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What Happens Next?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

What goes up (via free money and practically infinite leverage and rehypothecation) must come down (when the flow slows)... the dominoes are falling...

 

First Emerging Markets, then US High-yield credit, then US Stocks, and now European stocks...

 

and remember - this "selling" overseas does not mean "buying" domestically as the majority of these hot money flow trades are credit-funded and merely extinguish the debt at the margin...

 

h/t Bloomberg's Chase van der Rhoer

 

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Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:36 | 4404920 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

looks like a buying oppurtunity.  Bob doll and A joseph cohen told me

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:40 | 4404953 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

The term "collateral damage" comes to mind here watching these markets starting to drop like a dumb bomb!

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:48 | 4405001 WarriorClass
WarriorClass's picture

CT Collectivist Gun Grabber Ruthlessly Exposed By Sipsey Street Irregulars

http://americandictators.blogspot.com/2014/02/mike-vanderboeghs-2nd-lett...

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:57 | 4405055 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The bottom could be a long way off, and I won't be buying any more Herbalife shares until Jimmy Jam Cramer has a public meltdown whilst chiding Mrs. Janet Debtfire, Doug Kass talks about his bottom on cnBSc or Obama says that "it may be a good time to buy some stocks" while speaking into the microphone at the Rose Garden podium/teleprompter.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:41 | 4404955 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture


Tax and investment strategy is distraction from creation and preservation of wealth. America must is demand restoration of constitutional republic, or resort to barter economy. Like Poland and Hungary, you are eventually surrender all retirement saving in name of "National Emergency". Better you are have good stock of toilet paper in cellar.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:49 | 4405009 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

"Better you are have good stock of toilet paper in cellar"

 

I do. They are called Federal Reserve Notes.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:02 | 4405089 Dugald
Dugald's picture

Cor! aint your engrish improved sum ting wonderful!!!!

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:25 | 4405225 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> you are eventually surrender all retirement saving

I've got less than a year before I can start tapping mine.  I've got enough in there to sustain me for four years at my current burn rate.  It might not be the best tax strategy, but I'm going to burn what's in there before touching anything else.  Unless, of course, things all look rosy on the confiscation front, then I'll have a more tax friendly controlled descent.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 18:09 | 4405697 Dimons jock
Dimons jock's picture

I'm long corn cobs ... bring it 

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:53 | 4405036 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Normally, I woudl trade this, but now I am just going to bed.  Wake me up when we are under ES 1700.  

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:04 | 4405109 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Desperate people will take desperate measures. TPTB have control over central banks and they

will print infinite amounts of money to protect their wealth. But central banks can"t print gold

or silver. Therefore buying physical PMs is safer than shorting the stock or bond markets. Live long

and prosper ZHers.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:38 | 4404925 HyBrasilian
HyBrasilian's picture

Ctrl+P [But not until MOAR consolidation in to FEWER hands]

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:44 | 4404963 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Where is Ctrl+Z (Command-Z on Macintosh personal computer)!?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:35 | 4404927 semperfi
semperfi's picture

and my popcorn's a-poppin!

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:45 | 4404973 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

No offense, but if I had a nickle for every time I read that over the course of the last four years I would be Kyle Bass.

 

Edit: I did not junk you btw.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:00 | 4405080 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

If I had a nickle for every nickle I have, I'd have two nickles.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:17 | 4405173 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Then you could rub 'em together! ;-)

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:21 | 4405191 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Don't have a pot to piss in however.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:23 | 4405212 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

When someone offers you 'a penny for your thoughts'; and you throw in your 'two cents,' what happens to the extra penny?...

 

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 17:25 | 4405524 Keyser
Keyser's picture

It goes to pay the debt for when the 1st penny was created. No debt, no money. 

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:26 | 4405223 halfawake
halfawake's picture

now four!! i think that's rehypothecation or something.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:12 | 4405128 vie
vie's picture

Isn't that how they want it?  You've heard it so many times you ignore it when it's actually going down?

My theory is the Fed is too stupid to be stupid.  They know exactly what they're doing.  If that's the case, what are they doing...  I suspect, as we've all heard, trying to force a global currency reset.   If they can crash the world economy, that would set them up pretty well for a reset, wouldn't it?  Problem-Reaction-Solution.

