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The Impact Of Heavy Snowfall On Jobs: What The Facts Really Say

Tyler Durden's picture




 

If you repeat a lie often enough, and if you only speak with confidence and in a calm, cool collected voice, the people will believed you - propaganda 101. Also, if you repeat enough times that the US economy - that $17 trillion juggernaut 0 which as recently as December was fabled to have entered the escape velocity phase and thus was safe from the adverse side effects of the Fed's taper, has hit a brick wall because of snow in the winter, then maybe the people will believe that too. Of course, there are the facts, and as always happens, the facts are diametrically opposed to the propaganda.

Presenting Exhibit A: a scatterplot chart showing the December-February nonfarm payroll growth vs the snow extent anomaly over the same period collated from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab. The correlation between the two data sets... drumroll: -10%. In fact, over the entire historical record, there are only three instances when heavy snow coincided with job losses, less than when there was light snowfall. In other words, there is virtually no correlation between the amount of heavy snowfall and concurrent jobs gains, and in reality, there is a modest inverse correlation.

So perhaps next year, when strong jobs report coincide with heavy snowfall, the propaganda will at least have modest empirical evidence on its side.

Alas, for now, the propaganda is just that...

Source: @not_jim_cramer

 

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Wed, 02/05/2014 - 20:03 | 4406113 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Methinx TPTB are always testing the boundaries of plausibility. An excellent, yet obvious, strategy if you asked moi . 

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 20:08 | 4406132 Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

Where I live anytime it looks like there is going to be snow there are numerous ads on Craigslist offering jobs to folks willing to shovel and clear snow.  Seems like snow = jobs, even for a few days.  The benefit is it's cash at the end of the day:-)

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 20:27 | 4406202 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

No worries.

By June, it will be hot weather that is destroying the eCONomy.

You can quote me on that.  Hell, you can almost set your watch by it.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 03:16 | 4407070 WTFMOFO
WTFMOFO's picture

"The Goldielocks Syndrome"

 

 

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 03:33 | 4407088 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

And it's NOT Obamas constant lies, scandals and cover ups, that have destroyed his credibility.

It's FOX news telling us about them !

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 20:51 | 4406283 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Shovel-ready. That is no snow-job....unlike gummint.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 20:35 | 4406229 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

The attention span of most can't make it through the word, "plausibitlity".

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 20:40 | 4406245 Wjunk
Wjunk's picture

You lost me at 'The'

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 03:36 | 4407091 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

...plau.....snowplau ?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 20:53 | 4406298 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Are you accusing me of a short atten....Squirrel!!

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 21:04 | 4406328 Joseff Stalin
Joseff Stalin's picture

Snow job.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 20:03 | 4406114 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Only mathematics and climate change are less correlated.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 20:21 | 4406182 TheGoldMyth
TheGoldMyth's picture

As founder of economic climate science, breakthrough cutting edge, new and improved method, i can predict cold weather based on economic indicators of CO2 production :-)

The sharp drop in the Baltic Dry index, austerity measures, and cuts in food stamps etc mean vastly less CO2 is in the atmosphere which is causing cold weather.

Not enough Carbon !! Ordinary climate scientists don't look at the impact of austerity and global slowdown on CO2 when they stick their finger in the air. 

If this ship full of climate scientist had consulted with an economic climate scientist, they would not have been stuck in the ice in Antartica. 50 of them were on the icebreaker that got stuck. Even ordinary climate scientists should have been able to predict there would be more ice in the near term so ordinary climate science has to go or upgrade their training to economic climate science.  Study the banking system, bla bla...etc etc...

http://investmentwatchblog.com/on-the-coldest-day-in-america-in-20-years-here-are-al-gores-stupidest-global-warming-quotes/

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 04:08 | 4407111 Gief Gold Plox
Gief Gold Plox's picture

LOL + 100

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 20:06 | 4406121 philipat
philipat's picture

Don't bother me with the details. Are those presses serviced and ready to go again?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 20:39 | 4406247 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

The "FED PRINTER MECHANIX UNION LOCAL 33" has joined the SEIU.

They are currenly striking in solidarity with their fast-food brethren.

 

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 20:09 | 4406126 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Snowjobs on the Fall: What the Facts Really Can't Say...

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 20:09 | 4406134 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

It isn't real snow anymore, anyway (3 min):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VgbGMTYKqI

The stuff doesn't melt, anywhere in the US. All these storms are dumping fake snow. And fake snow affects jobs how?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 20:12 | 4406147 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

My snow melts. Rather than trying to burn it with a lighter, put some in a cup and come back in a few hours. You should have a bit of water.

I tried to burn mine and it did turn a little black but water dropped from the snow.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 20:19 | 4406164 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Sublimation.

 

Put it (snow) in your hand (place lighter in safe place), wait 30 seconds, wipe moisture away with hand towel.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 22:48 | 4406660 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Excuse me, but that's our water, not your water. Put it back and send a fine of $500 to the "US Criminals in DC."

Your Local EPA Criminal

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 20:39 | 4406238 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Our snow melts when I pee on it.   GF gets a little pissy about her part of the experiment.

