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ADP Reaction - Bonds & Bullion Surge As Dead-Cat-Bounce Stock Bulls Purge

Tyler Durden's picture


Precious metals had begun to jump higher before the ADP data hit but once it did - and disappointed - gold and silver spiked (over $1,270 and $20 respectively). Equity markets kneejerk reaction was a spike higher which immediately faded into a crash to recent lows. Dow futures are testing 2014 lows - as are S&P 500 futures. 10Y Treasury yields touched 2.60%; Nikkei futures are once again testing 14,000 as USDJPY breaks below 101.

JPY is in charge as usual - and USDJPY broke 101 again...

But the reaction is clear...


Dow futures are testing 2014 lows...


Once again - as a gentle reminder - here is a chart showing how crucial this surprise in ADP is to Friday's NFP surprise...




Charts: Bloomberg and @Not_Jim_Cramer


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Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:35 | 4403470 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

$20  and $1270 breached!  Call in the monkeys!  Hand out the hammers!

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:38 | 4403482 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Can you buy hammers at CVS?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:42 | 4403490 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Give me liberty propped up by centralized force, the IRS, and an enormous bureaucracy or give me death

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:44 | 4403505 knukles
knukles's picture

This is watchu get when the Morgue and Goldilocks are net long shiny and the world realizes its bad out there

Long live the Ministry of Propaganda

Long live Central Planning

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:52 | 4403546 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Vive la Bernanke Vive la Yellen..........long live free money......down with gold

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:56 | 4403549 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Clearly we need tax credits to institute global warming!


This cold crap is killing the economy.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:00 | 4403577 Panem et Circus
Panem et Circus's picture

Hory Chit! Gold up 1% and Silver up 3%!!!

Wait, nevermind. Sorry false alarm. My ounces still haven't changed.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:04 | 4403596 negative rates
negative rates's picture

How far do you have to drop a dead cat before it will bounce?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:06 | 4403603 Stackers
Stackers's picture

Problem is if you drop it too far it just goes SPLAT

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:33 | 4403725 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture


My short DJIA, long gold trade of December 2013 is doing OK today.



Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:53 | 4403805 butchee
butchee's picture

100% retrace courtesy of a bunch of disengenous traders at JPM

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:44 | 4403512 fonestar
fonestar's picture

...meanwhile Bitcoin looks very stable and uneventful over at  Probably because nobody there gives a shit about what your government does or does not do.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:56 | 4403556 Mad Mohel
Mad Mohel's picture

You're being lulled into complacency boy. The war machine never sleeps.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:55 | 4403557 fonestar
fonestar's picture

I know... I know... sad isn't it?  The brave new world, one where you and your very, very important slave masters aren't really newsworthy?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:00 | 4403582 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Very disingenuous fonestar. By earlier action (as in last year) all this should have been pushing BTC well above it's $1,200 high.

It's stability as you are calling it may be a sign of some irrelevance except as a medium of exchange and not profit?



Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:22 | 4403661 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Bitcoin rallied hard during the first senate hearings, by the second senate hearings the markets figured out that these people need not have any attention given to them.  If Bitcoin would like to take some time off, even for a few months that is fine by me.  It is well deserving of the rest and relaxation.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:26 | 4403681 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

By the way, I do appreciate your intelligent pro-BTC trolling here. It is trolling, you agree?

But well done, if sometimes technically unsound on your end. 


Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:29 | 4403698 fonestar
fonestar's picture

What part of fonestar's trolling has been "technically unsound"?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:22 | 4403665 lordylord
lordylord's picture

Everyone is holding and sitting on their 1's and 0's waiting for the next unexplainable surge in price.  I can't imagine anyone would want to buy a bitcoin for $1000 when so many "mined"/bought them for practically free.  Nobody wants to buy goods/services with them and merchants don't want to hold them for more than a microsecond.  I'm not surprised it's stable...for now.   

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:25 | 4403678 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Uh, hate to break it to you guy but most of the people buying BTC are not doing it using "dollars".  In a lot of these local currencies BTC is already five figures.

