For Tomorrow's Jobs Report, The Trend Is Not Your Friend

Tyler Durden's picture


Presented with little comment aside to note that 9 of the last 10 Januaries have seen negative surprises...



h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer

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Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:24 | 4408871 Headbanger
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This job report could just be the thing that crushes the markets tomorrow!

You gotta ask yourself a question....

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:25 | 4408882 TruthInSunshine
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Billary 2016

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:29 | 4408892 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Yup.  Sandbagged number and wont matter anyway. SPX trailing USDJPY like a tick on a coonhound's tit.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:44 | 4408911 nuclearsquid
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Is this the one that's going to be like 5.8% right?  Good news bad news Algos should be fun to watch.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:52 | 4409001 Gankfest
Gankfest's picture

The lie will be inflated... No worries! :P

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:06 | 4409051 12ToothAssassin
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Hillary is uniquely qualified to run the empire.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 19:29 | 4409682 flacon
flacon's picture

Can gold finally break out of this downtrend? THAT is the central question. Lately gold has been tracking inverse S&P, so another sell-off in the markets could just be the push that gold needs to break the downtrend. Gold is at a pivotal point right now. 

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:37 | 4408912 Carpenter1
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The 1.3 million booted from EI late last year werent part of the big miss in January, should be reported now but we all know they report whatever they want to report.



Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:45 | 4408943 TruthInSunshine
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This will sound uber-tin foil, but in a decade or so, we'll learn that they were literally just plugging "stawk" index numbers in during and at the end of the day, with absolutely no correlation to reality.

If the stock market was revealed to have crashed right now, the government couldn't perpetuate its existence.

The Ponzi must roll...

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:58 | 4409013 walküre
walküre's picture

Occasionally they drop the index to lure in shorts. Then shorts get blow torched and the thing rips higher. I've learned my lesson the hard way and haven't shorted this bullshit for a number of years now. It would be suicide to keep playing their game.

Maybe TWTR is going to double by years end, maybe NFLX will triple again. Who the fuck knows? Anything is possible, anything. I'm sorry, I just don't gamble with my hard earned money. I'm not in their club and have no shame admitting it.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 18:49 | 4409518 Carpenter1
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Seemed that way in 2007 too, and 2001, etc.

Crashing the system is part of the plan for fleecing the sheep. Calling the crash is another matter, poems and songs written about being early, but I'm short now, just not all in. Don't mind losing 20% knowing one day I'll make 2000%



Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:59 | 4409017 derek_vineyard
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every month is "the" jobs report of all job's reports


Thu, 02/06/2014 - 19:33 | 4409698 flacon
flacon's picture

...but this one is especially important. 



Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:33 | 4409182 caShOnlY
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You only begin to realize it's over by looking at what seems not to make sense and questioning it.  The sheeple can feel something isn't right it but don't have a clue where to look since the indicators they use to guide them are in fact what is exactly being manipulated.  They don't ask nor care why the market is up, it doesn't matter to them. They take the unemployment number at face value.  They cannot see the forest for the trees.  Which leads right inot the proverbial "sheep being led to slaughter". 


Thu, 02/06/2014 - 18:51 | 4409523 ReactionToClose...
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David Weidner of Market watch believes all of it.  Could there be a family connection in there to Walter Duranty?


Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:39 | 4408924 GolfHatesMe
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No report - Snowing everywhere, sorry had to estimate

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:13 | 4409078 TruthInSunshine
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Especially in California.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:52 | 4408994 Canadian Dirtlump
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I'm just interested as to whether or not us precious metals fans will have our faces fuck started.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:22 | 4408872 youngman
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I see a correlation with Presidential election years....bad when a Republican is in charge....good when a Democrat needs to be re elected

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:24 | 4408877 maskone909
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fucking s&p prob wont even touch the 200dma

just when i thought things were changing... ZZzzZZzzz

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:26 | 4408884 Luckhasit
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Don't everyone acted suprised, I'm calling it.  Tomorrow's job report will show an amazing display of a positive job claim.  And the S&P will climb even higher.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:35 | 4408907 mayhem_korner
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And here's my call: the half-life of the relevance of tomorrow's job report on the S&P will be 8 minutes.

(silly me, did I say "minutes"?  I meant, milliseconds, of course...)

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:45 | 4408955 eclectic syncretist
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A good jobs report will only convince everyone that the Fed will continue to tighten, and will result in a down day. 

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:50 | 4408986 mayhem_korner
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I'm not sure a good jobs report will have that outcome.  But that's what would be reported if it does.  Keep in mind that the Fed CANNOT continue to tighten (unless it consciously wants the U.S. to morph into Ukraine almost over night).

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:27 | 4408886 Rathmullan
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"weather adjusted", I suspect it will be incredibly bullish (as usual)

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:29 | 4408893 youngman
youngman's picture

Do you want the actual number...or the reported animals

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:31 | 4408901 mayhem_korner
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It no longer matters whether the made-up data is good or bad relative to "consensus".  What matters is the polarity of the nano-responding algos - that is, whether good news means ramp and bad news means crash, or vice-versa.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:31 | 4408903 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

The disaster that was the Dec. payroll number saw the USD/JPY/SPY close higher by 2 points and the DOW higher by 20+.  If this report "beats" by even a small amount, we'll be back to 1800/16,000 in seconds.  If it misses, the USD/JPY will test 103.  

