,
There's a man with a gun over there,
Telling me I've got to beware . . .
Well now, ain't that the truth.
The rhythmic chime of Buffalo Springfield. Ahhhh...
They succeeded more than they knew. They became the enemy, but at the same time taught their nemesi.
LULZ. Americans will try to be illegal immigrants to CANADA & all over the world during the Empire collapse.
BaBaB--
"Fedipulation Continues..."
Yep, got it ;-)
- Ned
I'm still all but convinced that you are actually Jon Nadler.
Nope, Jon is too busy running Barrick these days to hang out on zh.
http://www.mining.com/barrick-gold-recalculates-gold-reserves-based-on-1...
Newsflash, James: Jon Nadler (and/or his ilk) HAVE been running The Evil Empire, a.k.a. Barrick Gold (sic), for nigh on three decades now.
By the way, what was that little revelation from Barrick oh, around ten years ago, in the Blanchard case about trying to claim sovereign immunity for suppressing the price of gold on behalf of the US government?
There's an interesting endpoint to your logic which seems to have escaped you. If everyone is suppressing the gold price on belaf of the US .gov - including no less than the worlds biggest gold producer - what does that suggest about gold as investment vs. ust?
Note, I'm not making that argument but you are lol
There's an interesting gap (well, the latest of many) in your 'logic' which seems to have escaped you.
In what way does Barrick constitute "everyone"?
Oh, and there is another interesting gap in your 'logic' which seems to have escaped you: how many market distortions and manipulations have lasted indefinitely, or forever?
Indeed, you are looking more and more like Jon Nadler all the time.
In what way does Barrick constitute "everyone"?
Everyone important: all the exchanges, futures, etfs, biggest gold producer (no doubt to your mind many of the other producers), the WGC... the list is exhaustive. Seemingly the only ones you are certain aren't supressing the price are a few internet sites + Schiff and his buddies lolThat's quite a netfull of red herrings you've dredged up there, james.
For the record, I have never implicated nor even discussed the exchanges, futures market, or ETFs as part of the official campaign of suppression of the price of gold. The WGC most certainly has an anti-monetary gold bias, but again, is not part of the price suppression. For that matter, most if not all 'establishment' organizations and mouthpieces are part of the anti-gold propaganda campaign, but do not and can not take part in the obvious gold price manipulation, which is presumably mostly in the hands of the US Federal Reserve and certain other central banks and their lackeys (i.e., JP Morgan).
For the record, I have never implicated nor even discussed the exchanges, futures market, or ETFs as part of the official campaign of suppression of the price of gold.
My memory isn't good, but it's not that bad.
And the weasel squirms when confronted by his (latest) lies.
I live in Canada and we have coined a term here; "Nillionaires"
Nillioanires are everywhere, they have leased cars, maxed out credit lines, and own million dollar houses with 5% down. They look like millionaires but have NIL in the bank.
It's epidemic, Canadians are absolutely clueless as to the reality of this world. Canada will be hit especially hard, since consumer debt is far higher per person than it was in the US in 2007.
Canada is doomed.
Classic...+100
Doomed may be a bit strong..., but in for a rude awakening seems to fit.
(along with the rest of us)
I would NOT have guessed that Canadians were more in debt than Americans!! Thanks for that piece of "weird but true" news.
only because they can borrow easier than americans.
There is not an insignificant number of (socialist) Canadians who view themselves as being smarter than the "typical" American (redneck)....
After all, Canada avoided the worst of the "financial crisis" in 2008 since their banks were much more conservative (i.e. risk averse) than their US counterparts...our health care system is "superior" to the US system that serves only the rich, blah, blah, blah
There is a certain (completley unjustified) snobbiness to a large element of Canadian society (the socialists) who will be in for the shock of their lives when their treasured social programs are completely gutted by economic reality coming soon to indebted governments the world over...
Instead of learning from the mistakes the US (banks & consumers) made, Canadians are determined to prove they are "smarter" & in so doing, will prove they are just as dumb, if not dumber.
You know, I have liked almost every Canadian that I have ever met, but you are exactly right, there IS a certain snobbishness among many Canadians, along with their well-known nationalistic insecurity that is continually manifesting itself by Canadians constantly trying to convince themselves that they are SO different from the USA, when 99% of the time they (or their products) are just Americans with a red maple leaf slapped on somewhere.
You damn right.