It's not about the Benjamins it's about the Vlad.  Get with the times.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:26 | 4403680 lordylord
lordylord's picture

Five figures in Yen?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:29 | 4403690 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Five figures in Yen and in Roubles.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:33 | 4403726 lordylord
lordylord's picture

And it's 10 figures when converting to bits of string.   Obviously fonestar doesn't understand currency convertion ratios.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:37 | 4403743 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Who doesn't understand dipshit?  Because Bitcoin is vastly superior to all of these national currencies and can be played off each other, its ascension and hyperdeflation are assured.  Nobody cares if you or Zeroheads "get it" or not, but it is pretty funny to watch since you guys spent years mindlessly yammering about Gresham's Law, sound money, etc...

Your practicum?  You failed.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:49 | 4403795 lordylord
lordylord's picture

IF it's adopted by a MUCH larger population than it is now.  That is a BIG "if" considering that governments are not going to sit around while they lose power and control.   The guys converting bitcoin on silkroad aren't sitting pretty right now, are they?  The difference between gold and bitcoin?  The long hand of gov definitely reaches the internet, but can it reach around the 28" barrel of the man who won't take it in the ass anymore?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 11:19 | 4403926 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Governments around the world can't even define Bitcoin or most of the other technologies available, much less control them.  Your "government" and their currencies are just the latest victims of progress that drives back the foot that's slow.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 11:27 | 4403954 Double.Eagle.Gold
Double.Eagle.Gold's picture

<-- fu@k fonestar

<-- worship fonstar

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 11:30 | 4403976 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Do not worship fonestar.  Worship Satoshi. 

fonestar came in his name.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 11:36 | 4403997 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

fonestar, please stop spamming. the universe does not consist of you, Satoshi and Bitcoin. It's costing so much effort just ignoring your endless multiple replies

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 11:37 | 4404011 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Just as soon as some people here stop spamming their anachronistic dollar-gold paradigm.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:29 | 4403687 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Is that asshole satoshammy your twin brother on the other line?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:21 | 4403666 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Give fonestar Bitcoin and he will buy all those things.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:40 | 4403491 BandGap
BandGap's picture

No, but you can buy stuff that gets you hammered at CVS.

Monkeys shouldn't drink, BTW. It ruins their aim.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:48 | 4403527 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture



"Monkeys shouldn't drink, BTW. It ruins their aim."

Which explains the ADP "Surprise" scatterplot...


Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:42 | 4403498 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Give me liberty propped up by centralized force, the IRS, and an enormous bureaucracy or give me death

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:54 | 4403553 gwar5
gwar5's picture

No hammer, no soda, no candy bars for you!  Drugs and marijuana only!   


Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:16 | 4403636 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

The black helocopters have collected 2 of the only 3 ppl in USA that can make LSD. People, we are soooooooo fucQed

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:43 | 4403496 Dr. Kenneth Noi...
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater's picture

And the US session hammerdown in 3..  2..

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:42 | 4403499 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

you do know I'm blaming you if they do right?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:43 | 4403500 Mad Mohel
Mad Mohel's picture

One day all the monkies and all the hammers won't make a difference. Can you picture it? That glorious day when it will get away from them and they won't be able to stop it! Reminds me of something.

The world is full of giants. 
They have always been here, lumbering in the schoolyards, limping through the alleys.
We had to learn how to deal with them, how to overcome them.
We were small but fast, remember?
We were like a wind appearing out of nowhere.
We knew that being clever was more important than being the biggest kid in the neighborhood.
As long as we keep our heads down, as long as we work hard, 
trust what we feel in our guts, our hearts,
Then we're ready.
We wait until they get sleepy,
wait until they get so big they can barely move,
and then walk out of the shadows,
quietly walk out of the dark—and strike.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:45 | 4403518 Ulterior
Ulterior's picture

anybody else stoped reading this BS after second line?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:58 | 4403533 Mad Mohel
Mad Mohel's picture

Whatsamatta you don't like pomes in the mroning?

I didn't down ya, it's just someone else thought you were a fagget.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:00 | 4403578 knukles
knukles's picture

Sumbuddy go breaka hizzn fonestars kneez fur Chrizzagez

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 11:11 | 4403895 Ace Ventura
Ace Ventura's picture

Wait......wasn't that the Maserati commercial during the super bowl?  If so, it does seem like a universally applicable theme for the current times, eh?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:10 | 4403614 fooshorter
fooshorter's picture

I'vve havd an unfvortunate smvellting acccident!!


Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:24 | 4403679 The Dunce
The Dunce's picture

Gold smold.  I'm long on cat food and bullets.  Now that's living.  Bitches.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:32 | 4403718 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

New York wasnt havin any of that....

any more obvious....

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:38 | 4403483 Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

The Obozo recovery is here to stay. Forever.


Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:41 | 4403487 BandGap
BandGap's picture

When I think about it I touch myself.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:57 | 4403563 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Hello, Bronco's fan!

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:41 | 4403488 eurogold
eurogold's picture

And this is news ?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:41 | 4403489 Gypsyducks
Gypsyducks's picture

Watched Gold get hammered back below $1270, somehow i knew ZeroHedge had mentioned it in an article.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:45 | 4403506 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Its early yet.

He who panics first, panics best.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:56 | 4403555 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Well then, that's good, because I panicked 2000, It would seem being one step ahead makes you a genius, any more than two steps and you're a "kook" (a very happy, well prepared, and wealthy kook, but a kook nonetheless).

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:11 | 4403626 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Me also, but in 2007. Left the casino.

A year early, but WTF.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:42 | 4403502 Rainman
Rainman's picture

I just knew the deer would return. Another day of misery and woe for the pump monkeys.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:46 | 4403521 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

It's all about the Yen, and that mother's on coke.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:44 | 4403511 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Gold and silver surge? Unpossible. Unmanipulation, bitchez.  Wait for it  3... 2... 1


Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:50 | 4403534 youngman
youngman's picture

Wait until the Chinese come back to work next week.....

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:52 | 4403543 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

wow miracle futures are almost back to green, and the jpy is back over the 101 level. 


not manipulation to see here

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:58 | 4403570 forwardho
forwardho's picture

thismarketisrigged, Well in this case your screen name is all too sufficient.

Well chosen, and observed every day. ;)

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:53 | 4403548 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Of course, it is the close that counts. And we still have Friday's report to get past before possibly the all clear is sounded. But this is good. This is good. And I watched some main stream news last night for the first time in a long while. Diane Sawyer, Brian on NBC. Are we the only ones who talk about the debt, deficit and employment and the lack thereof?

They hardly mention the Middle east, Japan, China or anything real. Even surprised me. Will not make that mistake again.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:53 | 4403550 SilverIsMoney
SilverIsMoney's picture

Id love to think the system is finally going to crack but if theres one thing ive learned over the years its never underestimate the peoples complacency to a good can kicking... We'll untaper and all will be well.

This game only stops when people get so freaked out the central banks influence on the markets is overwhelmed by the fear of the people and the greed of the TBTF banks.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:00 | 4403585 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Being in agriculture, I can tell you that there is some real concern by these paper-pushing bankers and their political puppets.  The cost of many foods per ounce has more than doubled since 2008/2009.  The recent farm bill is very different from years before (could be good), but will make things more expensive yet again.  I believe that this fact alone may be what is forcing the hand of the Fed, but all the municipal bond defaults waiting in the wings may also have something to do with it too.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:56 | 4403554 madbraz
madbraz's picture

When is zerohedge going to mention the fact that we had for the first time ever over $100 billion in reverse repos (yesterday).  


I mean QE is always in the headline, but you have to talk about the fact that the "collateral provider in chief" - the FED, is providing over $100 billion in treasury collateral to primary dealers and money market funds, in exchange for garbage that they call "cash" for practically 100 cents on the dollar.


In our crazy world, the FED gives treasuries to primary dealers - who in turn may use these proceeds to short the same treasuries.  For the FED, treasuries are the enemy - safe haven is a killer of risk on.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:59 | 4403580 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

I don't think thats whats going on.

I think the PD's are needing those UST's to feed back into the SBS for

their repos.

Its a circle jerk, but with finite limits,unlike everything else today.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:02 | 4403593 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, this is it.  If it's inflation they want, than inflation it shall be (for all the wrong reasons).

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:12 | 4403623 madbraz
madbraz's picture

Regardless of the purpose, they don't have to go to market (dealers) to buy/repo them and bid up bond prices.  The reverse repo rate stays at 0.03%, even though demand is through the roof.


