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January Payolls Big Miss Again At 113K Below 180K Expected, December Unrevised

Tyler Durden's picture


So much for the hope of either a surge in January jobs, or a massive upward revision in the December print. Moments ago the January jobs number came out and at 113K, it was a huge miss to the expected 180K, but more importantly, the December number which was expected to be revised much higher was virtually unchanged at 75K, compared to 74K originally. The unemployment rate, which has become largely irrelevant, dipped to 6.6% from 6.7%, just so Obama can get the brownie points for fixing the economy. However, judging by the market reaction this is hardly what the traders think.

From the report:

Both the number of unemployed persons, at 10.2 million, and the unemployment rate, at 6.6 percent, changed little in January. Since October, the jobless rate has decreased by 0.6 percentage point. (See table A-1.)  (See the note and tables B and C for information about the effect of annual population adjustments to the household survey estimates.)


Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (6.2 percent), adult women (5.9 percent), teenagers (20.7 percent), whites (5.7 percent), blacks (12.1 percent), and Hispanics (8.4 percent) showed little change in January. The jobless rate for Asians was 4.8 percent (not seasonally adjusted), down by 1.7 percentage points over the year. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)


The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 3.6 million, declined by 232,000 in January. These individuals accounted for 35.8 percent of the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed has declined by 1.1 million over the year. (See table A-12.)


After accounting for the annual adjustment to the population controls, the civilian labor force rose by 499,000 in January, and the labor force participation rate edged up to 63.0 percent. Total employment, as measured by the household survey, increased by 616,000 over the month, and the employment-population ratio increased by 0.2 percentage point to 58.8 percent. (See table A-1. For additional information about the effects of the population adjustments, see table C.)


* * *


Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 113,000 in January. In 2013, employment growth averaged 194,000 per month. In January, job gains occurred in construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and mining. (See table B-1.)


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Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:36 | 4411188 Shocker
Shocker's picture

Still waiting on the recovery

Layoff / Closing List:


Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:38 | 4411201 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Because Obama.. Again..

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:45 | 4411242 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Expect Rosengren, Evans, Plosser with hints of "un-taper" talk all day, because this is what it sounds like, when doves cry...

Stock "market indexes" will be up 1% to 1.8% on the day.

The CFTC is ordering Blythe Masters' furniture & what-nots as we converse.

Embrace the fraud.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:47 | 4411260 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Fed's Rosengren Urges Patience in Cutting Stimulus

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:54 | 4411324 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

of all the futures markets in the last twenty minutes, the bond is most sane

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:47 | 4411266 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Not gonna happen cause the Federal Reserve is done playing the game with the Us Government cause the big banks see the ship is about to sink so why keep bailing??

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:44 | 4411252 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Missed it by that much...

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:47 | 4411264 booboo
booboo's picture

Jay the Carney tackled this issue,: "this is good news, with bammycare moar peeps have the freedom to choose not to work"
All hail the Queen

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:47 | 4411556 TeMpTeK
TeMpTeK's picture


Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:38 | 4411213 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

  they knew the number would suck. that's why they ran it yesterday

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:38 | 4411216 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture



At this pace, the unemployment rate will be 0% by the end of Obama's 2nd term.

There will only be 37 people working, but nobody will be looking for work; because nobody will want to work...


Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:44 | 4411254 machineh
machineh's picture

... and everyone will have Medicaid coverage and SNAP cards.

All that's missing is free beer and free love.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:42 | 4411250 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture


Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:44 | 4411256 Ponzi Pontiff
Ponzi Pontiff's picture

This is a neat way of estimating what the NFP print will be:

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:49 | 4411278 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

Don't mean shit!! They will and are putting the equity futures where they need them. The market would have gained 200 points on a better number, but instead we will have a slow move throughout the day to where they would have went anyway. Ben has his cake toooooooooooo! And, anyone who thought this might work out differently is a damn retard!!

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:14 | 4411431 The Dunce
Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:35 | 4411191 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture


Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:39 | 4411234 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

which weather?  ours or the rothschilds?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:43 | 4411241 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

i was kidding but for the brief second I watched


We all work outside, shit shuts down in winter. Or summer, or fall or spring.


Denial is a powerful....very powerful

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:48 | 4411284 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

goldman engineered the cold winter and then blamed it for the economy.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:43 | 4411239 asscannon101
asscannon101's picture

EXACTLY!! Who could have possibly known that it would be winter in January?!?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:35 | 4411193 GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

Paging Kevin Henry...

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:50 | 4411285 mr1963
mr1963's picture

Hunter Mahan, is that you? Here's a clue about golf, lining yourself up for 90 seconds, taking 6 practice swings, addressing the ball, deciding everything's not perfect, stopping and starting your "routine" all over, addressing the ball AGAIN, then being "disturbed" because someone somewhere made a "sound" then starting your "routine" all over again and finally pulling the shot dead left is not playing golf, it's teaching all the "amateurs" very bad habits and destroying the game. Either hit the f-in ball or hang up your spikes.

