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Despite Dismal Jobs Report, "This" Is What Just Sent Equities Higher

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Ugly jobs report in which not even the spin brigade could find anything to cheer, after even the BLS said the atrocious December print was not due to the weather when it did not revise the December number? No worries: here is what the market is using as a goalseeked justification to send the futures off its post report plunge lows to a level higher than where it was before the report. See if you can spot it:

That's right - after years of ignoring the impact of the labor force participation rate, suddenly the market trading algos are so concerned about LFP they took the "surge" from the 35 year lows of 62.8% to 63.0% as the all clear signal that they can ignore all the other data in the NFP report and buy.

Another way of seeing this, is the number of people not in the labor force, which declined from an all time record 91,808 to 91,455 - just below the second highest ever.

Of course, both these trends will revert to their historic deteriorating progression, but for now it is all about finding the narrative that allows the market to explain why someone just reactivated the USDJPY 102 tractor beam which is sending everything soaring.

 

 


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Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:58 | Link to Comment HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

`Benign’ number lol http://hedge.ly/1nUTKFQ

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:00 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

See USD/TRY

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:03 | Link to Comment Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

The "surge" in the LFP rate is surely weather related. How did Mark zandi miss this? Because he is no more than a carnival barker.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:10 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Mark Zandi, Steve Liesman, Brian Wesbury & Barry "Butterbean" Ritholtz will be cnBS to explain how & why these numbers are actually a reflection of a robustly growing economy in 5...4....3...

Embrace the fraud.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:10 | Link to Comment Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

The central banks just dumped huge amounts into equities. See the movement in european markets. The PPT is alive and well.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:14 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

We shall go on to the end, we shall pump in France,
we shall pump on the seas and oceans,
we shall pump with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our market, whatever the cost may be,
we shall pump on the beaches,
we shall pump on the landing grounds,
we shall pump in the fields and in the streets,
we shall pump in the hills;
we shall never surrender...

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:21 | Link to Comment Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Since when did the markets care about real people on the streets? Markets are going up on dead cat bounce over the next few weeks. Bank on it!

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 11:40 | Link to Comment bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

pump pump pump - get it get it

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:47 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

They hit USD/TRY and VIX down, and the correlation algos went nuts buying everything.

IMHO. The ramp has nothing to do with LFP.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 13:01 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Well, the important thing is the stock market is nice and high again; so everything must be normal and good and I can go back t o sleep.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:14 | Link to Comment Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Looks like the PPT is going full blast with the futures pre-market now.

But how the hell can anybody expect equities to not sell off with shitty jobs numbers saying the ship is sinking fast!?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:25 | Link to Comment drendebe10
drendebe10's picture

Nah, the ship not be sinking. Just ask prez fudgepacker and he'll tell u everyting be hunky dory so he be going to play golf.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:05 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

LOL...353 long term unemployed found a job....and bullish !

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:04 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Bullshit, drop a few of those "1%-ers" in south central if you want to see them get "pummeled" motherfucker.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 13:34 | Link to Comment Nick Jihad
Nick Jihad's picture

Speaking of bullshit, I live in south-central Los Angeles. You appear to have obtained your knowledge of it, from hip-hop music videos. Suggest you use Detroit, Baltimore or Philly, to avoid sounding silly.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:17 | Link to Comment The Dunce
The Dunce's picture

LFP is rising?  Good news, indeed.  More foodstamps for me, bitches.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:02 | Link to Comment Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Gold should have had a $25 pop. Maybe Blythe's new desk is on the 30th floor by a window. 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:04 | Link to Comment Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Carmer is bullish on the number? Wow! BUY BUY BUY. He's been preparing the weather excuse for weeks

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:10 | Link to Comment SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

blythe?

blythe levett?

mussus danny masters?

*that* blythe?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/29/jpmorgan-commodities-history-i...

 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:11 | Link to Comment HyBrasilian
HyBrasilian's picture

It NEVER stops snowing on Wall St.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:19 | Link to Comment jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

"blight" the reptile. look at those shapeshifting eyes...

