ISM Services, Immune To Snow And Cold, Beat Expectations

Tyler Durden's picture

Weather affected jobs; weather affected manufacturing; and weather affected the global outlook for the economy... but weather did not affect the US ISM Services index which modestly beat expectations. However, at 54.0 (vs a 53.7 expectation), ISM Services remain notably below the three-year average and while new orders rose modestly, they remain a smidge above 5 year lows... Today we saw how bad weather is used to explain away the bad January numbers (ADP), but when the number is better than expected, the weather spin is ignored and it is a "reflection of the stronger economy" as was the case with the just released Services ISM number - and that is how you pick and choose the components that fit your narrative... and the tapering trend can continue.



A small beat but well below the average of the "recovery"...


Spot the bounce in new orders...


Full table:


What the respondents said...

Some of the respondents indicate that weather conditions have impacted their business. There remains a bit of uncertainty about the overall economy for some of the survey respondents; however, the majority feel positive about continued economic growth.

"Slight increase in business being seen currently." (Management of Companies & Support Services)

"Business conditions continue to improve." (Information)

"Activity picking up on new-year projects." (Finance & Insurance)

"All phases of the business seem to be getting stronger and have good first half-year outlooks and booked business." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)

"Sales has shown signs of improvement, but lack a sustained pattern to build confidence." (Retail Trade)

"Casual dining remains challenging, tends to slow after the holidays." (Accommodation & Food Services)

"Intense weather in several areas of the country is perceived to have contributed to a slow start in what otherwise is historically a strong month." (Wholesale Trade)

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Occident Mortal's picture

The Fed wants to taper, the Fed is happy that the tightening is being exported to EM. That way the Fed avoids any political backlash for QE.


However, EM are not happy, and 2014 might be the straw that broke the camels back in terms of the USD as the global reserve currency.


Make no mistake after the taper and the crunch it will unleash on EM, China will receive very broad global support for a de-Americanized financial system.


The Chinese are playing the long game here, 2014 marks the year when the US turned inward on itself and the Chinese become openly expansionist.


2015/16 we may even see Yuan backed by gold. That does appear to be the underlying narrative here.

The Dunce's picture

The markets can't survive without stimulus.  Expect more money printing.  Word to your mother.

Bearwagon's picture

See, people? The lie just has to be big enough ...

MFLTucson's picture

The evil hand guided by the evil mind.  The lies will never end till they have ruined the country!

youngman's picture

Gold and Silver smacked with the news

Agent P's picture

Snow plowing is a service.

asteroids's picture

The next prez should abolish the SEC, FED, BLS, ADP, etc..... I don't think any of them have told the truth in years.

newsguy68's picture

A great article on the future of the US....


Money Confiscation And Martial Law Unavoidable In US At This Point

Dr. Engali's picture

The "market" didn't like that number.

fonzannoon's picture

I'm watching PM's move up, yields climb (a little) and stocks get creamed.

I'm temporarily speechless. Where is this midget grandma Yellen! I demand Service!


 - retail

Dr. Engali's picture

Don't you know? It's the great rotation Fonz. What was shit last year is golden this year. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Stoploss's picture

LOL!!!  Who knew they were naming winter storms?


Uh oh, forecast is for a blistering low of 34 degrees, schools may be closed tomorrow..

adr's picture

My kid's school was closed because the Propaganda channel was claiming we were going to get 14"+. We woke up this morning to 2".

The media is trying to make us think it is abnormal to have snow in winter. That way if we don't get snow they can claim that is normal because global warming happened.

kralizec's picture

It's the cold, it's not the's almost like they just make up whatever shit they want.

Wait, no, that can't be right!


Oldwood's picture

Hey, we understand physics. Things just natually move slower (and get smaller) when cold!

kralizec's picture

She still won't matter how slowly I say it...

vote_libertarian_party's picture



Everybody knows snow can prevent you from going to work and building a widget but it can't prevent you from going out to get a manicure.

zaphod42's picture

The "recovery" of course refers to only the FIRE economy.  We see that the bifurcation is complete, and now we have two separate economies, tied together only by the fiction that both are measured by the same token (the U$D). 

As FIRE inflates, the Real Economy (which I will refer to as the R/E) stagnates or even deflates. 

Makes the lies easier to tell, and harder to debunk.  Whadda year!


Oldwood's picture

Everything is perception, but more importantly perception is what we CHOOSE it to be. Is the glass 3/4 empty or 1/4 full? People are stupid because they choose to ignore reality, but they are not dumb, because even though they may deny reality, they still know what it is (which is why they deny it).

Rising Sun's picture

Stuff those channels faster assholes.  If you run out of room, stuff more inventory up Janet Yellen's cunt!!

U4 eee aaa's picture

Is this the case of the weather not being able to affect the make believe?