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LinkedIn Is Getting Twittered: Here's Why

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Yesterday it was Twitter, today it is LinkedIn. Moments ago, the professional social network reported EPS that just barely beat at $0.39 vs expectations of $0.38, while revenue printed at $447.2 MM vs $437.6 MM expected. However, it is this excerpt from the LNKD release that is causing the stock to be TWTRed 10% after hours.

LinkedIn is providing guidance for the first quarter and full year of 2014:

  • Q1 2014 Guidance: Revenue is expected to range between $455 million and $460 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to range between $106 million and $108 million. The company expects depreciation and amortization to be approximately $48 million, and stock-based compensation to be approximately $68 million.
  • Full Year 2014 Guidance: Revenue is expected to range between $2.02 billion and $2.05 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be approximately $490 million. The company expects depreciation and amortization to be approximately $225 million, and stock-based compensation to be approximately $325 million.

And since the street was looking for $470 million for Q1 revenue, and $2.17 billion for full year, the stock is currently getting monkeyhammered.

Of course, with LTM PE before earnings in the four-digit range before earnings, this 10% drop means the company is back to being a blue-light special bargain... somewhere in the ultra high triple digit PE range.

 


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Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:14 | Link to Comment Agstacker
Agstacker's picture

Beating EPS by a penny seems to be more and more common...

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:16 | Link to Comment Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

Are you suggesting that analysts are getting cleverer?

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:20 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

No revenues was the hallmark of the original Dot Com bubble, and it is again, apparently.  

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:27 | Link to Comment aVileRat
aVileRat's picture

Bingo.

As predicted the readthru was pretty easy tracking. Social media attachment and market click saturation is going to be the focus vs. eyeballs going forward. $/capex is also starting to get worrying.

Pity on the natural gas tape, oh well.

 

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:29 | Link to Comment ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

I especially liked ... "stock-based compensation to be approximately $325 million."

My God ... these guys think they walk on water.

 


Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:28 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Expect a few supernovas soon with down 50 - 70% being the norm

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:40 | Link to Comment BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

The masses are linkedin - but cluedout...

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 20:11 | Link to Comment stant
stant's picture

dont know why but it reminded me of alice cooper. for lack of a song title i picked the first one on yt. billion dollar babies

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:30 | Link to Comment Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Most overvalued of the big social media sites.

1)TWTR - 1.25bn revs and a market cap of 28.4bn

2)YELP - 350mn revs and a market cap of 6.3bn (dont even make money)

3)LNKD - 2.1bn revs and a market cap of 26.7bn

 

 

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:21 | Link to Comment i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Better models I presume.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

Pretty soon, they will allow them to beat EPS by fractions of pennies to help out the situation.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:14 | Link to Comment Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

Link the twits to a lie detector...there needs to be some accountability!

 

Fuck all these hologram want to be "public servants", supposedly looking out for the people.

 

RIPS

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:16 | Link to Comment quintago
quintago's picture

LinkedIn is the best short possible in the face of a market meltdown. Employment drops - earnings will get nailed as all the headhunter revenues dry up. and PE compression will slam it.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:19 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

I think it will become the Black Market HQ....all those unemployed will work for cash.....

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:15 | Link to Comment slotmouth
slotmouth's picture

Momo money momo problems.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:17 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

that stock is still 90% overvalued and should get GRPawned

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 08:56 | Link to Comment The Mist
The Mist's picture

To be fair I've thought about shorting Twitter basically since a week after the IPO, but I never actually made the deal, because I figured QE would probably keep pumping up worthless stock anyway.

Would this decline be caused by the incoming taper?

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:20 | Link to Comment Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

social media is over valued

 

like apple selling premium priced hardware, social media is going to take a fucking beating too

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:24 | Link to Comment Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

Linked In, where the newly unemployed can ask their formerly and possibly employed within their network of connections if they know of any jobs and be ignored all day long. You can however always upgrade to premium and pay to be ignored by employers who ignore your repeated applications to jobs which don't actually even exist. ;)

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:26 | Link to Comment Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

BINGO.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:32 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Lkdn is a great place to be blackballed without even knowing it....goes to. $10 next year

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:45 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

I signed onto Linkedin under  my avatar Winston Churchill, as an IT engineer.

Amazing how many people in south Florida know me , from the the emails

I get claiming some business relationship.

Ponzinomics 101.

,

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 19:16 | Link to Comment Dave Thomas
Dave Thomas's picture

That should scare the shit out of you. I did the same thing, whereas I didn't tell Linked in who I was. Then all of a sudden people with whom I worked started popping up in my suggested circles for some reason. Without asking it jumped into my email client's address book and started leafing through my contacts so it could make "Suggestions" to whom I could link to. Needless to say I chopped the fucking thing.

 

This was pre IPO so maybe their policies have changed, but any Web 2.0 "Monitize the Masses" whore will employ such tactics to get to know as much about you as possible. 