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:59 | Link to Comment depression
depression's picture

FOWARD Komrads !

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:59 | Link to Comment RebelDevil
RebelDevil's picture

But then what drives the JPYUSD rate?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:09 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The carry trade is what sets that rate. Traders borrow in Yen at 0% then convert them to dollars to buy bonds here and book the spread. As long as the exchange rate remains stable it's an easy trade.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:01 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

ZH/Tylers please just make a common thread section titled "Missed It By That Much"

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:00 | Link to Comment Jahbulon
Jahbulon's picture

Wow!  This is just odd......

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:00 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Everything is bullish. BTFD.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:03 | Link to Comment jtz5
jtz5's picture

No way...are you just picking any # that is going up and saying that is the new correlation as to why the market is going up?  Enough already.  TPTB want the market higher, that's it.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:03 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Didn't take long to get back to bad news is good news or doesn't matter.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:04 | Link to Comment orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

companies and the Fed HATE....ABHOR declines.....bear markets, shorts....are like vermin. 

 

It's more than obvious where we are headed but when AAPLs main concern is BUYING BACK SHARES TO SQUEEZE SHORTS....

 

IT'S A WTF MARKET INDEED.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:05 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Someone needs to inform the algos that there has been no extenstion to the extended ue benifits, so expect retail sales to continue their slide.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:03 | Link to Comment DebtSlaveZombie
DebtSlaveZombie's picture

HAHAHAHAHA!!! This market is a joke isnt it??  How can anyone seriously trade this market and not be on five different types of medication and not have a drinking problem and coke habit.  Unreal. 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:08 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

again...if that price of gold collapses then you'll really start to see some "fireworks."

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:18 | Link to Comment Nutflush60
Nutflush60's picture

I think intraday trading is OK. You are nuts though to be very long overnight, with China ready to implode at anytime.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 13:41 | Link to Comment Nick Jihad
Nick Jihad's picture

That makes sense, but it's odd that you don't see evidence that traders are cashing out their positions at the end of the session. Indeed, the traditional "3:30 ramp into the close" suggests that somebody out there is doing just that - paying a premium to be long overnight.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:03 | Link to Comment Nutflush60
Nutflush60's picture

Wow, futures at day high. Made some money pre-hours buying XIV on the dip, but left a lot on the table.

The amount of complacency on CNBC remains stunning. David Faber is the only non-cheerleader left.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:03 | Link to Comment Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

I think reason for ramp is taper off hope

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:21 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

I think the reason for the ramp is that is how they make money...big money. BTFD, buy before you miss out and when its going down, cut their throats. Makin money is all it is. I would assume for the markets to go up, someone must be buying...who? Big players with deep pockets that can seek out anything the claim to be a buying opportunity and then proceed to buy and push prices up, hoping to suck the muppets in, as always relying on their greed to over ride their rationality. They can turn around and do the opposite, touting something negative (which is never hard to do) and start selling, watching prices fall after they initiate the avalanche, only to become the buyer of last resort. When you hold most of the cards and own the casino, how can you possibly lose?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:05 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

i figured it was central printers just shorting yen.  afterall, the only thing that matters is destroying yen to boost stocks because artificial wealth is the only thing that matters in this ponzi world.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:05 | Link to Comment The Axe
The Axe's picture

true.....true.....why explain  it...its fucking broke

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:06 | Link to Comment Great Unwashed
Great Unwashed's picture

The news is smoke and doesn't matter. It never did.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:04 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Fun da mentals.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:06 | Link to Comment sudzee
sudzee's picture

No prob. Yellen loading up the broomstick for an (outright) OQe drop on wall street at 1:30.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:06 | Link to Comment orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

All due respect ZH.....but it doenst matter of an excuse.....let the programs run and SQUEEZE CITY......

 

SQUEEZE.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:04 | Link to Comment venturen
venturen's picture

Can't the FED just put them on the payroll as their pretend economy knows no bounds!