Canadians are just about like americans except we lack the greedy liar gene. You know, the gene that makes americans invade, pillage, and murder in foreign lands so they can steal the natural resources of those lands.
So ya, Canadians are different from americans.
Stay the fuck off my lawn.
Stack On
My favorite thing about Canada has a gold maple leaf stamped on it.
Gordon Lightfoots ass?
Ya don't mind sucking up to Fidel? Why brag about how wonderful you are now?
Fidel Castro was a fine man compared to almost any American leader, except JFK. Kennedy was a decent President.
It's not the products, it's the culture. We have a culture which is NOT built on corruption upon each other, though, if you ask any First Nations people, especially those stuck on reserves, they will have a deserved differing opinion.
We also have more land to work with than the USA so our future looks bright so long as we can keep the illegal American immigrants down to a decent input-stream. Useful: come on in. Racist, nazi, right-wing bible-thumper: don't bother crossing our border.
careful with double negatives
Ya wanna see Canuck pride at work? Listen to the Howie Carr show at AM 680 WRKO, from Boston MA. There is a guy named Steve, who iwll call in from Montreal everyonce in a while. He is always giving the leftie line and bragging about Canada's health care system. He is the perfect example of Canadian arrogance and makes ya want to vomit!
You're an idiot. Our healthcare system delivers more & costs less. Period. Americans always pretend wait-times are years but they aren't. Wait times are manageable & the only situation I've ever seen go really wrong was a friend of mine who needed a heart transplant. He wouldn't stop smoking & he can't get a transplant until someone's ready WITH a compatible heart & no amount of money in the world will get you that faster unless you're willing to find a donor & kill him/her early. We don't do that & far as I know, Americans don't either.
Gutted? So far we have the tax dollars to pay for it. Show me the job losses & I'll agree with you. Those jobs pay revenue into healthcare & while transfer payments happen between Federal & Provincial, each province runs its own firewalled healthcare budget. That means if one province can do better it will do better even if another falters for a healthcare budget.
Plus there's prevention: I've been smart enough that I haven't needed to have a doctor at all since age 8.
I don't depend on the healthcare system but if a broken leg happens it's nice, though rare, to have an affordable fix-up.
Perhaps it's consumers trying to keep up with the latest iCrap & xBaux.
Or maybe cars? Dunno. Housing isn't in a bubble in every city, Toronto & Vancouver, Winnipeg don't represent the entire country.
On the other hand, we also don't have giant medical debt to deal with. Our healthcare system is very cost efficient per person, even per taxpayer, so the typical American model of 3 mortgages to pay for medical care isn't how we do things here.
I carry no debt. I don't know about everyone else but around me it looks like cars & houses are what does it. Student loans may be the case too but education costs far, far less in Canada than the USA.
I think you mean the "North American Union".
Hmmm, a good term to use as far as the majority of Australians are right now. We can get so far into debt we can buy a house full of shit and not even commence payments for three years, by which time that shit you brought is already falling to pieces.
I've been meaning to ask.
How can I get my ass deported to Australia?
dress up like a big kangaroo
ask for asylum
the easy part is to steal a loaf of bread.
The hard part is to get a time machine to take you back to Ireland 200 years ago
You will find that your donkey is ineligible for transit to (and agistment within) Australia or New Zealand, if it emanates from a Rabies-prone jurisdiction.
Sorry.
I live in Canada and I've never heard of a nillionaire. Must be a eastern canada thing. Where I live the millionaires drive old pick up trucks and wear rubber boots. There is no keeping up with the jones. My debt is very low, my stack is growing higher and I woke up quite a while ago.
Eastern Canada is doomed.
Stack On
Agreed: I've never heard of it & see little of the Jones'town syndrome.
With the high incomes though I'd hope people would know better than to go so deep into debt. I guess not.
Let the good times roll & imagine it can never end. I didn't know Alberta & Manitoba had so many unicorns & leprechaun hunters.
Not this Canadian: stocked food, gold, silver, no debt, no excessive bills, reliable job & ability to just move on if needed.
Hey bud, this is just business as usual. One of my favorites is when they analyze charts. Charts of the 'manipulated/controlled' market, be it gold, stocks or whatever.
It never occurs to them that charts derived from manipulated markets are meaningless.
But this is the place where you can have it both ways! Important charts from false and manipulated markets.
Charts derived from a manipulated market show the timing & degree of manipulation.
