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The Most Important Chart To Consider Before Tomorrow's ADP Jobs Report
We are sure that tomorrow's ADP report will be taken as either, a) proof positive that December's miss in NFP was a weather-related artifice hiding the true awesomeness of the US recovery (and this no un-taper); or b) the most recent macro data is indeed weak and job creation have peaked for this cycle (despite a few trillion in balance sheet expansion by the Fed). However, as the following chart shows, any surprise beat (or miss) in ADP is entirely useless as a predictor of payroll surprises...
h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer
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Hahaha. Good one.
Nobody mentions the 800 pound gorilla. We're an offshored economy. And those manufacturing jobs aren't coming back. Translation? We're a dying empire--killed by the captains of industry. Word to your mother.
Personally ... I disagree. Cost of transportation is becoming an issue. And ... the wage difference isn't as great as it used to be. There may be niches of manufacturing that do come back.
Assuming we can stop this idiotic rush to the bottom
And all the economists yelled in unison: BULLSEYE!
It's worthless because the government numbers are garbage.
Broadening the scatter chart will widen throwing darts at more MSM bullshit
Why is it called a 'jobs' report'? It should be called 'the dumbasses who still pay taxes' report.
I would get s new shotgun..that one is toast
They just have the wrong choke installed. That's all. It's NOT a random-number generator. No. Certainly couldn't be that.
Just a choke issue....
That looks like a Rorschach Test.
<I see dead people.>
Oh, oh, oh...Mr. Carter.....oh, you said Rorschach...:-)
No, it's the constellation Yellen Major, only visible in the northern sky at certain times of the year, typically around Fed meetings. If you squint a little you can see Janet Yellen squatting and crapping on the country.
Best character ever in The Watchmen.
If you connect the dots, you can make a cat with a bow-tie.
A story on ADP's rise to .gov employment monitor is in order.
Their hand-punch/FOB/soon to be retinal scan systems are pretty creepy.
Please forgive me if I am missing something obvious, and enlighten me. If we are plotting suprises (ie being wrong) what can I learn from the fact that the two bodies that produce the numbers were mistaken in different ways? In fact if one reported correctly and the other incorrectly this would make the scatterplot look as though neither knew what the hell they were doing as it would throw the plot points out of the center? What am I supposed to learn here? I understand the claim and agree with it but am unclear how this chart proves it. Thank you in advance for your patience.
Plot your boating accidents carefully.
THAT is the lesson.
I dare you to accidentally plot an accidental accident chart and then proactivly leverage your synergies on a forward looking basis. I dare you....
P.S. Don't cross the streams.
That is some SIX-SIGMA 9001 shit right there!
Sun-Tzu and Starbucks! And Shit!
Coffee is for closers.
One of the major Cognitive Dissonances of Zero Hedge and many of us here in the comment section (myself included) is that we claim the data is manipulated and wrong......then we point to the data to prove whatever point we are making at the moment.
<Personally I like my cake and to eat it too.>
You aren't supposed to point stuff like that out.
Thank you for saying "many" and not "all."
I actually started to type "some" and changed it to "many" after I included me, myself and I. :)
<Three's a crowd in my mind.>
Cognitive crowd-sourcing.
Or surfing.
I had no idea you were a Major....
It looks like somebody needs to spend a little more time at the range.
Plotting to monetize debt, even a cat can figure it out.
Colonel Meow on Facebook http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgKD-aSsn9USo tomorrow when the S&P is up 75 points on whatever the number is, will that be just slightly bullish or super mega bullish?
Ah, I see your problem. Let me help you out....
If the S&P is DOWN 75 points, it would also be super mega bullish.
Repeat after me: "There has never been a better time to buy stocks."
Ok, great, that concludes our session for the week. Please pay the receptionist on your way out.
This is all very simple. By the next FOMC meeting in March, the FED would have tapered approximately 24% of it's asset purchases. So, the DJIA should roughly be at about 13,345 and the S&P should around 1400. This would be just perfect timing to untaper. Any questions?
Norma Ledesma - UP, UP AND AWAY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53CK1uCuqEA (2:24)
More unemployed figures raise new growth projections. When the customers jump ship, the JCP model will take effect. Watch these companies try to row the boat against direct water current. They lost support revenue base, customers have left in droves. Bilderburger [sic] delivered by PC venue to get cultural changes implemented. The threat, if you'd you don't comply. The kotex string will be pulled.
Looks just like the so-called Keynesian unemployment - inflation trade-off (Phillips Curve) data points - absolutely no correltation to be found at all. AT ALL
Looks like termites.
Is that a supporting beam?
Gonna get the bastards either way. TLT/TBT combo.
Fun, fun, fun, til daddy takes the trash truck away.
Hey man! Read it kcabwards.
I suggest inside out.
not a very good grouping on yer chart there Jose. maybe should've used a 12 guage @ 10 feet for better eye appeal. jus sayin. btw, fyi, i recently found out that the NSA can't track "green up arrows", but can home in on the "red down ones" in a nano second, or less. something to do with color spectrum. :) have a great day.
Gallups employment tracking poll has been badly eroding to 2011 levels. It typically leads the NFP.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/125639/Gallup-Daily-Workforce.aspx
"payroll surprise graph"
That's what the back of my dart target looks like after practicing.
So is someone at ADP throwing a dart for the number?
Lost your marbles chart? How do u read it? Mine is missing something.