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BLS Revises Historical Job Numbers Higher By Half A Million: A Look At The "Before" And "After"
With the HFT brigade selling then buying, and trying to goalseek an explanation of why this happened after the fact, one key aspect of today's release that was ignored is that the BLS just revised its Establishment Survey data, in the process changing all historical job numbers. To wit: "Establishment survey data have been revised as a result of the annual benchmarking process and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors. Also, household survey data for January 2014 reflect updated population estimates." As a result of this revision, while the monthly changes were not that dramatic, what happened is that the "stock" level of jobs as reflected in the Establishment Survey rose by half a million as of December 31, from 136,877 to 137,386. And so all key historic data - from GDP in early 2013 to jobs - has now been revised to reflect a more rosy economy, and instill consumers with even more confidence in hopes they will spend, spend, spend.
A table summary of the change: before and after.
And the monthly change in the Establishment Survey in the pre and post-revision numbers.
Some more details from the BLS on the revision:
In accordance with annual practice, the establishment survey data released today have been benchmarked to reflect comprehensive counts of payroll jobs for March 2013. These counts are derived principally from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which enumerates jobs covered by the UI tax system. The benchmark process results in revisions to not seasonally adjusted data from April 2012 forward. Seasonally adjusted data from January 2009 forward are subject to revision. In addition, data for some series prior to 2009, both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, incorporate revisions.
The total nonfarm employment level for March 2013 was revised upward by 369,000 (+347,000 on a not seasonally adjusted basis, or 0.3 percent). The average benchmark revision over the past 10 years was plus or minus 0.3 percent.
This revision incorporates the reclassification of jobs in the QCEW. Private household employment is out of scope for the establishment survey. The QCEW reclassified some private household employment into an industry that is in scope for the establishment survey--services for the elderly and persons with disabilities. This reclassification accounted for an increase of 466,000 jobs in the establishment survey. This increase of 466,000 associated with reclassification was offset by survey error of -119,000 for a total net benchmark revision of +347,000 on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Historical time series have been reconstructed to incorporate these revisions.
The effect of these revisions on the underlying trend in nonfarm payroll employment was minor. For example, the over-the-year change in total nonfarm employment for 2013 was revised from 2,186,000 to 2,322,000 seasonally adjusted. Table A presents revised total nonfarm employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for January through December 2013.
And now, if only the Department of Truth can revise away the Great Financial Crisis, and all shall be well.
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Wall St has a disease. It's called DISTAPER!
"Establishment survey data have been revised as a result of the annual benchmarking process and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors.."
-should read-
"Establishment survey data have been revised as a result of the annual GOALSEEKING process and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors."
EMBRACE THE FRAUD.
It's 1984 all over again.
Every year is 1984.
The Depraved Indifference:
http://americandictators.blogspot.com/2014/02/mike-vanderboegh-exposes-m...
Great news, NO MORE "JOB LOCK" in USSA! You are not like you are job, you can quit you are job!
In other news, chocolate ration is increase from 5g per day to 20g per week.
If they mention the nonseasonally adjusted households the BLS called / if they didnt seasonally adjust like that, they couldnt keep tapering, you know
I hear there's a shot for that. Hopefully the needle is 9mm...
In other healthcare news: Jails in 6 states put inmates on Obamacare
But don't those inmates have to show their voter registration cards before getting healthcare?
The article says theyre enrolling them before they are convicted.
I don't trust Wall Street. Nor do I trust my mother. Bitches.
I am going to buy some puts first thing this morning...i see no reason why anybody would want to be long going into this weekend. This morning bounce aint scaring me.
Hope you make a frigging mint.
We just saw the pop... And now the drop!
Looks like the market just hit up against the major channel line it broke below on Monday
You shouldn't do that unless you get unlimited mulligans...errr DKs....like Goldman.
I would be careful with that trade. Old Yeller testifies before CONgress next week. I've been buying the dip, but I would be cautious holding a position before then. One word from her and this market will scream higher.
Courtesy of our Dear Leader, the Propaganda President!
If you look hard....you might find a smidgen of truth.
G O -1984
We're being lied too? < shocker >
History is very clear on one thing; roll the mother fucking guillotines, nothing changes otherwise.
Remember the preferred method of throwing the bums out is voting. It is much more pleasant even for those who get throw out of office.
This BS needs to stop.
Why? Do they suffer any real consequences like bankruptcy or a real decline in their current standard of living? With all due respect Angie, pull your head out of your ass. Just serving a single term makes you set for life although it does seem that getting in on the IMF or UN scam is the real ticket. Those who make justice impossible make a violent revolution unavoidable.
For the good of you and yours, I sincerely hope you hedge accordingly.
What good does replacing one bum do when you get much of the same with another bum. The candidates themselves are rigged. When they're not rigged, they either become ineffective very quickly or they are rigged after they take office.
If you still vote, you're voting for your own enslavement.
If you want this BS to stop, stop fucking voting for it!
