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BLS Revises Historical Job Numbers Higher By Half A Million: A Look At The "Before" And "After"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

With the HFT brigade selling then buying, and trying to goalseek an explanation of why this happened after the fact, one key aspect of today's release that was ignored is that the BLS just revised its Establishment Survey data, in the process changing all historical job numbers. To wit: "Establishment survey data have been revised as a result of the annual benchmarking process and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors. Also, household survey data for January 2014 reflect updated population estimates." As a result of this revision, while the monthly changes were not that dramatic, what happened is that the "stock" level of jobs as reflected in the Establishment Survey rose by half a million as of December 31, from 136,877 to 137,386. And so all key historic data - from GDP in early 2013 to jobs - has now been revised to reflect a more rosy economy, and instill consumers with even more confidence in hopes they will spend, spend, spend.

A table summary of the change: before and after.

And the monthly change in the Establishment Survey in the pre and post-revision numbers.

Some more details from the BLS on the revision:

In accordance with annual practice, the establishment survey data released today have been benchmarked to reflect comprehensive counts of payroll jobs for March  2013. These counts are derived principally from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which enumerates jobs covered by the UI tax system. The benchmark process results in revisions to not seasonally adjusted data from April 2012 forward. Seasonally adjusted data from January 2009 forward are subject to revision. In addition, data for some series prior to 2009, both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, incorporate revisions.

 

The total nonfarm employment level for March 2013 was revised upward by 369,000 (+347,000 on a not seasonally adjusted basis, or 0.3 percent). The average benchmark revision over the past 10 years was plus or minus 0.3 percent.

 

This revision incorporates the reclassification of jobs in the QCEW. Private household employment is out of scope for the establishment survey. The QCEW reclassified some private household employment into an industry that is in scope for the establishment survey--services for the elderly and persons with disabilities. This reclassification accounted for an increase of 466,000 jobs in the establishment survey. This increase of 466,000 associated with reclassification was offset by survey error of -119,000 for a total net benchmark revision of +347,000 on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Historical time series have been reconstructed to incorporate these revisions.

 

The effect of these revisions on the underlying trend in nonfarm payroll employment was minor. For example, the over-the-year change in total nonfarm employment for 2013 was revised from 2,186,000 to 2,322,000 seasonally adjusted. Table A presents revised total nonfarm employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for January through December 2013.

And now, if only the Department of Truth can revise away the Great Financial Crisis, and all shall be well.

 


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Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:23 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

Wall St has a disease. It's called DISTAPER!

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:27 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

"Establishment survey data have been revised as a result of the annual benchmarking process and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors.."

-should read-

"Establishment survey data have been revised as a result of the annual GOALSEEKING process and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors."

EMBRACE THE FRAUD.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:39 | Link to Comment eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

It's 1984 all over again.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 11:29 | Link to Comment Diet Coke and F...
Diet Coke and Floozies's picture

Every year is 1984.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 12:04 | Link to Comment Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Great news, NO MORE "JOB LOCK" in USSA! You are not like you are job, you can quit you are job!

In other news, chocolate ration is increase from 5g per day to 20g per week.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 20:31 | Link to Comment X_mloclaM
X_mloclaM's picture

If they mention the nonseasonally adjusted households the BLS called / if they didnt seasonally adjust like that, they couldnt keep tapering, you know

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:32 | Link to Comment krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

I hear there's a shot for that.  Hopefully the needle is 9mm...

In other healthcare news: Jails in 6 states put inmates on Obamacare

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:35 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

But don't those inmates have to show their voter registration cards before getting healthcare?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 12:38 | Link to Comment Ballin D
Ballin D's picture

The article says theyre enrolling them before they are convicted.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 11:20 | Link to Comment The Dunce
The Dunce's picture

I don't trust Wall Street.  Nor do I trust my mother.  Bitches.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:23 | Link to Comment Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

I am going to buy some puts first thing this morning...i see no reason why anybody would want to be long going into this weekend. This morning bounce aint scaring me.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:29 | Link to Comment ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Hope you make a frigging mint.  

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:37 | Link to Comment Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

We just saw the pop...  And now the drop!

Looks like the market just hit up against the major channel line it broke below on Monday

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:30 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

You shouldn't do that unless you get unlimited mulligans...errr DKs....like Goldman.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 11:21 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I would be careful with that trade. Old Yeller testifies before CONgress next week. I've been buying the dip, but I would be cautious holding a position before then. One word from her and this market will scream higher.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:25 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

Courtesy of our Dear Leader, the Propaganda President!

