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The Most Important Chart To Consider Before Tomorrow's ADP Jobs Report

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We are sure that tomorrow's ADP report will be taken as either, a) proof positive that December's miss in NFP was a weather-related artifice hiding the true awesomeness of the US recovery (and this no un-taper); or b) the most recent macro data is indeed weak and job creation have peaked for this cycle (despite a few trillion in balance sheet expansion by the Fed). However, as the following chart shows, any surprise beat (or miss) in ADP is entirely useless as a predictor of payroll surprises...

 

 

h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer

 

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Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:12 | 4402262 honestann
honestann's picture

Hahaha.  Good one.

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 23:00 | 4402575 The Dunce
The Dunce's picture

Nobody mentions the 800 pound gorilla.  We're an offshored economy.  And those manufacturing jobs aren't coming back.  Translation?  We're a dying empire--killed by the captains of industry.   Word to your mother.

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 23:45 | 4402712 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Personally ... I disagree.  Cost of transportation is becoming an issue.  And ... the wage difference isn't as great as it used to be.  There may be niches of manufacturing that do come back.

Assuming we can stop this idiotic rush to the bottom

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:13 | 4402268 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

And all the economists yelled in unison:  BULLSEYE!

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:13 | 4402272 kw2012
kw2012's picture

It's worthless because the government numbers are garbage.

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:18 | 4402288 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Broadening the scatter chart will widen throwing darts at more MSM bullshit

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:20 | 4402289 Occams_Chainsaw
Occams_Chainsaw's picture

Why is it called a 'jobs' report'?  It should be called 'the dumbasses who still pay taxes' report.

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:23 | 4402296 youngman
youngman's picture

I would get s new shotgun..that one is toast

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:25 | 4402306 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

They just have the wrong choke installed.  That's all.  It's NOT a random-number generator.  No.  Certainly couldn't be that.

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:25 | 4402309 Occams_Chainsaw
Occams_Chainsaw's picture

Just a choke issue....

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:23 | 4402300 Cognitive Dissonance
Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:27 | 4402312 lead salad
lead salad's picture

Oh, oh, oh...Mr. Carter.....oh, you said Rorschach...:-)

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:28 | 4402319 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

No, it's the constellation Yellen Major, only visible in the northern sky at certain times of the year, typically around Fed meetings.  If you squint a little you can see Janet Yellen squatting and crapping on the country.

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:30 | 4402320 Occams_Chainsaw
Occams_Chainsaw's picture

Best character ever in The Watchmen.

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:23 | 4402303 dsg2003gt
dsg2003gt's picture

If you connect the dots, you can make a cat with a bow-tie.

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:24 | 4402304 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

A story on ADP's rise to .gov employment monitor is in order.

Their hand-punch/FOB/soon to be retinal scan systems are pretty creepy.

 

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:25 | 4402311 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

Please forgive me if I am missing something obvious, and enlighten me.  If we are plotting suprises (ie being wrong) what can I learn from the fact that the two bodies that produce the numbers were mistaken in different ways? In fact if one reported correctly and the other incorrectly this would make the scatterplot look as though neither knew what the hell they were doing as it would throw the plot points out of the center? What am I supposed to learn here? I understand the claim and agree with it but am unclear how this chart proves it. Thank you in advance for your patience.

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:27 | 4402315 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Plot your boating accidents carefully.

THAT is the lesson.

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:34 | 4402330 Occams_Chainsaw
Occams_Chainsaw's picture

I dare you to accidentally plot an accidental accident chart and then proactivly leverage your synergies on a forward looking basis.  I dare you....

 

P.S. Don't cross the streams.

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 23:10 | 4402601 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

That is some SIX-SIGMA 9001 shit right there!

Sun-Tzu and Starbucks! And Shit!

Coffee is for closers.

 

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:36 | 4402337 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

One of the major Cognitive Dissonances of Zero Hedge and many of us here in the comment section (myself included) is that we claim the data is manipulated and wrong......then we point to the data to prove whatever point we are making at the moment.

<Personally I like my cake and to eat it too.>

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:51 | 4402391 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

You aren't supposed to point stuff like that out.

Thank you for saying "many" and not "all."

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:52 | 4402397 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I actually started to type "some" and changed it to "many" after I included me, myself and I.  :)

<Three's a crowd in my mind.>

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 23:12 | 4402602 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Cognitive crowd-sourcing.

Or surfing.

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 23:14 | 4402613 Hulk
Hulk's picture

I had no idea you were a Major....

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:34 | 4402335 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It looks like somebody needs to spend a little more time at the range.

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:38 | 4402352 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Plotting to monetize debt, even a cat can figure it out.

 

Colonel Meow on Facebook http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgKD-aSsn9U

 

 

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:41 | 4402364 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

So tomorrow when the S&P is up 75 points on whatever the number is,  will that be just slightly bullish or super mega bullish?

 

 

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:48 | 4402389 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Ah, I see your problem.  Let me help you out....

If the S&P is DOWN 75 points, it would also be super mega bullish.

Repeat after me:  "There has never been a better time to buy stocks."

Ok, great, that concludes our session for the week.  Please pay the receptionist on your way out.

 

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:52 | 4402393 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

This is all very simple. By the next FOMC meeting in March, the FED would have tapered approximately 24% of it's asset purchases. So, the DJIA should roughly be at about 13,345 and the S&P should around 1400. This would be just perfect timing to untaper. Any questions?

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 21:54 | 4402404 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Norma Ledesma - UP, UP AND AWAY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53CK1uCuqEA (2:24)

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 22:07 | 4402431 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

More unemployed figures raise new growth projections.  When the customers jump ship, the JCP model will take effect.  Watch these companies try to row the boat against direct water current. They lost support revenue base, customers have left in droves. Bilderburger [sic] delivered by PC venue to get cultural changes implemented. The threat,  if you'd you don't comply.  The kotex string will be pulled.  

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 22:09 | 4402437 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Looks just like the so-called Keynesian unemployment - inflation trade-off  (Phillips Curve) data points - absolutely no correltation to be found at all.  AT ALL

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 22:24 | 4402472 Onthebeach
Onthebeach's picture

Looks like termites.

Is that a supporting beam?

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 22:29 | 4402486 wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

Gonna get the bastards either way. TLT/TBT combo.

Fun, fun, fun, til daddy takes the trash truck away.

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 23:05 | 4402590 shankster
shankster's picture

Hey man! Read it kcabwards.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 01:32 | 4402958 A Dollar Short
A Dollar Short's picture

I suggest inside out.

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 23:19 | 4402621 sgorem
sgorem's picture

not a very good grouping on yer chart there Jose. maybe should've used a 12 guage @ 10 feet for better eye appeal. jus sayin. btw, fyi,  i recently found out that the NSA can't track "green up arrows", but can home in on the "red down ones" in a nano second, or less. something to do with color spectrum. :) have a great day.

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 23:25 | 4402637 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Gallups employment tracking poll has been badly eroding to 2011 levels. It typically leads the NFP.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/125639/Gallup-Daily-Workforce.aspx

Tue, 02/04/2014 - 23:49 | 4402730 yogibear
yogibear's picture

"payroll surprise graph"

That's what the back of my dart target looks like after practicing. 

So is someone at ADP throwing a dart for the number?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 05:18 | 4403143 Cdn1
Cdn1's picture

Lost your marbles chart?  How do u read it? Mine is missing something.

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