Goldman's Payroll Postmortem: "Confusing", "Disappointing", "Little Negative Weather Impact"

Tyler Durden's picture

Just out from Goldman's Jan Hatzius

January Payrolls Disappoint, Stronger Household Survey

BOTTOM LINE: The January employment report contained a confusing set of data, as payroll job growth significantly disappointed, but the unemployment rate declined by one-tenth, reflecting large gains in household employment. Overall we see the report as slightly weaker than expected.

Nonfarm payroll employment rose a disappointing 113k in January (vs. consensus +180k). By industry, retail trade declined 13k (vs. +63k in December), while health and education services?normally a consistent support for headline job growth?declined for the second consecutive month (-6k). Construction employment, which declined 22k in December amid adverse weather, added 48k, suggesting little negative weather impact in the January report. Government employment fell 29k, the worst performance since October 2012, split between federal (-12k) and state and local (-17k). Payroll job growth in November and December was revised by a cumulative 34k, consistent with the general tendency for positive back-revisions in the January report. Over the past three months, payroll employment rose an average rate of 154k per month.

The January report also contained annual benchmark revisions to the establishment survey data, which increased the level of employment in March 2013 by 369k, compared with +345k in the preliminary estimate. However, the upward revision was mainly due to adding new categories of home health care workers under the scope of payroll employment.

The unemployment rate declined by one-tenth to 6.6% in January. Employment rose by 638k according to the household survey, while "payroll-consistent" employment?adjusting for definitional differences between the two surveys?rose by 901k. Labor force participation rose two-tenths to 63.0%, against expectations that the expiration of Emergency Unemployment Compensation benefits might lead some unemployed workers to stop reporting that they were actively seeking employment. The effect of new population controls accounted for only 22k of the rise in employment and did not affect the unemployment rate or the participation rate. The January report also showed a four-tenths decline in the broader “U6” underemployment rate to 12.7% as a result of a decline in the number of involuntary part-time workers.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% in January (vs. consensus +0.2%), and increased 1.9% over the past year (vs. consensus +1.8%). The average workweek remained unchanged at 34.4 hours (vs. consensus 34.4), consistent with little adverse weather impact in the report.

With payrolls, unemployment claims, consumer sentiment, and a number of business surveys in hand, our preliminary read on the January current activity indicator (CAI) is 2.7%, up from December’s 1.9%.

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PR Guy's picture

The wrong kind of snow on the line


Headbanger's picture

So the Vampire Squid is saying fuck no to un-taper!

Grande Tetons's picture

We are questioning the efficacy of the program.... equals....we have made enough money for now....time for some hookers and blow. 

kliguy38's picture

they will make their most money once they get FEAR into the market ...NOW is when they reap the wind and take the chips from the muppets dumb enough to buy the past BS........they deserve to get cleaned and I hope the boyz pick um clean........

Groundhog Day's picture

The squid and the Jp whale's have taken their positions already for the the next mega profit taking oppurtunity against their clients.  I mean really, how obvious does it have to be....some 90% of their retail muppets that are investing are fully invested in either a fund of fund program or managed money account....someone has to take the other side ob the bet.

I was in a JPM branch helping a friend not get duped into placing 500k in the hands of an inexperienced "Advisor".  The Advisor stated he was in the business over 20 years and showed the house fund of funds program.  After about 45 minutes of hearing this pitch on how great he and JPM's quant team is, the team that selects just the right mix of funds and when to make changes to them are, i interrupted him and asked 1 question.  I kept it simple so that even he could understand the question, I said the market is at all time highs and on a 5 run do you think it will continue?

His response:

The market has historically come down once the fed funds rate hit's about 5% so we have a long way to go before the market corrects least 2-3 years.  In the same breath he also stated that since he is big shot in the firm, he would get a heads up on when to shift clients out of stocks.

5% on fed feds? i said really....with a straight face he replied:  of course why not

we thanked him for his time and said we'd be back


TrumpXVI's picture

LARGE GAINS in household employment.

Thank God, finally, really good news.

Whoa Dammit's picture

Moar maids & landscapers !!!