That's not meaningless, that's critical. Same as how NANEX charts fraud in quotes. Hunsader is not telling you how the market ought to move, he's showing forensic evidence of a crime scene.
No, the biggest gold producers will be China, a country, not a company.
The etf's don't even matter at all & Barrick certainly is NOT in charge of those.
akak covered it, but again, dude... that IS the reason to sell fiat
the fact gold prices are supressed/managedrise give ample opportunity to "level the global playing field" a cum-shot excitement for any one-worlder, having knock-on effects for the westerners who dont subscribe to 'they'll never hold an asset that is going nowhere' in nominal terms
havent you seen a forest fire (thanks Mark), or read Taleb, or looked a nature ?
supression is a double edged sword, and those edges... cut only fiat humping history deniers
Anyone.
Why shouldn't gold prices be just as command controlled as interest rates? Or Maiden Lane's Plung Protection Team...and so forth to other "assests".
Isn't the idea of a return to some metallic system to be as fought, destroyed, the enemy as much as any idea say during Stalin, or Pol Pot?
So isn't the gold market just as fake free market as any other?
Gold is such a tiny market that manipulating it would be the first order of business for evildoers.
Stock and bonds are incredibly huge markets compared to gold and silver. Hell, a couple of Texans almost cornered the silver market around 1980. Ran it up to $40 an ounce, adjust THAT for inflation.
Their desperation to control interest rates lower is why gold has to be controlled. It's called Gibson's Paradox.
"Due in no small measure to articles he wrote as a young economist, especially his 1966 essay "Gold and Economic Freedom" (reprinted in A. Rand, Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal), Fed chairman Alan Greenspan is widely recognized as quite an authority on gold. Far less widely known are professional articles on gold by another young economist who also went on to serve until quite recently in some of the nation's top economic policy positions.
Not long before joining the new Clinton administration as undersecretary of the treasury for international affairs, Harvard president and former treasury secretary Lawrence H. Summers, then Nathaniel Ropes professor of political economy at Harvard, co-authored with Robert B. Barsky an article entitled "Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard" published in the Journal of Political Economy (vol. 96, June 1988, pp. 528-550). The article, which appears to draw heavily on a 1985 working paper of the same title by the same authors, is an excellent technical piece, revealing a high level of expertise regarding gold, gold mining, and the interconnections among gold prices, interest rates, and inflation.
Indeed, for any administration concerned that the bond vigilantes on Wall Street might thwart its economic policies by pushing up long-term rates at inopportune times, the article is must reading and qualifies its authors as attractive candidates for government service. Of even more interest looking at the Clinton administration retrospectively, the article provides strong theoretical evidence that since 1995 gold prices have not acted as would normally be expected in a genuine free market, but instead have behaved as if subject to what the authors describe as "government pegging operations."
Lord Keynes gave the name "Gibson's paradox" to the correlation between interest rates and the general price level observed during the period of the classical gold standard. It was, he said, "one of the most completely established empirical facts in the whole field of quantitative economics." J.M. Keynes, A Treatise on Money (Macmillan, 1930), vol. 2, p.198. And it was a paradox because contemporary monetary theory, largely associated with Irving Fisher, suggested that interest rates should move with the rate of change in prices, i.e., the inflation rate or expected inflation rate, rather than the price level itself. Yet when Keynes wrote, data for the prior two centuries showed that the yield on British consols (government securities issued at a fixed rate of interest but with no redemption date) had moved in close correlation with wholesale prices but almost no correlation to the inflation rate."............
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gibsons-paradox-revisited-professor-summers-analyzes-gold-prices
It suggests that the proper investment of gold is to ensure you have the physical gold & can make use of it, not to value it in paper for anything but initial cost of acquisition in work-hours proxied into dollars/euros/yen.
Not even Faber could anticipate the recklessness of the Fed experimentation, running balance sheets and debt to infinity and compel us to use the worthless currency units through force majeure as if they had value.
There were not enough life boats for everyone.
I'm not sure man. Shouldn't the yield curve flatten before stocks crash? Or is that not going to happen this time? I think, unless you are at the top, the only safe position is no debt and physical assets. Otherwise, your financial instruments will fuck you one way or the other.
Shouldn't the yield curve flatten before stocks crash?
Shouldn't we have some bacon and beans, if we had some bacon, but we don't have any beans?