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:26 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

If you look hard....you might find a smidgen of truth.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:26 | Link to Comment cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

G O -1984

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:24 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

We're being lied too?  < shocker >

History is very clear on one thing; roll the mother fucking guillotines, nothing changes otherwise.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:29 | Link to Comment ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Remember the preferred method of throwing the bums out is voting.  It is much more pleasant even for those who get throw out of office.

This BS needs to stop.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:39 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Why?  Do they suffer any real consequences like bankruptcy or a real decline in their current standard of living?  With all due respect Angie, pull your head out of your ass. Just serving a single term makes you set for life although it does seem that getting in on the IMF or UN scam is the real ticket.  Those who make justice impossible make a violent revolution unavoidable.

For the good of you and yours, I sincerely hope you hedge accordingly.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:41 | Link to Comment El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

What good does replacing one bum do when you get much of the same with another bum.  The candidates themselves are rigged.  When they're not rigged, they either become ineffective very quickly or they are rigged after they take office. 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:41 | Link to Comment Skin666
Skin666's picture

If you still vote, you're voting for your own enslavement.

 

If you want this BS to stop, stop fucking voting for it!

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 12:23 | Link to Comment SDShack
SDShack's picture

It doesn't matter who sits in the congressional chair anymore. The lobbyists write the bills. Cases in point... 0zer0care, Farm Bill, Amnesty etc. Term limits just means more lobbyist influence, if that's even possible. The most important elections in 2014 will be the primaries. It's the only hope of any changes, even minor ones happening. Every real constitutional candidate should be supported. But even that won't be enough at this point. Too often, even these people are corrupted as soon as they hit Wash DC. We have truly crossed the Rubicon. Real change will never happen until the masses are demonstrating in the streets. Today the only thing that will cause that is if you cut off their Free Govt Shit, so that will never happen. No, it will have to get so bad that the masses are literally starving in the streets before real change will occur. This shit is going to go on for years, probably decades and become unimaginably worse before it finally breaks.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:28 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"Establishment survey data have been revised as a result of the annual benchmarking process and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors..."

 

Yeah, and then BLS added:

  • 3 cups semisweet chocolate chips
  • 1 (14 ounce) can sweetened condensed milk
  • 1/4 cup butter
  • 1 cup chopped walnuts (optional)

Source:  http://allrecipes.com/recipe/fudge/

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:24 | Link to Comment sudzee
sudzee's picture

Yellenomics?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:25 | Link to Comment madbraz
madbraz's picture

Yeah right, like the extremely negative revisions in years past (2011, I believe) had any negative impact on the market back then.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:28 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

It was also officially reported that the late, great Kim Jong-IL recorded 11 holes-in-one in a single round of golf. 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 11:27 | Link to Comment TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Pretty amazing on a 9 hole eh?  Poor ball washers....

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 13:03 | Link to Comment Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

"Poor ball washers"

What does Obama have to do with this?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:29 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

One letter too many in B(L)S!

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:29 | Link to Comment medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

They must have forgotten to include forced labour in Gitmo.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:31 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

War is Peace , Freedom is Slavery, Ignorance is Strength , ... truth.... the truth is for suckers.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:50 | Link to Comment madcows
madcows's picture

what is truth

 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 11:33 | Link to Comment Diet Coke and F...
Diet Coke and Floozies's picture

The goddess I worship.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truth

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 12:29 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"truth" is whatever you make it, but knowledge is power.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:29 | Link to Comment Curt W
Curt W's picture

and the old numbers were promptly put in the memory hole, and off to the incinerator.  Thus a new version of history.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:33 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

This just in: the BLS just revised the Super Bowl.  Broncos won, 97-1.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:32 | Link to Comment LukeWorm
LukeWorm's picture

Please revise additional dollars in my bank account.

 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:42 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Just send me your account number and password and we'll take care of that pronto.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 12:26 | Link to Comment SDShack
SDShack's picture

Don't worry, MyRA will take care of those "additional" dollars in your account that you are so worried about....

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:32 | Link to Comment akarc
akarc's picture

" And so all key historic data - from GDP in early 2013 to jobs - has now been revised to reflect a more rosy economy, and instill consumers with even more confidence in hopes they will spend, spend, spend."

 

That assumes the "consumer" even looks at these numbers.  