It doesn't matter who sits in the congressional chair anymore. The lobbyists write the bills. Cases in point... 0zer0care, Farm Bill, Amnesty etc. Term limits just means more lobbyist influence, if that's even possible. The most important elections in 2014 will be the primaries. It's the only hope of any changes, even minor ones happening. Every real constitutional candidate should be supported. But even that won't be enough at this point. Too often, even these people are corrupted as soon as they hit Wash DC. We have truly crossed the Rubicon. Real change will never happen until the masses are demonstrating in the streets. Today the only thing that will cause that is if you cut off their Free Govt Shit, so that will never happen. No, it will have to get so bad that the masses are literally starving in the streets before real change will occur. This shit is going to go on for years, probably decades and become unimaginably worse before it finally breaks.
"Establishment survey data have been revised as a result of the annual benchmarking process and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors..."
Yeah, and then BLS added:
Source: http://allrecipes.com/recipe/fudge/
Yellenomics?
Yeah right, like the extremely negative revisions in years past (2011, I believe) had any negative impact on the market back then.
It was also officially reported that the late, great Kim Jong-IL recorded 11 holes-in-one in a single round of golf.
Pretty amazing on a 9 hole eh? Poor ball washers....
"Poor ball washers"
What does Obama have to do with this?
One letter too many in B(L)S!
They must have forgotten to include forced labour in Gitmo.
War is Peace , Freedom is Slavery, Ignorance is Strength , ... truth.... the truth is for suckers.
what is truth
The goddess I worship.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truth
"truth" is whatever you make it, but knowledge is power.
and the old numbers were promptly put in the memory hole, and off to the incinerator. Thus a new version of history.
This just in: the BLS just revised the Super Bowl. Broncos won, 97-1.
Please revise additional dollars in my bank account.
Just send me your account number and password and we'll take care of that pronto.
Don't worry, MyRA will take care of those "additional" dollars in your account that you are so worried about....
" And so all key historic data - from GDP in early 2013 to jobs - has now been revised to reflect a more rosy economy, and instill consumers with even more confidence in hopes they will spend, spend, spend."
That assumes the "consumer" even looks at these numbers.
The consumer, as a result of stock charged IRA gains, thinks things are getting better. They will not think differently until "After" the "event". And as before they will cry and ask questions and it will start all over again.
To factor in what the average "consumer" thinks into anything is adding ignorance to the equation.
the revsions make it look pretty
Everything is awesome!
Who controls the past now controls the future. Who controls the present now controls the past.
Today's action reads more or less like a sick patient that goes to the doctor and finds out that he is going to die, but leaves the hospital happy because the doctor commented that he liked his new shirt.
In other words, you have to be a lunatic to still believe in the plot being told.
Potemkin village.
aka Sochi
If you are at home taking care of your elderly parents or a disabled child or whatever, you are now considered employed though you likely earn no income or pay any taxes as a result of your labor of love. In fact, one would hope you receive some assistance from the government beyond a placard for parking. Welcome to the workforce!
I'd like to know what they learned to revise the numbers up 2k for the time frame January 1980.
Seriously. What new information did they uncover?
Al least Jan 1939 did not change.
And the Bureau of Labor Statistics has now determined that Mario Mendoza's career batting average was .381 and exceeded Ty Cobbs by 13.2 points after seasonal adjustments, infield fielding averages, opposing pitchers ERA numbers and an hedonic adjustment due to global warming that shows Mendoza was the greatest hitter of all time!
Gotta be honest. Watching things the past few days, I smell official panic. There is some frantic contract slinging desperation going on to maintain various pricing levels, and repeated tests of those levels by the market, I have not seen before.
It's become my belief and has been for some time that this lieing by government officials will never change it's now systemic. No matter who is put in office by vote the system in place will not change. These career jobs and roles create such a bizarre reality that it no longer allows for the law makers to see the real economy. How can a representative even make a case for economic change of course when all these numbers are made up to save the status quo or administration.
The status quo is already gone, and it is never coming back. I suspect that those in power who understand this fear the day when a minimum number of people understand this.
Our government has a long history of lies as do most governments.
Thank you for calling the ministry of truth
For maipulated economic figures, press 1
For NSA access to financial records, press 2
For intercepted web browsing history, press 3
For White House talking points, press 4
For wholesale orders of EBT an SNAP cards, press 5
To buy a Supreme Court decision, press 6
For all other matters, please stay on the line and an ACORN representative will be happy to assist you. Please note that your call will be recorded for quality control purposes.
very funny MR.
BUT
you gotta read this
http://mises.org/journals/jls/12_2/12_2_6.pdf
Custer was annihilated, his worthless hide was probably pierced with dozens of arrows and later he was probably filleted.
Ain't no friggin' lie there, by God, I tell ya.
It's the truth and it remains the truth.
Probably a healthy warning too.
If Custer was only a banker.... sigh.
Well, I see someone finally upgraded to Excel 2013. Took you long enough. I don't know how you thought we were supposed to get our fill of chart porn with antiquated color palettes.
Im so tired of this foreplay. Lets get it on for gods sake. There are not enough bunkers or private jets for these clowns. I think they know this and thats why all the chair shuffling behind the scenes. They know justice doesnt mean jail cells but comes from the barrel of a black rifle. Looking at comments on sites can give you a sample of what the average media obsessed american thinks. From reading comments on those main stream sites TPTB are in trouble. The matrix is quickly losing power and people are waking up. They are desperate and planning something BIG!!
Haha, I called it yesterday.