Can't disagree one iota with the last half of your comment, though.
yo, prof, just a small thang.
If u lock
Then load
Then the projo has a smashed doze
And therez no way for the pin to hit nothin'
Right you are Sir, but the Fed is hiding things in plain sight.
The yield curve is extremely flat by comparison with markets pre-2008.
A better way to look at it is risk quality. No more junk bonds, are there? The PIGGS pay about the same interest rates that I do. Defaults don't hurt MUNIs any more. That can't be right, now can it?
yeah id say short rates'd be negative, shadow liq gone, assets collapsed without ior & rrf pinning the spread.
what ever historical curve templates suit ya seems irrelevant due to:
1. new world order -- after 1983-84, the world believed in and subscribed to full debt/fiat global mon sys, where depressions earn supply rather than resrtict
2. serious manipulation in long yields with derivatives (thanks td), short yields with ior, rrf
so fuk a curve, a dollar, and centralizing collateral clearing
You folks propagating the graphs, history and linguistics of THE FED are just reinforcing it as a LEGITIMATE ENTITY.
Why, for fucks sake?
even broken clocks are more often right than this joker. regardless of what is happening, the broken record of Faber is alway (buy gold, world is going to end...blah, blah, blah). the just need to interview him once and just hit repeat if they want his opinion. I can't remember how long gold short S&P worked in 2013, or a rolling 12 month for that matter
OK, you disagree. Go long US stawks then.
"A Vicious Circle To The Downside"Sounds like what happens when you flush the shit down the toilet.
Dude Faber has made billions being a contrarian over the last 35 years, if you want to be a herd rider, and ride this shit up, only to watch as your fake ass wealth is wiped out in 24 hours, be my guest!!!
Oh I know, you'll be the one motherfucker who sold at the top, just like the all the others, but the truth is, no one ever sells at the top, because the brokers, banks, and anyone else who actually controls your fucking stock account, has zero interest in you making money, their ONLY interest is in holding your money and charging you fees as they tell you shit will go to the moon!!
Enjoy this bullshit charade while it lasts, because yes, one day it will be gone and Faber will be right.........and you will be broke!!
Yes and today my broken clock will be right twice today as well. I do not give it credit for that though as it is just the laws of inevitability.
And trees grow to the sky.
My broken clock says 88:88
I do believe I sold at the top. Yay me!
he's investing, not trading.
omp too.
his record is good, gartman and stolper are more on that blind squirrel tip if reccos taken on face
he says stocks could go up, but will then have a bad crash, and has maintained this for 2-3 yrs, true
If you follow him, Faber would've have you invested in:
1. gold physical
2. real estate
3. asian dividend paying equities ----> cash --------->Ts
4. cash
rough 25% allo, but obviously variation to suit individual clients
Imject...True, and will you be ready? Most, even though they have heard the warnings, never are.
Repetition = Franchise
You mean, eventually Faber will be vindicated.
Same shit from him 6 years running.
mmm
I think Faber's comments & opinions change daily based on the particular blend of hashish oil he is ingesting on any given day.
Between the hashish oil and Thai body oils I'm surprised the man can form a coherant thought.
I'd probably just smile a lot.
I know the guy seems annoyingly repetitive, but he represents the fundamental gap that exists between the current "thinkers" at the Fed and the political order of Kenyesian clowns in this Country and the counter opinion that represents 1000's of years of human instinct and natural law and order!!
The Kenyesians want you to believe that they have done something NEW in this great American experiment of the USD and Federal Banking, that they have accomplished something never before accomplished in human history, that the USD will defy all human nature and instincts and transcend economic theory! They want you believe, they truly are the Masters of the Universe and they control all supply and demand and that they have brought under control the animal instincts of man AND that they can control all these things indefinitely, to the never ending benefit of 350 million people of this planet, which is populated by 7 billion and growing every minute!!!
So yes Faber and Company (me included) think this is total and utter bullshit, which can't and will not succeed nor is it ever been possible to succeed, for to do so would imply the impossible, that human beings were in fact, no longer human!! That greed, selfishness, instincts of self preservation, and instincts of tribal (your family over mine) preservation no longer apply to Americans and indirectly the rest of the interconnected planet!! That in the end, we will all just walk down the plank together, holding hands and singing praises, because its the civilized, orderly thing to do!!
