• Sprott Money
    05/26/2016 - 05:58
    How many “emergency” “secret” meetings do the central planners around the world need to have before the citizens of the respective countries begin to fully understand and take notice that something...

About That 0.397994999 Service Worker: Why Does ADP Goalseek Their "Data"?

Tyler Durden's picture


A funny thing was found when scouring through the provided ADP excel source data (excel link here) which is used to backfill into the jobs data: nothing less than proof that ADP is goalseeking their final payrolls number.

Exhibit A:

As can be seen in screenshot of the ADP excel sheet, cell J157, which is supposed to represent the 160K service workers added in January, is in reality 159.561397994999, or somehow ADP, which is supposed to be able to poll specific workers with granularity to the individual worker level, saw the added "benefit" of 159,561 round number workers, and an additional .397994999 worker. This amounts to about one arm and half a leg.

The same can be seen in the next door neighbor cell, which indicates that 15,832 "round number" goods workers were added, and then added an additional 0.756476997 worker, or roughly two legs and one arm.

What does this mean? Simple - instead of actually using definitive numbers, ADP is goalseeking the final result based on a predetermined final outcome it wants to hit, and then varies for the growth rate or the monthly addition variable.

Our question is: why does ADP do this if it has any hopes of being credible (when we already know is merely mimics the NFP data with a one month lag), and in order to salvage some credibility, when will ADP finally start providing not seasonally adjusted data like the BLS' Nonfarm payrolls report?

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Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:29 | 4403689 monopoly
monopoly's picture

What an amazing site we have here all. The "truth". 

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:31 | 4403701 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

Mini-me just got a job.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:39 | 4403746 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



I suppose he gets a real 40 four/week job cause he's short or something.


When the hell do I get my exception?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:52 | 4403810 Steve in Greensboro
Steve in Greensboro's picture

"Now this quarter of a man he got fired,

the next damn day he got hired.

The only thing wrong with this plan

is he only makes a quarter cause he's quarter of man"

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:55 | 4403826 IBelieveInMagic
IBelieveInMagic's picture

Being charitably inclined, I am wondering if this indicative of part time workers?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:58 | 4403839 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

So it's down to this, I guess.  Quibbling over the number 4 digits past the decimal.  I have more serious concerns about the 3 digits in front of the decimal.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 12:06 | 4404150 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

IMHO the point here is that rather than counting how many beans go into the chili by counting them dry before the chili is even made, they are making inferences on the bean count by assessing the flavor balance of sour cream to sweetness, or some other highly obtuse, remotely tangential, fakahkda (sp.), theoretical, fuzzy math-addled bullshit statement of quarter-truths that will keep their paychecks rolling in and rolling out.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 12:35 | 4404268 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

That is a fine analogy re. how Washington, D.C. bureaucrats operate.  However, many of us in Texas believe real chili doesn't have beans.  ;->


Wed, 02/05/2014 - 20:16 | 4406161 Spigot
Spigot's picture

Actually, what you have just outlined is EXACTLY how it's done in DC. The top dog tells his subordinates "get me this number". The subordinates each then go to their sub-subordinates and say "get me this number"...all the way down to the guy counting paperclips and rubber bands and red swingline staplers in the supply closet.

And people used to say the Kremlin was a mystery machine...ha!

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 12:05 | 4404154 redpill
redpill's picture

Does anyone really pay attention to ADP anymore?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:42 | 4403771 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

An organisation that can measure the labour market to the nearest 1/billionth of a worker?


Wow. What a time to be alive.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:51 | 4403801 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

WOW, Ben fixed that gold spike in a hurry - These people are truly the scum of the earth.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:57 | 4403823 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Ben's out the door. Yellen is your new master.


And hopefully the doorknob reamed him a new a$$hole on the way out.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:48 | 4403785 USA USA
USA USA's picture

Answer to question:


Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:33 | 4403704 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture


Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:42 | 4403755 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

if anything is presented to me on a spreadsheet, i do not look at it. a spreadsheet is the sign of a simple mind.  math is a concept and easy to communicate.   if you can't communicate the math easily, you don't understand it.

(i do look a charts and spreadsheets for trends/coorelations as a tool)

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:59 | 4403838 What is The Hedge
What is The Hedge's picture

So, derek, if someone gives you a report, you don't ask for the underlying numbers? You don't ask the question, how did you get to this final number? Not wanting to examine the underlying figures is a sign of a lazy mind.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:54 | 4405041 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

I use a spreadsheet to compute/keep track of income taxes.  They do have their uses.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:42 | 4403762 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Amerikka has always been at war with Canadianada

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 20:19 | 4406166 Spigot
Spigot's picture

... that would be "Spreadshit cell" ... I know it seems like a small difference, but it makes all the difference in the world.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:32 | 4403708 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture



It's not goal-seeking; it's drunk monkeys shooting at a paper target...


Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:43 | 4403770 KnightTakesKing
KnightTakesKing's picture

More like a chimp with an AK-47.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 11:29 | 4403961 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Release the monkey's!!!

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:45 | 4403775 BandGap
BandGap's picture

I seek goals, too. What's wrong with that? These people probably got big bonuses for their highly prized math skills.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:47 | 4403779 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Can I get an Amen!  One of my favorite pasttimes.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 11:23 | 4403942 The Dunce
The Dunce's picture

All the numbers are a bunch of bullshit.  Enough said.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 11:30 | 4403964 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

So much of our society is just lies. If Truth rests in your heart, count yourself among the blessed few.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:30 | 4403692 l.kimbot
l.kimbot's picture


Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:30 | 4403693 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Maybe they are counting midgets.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:33 | 4403715 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

That is the SEC's job.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:59 | 4403842 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

Only if he typed an extra "o".

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:32 | 4403716 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Cut the 'hate speech'! Vertically challenged is the term I believe.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:38 | 4403749 pods
pods's picture

I was always partial to dwarf.  As in dwarfism, the proper way to describe a midget.

Or maybe it was because in AD&D and fantasy gaming, dwarves tended to be fascinated with mining, gems and precious metals.



Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:42 | 4403772 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

They are breeding a dwarf,

But they aren't done yet.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:59 | 4403837 BandGap
BandGap's picture

She had gray-green skin, a doll with a pin

I told her she was all right, but I couldn't come in.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 11:00 | 4403843 jon dough
jon dough's picture

UR, BG...


FZ = +1

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:54 | 4403788 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I was always partial towards the dark elves myself. We started playing way back when they came out with the first modules in th seventies. We kept that game going for a good twenty years. Then off and on for several more years before it finally petered out.Every once in a while I'll get a phone call from one of the group wanting to get together and play.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 11:04 | 4403849 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture


(OK, I played, too way back when.  But 20 years you kept a game going??  Holy cow!  Usually we had people quit the instant their favorite character got killed.)

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 11:05 | 4403869 pods
pods's picture

<fumbles around for the DM guide>

Guilty as well.  And the funny thing was, none of us committed suicide or sacrificed a virgin.


Wed, 02/05/2014 - 11:06 | 4403880 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Yet, pods.  YET.

We still have our eye on you.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 11:04 | 4403876 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Hey I resemble that remark.

And yes we went to plenty of Star Trek conventions too ;->

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 12:09 | 4404167 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture


(19th level Monk with Quivering Palm + 23rd level Paladin in Full Plate, 18/100)

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 12:48 | 4404299 DontGive
DontGive's picture

I second that!


<While secretly thinking of all the days down the drain spent on Evercrack>

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:41 | 4403754 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Hey, we are talking of people who play "dwarf-tossing" during lunch breaks, so it is more than appropriate to mention the corresponding speech. Fuck "political correctness" - that is just meant to let the words of truth vanish forever - and the thoughts with 'em!

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:42 | 4403763 superflex
superflex's picture

Yeah, and you cant call the handicapped handicapped unless you are a handicapped parking sign.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:33 | 4403723 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Nice... :-)

Meanwhile it is clear that we are playing in the theater of the AB-surd.

I had a thought that warmed the cockles of my heart, thought fellow ZHers would appreciate it:

Looking back at the moment global de-coupling actually occured will be a really intense feeling, so much energy invested into it, all exploding at that moment. And it will be a moment, a shot fired across some bow.


Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:52 | 4403812 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Dats raciss

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:29 | 4403695 DavrosoftheDaleks
DavrosoftheDaleks's picture

Question, which is most real:

Santa Claus

Easter Bunny

ADP Jobs Number

China's GDP

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:53 | 4403820 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Something keeps crapping on my porch floor so I'm going it Easter Bunny.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:31 | 4403711 takeaction
takeaction's picture

This thing is going to crash and burn so hard...I can just feel the fed panic.  Gold and Silver shoot up, they smack it down.  The Stock Market starts to collapse and they "Buy".  This is a shit storm that they can not continue to fake for long.  Look at all of the numbers.  It is incredible.  

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