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ADP Plunges In January To 175K; Biggest Miss Since August; December Revised Lower: "Cold, Storms" Blamed

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Earlier today, we predicted with absolute accuracy what today's joke of an ADP print would be:

And sure enough, the January ADP print missed as we expected, printing at 175K vs the expected 185K, while the December 238K was revised lower to 227K, confirming that ADP is nothing but an NDP trend follower and an absolutely worthless and meaningless data point that does nothing to add relevant data to the economic picture.

For those who care, this was the biggest miss since August and the largest monthly drop since August 2012, and the weakest print since August as well.

 

Here is the actual monthly data. Spot the trend, or alternatively - when the snow started falling.

 

What is truly hilarious is that ADP thought nobody would notice that they revised November from 228K to 289K. We can only assume this was a typo.

The breakdown by sector:

 

So much for the manufacturing renaissance: after 5 months of increases, in January 12,000 mfg jobs were lost while the financial sector added 0 workers:

How ADP compares to NFP - as pointed out it is now merely a lagging indicator with zero predictive value:

 

Finally, for some humor, here is econohack Mark Zandi, explaining the weak number with - what else - winter weather in the winter:

"The U.S. private sector added 175,000 jobs in January, which is in line with the average monthly growth throughout 2013,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "Cold and stormy winter weather continued to weigh on the job numbers. Underlying job growth, abstracting from the weather, remains sturdy. Gains are broad based across industries and company sizes, the biggest exception being manufacturing, which shed jobs, but that is not expected to continue.”

Actually what shouldn't be expected to continue, is for anyone to pay any attention to this made up, worthless employment indicator, and yet people do...

 

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Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:34 | 4403450 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

How do I trade this info today?

Is bad news bullish or bearish?

I forgot my cheat sheet.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:35 | 4403461 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Add another random bullet hole to the scatter plot...

[Yen and PM's surging,,,]

 

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:38 | 4403475 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Just spin the wheel and ask Vanna for a vowel.  Have you ever noticed that you never see Merv Griffin and the bernank in the same room at the same time?  Just sayin'

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:59 | 4403568 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

Job Vortex.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:23 | 4403669 The Dunce
The Dunce's picture

I'm confused, too.  Bad job data means more stimulus.  So I'm guessing DOW at 30,000.  Word up.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:34 | 4403451 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

They should just put out a 500k number friday followed by CNBC anchors just screaming "DON'T WORRY BE HAPPY!!!!!!"

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:32 | 4403453 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

It's the snow. Who wants to work when they can go sledding?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:37 | 4403473 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Or SKIING in the Swiss Alps!

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:54 | 4403814 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Or in Chicago, on the way to work in the morning. I remember thirty years ago when my commodities broker walked to work in snowshoes; then because he was one of the early arrivals he got to be part of a chain of human door pullers and ice kickers trying to get the building open. Whee !. what fun.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:33 | 4403456 Sufiy
Sufiy's picture


Gold Goes Vertical On Weak ADP Report

 Weak ADP report sends Gold to breakout above $1270 this morning with high of $1273 now - the close above $1270 will start the major short squeeze fireworks.

 

http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/gold-goes-vertical-on-weak-adp-repor...

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:34 | 4403458 digitlman
digitlman's picture

160k low wage service sectors jobs.

 

#RECOVERY

#WINNING!

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:35 | 4403460 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

It was almost cringeworthy listening to CNBC try to spin the number in a positive light this morning.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 14:57 | 4404722 rabbitusvomitus
rabbitusvomitus's picture

Almost cringeworthy, I'd say definitely cringeworthy. Tired of that fuckhead "lies-man" constantly pimping the markets. No scruples AT ALL!  Anything to keep this charade going. 

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:39 | 4403469 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Shedding jobs is not expected to continue'....not expected by who, you rear view mirror eclownomists?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:20 | 4403663 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

I thought they said "shredding jobs".... time to clean the ears

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:37 | 4403471 Conflict of Interest
Conflict of Interest's picture

What?   No media-friendly infographic?  Was the graphic artist that designed it one of the job cuts?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:36 | 4403474 Deepskyy
Deepskyy's picture

Something something something weather... Something something something dips... Something something something Strength of the American worker.

 

Wash, Rinse, Repeat.  Publish on CNBC as positivity and let the Teleprompter show up in front of a group of soon to be out of work "green energy" wage slaves.  Cue the cheerleaders.