So which is it Faber bashers, are you still human or have you transcended it all to become some perfect being of economic consumption and civilized citizen of the world?? I can't wait to find out, as the resources of this planet and Country continue to become more scarce and the money become less and less valuable, I suspect you'll find out very fast, that no you are indeed VERY human and tribal and selfish, and will care very mush about your self preservation!!
But until then, enjoy your NEW elevated status as Super Human American savior of all!!
Oh, I like Faber just fine.
Thought I was just makin' funny.
I like Faber, too - he's eccentric and a Freebird. That's appealing for we libertarians.
My comment was specifically aimed at the fact he recommended "government paper" today, even if he qualified that by only recommending short term trash.
Promoting US-TREASURY Paper
Had he NOT promoted US Treasury paper do you actually think he would ever be invited ever again to espouse his expertise on CNBC?
I think not.
*
GIVEN that 99% of the US is about FUCKING people, telling the PUBLIC to 'LOCK' their money into treasurydirect.com, ... is probably not a bad idea, ... I suspect what the assholes here hate most is that goes against their commissions and take.
For a neophyte 'investor' not sure where to put his/her money not bad advice,... if he were to pander that the should open an offshore-account, I am sure he would be getting visits for the local FBI agent at the chiang-mai station house.
Even giving people advice to get their MONEY out of DODGE is frowned by the IRS.
He has a smile Beelzebub would be proud of.
No i know you and TIS do, I wasn't trying to call you guys out specifically, just making a general point to the bashers, who for whatever reason think Faber is a fool!
Renewable...well said, generally.
Kenyesian Clowns a Synonym for Zionist Shills
I love "Tomorrow's GOLD", its only 1 of 4 books I keep by my bed, and the other 2 are cook books :)
*
The FSA & the COPS ( judges and gendarmes ) would call themselves Keynesian, Paulites, Von Mises, ... or even Austrian if it meant getting US-Treasury $$$ deposited in their accounts. Today 80% of the USA embraces ZION-ISM whether they know it or not, ... just that nobody in the MSM has the balls to give the USA Police State the real intellectual name for the 'fuck'.
IMHO -ism's in the USA dont' mean SHIT, follow the money. Follow the dead body's, folow the stolen real estate.
[ Keynes was a big supporter of the Zionist movement in its early stages; ERGO KEYNES is just ZIONISM, if your in the tribe you know this shit, if your outside the tribe then you think 'Keynes' means something 'intelletual', its doesn't its just another world for global-slavery. ]
I'd just about kill for a good block of hash
1999 went to Karakoram mts in N. Pakistan
trekked up the Baltaro glacier for a month
K2, Gasherbaum, Broad peak., many 8000 mt peaks
amazing country, the Balti people very hospitable
bought a 100 gr block of hash for 20 $
had the gold Taliban seal on it ..
black on the outside , green in the middle
was all i could do to smoke all of it .in a month...
came home boot tired, with a smile on my face..
This guy must be real fun at parties.
@Iocosus
According to media reports, he's the toast of Bangkok's nightlife.
I don't see you guys rating
The kind of mate I'm contemplating
I'd let you watch I would invite you
But the queens wee use would not excite you
So you'd better go back to your bars
your temples
your massage parlours
One night in Bankok and the worlds's your oyster
The bars are temples but the pearls ain't free
You'll find a god in every golden cloister
A little flesh a little history
I can feel an angel sliding up to me
One night in Bankok makes a hard man humble
Not much between despair and ecstasy
One night in Bankok an the tough guys tumble
Can't bee to careful with your comapny
I can feel a devil walking next to me
Thought he lived in Chiang Mai, several hundred miles north of Bangkok.
He does, but don't stop them. They are on a roll.
He must be great at parties! He delivers his gloomy outlook while a hash-induced smile beams out from his face, as though laughing at the silly hubris and folly of all of mankind. The guy is a riot!
Yup, hell of an entertainer, Faber. And even those who don't like 'em listen to his every word. Carried the baton from Kurt Richebacher, Nicholas Deak, Julian Simon, Howard Ruff and others who foresaw this debacle we are presently experiencing, decades ago.
I miss Lou Rukeyser. Give me that smiling Frankenstein mug over Faber's Dracula drawl any day.
Locosus...That's what the debt super cycle (the last 50 - 60 years) and its ever mounting dependency accoutrements have been...a worldwide party.