What have we learned the past couple of years people?  They manipulate everything.  Currencies, LIBOR, PM's, yield curve, data, earnings, GDP, CPI, etc...  It's ALL bullshit.



Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:50 | 4408980 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

agreed man, its sickening to watch.


i would say the last 5 bad jobs reports we got, the only time we actually sold off ( only to come back to flat to up for the day) was in september, and the sell off was '' because of syria''.


these jackasses in the msm always say how this jobs report is the biggest, but we all know how it works,


if it misses, its due to the fucking weather, even though the weather is the same fucking weather as we see every fucking winter across the country, cold, snow, etc.


if it beats, this economy is doing great, and we wont here about the weather until next time it misses.


do these fuckers think that in past years winters the weather during the winter has been sunny and hot across the nation?


i fucking hope they report like 50,000 jobs, but then again who gives a shit, as long as the yen continues to weaken vs the dollar then stocks will go up

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:37 | 4409190 Dimons jock
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So they'll run it up tomorrow but revise down next month to temper the market from skying ...

this sounds like they're bullshitting us  ;) 

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 23:23 | 4410492 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

The "run-up" was today.  Before the number.  Weird, huh?  Almost like "some" people know the eventual outcome.  Kinda like the pre-release of the FED minutes 24 hours early that people seem to forget.  Hmmm?

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:33 | 4408905 daneskold
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It's always bullish

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:33 | 4408906 Dead Man Walking
Dead Man Walking's picture

If you like your job you can keep your job.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:35 | 4408909 DB Cooper
DB Cooper's picture

Yeah, but Bad News is Good News!

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:46 | 4408951 Dimons jock
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I can't see the numbers being bad - the show must go on & "things" need to be revised or it's gonna be a shitty weekend for most ...

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:52 | 4408987 walküre
walküre's picture

Less people counted as unemployed means a better U1. Labor participation force and that shit doesn't matter. Who cares how many people actually have a job, let alone a decent job that can support their family, mortgage, tuition or car payments. The good paying jobs are disappearing at an alarming rate and all that's coming up are crap jobs, min. wage or a little better than min. wage. Obozocare is confusing as hell and that will add to the growing part time employment meme.

Of course it's bullish and stocks will fly beyond the sky, beyond the atmosphere and straight into orbit. The media will report how the economy is recovering and how unemployment numbers are looking better, how people are working more than ever in 3 or 4 jobs just to keep the roof over their heads and crumbs on the table. Elite will party on and keep stacking their wealth, nevermind investing or taking on new ventures.

QE is still running at 65 billion a month, the elite doesn't need to break a sweat yet.

It's their world, their system, their perfect life. You are not invited in unless you're serving their food, cleaning their toilets or manecuring their lawns. You will never have a chance to participate or create wealth for yourself. That is not your calling as you have been born a serf and will die a serf.

Life sucks but it has always sucked unless the elite class gets removed, the dice roll anew and everyone gets a fair shake at life regardless of color, background or bank account. The day that real skills matter is the day that the elite is fucked because they got none.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:52 | 4408996 Bold Eagle
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Based on today's reaction in stawks, the number will be a beat. We all know that the NFP number was leaked as usual to the insiders.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:59 | 4409027 mayhem_korner
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If the insiders knew tomorrow was going to be a 'beat', wouldn't they tank the market today to gain on the pop tomorrow?

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:23 | 4409121 Haager
Haager's picture

But if the insiders know it will be a beat and therefore everyone would expect them to drop the stocks beforehand they'd possibly anticipate that with pumping the stocks up while smoking some shorters today and other shorters tomorrow due to the NFP-peak to gain the utmost maximum? Or even better because this too could have been anticipated by us people: Pump up stocks now, let it tank b4 NFP, then reenter and smoke everyone in it while stocks climb into the atmosphere? 

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:19 | 4409011 The_Ungrateful_Yid
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If you don't like our phony job report, you can go fuck yourself.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 16:59 | 4409031 FieldingMellish
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It won't matter. Bad news is good news and good news is good news. Buy stawks, sell protection.... always sell protection.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:09 | 4409057 LawsofPhysics
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Thu, 02/06/2014 - 17:43 | 4409203 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Oh they lie about everything. Why even bother.

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 18:08 | 4409315 BullyBearish
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Where is the poison?  It's so simple...are you the sort of man who would put the poison in his own glass or his enemy's?

Thu, 02/06/2014 - 18:19 | 4409372 The.Harmless.Who
The.Harmless.Who's picture



Where's Clarence Beaks when you need him!  



Thu, 02/06/2014 - 19:40 | 4409726 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

Yeah, where the hell is beaks?



Thu, 02/06/2014 - 19:48 | 4409746 The.Harmless.Who
The.Harmless.Who's picture


Found him:


(as polite as ever)




Looking good Billy-Ray.


Thu, 02/06/2014 - 20:48 | 4409983 TheRideNeverEnds
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Whatever the number is we are going substantially higher, you can take that to the bank.


I am thinking 1800 tomorrow 1850+ by next week, 1900+ by the end of the month.  



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