Keep the tinfoil tight friends.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 20:47 | Link to Comment MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

holy, how unsecure is your email?
Mine at least needs a password & it's downloaded into Thunderbird on a secure drive.
And the address book sits in the same secure drive though if I felt like it, it could be put somewhere else & just pretend to be there.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 19:17 | Link to Comment FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

Your name sounds familiar, did we work or go to school together?

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 19:09 | Link to Comment swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

As a self-employed professional, LinkedIn helps me know which of my competitors isn't getting any work. That's when I see a stream of "Joe Blow updated his LinkedIn page!" announcements, and see everyone endorsing each other for the things they supposedly do.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:25 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

All social media stocks should be traded on pink sheets...and priced accordingly. Without exception.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:24 | Link to Comment HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

I guess the only place to put your social dollars to work are rock solid fundamental types like YELP up 20% today. 

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:28 | Link to Comment game theory
game theory's picture

At $90k/year on AVERAGE in stock compensation for employees that are already richly paid, buyers of this stock simply have money they don't want back.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:29 | Link to Comment DavrosoftheDaleks
DavrosoftheDaleks's picture

With Facebook, Twitter and Linkedin, do we actually need the NSA?  The CIA can just sit back and do google searches all day long on people and know everything.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:31 | Link to Comment Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

Naw, if that were true I would have been swampped with job offers to come work for the NSA with my extensive background in Information Systems Security already. 

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:29 | Link to Comment Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

LinkedIn = SpammedToDeath.

fuck that network bullshit

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:31 | Link to Comment Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

PS:

As a added bonus in case there is any doubt, as goes the jobs in the US...so goes LinkedIn's relevance as a useful tool. 

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 18:45 | Link to Comment lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

no! no!  i can't tell you how many indians with or without h1b visas love me!  it's a great way to give away american jobs.  they all want to be my friend, take my friends jobs, and then mine.  linked in is great.  the jobs are gone.  thank you gandhi.  peace and love.

 

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:32 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

...stock-based compensation to be approximately $68 million.

par for the course. one can never have too much stock-based compensation. /s

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:38 | Link to Comment Spungo
Spungo's picture

"I think it will become the Black Market HQ....all those unemployed will work for cash....."

Craigslist?

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:43 | Link to Comment Make_Mine_A_Double
Make_Mine_A_Double's picture

Have you noticed just before these earnings calls you start getting pinged numerous times by LKD algo from people you haven't heard from in years 'endorsing' you for whatever? I was wondering why I was getting all this shit from them.

So now I see the pattern.

 

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:59 | Link to Comment ForWhomTheTollBuilds
ForWhomTheTollBuilds's picture

I keep seeing EBITDA mentioned these days.  Hadn't really heard the term since 2001 or so.  Did we all decide that it was a valid metric again or something?

 

We really do deserve whats coming.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 18:06 | Link to Comment kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Off topic: Does anyone believe that Google is really bringing in all of the revenue that they say they are?

Would I be crazy to suggest that there is some US intelligence "community" funny money business going on?! $60 bil. and $13 bil. revenue and profit respectively for 2013. That's a lot of those shitty little ads and related clicks.

I just don't see it.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 18:11 | Link to Comment 22winmag
22winmag's picture

I remember when Google, FaceBook, Twitter, and Linked-in were just silly notions. To attach billion dollar valuations is just laughable.

 

I also remember all the smart investors and smart executives who refused to buy into (or leave solid positions to work in) the dot com bubble.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 19:41 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Good call. The ad business is supposedly the only business that keeps growing leaps and bounds when demand and sales for the actual products keep declining.

Maybe the marketers have really found their client's nerv and offer them good value for the money but like you said, I don't see it.

Would like to see exactly how those multi billion Dollar earnings are being generated. See, the problem with their "success" is that it just doesn't reflect anywhere in the real world and people like you and me are starting to wonder and asking questions. Is it all just bullshit? I mean we are used to being lied to and served bullshit on a daily basis, so it wouldn't be too far fetched.

Propaganda is a very powerful tool and it can keep the masses at bay for a long time. But when the masses go hungry and they're being told everything is hunky dory, then the masses get restless.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 20:43 | Link to Comment MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

At the last company I worked for they had a built-in search engine for internal documents only, designed by Google. They don't just do ads.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 23:58 | Link to Comment kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Not saying that there is anything funny going on, but my BS-dar is going off.

For comparison, Micro$oft had $78 bil. in revenue in fiscal 2013.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 01:14 | Link to Comment MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

True, this 1000+ share price makes me think GOOG = BTC

nonsensetards abound.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:00 | Link to Comment The Mist
The Mist's picture

Google has far more revenue streams than ads...

'Android' mean anything to you?

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 19:20 | Link to Comment hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

D'ohhh!  Stupid fat finger, I meant to sell all my LNKD-Q.  

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