Treasury Bill Yields Are Surging As Debt-Ceiling X-Date Approaches

Tyler Durden's picture

UDPATE: At today's Treasury auction - 4-week bills yield 13bps, 52-week bills yield 11.5bps... 1.5bps inverted!

Whether Treasury Secretary Lew's words were meant to calm and chaosify the markets yesterday, his comments on the debt ceiling have sparked a notable sell-off in ultra-short-dated Treasury Bills. As we noted previously the 2/28 ish date appears to be the market's bogey for now with the yield more than tripling from 3bps to 11bps in the last 2 days. CDS on the USA has also risen notably in the last few days with the 5Y now trading inverted to the 1Y cost of protection once again.


Major jump in T-Bill yields in the last 2 days as Lew brings back memories of October...


And USA CDS is on the rise (and inverted) once again...


As we noted previously:

This is what the X-Date projection looks like depending on the best and worst cash in/out scenarios:



Charts: Bloomberg

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Clowns on Acid's picture

Were Jacob Lew's relatives at Jekyll Island?

max2205's picture

Blah blah blah....different date same story

eclectic syncretist's picture

And now our elected leaders can spend all their time debating on whether or not to have Janet Yellen punch a couple numbers on her computer.  That sounds real productive......Thanks congress.

Fish Gone Bad's picture

Yellen was the third choice.  Trial by fire.  Davos is over, now Yellen gets to be the whippin' boy.

Spungo's picture

Is this good or bad for my shares of Twitter?

Ham-bone's picture

Funny, according to Treasury "debt to Penny" report, US has already created $550 B in new debt in this budget year since Oct 1, 13.  Total new debt in this budget year will almost surely be over $1 T.  And yet, CBO today states 2014 budget deficit will only be $514 B...the non-GAAP accounting is a real blessing to Mr. Lew. 

Somehow, $300 B in "new debt" belongs to neither last years or this years deficit...but is definitely added to national debt.

This was the money spent during the '13 debt ceiling fiasco, borrowed from intra-gov, then repaid after Oct 1 in the '14 budget.  So eiher the '13 budget deficit was $300 B greater or the '14 budget is $550 B...amazing the acct'ing fraud so in your face.

ArkansasAngie's picture

When they actually default, let me know.  The GOP will not actually do nothing.  We know what the Dem's will do.  

And to fall for the scare is stupid.

We are not there yet.  I wish we were.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Running out of shells for the shell game motherfuckers?

101 years and counting's picture

default.  crash stocks.  crush 401ks and pensions now that ben got every small fry in.  dems blame pubs and vice verse. money shoots UP THE LADDER.  another successful bubble blown and popped. 

Dr. Engali's picture

There is no way they goof around, and potentially delay tax returns in an 'election' year. They may even bi-pass the pretend bluffing. The debt ceiling will be raised and .gov will keep on spending.


By the way, if you are a gun owner you should be thrown into a concentration camp and shot:

Spastica Rex's picture

Doc -

That video is mildly amusing, but that guy could be asking any question and mumbling anything, and stupid, distracted, sugar-addled, dis-educated Americans would sign the clipboard.

That is what is terrifying to me.

Dr. Engali's picture

Yeah that's what scares me most too. The majority of people don't do any critical thinking... it hurts too much.

DetectiveStern's picture

Schools don't teach people how to think. The powers that be realised this was a bad idea a long time ago.

Colonel Klink's picture

Commiefornia and the libtards will be the first in my sights and first to be refused assistance if things go bad.

czarangelus's picture

I'm so sick of all this California bashing from flyover trash. Guess what? This is the most populous state. We have libtards, Chinese immigrants, gun toting survivalists, Latino day laborers, rich white Republicans, Hollywood communistas, hillbillies, oil prospectors, hippies, electrican engineers who believe in Wicca, and pretty much everything else. Every race, religion, ideology, and identity on the planet is well represented here. Guess what? Our government sucks. Does your government somehow not?

Colonel Klink's picture

Difference is we don't have overbearing bullshit regulations in EVERYTHING about your life.  Autotomobile referees to scrutinize everything about your car.  Warnings on everything/building about the potential of cancer causing substances to the point of being batshit crazy.  Overbearing state and unconstitutional gun regulations too.  And also two of the most toxic exports ever to come out of Commiefornia, Pelosi and Boxer.

Enjoy your irradiated shithole state.  I politely say no thanks.

And for the record, I'm not in flyover country.  TYVM!

LosOsos's picture

Again, these are comments on our government not the people. Are there millions of dumbasses that have moved here and voted for this shit? Of course. However, there's also many families who have been here for a hundred years, live off the land, work hard to increase the wealth of their communities, and have strong libertarian leanings (i.e. the State of Jefferson).

So please drop the broad brush of characterization and recognize that there are many of your brothers in arms here in california in the fight for freedom that haven't been scared off and moved just because we have some sociopath statists in office (sounds a lot like the good 'ol USA doesn't it?). And trust me, however irked you are about the policies here I am pissed ten times over as I have to live with it!

El Vaquero's picture

Then do something about those policies.  The last round of gun control debates in my state resulted in people walking into the capitol building armed and standing outside of the front door with ARs.  No threats were made, but it did send a message of "We're here.  Don't fuck with us."  And that was over background checks. 

Colonel Klink's picture

My condolences on the loss of your freedoms.  There's a fight comin'.

Neo's picture

Although in general you may be correct about them signing anything, I think you would find that if the question involved impeaching Obama, Pelosi, Reid, or attacking a subject they percieve as important, you would find the results to be quite different.

The guy with the clipboard always asks liberty or constitution related questions to showcase these people's (the ones that we get to see in the videos) indiference to those subjects. Change the subject to one which the liberal mind is trained to protect and you'll find the results will differ greatly.

We have all been conditioned to catch certain words or subjects and react to those based on our biases.

How many Gun owners do you think signed the petition? How many people who have been directly protected by a gun and gun owner, signed it?

We have lived in a time of great (borrowed) prosperity, that gives us the luxury (illusion really) of not having to worry about our safety directly, which has resulted in this:



dcj98gst's picture

Good luck getting your tax return without a wait.  Gov is out of money.

Winston Churchill's picture

Why do you think they delayed first filing day until Feb. 1st ?

Evil, not stupid.

XitSam's picture

OT: Wasn't there a Feb 1 China debt crunch deadline?  Didn't happen? Did I miss something?

Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Chinese New Year's party is still roaring. Wait until the peasants come back to shuttered factories and office buildings.

samsara's picture

Looking at that last graph reminded me of this article this morning......


Elite Insider Predicted Massive Crash in 2012: “Very Large Probability… Around March 4, 2014?


Grady Means is a former advisor to Vice President Nelson Rockefeller, a former economist at the U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare, and has managed multi-billion dollar firms over his career. Back in October of 2012 Means penned a commentary and analysis for the Washington Times in which he noted that “America’s fall will take global economies with it.”

But he didn’t stop there. Means gave us a target date.

There is a very large probability that the real end of the world will occur around March 4, 2014.

10mm's picture

That time frame is in line with DHS insider Rosebud


yogibear's picture

The GOP will give a dog and pony show, approve raising it and spending and increasing the debt limit continues until the next debt ceiling is hit.

Make Obama and Jack Lew happy. Raise the debt ceiling to $50 trillion.

Nobody seems to care anymore until there is a currency crisis and the country is forced to take action.