ArkansasAngie's picture

Nope ... it was the magic pen

They just wrote in a different number

Don't want anybody to be able to compare one statistic with another

two plus two is whatever the heck they want it to be

NOTW777's picture

confusion often follows massive amounts of lying

oddjob's picture

Lying to the goyim is encouraged and rewarded.

Whoa Dammit's picture

But, but the jobless rate fell from 6.7% to 6.6%, spouts the MSM.

We have not only become a literally and figuratively jobless society, we have become a brainless one too.

fooshorter's picture

...Which is why they are doing the opposite of what this official decree says..

madbraz's picture

"Slightly weaker" 3 month average of 150K?  


150K does not equate the GDP growth of 3% everyone including Goldman promised for 2014.  It confirms GDP growth of less than 2%.

Iam Yue2's picture

Goldman speak;

". Overall we see the report as slightly weaker than expected."

Goldman Forecast;

"Accordingly, we expect next week’s economic data for January to look decent. Our preliminary forecast for January nonfarm payrolls is a 200,000 gain as the negative weather effect from December reverses and other parts of the report bounce back to trend. There is also a good chance of upward revisions to December."

Hatzius is the new Stolper.

Sufiy's picture

Smart money is selling - lets see the close today: PPT is busy to spin it out and holds cap on Gold below $1270 again.


Now let's listen to all excuses and polish the #taperpause on TWTR. Gold needs to close above $1270 to start the mother of short squeeze. Is this number bad enough to be "good" again to levitate the markets or we can move close to Thomas Demark 60% plunge of S&P 500? After everything what FED has done to 'save the economy" we can hardly see this as happening, expect the life support to be plugged in again.

kw2012's picture

If the US added 48,000 Construction jobs in January, then I'm the POTUS... which I'm not.

wearef_ckedwithnohope's picture

Fukc them.  The whole economy has been out of equilibrium since 2008 or before due to them and their kind..  Congress & the Prez, instead of establishing a CONTINUING series of jobs initiatives, abrogated its responsibilities and turned things over to the Fed to fix through QEs, Operation Twist, etc, etc.

This is the very worst thing they could have done.  The economy is 70% consumer driven.  In order for people to be consumers, they must have decent jobs and incomes to spend.  Jobs programs would be expensive in the short term, but pay off long term in the form of spending flowing into the economy.  Instead, the humongous amount of people "no longer participating in the labor force" invariably means that almost all are on public assistance (food stamps, disability, etc).  Also, forced early receipt of reduced SS instead of continuing to work f/t decreases their buying power.  This situation drains the budget and increases the deficit.

Relying on the Fed is wrong, ill thought out and incompetent.  These inept and bought politicians handed responsibility over to an organization which exists solely to serve the banks, upper echelon banksters and the top .05%.  The Fed's utterances about full employment being part of their dual mandate are bogus.  Their policies are in place to strengthen bank's balance sheets by buying their trash at full value and otherwise awarding them free money.  If they really cared about employment, the Fed would exert some control over what the banks do.  They would demand that free money flow into the economy with documentation.  They would not allow it to be used for foreign investment.  They would not allow it to be used for gambling or creating derivatives that are valueless to society but bonus-feeders to bankers.  Mal-investment and overvaluation of assets is all over the place.

Man,  I hope that the illusionary decrease in the unemployment rate does not result in an increase in interest rates.  If so - that's all she wrote.

Dr. Engali's picture

Would you like fries with your .99c pink slime burger?

disabledvet's picture

hard to get a recession in the coldest winter in forever while in the middle of the biggest energy boom in US history.

Those poll numbers don't lie however.
This ain't the "spread the wealth" recovery.

More like "spread the butter."

I really am fascinated with how the real estate "industry" is holding up here.
The Banks pulled out a "superkalifraglisticexpeolodocious" here...but they look to be the only one to have done that.

daemon's picture
 Goldman's Payroll Postmortem: "Confusing", "Disappointing", "Little Negative Weather Impact" ......... but don't worry ......  anyway we will make benefits ..... with your money.

starman's picture

I see, less jobs = lower unemployment, cause everything is lower?! all makes sence now. I shoulda known, honey moar colaid please!

X_mloclaM's picture

If they mention the nonseasonally adjusted households the BLS called / if they didnt seasonally adjust like that, they couldnt keep tapering, you know