This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Europe Is Fixed: Spanish Yields Tumble To 8 Year Lows (Below US Treasuries)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Is it any wonder Mario Draghi didn't lift a quantitative-easing finger this week? Despite record unemployment, record (and disastrous youth unemployment), record suicide rates, record non-performing loans, and an inextricably-linked banking system facing $3 trillion in exposure to emerging markets... Spanish bond yields have collapsed to their lowest since 2006 (and Italian close behind). With an entirely broken transmission mechanism of monetary policy, it seems the "market" for European bonds knows no bounds as spreads on the riskiest sovereigns drop to pre-crisis levels and 10Y Spain yields are now lower than 30Y US Treasuries.

Europe must be fixed?

 

Spanish 10Y yields are now back below US 30Y yields for the first time in 4 years...

 

With the European banks holding the bulk of this crap and facing what many HOPE is a real stress test; we can only imagine the contagion should fears ever re-ignite - though we always have the magical OMT.

 

It seems much of this exuberance is the hope that a European think-tank expressed that March will see the ECB announce QE... as usual, any minute now.

 

Chart: Bloomberg

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:14 | 4412721 So Close
Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:16 | 4412734 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

The Fed just buys up everything that is about to collapse and PROBLEM FIXED.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:26 | 4412781 oleander garch
oleander garch's picture

"It's not you.  It's me."

 

   Euro said to Dollar.

 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 16:04 | 4412898 Four chan
Four chan's picture

if crazy is acting counter to reality, just how crazy can crazy become,

before the reality of the central money scam gets so out of hand, that reality forcably reasserts itself on the market?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 18:32 | 4413420 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

You can ignore reality but not its consequences.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 16:44 | 4413036 midtowng
midtowng's picture

This makes perfect sense...in crazyland.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 16:12 | 4412910 Wait What
Wait What's picture

+1000

"The Fed just buys up everything"

might be the most prescient thing i've read since 2009.

that's what's going to happen from here until the end. BOJ will buy ETFs, Fed will buy S&P futures, ECB will buy PIGS garbage, in the name  of 'financial stability'. because it's their 'mandate'. that's how ECB spun the court ruling, it's how they will spin every little hiccup in markets. their reach for power knows no bound when they can interpret the rules to suit their interests.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 16:25 | 4412979 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

Agreed. But can somebody help me understand how that's going to play out in the real world? I get the theory that we'll all lose confidence (I lost it quite a ways back). But who stands up points at the emperor? Anyone who issues debt is in on the racket, so don't expect government or business to stop dancing. What's the trigger going to be?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 19:07 | 4413595 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

Please, oh, please, someone answer this question.

Put another way, could this go on for decades yet? Forever? Why not?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 17:03 | 4413088 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

i thought it were the spanish public sector pension funds buying all the spanish iou's.

anyone know this run rate, and when they hypothetically were to run out of "good" assets to throw after "bad"?

 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:14 | 4412726 Flying Spaniard
Flying Spaniard's picture

Woohoo it was all just a bad dream /sarcasm

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:50 | 4412865 edotabin
edotabin's picture

Yes but it's recurring

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:13 | 4412729 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

and the only ones buying these shitbag bonds are the central banksters

 

happy ending anyone??

 

Fuck you Janet Rottenbox!!!!!

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:22 | 4412756 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Anything large enough to matter the Central Banks will back you up.

Too big to fail is alive and well.

If your a huge bank you want to extract income and profts and book losses. When the losses get big enough the Central Banks bail you out. Rinse and repeat.

 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:48 | 4412849 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

Returns reflect risk. Bailouts and Bail-ins! Bitchez.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:15 | 4412736 youngman
youngman's picture

amazing...now they need to give Jamie Diamond another raise.....