Locosus...That's what the debt super cycle (the last 50 - 60 years) and its ever mounting dependency accoutrements have been...a worldwide party.
Ask him before you travel to Thailand! He has the price list ..
Swaaaaaaaadiiiiii
Boom in Ukranian hookers in Sochi for the next 2 weeks
i think "they" planned the market crash for Sochi.....so they can blame sochi.....i would not want to be in or near sochi if this is the case.
Go easy on the hookers
Most barely escaped DAVOS with their lives
You've got it wrong, its not Sochi that's to blame, it's the winter in Sochi that's to blame.
MMMMMMMM, Ukranian Hookers!
I think Marc 'will be right' far sooner than most want to accept. World markets sputtering out, so is everyone ready for the next 9-11?
4-11 ????
Too cold to do 2-11.
Someone beat them to 3-11.
Yeah, probably 4-11 this time.
Now that cannabis is legal I'm thinking 4/20.
Hitler's birthday??
Party on dude!!
419.99 baby
If it's in April, it's 4-19.
I guess faber did not know that you can buy bonds and sell them prior to maturity.
That's not what he said...read again...bonds for a trade.
fair enough. but i will pass on short term advice from faber.
edit- alright I may as well just say it. Faber's predictions and more specifically his timing has continued to be fucking awful. Lucky for him he makes his money selling subscriptions. He says that the next 3-6 months treasuries will be a better place to be than equities. I say bullshit. I take SPY over the 10yr treasury, 3 months, or 6.
Reading this I am reminded of the metaphorical bubble popping. I also think about an old Paul Newman movie (can't remember the name) where they played a game as to who could burn the most cigarette holes in a paper napkin before the center would fall. Kinda of a lounge version of russian roulette.
"Metropolitan" a Whit Stillman classic of the indie film genre, but no Paul Newman in the cast.
Must....buy moar.....bawnds.....
But a certain type of Australian sheeple investor wants to retire a millionaire by purchasing 10 houses in 10 years on highly leveraged adjustable rate mortgage.
They don't need much income or even a business plan to do this, because the nice man at the wealth seminar is only a phone call away. Also the Aussie fed.gov has their back, as it will stimulate the market some more, thus eliminating all downside risk.
House prices never drop in Australia you know...
Did Carlton Sheets move down under ?
I think he's refering to Ostrarlya.
(funny thing is MS Word's spell checker actually correctly recognised that, and offered to correct it for me ... lol ... just lol)
Stopped clock is right twice a day...
... but an unflushed turd is never welcome.
And what kind of clock is right all day every day?
The FaberClock, that's what.
Without watching or reading let me guess.... The stock market is over valued and will decline by 20% at some time. Buy treasuries and gold. The central planners will print print print...then we will go to war. Am I right? Don't get me wrong I agree with in theory and like Marc Faber, but. TPTB have shown they can keep this up far longer than we imagined.
Its all baked into the cake Doc.
Just a matter of when ?
No harm being reminded by Faber. Even starchy John Williams is saying it.
He just doesn't get the publicity ,could you see him partying on Pat Pong Rd.
This year is highly probable IMO.
I'm not being critical of Marc, I just believe that after all we have seen things won't spin apart until TPTB are ready for them to.
But that is the question: Are they ready?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-19/what-do-insiders-know-you-dont
I've been reading Zero Hedge for four years now, and we've seen the same phenomenon every year. I've come to the conclusion that the insiders expect something bad themselves, however they don't know what's going to come either so they just sell.
The insiders in the west do not control the east and that is the risk. With the BRICS in play, the western banking cartels no longer hold all the cards. The turbulence in the Middle East only exascerbates global strategies. For lack of a better term, it's all a house of cards just waiting for a black swan.
How long can the insiders sell before they have to buy again?
Or are they selling what they get paid [in shares] as quickly as possible every year.
I have to agree with you, it seems like they [insiders] have been bears for a long time...
The insiders are doing more than buy/sell. They're writing covered calls, writing puts, canceling trades (yours too), emptying accounts (not always their own) and watching everything (illegally).
I agree Doc
I think the leaders can pull this off for longer then many might think they aren't worried about the people's pain only their own. The majority of the nations do not trust China and China is dependent upon us not the other way around. The politicians love the power having the reserve currency brings them (and lining their own pocketbooks stocks/donations). Other world leaders get their cut so what would they replace the dollar with in the meantime? Nothing's really changed either since Stalin foiled the New World Order.