 

Just another glorious Wednesday here in Obama's America.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:23 | 4403671 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

please give credit where it's due....sometimes it is bush's fault

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:30 | 4403702 Deepskyy
Deepskyy's picture

After 6 years... its time to stop looking into the past and try to find a way out of this shit.

 

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:54 | 4403815 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

it doesn't make a difference who is the president.  obama and bush are just two flip sides of the same coin.

a president is basically a figurehead.  He proposes, congress disposes.  Republicans and Democrats are flip sides of the same sold out coin to the highest bidder.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:38 | 4403476 thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture

And look at gold go on the news! Whee!

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:43 | 4403492 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

But Mr Zandi there at Moody's said underbrush growth remains "sturdy."

Isn't that good?

Or is that bad?

BTW: Isn't Moody's one of the companies that rated the subprime AAA+?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:45 | 4403517 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

DAMN YOU SNOWWWWW!!

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:30 | 4403523 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

truly pathetic, as usual...but this Marxist, criminal, treasonous and fraudulent government along with their state-run propaganda so-called "media" will come out tell us we're all "Winning!"...that we just have to be patient.  That "Oh-Fuck-You-Who-Cares" is great for everyone and especially 30 million more illegal aliens who want our money and our country, and all us patriotic Americans just need to shut up and deal with it.

Look at that chart above:  +160,000 "service" providing jobs, i.e. McDonalds, etc. and -12,000 manufacturing

Yup...that's the continued recipie for disaster that's never going to go away until this whole country collapses.

Hey, I got an idear...let's print more of that fucking funny "money"!!!  Obviously, the Trillions and Trillions we've already printed and given away to banks and foreign countries has done wonders for us, right?  And isn't it even more obvious that "tapering" Billions in just one month is the whole cause of all our problems???  Riiiiiiiiigggggggggggggt????

Well, c'mon then Old Yellen...start hitting that CTRL-P, bitch!  You know you want to.  You know you've been waiting eagerly for that rush of power from smashing those keys and shitting Trillions outta your fat fucking ass, right bitch?  Well get to it!  That's the game, right? 

Print away...print it all away...that's the solution to all our problems, right?  Can't you all see it's working perfectly?

Well, it is working perfectly from the perspective of the elitist globalist NWO scum who are deliberately destroying America for their own evil ends.  They've bankrupted everything else and now they need to destroy America and wipe out our wealth, freedom, liberty, and sovereignty. 

They wanted slaves and now they've got us right where they want us.  This is a Catch 22 situation and there's nothing we can do except prepare by stacking that phyzz, food, and supplies, because nothing is going to change until this country burns in civil war or WWIII breaks out.  And then all we can do is fight to survive it and to win the day so that we can restart this country back to the original specs and imprison or kill all the Marxist traitors who worked so hard to destroy our Republic.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:52 | 4403545 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

KRUGMANNNNN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:58 | 4403572 B2u
B2u's picture

If you are no longer part of the workforce, BUT you shoveled snow....you will be counted as having a job.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:54 | 4403825 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

It's all due to global warming; it never snowed on the East Coast before in January. ?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:02 | 4404749 rabbitusvomitus
rabbitusvomitus's picture

Does using a snow blower count? 

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:01 | 4403581 grunk
grunk's picture

Dump Joe Kernen and replace him with Jim Cantore. 

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:10 | 4403617 starman
starman's picture

manufactoring minus 12000!  USA USA USA R.I.P!

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:12 | 4403622 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Well, frankly the inflation and GDP numbers are all fucked up and useless now, too. So there you go. Someone light a candle.

 

 

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:49 | 4403791 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

And next month, it will be because of the Super-Bowel.....

 

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:49 | 4403793 Ghostdog
Ghostdog's picture

The reality is the poor numbers are because of the mourning of the passing of Phillp Seymore Hoffman.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 11:01 | 4403854 autofixer
autofixer's picture

IF weather is a factor in job numbers, what does that say about unemployment insurance?  

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 11:54 | 4404103 tradewithdave
tradewithdave's picture

Shovel ready... correction... Snow Shovel Ready

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 12:03 | 4404135 Walt D.
Walt D.'s picture

Not enogh to keep up with population growth, even if true.

More and moer government stiatistics are using the the "Anglo Irish Bank bailout estimate" methodology.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 13:26 | 4404377 GCT
GCT's picture

I wonder what the report would look like if they took out all the people having to work a second job to just make ends meet.   First the weather and then those that retired will be the excuse.  Conbsruction in my area is either dead or the builder is hiring illegals to compete. 

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