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:17 | 4412737 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

and why shouldnt they be at record lows?  afterall, there's the imaginary back stop in the OMT. 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:18 | 4412738 youngman
youngman's picture

Maybe they have a MYRA already

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:21 | 4412741 Major Major Major
Major Major Major's picture

Does Spain have any stolen gold left?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:27 | 4412776 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

You need to look up the history of the Spanish National Bank gold reserves; they sent them to Moscow during the spanish civil war; so the Nationalists wouldn't capture them. Stalin laughed out loud, and said, "they'll never see that gold again"; and they never did. Beyond help.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:42 | 4412839 Major Major Major
Major Major Major's picture

thank you for answering my rhetorical question.  truly appreciate the insight, though.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:45 | 4412838 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

Never had, Spanish armada ships with gold loot always had London as the final destination to repay debt.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:17 | 4412744 Silver Bullet
Silver Bullet's picture

Spanish and Italian banks must be gorging themselves on their own sovereign paper. Combined with everything else and no tangible capital, I'm sure this will end well.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:19 | 4412745 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

There isn't a damn thing that can be priced accurately in this centrally planned shit show. 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:24 | 4412763 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yep, now everyone needs to pay attention to the spice flows.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:19 | 4412747 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Try as I might I just can't see how this turns out well < smells like peak desperation >

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:19 | 4412751 max2205
max2205's picture

Pouring money into zafe investments is common during times of stress ...right

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:20 | 4412753 GVB
GVB's picture

Up until now. EM turmoil & US debt ceiling probably channels investors towards Europe I guess. Dumb fucks.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:21 | 4412759 RealityCheque
RealityCheque's picture

This is going to end so badly....

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:58 | 4412881 Wait What
Wait What's picture

what makes you think this is going to end? in our lifetimes?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:23 | 4412760 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

See, central planning works.  (Especially if one is made bankrupt, dissappeared, or suicided for saying otherwise)

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:23 | 4412761 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Just be patient and trust in our masters. They know what they are doing. Perhaps the past five+ years have been a little... artificial, but any minute now, all these shenanigans are going to pay off.

  • Natural, perpetual 3%+ YoY growth will return.
  • FF energy will once again be plentiful and fairly priced.
  • Revolutionary innovation in products and services will amaze the world.
  • 1 ton pickups will come standard with 1,000 HP engines and get 30 MPG highway.
  • 300 inch class TVs will hang on every wall.
  • The average home in the US will be over 12,000 sqr ft.

And if not, well, things will be fine for the top 20% anyway.

Any minute now.

 

 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 19:28 | 4413686 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Will Cosmo come up with new hot orgasm tricks?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:24 | 4412764 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The Central Banks are encouraging criminal behavior. They'll just bail you out if your big enough.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:26 | 4412787 The Axe
The Axe's picture

CRAZY SHIT

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:28 | 4412789 delivered
delivered's picture

I'm not sure what to even think anymore as the amount of money that's floating from the CB's to their proxy banks into this garbage must be much larger than anyone can imagine (to produce yields like these). The greatest experiment from the world's CB's over the past 100 years will surely not end well. But can anyone with half a brain outlast the dirtbag CBs and their endless manipulation of the markets? 

BTW and for everyone wondering about when hyper-inflation will set in, we've already got it - In equities, credit, and now across multiple emerging markets (from South America to Africa to Central Asia). This is by far the greatest economic war that has ever been fought between the CB's efforts to inflate the debt problems away and the incredible forces of debt deflation that have firmly taken hold. My money is on debt deflation but its still going to take a while for this finally gain the upper hand and force the CBs to throw in the towel.

Until then, everyone is just going to have to deal with these constant WTF moments but should remember one key fact. The more frequent the WTF moments and events occur, the closer the system is to finally breaking.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:28 | 4412790 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I wonder how they got those interest rates to do that; it' almost like a magic trick. I can't think of any way it makes any sense.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:32 | 4412800 Jason T
Jason T's picture

utterly confusing which makes for this year to be a wild one for sure.  

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 16:04 | 4412899 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

I was pessimistic on ZB`s some years ago that they just would have to stick together to devalue currencies consistently concurrently and the race to the bottom would be a smooth one and no one would really notice.

Than I got enlightened, there must me an inherent good to
make flocks and entities stick together . Common evil
as in the debasement of money will not qualify.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:35 | 4412814 khakuda
khakuda's picture

The most laughable part of this is that they believe they are doing the right thing by causing the most important prices in the market to be incorrect for years now.  These are supposedly bright economists telling us that the path to a better economy is by underpricing risk for years to come.

Here Ye, Here Ye:  Overpricing Stocks and bonds is the path to prosperity and optimal capital allocation in the economy!