Who cares what the neighbors think, Honey.  Let's give them something to talk about;)

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 03:09 | 4407061 WTFMOFO
WTFMOFO's picture

At the white house one snowy morning Mooochelle woke up to find the name "Barack Obama" spelled in the snow in pee. She had the CIA investigate.  The CIA told her that they have "good news and bad news".  The good news is that DNA testing says it is your husbands piss, but the bad news is that it's in Rahm Emanuel's handwriting.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 00:48 | 4406908 Ident 7777 economy
Ident 7777 economy's picture

Not Too Important - that is a "mind fuck" for the 'simples' (used tobe called 'simpletons')

 

Residents of "US of KKK" not "too bright" anymore. 

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 20:14 | 4406135 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

All that snow means overtime for plow drivers, and extra employees needed for all the landscape companies that do snow removal.

I did a lot of snow removal back in the day; got fat overtime checks with Winter storms.  Bought gloves for my crew of south of the border laborers because the company wouldn't; and some of the guys had never seen snow.

It's also bullish for fuel, salt, sand, shovel, and snow blower sales just as high temps in Summer sells fans and makes a lot of money for utility companies and air conditioning contractors.

Kudlow show pushing this ridiculous weather meme tonight. 

It is a measure of our current insanity that we blame cold on Winter and heat on Summer.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 20:42 | 4406251 Wjunk
Wjunk's picture

A nation of idiots ruled by liars, thieves and jackasses.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 21:09 | 4406345 TheGoldMyth
TheGoldMyth's picture

ebworthen: I invented economic climate science for a joke, Basically the view i have is that the climate is governed by solar cycles and the moon, space weather, and deforestation and a bunch of things i don't know about, so the idea that CO2 alone controls the weather is the stuff of jon stewart or the comedy festival. Not science. The top criminals probably thought they could privatise the weather too.

I actually think the privately owned governments of the world want to divert resources to the military industrial complex so people wont have gadjhets any more and live a more Amish lifestyle so the privately owned government paranoia freaks can have even more control of their crime and become even more corrupt....Get away with thieving the worlds resources and screw the environment and our food without a problem, surrounding us with fake science and news.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 20:11 | 4406139 sixsigma cygnus...
sixsigma cygnusatratus's picture

 They'll say anything and everything to resurrect the Chicago Climate Exchange.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 20:14 | 4406151 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Doesn't snow mean shovel-ready jobs?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 20:28 | 4406205 What is The Hedge
What is The Hedge's picture

A little disengenous here. Let's see how things plot out using the cold weather and not just snowfall.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 21:10 | 4406358 ThirdCoastSurfer
ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

If the construction employment numbers are holding steady, who the hell believes weather has anything to with the numbers? 

The fact is I do not know anyone who has ever been contacted by the "household survey". I suspect that a large number of fixed households are contacted over and over (it's already been proven that numbers have been manufactured out of thin air, but not how "varied" those who are contacted are distributed) and since each "contacted" household represents like 110,000 other households, the employment numbers are totally fictional. 

If you have ever been contacted asking for your employment satus, please click negative to this post so I can use a formula of the number of negatives by the number of total views of this article by the number of employed to detemine how valid my theory is within a standard deviation. 

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 21:56 | 4406475 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

And now ladies and gents, Frank Zappa

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acqzDcTRzaY

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 21:52 | 4406487 magne13
magne13's picture

How bout sub zero temps across NAmerica, I think this chart might look different if that variable is used and not snow fall

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 22:07 | 4406531 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

The snow impacts the jobs number, especially in Florida, where they get a massive 0.4 inches a year.

 

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 22:08 | 4406537 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

spring hope eternal

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 22:09 | 4406538 MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

If Fuku was heating the Pacific off the West Coast

A warmer Pacific would draw cooler, drier air off the US landmass


That would encourage the Labrador current to fill the gap on the Eastern Seaboard with Arctic air

Which would result in cold weather in the East and dry weather in the West

Just sayin...;0)

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 22:58 | 4406684 Occams_Chainsaw
Occams_Chainsaw's picture

So where are the whores?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 23:41 | 4406758 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

When the weather is bad I just crawl into a ball and cry softly...like a bitch. I buy nothing, I eat nothing and I go nowhere besides the bathroom for tissues.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 00:50 | 4406913 Ident 7777 economy
Ident 7777 economy's picture

Don't. We. All.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 23:54 | 4406803 kadoka
kadoka's picture

So if it snowed heavy every day, would we all be able to save more money since apparently consumers can't spend money during snowy periods.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 00:58 | 4406934 franzpick
franzpick's picture

Mark Levin has done a splendid job tonight explaining Jay Karnak's and Harry Reid's interpretation of how ObamaScare standards will help millions of citizens escape the horrors of "job-lock", so as to have more personal choices as well as additional quality time with their families.

Additional ACA type minimum standards, applied to other areas in which people are similarly 'trapped', will greatly relieve millions more Americans stranded in old insurance policies, underwater houses and over mileage 4 year auto leases, with new minimum requirements that will free them from sub-standard agreements and eliminate their struggles with "doc-lock", "house-lock" and "car-lock".

And good-lock to all.

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