I agree with him on EM debt....the so called new middle class is up to their eyeballs in it..new apartments and cars for everyone....and boy did they buy when they thought the buying was good...
His most relevant point to me is that China is in a slow down trend which is in agreement with others. With global contraction it would be nice to hear what he says today about gold and if his opinion has changed a little or not.
In the comedy "Flip that house":
In some places in NJ, houses bought for 245,000 last year are being offered 549,000 a moth after that and currently ( a year after that) 460,00. The house requires 11,000 in local tax per year (2012) that has risen 100% for the past 6 years.
May be someone will bite the dust. It seems that owning a physical asset that can be taxed, will not be a smart thing for the next one or two decades, unless of course, one can make money out of it and cover that constantly growing expense.
Please edit for spelling and digits!
Ironically, your post automatically prevented him from doing so.
haha true
Andrew could remove his post, thereby allowing the edit, Ironically, your post automatically prevented him from doing so .
/this could go on Forever. Its turtles all the way down man !!!
Actually, Hulk, there is no way to completely remove a post here on ZH, short of having Tyler/s doing it himself/themselves.
This is the only thing I find most irritating about ZH. Reviewing a post only to discover a typo, misspelled word or a grammatical error and someone innocently responded to it. Most frustrating because I am a terrible typist and my iPad corrects my gibberish into nonsensical word salad. And then, of course, I'm called away to run a stat so I post before a careful proof read. Some probably think I've contracted Taenia solium and it's migrated to my brain. Well, I guess patient care is more important than proper English. Ok, I guess that will get me a down vote. ;-)
Miffed;-)
was looking at the houses for $1 across the country, and the article makes the point, before you buy realize that you're in a bad neighborhood, you have to live there a certain number of years, and taxes will quickly exceed the real value of the home (assuming its more than $1, and you must make certain repairs just to make the house habitable) ultimately there may be a cash for clunkers program for housing. and (with TV) you can make money that way too, lumber is expensive, i imagine buyers will be picking up $1 homes and systematically stripping them. demo can cost a lot too, and leave the vacant lot for the weeds or let it go for taxes. as i describe it it sounds like a entrepreneural form of gentrification, which is where this is headed, at least in desirable areas where there are some services, (not in the midwest probably)
How long is a moth in time?
How much is 460,00? Is it like a buck three eighty or a puzzle like that?
I believe that there are 120,000 moths in a millenipede.
I would NOT use UST and 'quality' in the same sentence.
Altucher 20,000!
Facts of life
Deferring responsibility doesn’t work, but the majority is easily persuaded. Extortion of the minority, denial, has been the path to death for every majority in History. Empires are built to be destroyed accordingly.
RE price inflation is not wealth.
Tourism is not an economy.
Public Works is not a business.
Healthcare does not deliver health.
Public schools do not educate.
The State does not own natural resources.
The majority, regardless of ism created for the purpose, can only busy itself seeking consensus, leaving it and those fighting it in the past, attempting to control the minority moving forward. That minority provides for the majority by choice, until it doesn’t, which is the nature of a productive distribution, distillation.
Live within the means provided, do something productive yourself, or perish, when the minority moving forward drops the weight of History on the majority, again. The problem solution is not external. Life is life wherever you go. It’s about the company you keep on the journey.
Global climate change is a function of self-destructive international trade, hunting down labor globally with Family Law to exploit it, building an economy on a foundation of sand. Empire accountants simply fill in actuarial numbers to suit empire bias, lawyers file bankruptcy, and bankers print, exactly what the majority pays them to do, promising their children as payment for more of the same, irresponsible consumption with credit positive feedback.
Everyone is not doing it, and the majority cannot bill labor, a marriage between a man and a woman subject to God, without destroying itself. Vote all you want. Labor doesn’t operate as a representative democracy internally; its actions are not subject to majority vote. Labor is a democracy of ideas, where the idea holder counts. Time accordingly.
The majority runs downhill from responsibility, “Faith [the investment cycle] is evidence of that not seen {by the majority],” subjecting itself to tyranny every time. Check your constitution again. It’s an at-will contract, which exists only between the agreeing parties to the contract. Replacing the parties to the contract with State Family Law dissolves the contract relative to those replaced. That’s why they call it dissolution.
$50Trillion, and the container ships are doing what? Fracking as a bridge to the future?