A couple of months ago I said that reverse repos would one day hit $200 billion a day when things are truly out of hand.  I thought that would take longer.  We are already at over $100 billion and the market has fallen less than 7%.  


When the system is leveraged to the eyeballs, stuff starts getting out of control quickly.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:17 | 4403638 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

You don't solve a solvency problem by printing more.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:57 | 4403559 fijisailor
fijisailor's picture

The price of PMs now is meaningless except for the fact that you can still buy physical at a huge discount.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:58 | 4403564 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

stocks manipulated up, then stocks manipulated down. the fed does the pump and dump again.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 12:28 | 4403575 kragsquest
kragsquest's picture

The paper assets are collapsing, the system is about to blow, BUY GOLD AND SILVER!!!

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:58 | 4403565 butchee
butchee's picture

Pair trade: Buy the dip and sell the rip.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 09:59 | 4403579 enloe creek
enloe creek's picture

doesn't matter really if it goes up or down the big uglies are making money on it and living large on your misfortune as they always will and always have been, it is certain that it will forever be that way, get over it

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:04 | 4403597 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

Gold will be back down to 1250 soon, the adp wasn't as bad as algo's thought.....another day in insane ayslum.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:10 | 4403619 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Humans forget about the ADP after 1 hour.

Algos have no memory.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:41 | 4403766 Villageidiot777
Villageidiot777's picture

At least someone already forgot. Spot gold under pre-adp levels. Hour and a half later that is.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:14 | 4403632 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

but of course the flying monkeys of the SPT ("Spike Protection Team") of JPM were there to monkey hammer the PM's from the 1270 and 20 levels, weren't they?  Right on queue, bitchez!

I love it...I hate the jobs news, but nothing is going to change there...this is only going to continue to get worse.  But for those of us who are awake, preparing, and most of all STACKING, well, I guess I gotta say I love the flying monkeys for keeping the phyzz on sale for us all a while longer.

***This not only gives us time to stack cheeply for longer, but gives us time to wake up more sheeple and help them to get to stackin' as well***

We are on the Titanic, folks, and it's going down fast.  We can't just tell people to drink up and keep dancing (or sleeping) as this government continues to ram us into the iceberg...we have to help them to the very few life boats that are left which are silver and gold (and food, water, ammo, guns, etc.).  Those are some of the only things left that are going to save their lives at this point.


Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:19 | 4403649 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Is the forthcoming untaper/double-down good or bad for equities?  Inquiring minds want to know.  Because that answer is really foggy now, and toothpaste never goes back into the tube so neatly as when it was first packed.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:31 | 4403705 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

been plenty of the so-called "surges" in Au in the past weeks. $12? somehow still unable to get past the downward trend channel line. i remember when a surge was $60-$100. wake me up when it gets there. ho hum.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:40 | 4403747 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

jeez...I didn't expect gold to stay at 1270, but down 15 from there already?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:41 | 4403767 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

15 is nothing

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:40 | 4403748 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Looks more like gold dead-cat bounced. Stawks returning to new normal trajectory.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:41 | 4403760 MK ultra
MK ultra's picture

Don't get too excited..

I guaren-fucking-tee it's gonna get beat back down.

Gold back to $1262 at the close.

Silver back to $19.77


Prove me wrong motherfuckers...

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 10:43 | 4403764 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

1257 now...I said 1250 20 mins ago...Gold will go nowhere until gravity takes out stocks..

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 11:25 | 4403947 kralizec
kralizec's picture

It's almost like scripted or this shit works, huh?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 13:12 | 4404344 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

Yeah, it's 100% scripted, controlled, manipulated, whatever to get the avg buster to believe in the fiat markets. Keep stacking metals is all we can do atm. One day this will payoff. The fed and the central banks are very saavy fucks, but their game will fold in due time.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 11:50 | 4404068 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

Part of me wonders if they allow these spikes for the sole purpose of coming over here to see some of the gloating, hit the sell button, then laugh thier collective asses off at the posts of despair.

These blips don't mean jack fucking shit. I'll pay more attention when I start to see the MSM financial news covering metals and it's virtues. For now? These 20 cent and 20 dollar swings are a vapor in the wind.

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