We know they like to change hands in the middle of these things so it looks like idiocy and accidental fumbling instead of precise planning.  We know they like the set expectations to be the opposite of the reality they intend, otherwise they wouldn't get people to fall for it.  If Janet is an uber-dove, everyone expects her to print more to get out of it and reverse the taper so they BTFD as we've been trained to do.  My bet is she will "reverse the taper" but the market will still crash (either now or later) as we see a series of bull traps, while we see massive deflation in assets.  

How else are they going to suck up the worlds wealth?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:38 | 4404929 redpill
redpill's picture

I don't think most people realize that because of leverage the majority of the absolute volume never really existed.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:54 | 4405026 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

A mirage projecting a mirage. Money instead of an oasis.

Those paper fortunes have a habit of disappearing via

spontaneous combustion.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 17:24 | 4405527 Keyser
Keyser's picture

or margin call. One way or the other. 

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:54 | 4405038 Spastica Rex
Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:37 | 4404937 DIgnified
DIgnified's picture

Im ready.  Let's get this over with. 

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:38 | 4404941 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

What's next should be some liquidation to cover margin calls, n'est-ce pas?  Personally, I'm going to mortgage Marvin Gardens and the railroads.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:20 | 4405192 fuu
fuu's picture

Oddly enough Marven Gardens is the only property on the board that is not in Atlantic City. Parker Brothers apologized for the spelling error a few years ago.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:41 | 4404954 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

I'm ready to buy the dip.   

The opera's not over until the fat lady dips.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:42 | 4404961 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

so deflation on a massive scale... I like that!

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:41 | 4405331 halfawake
halfawake's picture

they'd never allow deflation, b/c then average joe's spending power would (technically) increase, and that can't be allowed. they have to progress the chasm between haves and havenots else the havenots are less likely to choose servitude.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:43 | 4404965 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Jan??

Hello??

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:18 | 4405185 B.J. Worthy
B.J. Worthy's picture

She's on hold with IT about her paper jam.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:44 | 4404971 jughead
jughead's picture

Is it time for me to have my wife cash-out her 401k yet?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:47 | 4404985 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

He who panics first panics best...

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:56 | 4405059 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Panic early and panic often.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:59 | 4405072 falak pema
falak pema's picture

its called precocious shorting...in the financial world.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:47 | 4404991 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Investors taking profits...

Stocks flat on light trading...

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:49 | 4405008 DebtSlaveZombie
DebtSlaveZombie's picture

VWAP...VWAP...VWAP  Watch it.  The selloffs are much stronger than the buying volume.  Its like a slow motion sink...like sinking in quick sand.  The volume tips the next surge downward then a low volume bounce... then back into the cellar again.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:57 | 4405051 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Expect heavy selling into the close.

Its what I would do if I was in this casino.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:01 | 4405078 DebtSlaveZombie
DebtSlaveZombie's picture

Agreed.  Big Big sell pressure into close.  Easy money right here.  This thing is gonna roll over and finish down 20 points.  Then tomorrow and friday could get real ugly.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:13 | 4405151 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

If double POMO cannot close it green ,it will be frugly into the

weekend.

Its actually acting like a real market except for the PM suppresion.

Has the Fed PPT lost it ?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:47 | 4405351 DebtSlaveZombie
DebtSlaveZombie's picture

Not sure.  But I air-balled my short.  The market is dead into the close.  I'm holding my short overnight and may get stopped out early tomorrow but I'm pretty sure we'll gap down tomorrow morning. 

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 18:21 | 4405746 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

You were right until 58 seconds to the close when the HFTs kicked in to save the day! Why? Because they HAD to.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:51 | 4405010 Sufiy
Sufiy's picture


CNBC: Thomas Demark Calls For Risk of 60% Crash In S&P 500

Thomas Demark is calling that the next two - three days will be critical and if the markets go down they can unravel very quickly. If today's weak ADP report can be taken as any guidance the coming up Jobs Report can be weak as well. We think that his call is very extreme, but Taper Pause is becoming the reality with every sell off in the market. Thanks to Bernanke, Janet Yellen has her FED Chair Crisis right at the start of her reign. Gold is fighting the gravity and market manipulators at the $1270 level and once it will close above it the mother of short squeeze in Gold will arrive.

 

http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/cnbc-thomas-demark-calls-for-risk-of...

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:56 | 4405042 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re: Thanks to Bernanke, Janet Yellen has her FED Chair Crisis right at the start of her reign.