Thanks, but the majority can keep its slave ship routine. Labor will build a bridge to the future for its own children, like it always does. Empire have been built to be destroyed accordingly, city on top of city on top of city, for over 5000 years. The majority promises itself slaves in the future, and so becomes a slave to the past. From and to dust, the worm devours itself.
To understand labor, you have to understand how weather reshuffles the DNA deck, and how empire delays recognition to the end of control. Labor pits the empire majority pursuing extortion against the planet, leveraging gravity.
Women are made to have children, the future. The path of DNA is the future, integral. Property, income and jobs are the derivative, the past. Women breed males accordingly. Men position women with mobility, breeding women accordingly.
If you are a woman and you don’t like the pool of males to choose from in your community, look at the short term decisions other females are making to acquire property, income and jobs. The feedback mechanism works the same for men. Your own throw you under the bus, if you let them.
Due to the gravitational effect on women, bearing children, a man must be able to move a community when the weather reshuffles the environment. The empire majority builds an artificially controlled environment, entering a positive feedback loop with climate variability. Each iteration of empire creates a ‘better’ artificial world, delay, within which the best is enemy of better.
The empire is a collection of isms, collecting single people that do not accept their gender responsibilities in artificial civil marriage, to the end of collecting property, income and jobs, or whatever else the empire establishes control around. Whoever is willing to pay the tax tribute, and manage the slave turnover accordingly, gets the State paper granting right to extortion, under conditions of artificial scarcity.
Placing women in the workforce is not a problem, but when the empire starts talking about paying women equally to do what men do best, and vice versa, it courts disaster, in a chain of growing artificial crises, creating its own demand. The empire simply cannot beat a community of nuclear families, men and women positioned to grow the local economy, and without that community, the majority dependent upon the food chain cannot exist.
The weather reshuffles the environment to protect you, if you employ it. You want your spouse to be paid to produce in a feedback loop with nature. You want inequality. Those that do not provide for their spouse get empire, and their genes go back to the churn pool. Monogamous marriage cannot be beat over the long term because men and women are doing what they do best.
The empire makes it unlawful to pay a family man more despite a much larger multiplier effect in the form of durable goods orders ensuring local business growth, because the practice shrinks the empire. The empire enforces international trade because that is the only way it can divide and conquer communities. GDP measures empire control, over itself; that’s it. Labor doesn’t use empire money as a measuring stick.
Ultimately, History tells you to spend 10% of your time paying the majority's bill for stupidity, and 24 hrs/wk is more than enough if both sexes want to participate equally, deferring responsibility in busy work as the counterweight. Regardless of ism compilation, all majorities reward consumption as production, driving an artificial demographic boom, until production collapses, causing a demographic bust. Politicians just rearrange chairs on the Titanic, which is what you are observing in the energy sector.
Life is a walk of patience with adversity, which demands adaptation to find your self. Focus on adaptation. If you find yourself in economic slavery, don't repeat the choice, by failing to discount the majority's negative opinion of your value. Leave the empire behind to bid against itself, and you will be paid with interest and penalties accordingly.
The Internet is a surplus bridge upon which the empire is imploding, because it is two generations behind the curve. One majority after another has tried and failed to replace marriage for over 5000 years, but keep trying. Gravity serves a purpose.
Life is not a competition with others. Your only competition is your better self. Fear is not an economy. If you make decisions on the basis of fear, the best you can do is be last to lose. If you appreciate what you are given, you will be given more. You are an investment. Act accordingly.
Communication, like everything else, is a transmission mechanism. A manual beats an automatic every time, if you have a driver. The majority rules out itself, with false assumptions serving as the foundation of ineffective habits. Humanity is not the center of the universe.
The trick, of course, is to employ those working to avoid work as the counterweight, which requires at least three elevators, and the universe gives you one. Automation has replaced imagination, replacing America with a cheap replica, made in China. That's not going to get you anywhere you want to go.
If you want to go to the future, pay your children to take you there, with love, not control. Parents help children learn, to think for themselves. Education is a purely community interest, dependent entirely upon parents. Government does not run backwards by accident. Public education becomes a zoo for revolving isms with majority rule, tyranny.
Earick Elevation, the company you keep
Wiring from anywhere, to anywhere
Something was waiting to come out for awhile, it seems.
(Some relevent points, though.)
A new waffle bot perhaps?