The consumer, as a result of stock charged IRA gains, thinks things are getting better. They will not think differently until "After" the "event".  And as before they will cry and ask questions and it will start all over again.

To factor in what the average "consumer" thinks into anything is adding ignorance to the equation.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:32 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

the revsions make it look pretty

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:32 | Link to Comment replaceme
replaceme's picture

Everything is awesome!

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:40 | Link to Comment madbraz
madbraz's picture

Today's action reads more or less like a sick patient that goes to the doctor and finds out that he is going to die, but leaves the hospital happy because the doctor commented that he liked his new shirt.  

 

In other words, you have to be a lunatic to still believe in the plot being told.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:38 | Link to Comment optimator
optimator's picture

Potemkin village.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:45 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

aka Sochi

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:57 | Link to Comment ThirdCoastSurfer
ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

If you are at home taking care of your elderly parents or a disabled child or whatever, you are now considered employed though you likely earn no income or pay any taxes as a result of your labor of love. In fact, one would hope you receive some assistance from the government beyond a placard for parking. Welcome to the workforce! 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:47 | Link to Comment ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

I'd like to know what they learned to revise the numbers up 2k for the time frame January 1980.

 

Seriously.  What new information did they uncover?

 

Al least Jan 1939 did not change.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:46 | Link to Comment sangell
sangell's picture

And the Bureau of Labor Statistics has now determined that Mario Mendoza's career batting average was .381 and exceeded Ty Cobbs by 13.2 points after seasonal adjustments, infield fielding averages, opposing pitchers ERA numbers and an hedonic adjustment due to global warming that shows Mendoza was the greatest hitter of all time!

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:56 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Gotta be honest.  Watching things the past few days, I smell official panic.  There is some frantic contract slinging desperation going on to maintain various pricing levels, and repeated tests of those levels by the market, I have not seen before. 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:58 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

It's become my belief and has been for some time that this lieing by government officials will never change it's now systemic. No matter who is put in office by vote the system in place will not change. These career jobs and roles create such a bizarre reality that it no longer allows for the law makers to see the real economy. How can a representative even make a case for economic change of course when all these numbers are made up to save the status quo or administration.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 11:13 | Link to Comment El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

The status quo is already gone, and it is never coming back.  I suspect that those in power who understand this fear the day when a minimum number of people understand this. 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 11:25 | Link to Comment joego1
joego1's picture

Our government has a long history of lies as do most governments.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 11:17 | Link to Comment F.A. Hayek
F.A. Hayek's picture

Thank you for calling the ministry of truth

For maipulated economic figures, press 1

For NSA access to financial records, press 2

For intercepted web browsing history, press 3

For White House talking points, press 4

For wholesale orders of EBT an SNAP cards, press 5

To buy a Supreme Court decision, press 6

For all other matters, please stay on the line and an ACORN representative will be happy to assist you. Please note that your call will be recorded for quality control purposes.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 20:35 | Link to Comment X_mloclaM
X_mloclaM's picture

very funny MR.

 

BUT

 

you gotta read this

http://mises.org/journals/jls/12_2/12_2_6.pdf

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 11:26 | Link to Comment muleskinner
muleskinner's picture

Custer was annihilated, his worthless hide was probably pierced with dozens of arrows and later he was probably filleted.

Ain't no friggin' lie there, by God, I tell ya.

It's the truth and it remains the truth.

Probably a healthy warning too.

 

 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 12:29 | Link to Comment SDShack
SDShack's picture

If Custer was only a banker.... sigh.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 11:36 | Link to Comment M4570D0N
M4570D0N's picture

Well, I see someone finally upgraded to Excel 2013. Took you long enough. I don't know how you thought we were supposed to get our fill of chart porn with antiquated color palettes.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 11:58 | Link to Comment Wtfcity
Wtfcity's picture

Im so tired of this foreplay. Lets get it on for gods sake. There are not enough bunkers or private jets for these clowns. I think they know this and thats why all the chair shuffling behind the scenes. They know justice doesnt mean jail cells but comes from the barrel of a black rifle. Looking at comments on sites can give you a sample of what the average media obsessed american thinks. From reading comments on those main stream sites TPTB are in trouble. The matrix is quickly losing power and people are waking up. They are desperate and planning something BIG!!

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 13:00 | Link to Comment Luckhasit
Luckhasit's picture

Haha, I called it yesterday.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!