Well, when Janet took over the controls, Ben had to slide over while keeping his foot on the gas peddle as Janet took his seat - but he probably couldn't quite keep it depressed all the way and there was a bit of deacceleration.   I'm sure we'll be back to full power shortly.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:02 | 4405068 enloe creek
enloe creek's picture

is momma short squeeze related to long tall sally 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFFgbc5Vcbw

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:01 | 4405083 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Gold and the stock market are dependent upon the mood of the Fed. What happens next is up to the FED. If things are to 'improve' however we will have to see them reverse taper. Otherwise there isn't enough liquidity for more 'fun'. Want to know what happens next? Ask Janet.

And forget the 'markets'...they have nothing to do with anything.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:56 | 4405044 gwar5
gwar5's picture

1929 was not a good year for suckers.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:56 | 4405054 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

this is the best they can do on double POMO day?????

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:57 | 4405064 fijisailor
fijisailor's picture

Panics no longer allowed.  Circuit breakers will close the markets.  Only a steady and consistent loss of faith will drive this down but when it does go down it will stay down hard for a while.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 15:59 | 4405066 DebtSlaveZombie
DebtSlaveZombie's picture

The S&P has failed to stay green all day.  Short the market right now until the close.  Massive downdraft in the S&P starting any second.  Big short move right now.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:00 | 4405070 Al Capowned
Al Capowned's picture

Hopefully huge miss on NFP to really get things burning tomorrow... although will investers see that as green light for fed to come back in with reverse taper??

These markets are a fecking joke

 

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:05 | 4405114 Skin666
Skin666's picture

Another day, another deer...

 

This is getting exciting

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:08 | 4405123 RabbitChow
RabbitChow's picture

Well now, in a healthy market, you just cant go down and down forever. The market has to take a break, and maybe even go up for a bit before continuing its slide into oblivion. So just relax, the market slide downwards will continue in a day or two, its healthier that way.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:19 | 4405190 Al Capowned
Al Capowned's picture

All this off just a couple of weeks and a 23% Taper, i would love to see them try to cut taper more it would be like chucking petrol on a fire

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:26 | 4405220 adr
adr's picture

I want to know what is in the fucking shipping containers in the parking lot outside Best Buy. I might want to buy something in there, but can't because nobody is buying anything in the store.

A new reason for the bad data, inventory can't sell because stores can't even take it out of the shipping containers from China. The spring selling season is already a month and a half in. At this rate the product will have to be marked 50% off before it even makes it in the doors of the store.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 18:51 | 4405857 kurt
kurt's picture

Cool observation. I wonder what the parking lots are looking like outside major air and sea ports. I'll bet the chinese manufacturors are saying, "I don't care what you sell it for, just sell it."

60" TV's for $239.00?

What's wrong with a pretty TV for veiwing the apocalypse?

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 19:45 | 4406052 Muppet
Muppet's picture

A shipping container sitting like that could be there to provide "financial window dressing" for one of Best Buy's suppliers.    Some firms will ask another firm to take a huge amount of their product just before they report so that their numbers look great.   The receiving party does not need to truly want or need the products... they just need to agree to them being sent.   Once done, the sending party can book this as sales.     After they report, the products are returned and it considered no harm, no foul.    This is legal as long as the product actually leaves the senders dock (plant).    

 

Find someone to agree to take 100 trucks loads of your products and it'll help when your quarterly numbers need juicing.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:33 | 4405263 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

BTFWTF!

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 16:32 | 4405274 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

Wonder if there is "secret double POMO"?  Or maybe even secret "pump it up whenever the hell we want to POMO".  Who says they have to play by the rules...they make 'em and break 'em.  Be careful out there.

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 17:29 | 4405557 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Here is what happens next, we trade back down through 1700 to the mid 1600 level then Yellen comes out with her plan to double down on QE raising it to 200 bln per month 100 in bonds and 100 in direct purchases of e-minis.  

 

Market goes limit up and we close out 2014 over 3000.  

Wed, 02/05/2014 - 17:30 | 4405562 Hayabusa
Hayabusa's picture

So if you were one of the richest oligarchs sitting on a pile of cash and you were making tons o cash via stocks, EMs, etc., then the bottom started falling out what would you do?  Personally if I was one, when I saw the writing on the wall, I'd "cash out" and wait for raging deflation to ass-rape everyone else who was over-leveraged.  Once the price of things I wanted (e.g., real estate, factories, uber-cheap labor, businesses, etc.) came way down I'd use my fiat to scoop up some real bargains at bottom dollar deflationary prices.  The rich will make money coming and going... timing is everything.  Deflation can be a good thing if your timing is right and your pile of cash is large enough.

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