As for the jobs numbers, anyone expect anything different? At some point reality catches up with the bull crap the BLS spits out.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:37 | 4411196 I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture


Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:37 | 4411198 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Get to work old Yeller.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:38 | 4411225 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture


Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:40 | 4411231 oak
oak's picture

to work on more taper?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:36 | 4411199 One And Only
One And Only's picture

Victory for the bulls!

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:37 | 4411200 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

bad jobs.  OMT will never exist.  let the games begin.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:36 | 4411202 Cortez
Cortez's picture

Bullish.  Taper reduction rate off.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:36 | 4411203 PowerPlayer
PowerPlayer's picture

This is hillarious.  I guess the dumb money was buying yesterday.  

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:44 | 4411245 BandGap
BandGap's picture

I keep going back to the chart comparing/correlating 1928-30 to our current Dow numbers. If this correlation holds, as it has for the past year or so (strikingly so) we are in some deep shit fairly soon.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:52 | 4411313 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

Power player,


Dumb money was buying yesterday? You obviously don't have a clue how a bad jobs report is good for an additional 150 points on the dow TODAY! Watch and learn tourist!

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:36 | 4411204 Jlasoon
Jlasoon's picture

"Turn those machines back on"

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:36 | 4411205 Bosch
Bosch's picture

Time for Morons on Live From New York!  It's Jobs Friday: 

  • 8:28 am
  • Prediction: 205,000

Last month the number of jobs added came in far below expectations. I’ll admit I was bullish and didn’t see that coming.

This month, I’m still predicting that jobs added will come in above expectations. I’m going with 205K slightly above the 189K predicted by Dow Jones’ survey of economists.  

Maureen, how about finding a new gig, like bagging groceries?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:39 | 4411233 Cortez
Cortez's picture

Maureen has a career waiting for her in writing fiction.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:48 | 4411263 gafgroocK
gafgroocK's picture




It's a actual generated from a Fantasy Land called the BloombergBubble(tm).

Morons set loose on an Island, pumping a 'fearless leader' from a city on a hill whom they never met.

They are told that in order to maintain thier personal lifestyle, they are to put milk buckets over thier heads and talk into a microphone pumping bullshit for hours on end to a disappearing audience who are out gathering rope and building scaffolds with drop doors instead of listening to the pap.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:41 | 4411238 Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture

Is this something from TeeVeeLand? Moron says what?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:59 | 4411353 Bosch
Bosch's picture


Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:06 | 4411402 Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture

Oh, News Corp!

At least it's not TeeVee, eh?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:38 | 4411206 betterlockaway
betterlockaway's picture

This is more gooderer.  I mean cmon.  Lots of peeps have found freedom from their 'Job Lock".  Nancy Pelosi must be tickled pink! 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:38 | 4411207 texas sandman
texas sandman's picture

Question du joure....will JP Morgue fire the idiot that came up with 205, 000?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:38 | 4411221 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Not if he/she placed some cheep puts under the Dow at the same time.  ;)

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:57 | 4411344 texas sandman
texas sandman's picture

We didn't get 205, 000 if you add December and January. ...if I did my job that incompetently I'd be joining the first time claims brigade.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:36 | 4411208 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Ruh roh rhaggy...

(has Liesman excused himself from the set to clean the shart from his boxers?)

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:37 | 4411209 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Can they finally admit, Things are NOT getting better......or is ZeroHedge, the only place on Earth , that knows this !!!!

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:37 | 4411211 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

FED wants implosion, confirmed now. 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:37 | 4411212 trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

Mark Zandi:


Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:40 | 4411232 Cursive
Cursive's picture



Thank god ZH covers this crap and I don't have to watch Zandi, Cramer etc.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:45 | 4411261 Boston
Boston's picture

One month ago, Zandi was ranting and raving that the miss was an aberration, and will be completely revised upward next month (today) when the next jobs number will also rebound handsomely.

Wrong and wrong.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:00 | 4411371 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

Now the 'heads' are starting to chatter that the divergence in household to payroll surveys is getting significant and something is awry....expect to switch to the household survey in T minus 2 months....

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:37 | 4411214 Sufiy
Sufiy's picture

Huge Miss In Jobs Report: +113k Only - Sends Gold Sharply Higher 

  Now let's listen to all excuses and polish the #taperpause on TWTR. Gold needs to close above $1270 to start the mother of short squeeze.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:47 | 4411259 Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture

Didja see where Blythe Masters is gonna be on the CFTC? And you think gold @ 1270 will see the light of day?


Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:39 | 4411217 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

again...the question remains..."when does bad news no longer equal good news."

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:44 | 4411246 Cortez
Cortez's picture

When we get back to SPX 1800s.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:38 | 4411218 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Jan 2014 < Jan 2013 < Jan 2012


How I miss the good old days....

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:39 | 4411222 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture


Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:40 | 4411227 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Good thing this isn't the Price is Right.....they all over bid and would be losers. 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:40 | 4411228 wallunit
wallunit's picture

BTFD !!!!

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:38 | 4411229 gwar5
gwar5's picture

If this was horseshoes they'd have lost a long time ago. They'll move the stake, again.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:40 | 4411230 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

We'll know the numbers 1 hour in advance when the insides start to sell/buy...