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:06 | Link to Comment Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

This means higher utility rates. Yay.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:08 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

Who needs reality? We have PRINTED prosperity now!

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:08 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Except the NSA numbers all degraded badly. 900,000 new unemployed ( NSA). Participation rate declined again even in the face of a declining workforce size.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:08 | Link to Comment Ness.
Ness.'s picture

The sheep at home don't pay attention to the details.  They'll see the DOW was up and consider all is well.  

Happy hour and purple hooter shooters for the bar... on me.

 

Pathetic.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:11 | Link to Comment Woodhippie
Woodhippie's picture

I'm gonna need directions.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:09 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Yeah, CNBC is running the "Labor force participation rate +0.2%" along with "Payroll earnings up 0.2%" more than the payrolls number; but they're not cheerleading - it's journalism.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:12 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

they're as surprised as anyone too.

they're long gold as well.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:11 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

Disaster is good now! I get it!

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:09 | Link to Comment mutty
mutty's picture

Dip Buyers and other value seeking robots are celebrating the HUGE uptick in labor force participation. Life is so good for those 3 (seasonally adjusted) people who reentered the labor force.

BTFD OMG

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:12 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

How can the participation rate rise with jobs produced fewer than population growth?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:16 | Link to Comment TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

Household survey is also done at the same time, so two different surveys.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:14 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

Here's my take:

Wall St will expect the Fed to UN-taper after this! Bubble reflated!

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:12 | Link to Comment madbraz
madbraz's picture

This is the strongest evidence ever of player(s) manipulating the stock market on the largest scale possible through the use of future markets.  

 

Get to work, FBI.  Get to work, SEC.   Slam dunk.

 

Ah, nevermind. 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:15 | Link to Comment the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

The sad thing is, when this thing finally falls apart and crashes down. They will already have come up with a someone else to blame for the crash. When the middle class losses 90% off their 401k's and their home values drop by 70% they will be in the streets with pitchforks. And the masters of the universe will already have a plan to be on their side to direct their anger at someone else. They will just have to direct the anger of the dumb animals, prety simple.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 11:02 | Link to Comment Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Ha-Ha...you said "Masters". 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Dimons jock
Dimons jock's picture

So why do I get depcaptated when I jump into the pool???

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:19 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

Inconceivable! 

Just like housing inventory stats.  6 million units artificially being held off the market to prop up prices and banks, so any slight sales uptick off the bottom is hailed as the second coming of a secular bull market in housing.  They got nuthin'.

 

 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:25 | Link to Comment medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Anyone remember Yazz and the Plastic Population?  The Only Way Is Up!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtKADQnjQmc

 

 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:27 | Link to Comment Frostfan1
Frostfan1's picture

I guess no one wants to point out that year over year the civilian noninstitutional population jumped by 2.3 million but the civilian labor force dropped by 240,000.   I guess it's still bullish that we have supposedly less available workers and we should just ignore that two million people are somehow excluded from being called unemployed in the  unemployment rate calculation.   I guess everyone jumping the borders and fences are 56 year olds collecting disability.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:28 | Link to Comment CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

They need to set up big screens TVs on every street corner so all those unemployed can watch the market.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:48 | Link to Comment glossolalia
glossolalia's picture

LOL I knew a green open today would Zero Hedgers in fits.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:57 | Link to Comment discopimp
Fri, 02/07/2014 - 12:30 | Link to Comment evernewecon
evernewecon's picture

 

 

 

I've heard of taking advantage of

adversity, even one self-created

and sold off to one's own customers,

but to imagine that U.S. monetary 

policy devoted to re-creating the

banks' mortgage bubble would actually

benefit from the Fukushima disaster

by enabling the dollar to withstand

that policy, while Beijing also

takes advantage of it so as to 

threaten invading the Senkaku 

Islands, does not represent my

idea of the cooperation of cultures

living lives defined by democratic 

process.   Cultures of life.

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