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:36 | 4412825 eucalyptus
eucalyptus's picture

Corzine was right. His timing was wrong.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:47 | 4412853 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

which means he was wrong ...

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:41 | 4412831 sudzee
sudzee's picture

Super Mario now has the tools to "do whatever it takes' thx to Germany.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:50 | 4412855 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

I can't handle all this bullish news!  Jobs numbers come in way under expectations, spanish yeilds falling off a cliff, huge misses in earnings with downward guidance and warnings all around. 

 

Yellen will need to increase QE to at least 200 billion a month on her way to one trillion at this rate.

 

dow 36,000!

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 16:35 | 4412998 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

End of growth based thinking was never meant to be easy.

End of fiat money was hard enough, boating towards treasure
island seemed so easy.

Ancient disappeared system probably counted the shadows
of their pyramids towards growth, as software expenditure does in the US tomb proprietary GDP counting measure.

No real growth in GDP in a full hundred years in reflection of reduction of quality on all fronts : Architecture, Furniture, Textiles and anything in need of real craftsmanship.

Seriously, lost century for the objects that we try to show off with.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:49 | 4412860 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

How much of this crap is going into PIMCO Total Return?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 15:54 | 4412877 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

And here is the answer from Natixis;

Japan has recently expanded its holding of French and German bonds, but also shown an appetite for peripheral Euro bonds (esp. Spain).

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 16:10 | 4412919 delivered
delivered's picture

Anything to drive the Yen lower against the USD, Euro, and just about every other currency. Let's face it, Japan is engaging in a good old fashion price war just like Wal-Mart does with other retailers (but on a country level) to drive sales. Never mind the impact on the local retail infrastructure and economy as these parties will stop at nothing to win a price war. Japan is no different as they are looking to take market share from China in the US and Germany throughout Europe, on price alone. Use to be a battle between Wal-Mart, Amazon, Costco, and Target. Now its a battle between Japan, China, & others trying to export their way out of this mess.

I give them credit for at least making the effort and implementing the most aggressive QE every tried (on a % of GDP basis) but eventually, they will fail once the Yen completely crashes. Hard to believe some of the brightest financial minds in the world simply think resorting to and using the last available credit cards will solve the world's economic problems (i.e., the credit being extended by CB's through money printing) but desperate times call for desperate measures. 

Can't help but think that continuing to buy more insurance is the only prudent strategy left as the world becomes more leveraged and awash in CB cash but there's a fierce battle with gold right now at $1,270 an ounce. I believe this is a very sensitive "short" level so it most likely will not give up this level without an intense fight. Until then, will just keep buying insurance as the world economy becomes more and more crazy on an annual, no make that quarterly, no monthly, no weekly, actually daily, and now hourly basis. 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 16:03 | 4412894 Arthur
Arthur's picture

Making the bonds from Puerto Rico look like a steal.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 16:26 | 4412985 GooseShtepping Moron
GooseShtepping Moron's picture

I'm not sure it's such a stretch of the imagination, really, to think that Spain's chances of staying solvent for the next 10 years are just slightly greater than the US' chances of staying solvent for the next 30.

Apparently, in today's topsy-turvy world a libertarian is somebody who believes that the markets never get anything right.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 16:40 | 4413026 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Spanish 10yrs Yield with debt haircuts will reach more than 10 % and remember Catalonia will split from Spain 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 17:11 | 4413115 pashley1411
pashley1411's picture

Its just numbers, "0"'s and "1"'s.

I mean, really, for people who despise the price mechanism, and love central planning, putting the fix in for a country's credit market is just knocking down another bowling pin.   What could go wrong?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 18:36 | 4413442 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

The Fed just buys up everything"

Except gold.....

They can change the price tag but they can't change the value of all those assets they seek to manipulate one way or the other.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 18:57 | 4413532 falak pema
falak pema's picture

looks like Super Mario hits more home runs than Janet in this world series of who flung more dung games. 

A more plausible short term gambit could be a massive temporary move out of stocks into government bonds of EU pigsty markets; as temp safe haven from EM markets getting smoked by the Hole in the Wall gang. 

Hot money is just that : smoking hot.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!