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:44 | 4411244 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

1st time I have openly 'belly laughed' at CNBC today....did Joe Kernan throw Austan Goolsbee under the bus? They had a lovers spat and it looks like Kernan put AG in his place.....

When they start 'consuming' themselves....the end is near. Get the oil and kernels ready....we are going to need a lot of popcorn soon for this show!

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:41 | 4411240 Australian Economist
Australian Economist's picture

This is the third day in a row gold has spiked at this exact time for it to drift down over the next hour.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:51 | 4411247 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

6.6% unemployment rate, yeah right. Tell that to the 48 millionhouse holds on snap.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:42 | 4411248 The Axe
The Axe's picture

It does not matter...melt up in charge..New York Fed Tradong Desk will now start the slow VXX induced melt up  

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:43 | 4411251 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

On the downslope and the brakes are questionable

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:46 | 4411253 Eahudimac
Eahudimac's picture

And here is CNBC with the official explanation, as if we did not know this would be coming.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:46 | 4411255 ms8172
ms8172's picture


Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:48 | 4411269 Dimons jock
Dimons jock's picture

LOL, blaming it on the weather. This is reason why this country is a fucking joke (not in the haha way), but the we're so fucked way.

Next thing I'm waiting to hear is there was a solar flare back in Novemeber that caused this trend. They're serious ...

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:49 | 4411275 Paper CRUSHer
Paper CRUSHer's picture

Comical how paper gold still unable to clear the 1270 downward sloping resistance which if broken on the upside would trigger massive short covering.This has been the the fifth/sixth opportunity to do so since the market correction.

Hey Hey its the monkees!(hammering).........again.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:48 | 4411283 Racer
Racer's picture

Aaaaaand ..... bounce,

bad news, good news, who cares...

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:49 | 4411291 d edwards
d edwards's picture

It's the weather, you know. ;-)

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:51 | 4411292 Al Capowned
Al Capowned's picture

Un-taper will be the final nail in the coffin for any illusion that fiat is not just going to be printed into oblivion

Index's just want green these markets are a joke, Untaper yeller and show the world what a ponzi scheme this really is.




Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:51 | 4411293 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



This "news" will be faded by the open.  To me, the real issue is whether the manipulators will continue to sacrifice the EM in order to preserve the core (U.S.) as long as possible (until the globalists cry "uncle" and the coordinated printing resumes to pre-taper levels).  And the real question is who possesses what weight of gold?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:51 | 4411296 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

With all the bad weather Auto body jobs should have been like 300,000 alone...

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:50 | 4411303 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Why would anyone want to work or worse to be employed. That really sounds crazy to me.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:50 | 4411309 horot
horot's picture

Meanwhile Gold is unchanged. Now why am I not surprised?

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:50 | 4411310 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Not seasonally adjusted starting to catch up to Gallup's numbers. NSA unemployment rises to 7%. Not seasonally adjusted unemployed rises by almost 1 million. Participation rate of course degrades.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:53 | 4411314 DebtSlaveZombie
DebtSlaveZombie's picture

Meh... Not a big deal.  Seriously.  This means nothing.  Hardly anything to panic over.  These numbers are meaningless.  Just like the GDP numbers, Inflation rate, unemployment rate and every other governernment metric that is used.  The US is bleeding slowly and painfully.  Death of a thousand paper cuts.  On a long enough time line, we all go broke or die.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:53 | 4411319 stant
stant's picture

somebody hand out shovels!! try to look busy!

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:54 | 4411325 Dead Man Walking
Dead Man Walking's picture

I'm sorry, you're the perfect candidate, and we'd like to offer you the job, but it's just too cold outside, and besides, it's snowing.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:53 | 4411333 eucalyptus
eucalyptus's picture

when 1 in 6 working age males are not working, and that percentage skyrockets when you include the UNDERemployed.....there is no chance that 6.6% 'unemployment rate' is relevant in any way.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 09:56 | 4411342 NIETSNEREM
NIETSNEREM's picture

Wait, here it comes, I hear it now. "Bush's fault."

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:01 | 4411369 Dimons jock
Dimons jock's picture

Since most muppets will forgo food, water & clothing in bad weather, maybe they should poll liquor stores to see if that hampered business. God knows I hit the liquor store plenty when we had a few storms.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:06 | 4411408 venturen
venturen's picture

just think of all those people that will have time to rearrange their sock draw with their new free time.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:22 | 4411471 EastCoast90
EastCoast90's picture

If you re-arrange that 113k jobs number it's actually a robust 311k, BAM RECOVERY!!! 

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:23 | 4411481 semperfi
semperfi's picture

All just a huge stinking heap of bullshit engineered propaganda to influence the sheep according to the master script.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 10:23 | 4411487 F.A. Hayek
F.A. Hayek's picture

This is expected, it's only because we hired so many highly paid workers at Christmas time. Carry on.

Fri, 02/07/2014 - 14:06 | 4412408 CerpherJoe
CerpherJoe's picture

Jobs increased by 113,000 in January. In 2013, job growth averaged 194,000 per month.


So the Obama recovery is over. Hope it was good for you, too!

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