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Long-Term Charts 1: American Markets Since Independence

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Sometimes, perhaps all too often; investors, traders, economists, and mainstream media anchors miss the forest and see only the trees (growing to the sky or crashing to the floor). To provide some context on the markets, we present the first of three posts of long-term chart series (and by long-term we mean more than a few decades of well-chosen trends) - stock, bond, gold, commodity, and US Dollar prices for the last 240 years...

American Markets Since Independence

 

Stock Prices

 

Interest Rates

 

Commodity Prices

 

The Gold Price

 

The Crude Oil Price

 

The US Dollar

 

 

H/t @Macro_Tourist for these increble charts

 

Of course, as we have noted in the past, Nothing lasts forever... (especially in light of China's earlier comments )

 


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Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:18 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

In the long run we're all dead
In the short run, just screwed.

amazing how all the misery is a direct product of leadership

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:32 | Link to Comment InjectTheVenom
InjectTheVenom's picture

You didn't chart that !

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 21:16 | Link to Comment OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

These are terrific charts. Here is the real gem revealed. Take a look at the Coinage Act of 1792. There is a reason why they do not call it the Paper Act of 1792 and as far as I know it has not been repealed. Section 19 may be a call to all guillotine rollers:

 "Section 19.       And be it further enacted, That

Penalty on          if any of the gold or silver coins which

debasing the      shall be struck or coined at the said mint

coins.                shall be debased or made worse as to the

                         proportion of the fine gold or fine silver

                         therein contained, or shall be of less weight

                         or value than the same out to be pursuant to

                    the directions of this act, through the

                    default or with the connivance of any of the

                    officers or persons who shall be employed at

                    the said mint, for the purpose of profit or

                    gain, or otherwise with a fraudulent intent,

                    and if any of the said officers or persons

                    shall embezzle any of the metals which shall

                    at any time be committed to their charge for

                    the purpose of being coined, or any of the

                    coins which shall be struck or coined at the

                    said mint, every such officer or person who

                    shall commit any or either of the said

                    offenses, shall be deemed guilty of felony,

                    and shall suffer death."

 

 

It is time to stop the printing presses.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 21:23 | Link to Comment fijisailor
fijisailor's picture

Why didn't they mention paper money?

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 21:54 | Link to Comment OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

"Why didn't they mention paper money?"

Because the founders of this now lost Republic recognized that counterfeiting was so much an evil that they deemed it punishable only by death.

So, the question us slaves to the Lost Republic must now be deliberating outside of our spoon-fed and kid-glove managed circuses is:

Must we be lesser men than the founders of the greatest anamoly in 10,000 years of civilizations?

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 09:27 | Link to Comment Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

You're sounding pretty terroristic there, buddy.
I might have to dial 1-800-ALL-USSA. ( plus the $100 EBT card would be handy in meeting this months obamacare)

Forward

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 04:55 | Link to Comment Wile-E-Coyote
Wile-E-Coyote's picture

Pretty meaningless without adjustment for inflation.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 10:54 | Link to Comment TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

What about equity dividends? Isn't that a major stat really? 

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 13:40 | Link to Comment jaycephus
jaycephus's picture

Hmmm? I'm new here, so this might be sarcasm, but...

I'll just slide this out on the table:

" trying to control a variable you can’t measure (inflation) with a tool you don’t fully understand (money) in a complex system with hidden, unobservable and non-linear interrelationships (the economy) is a guaranteed way to ensure that most things which happen weren’t supposed to happen."

Point is, we can't truly, honestly produce an 'inflation' number (assuming you are talking about price increases due to an increase in the money supply). If you leave the money supply alone, or tie it directly to gold, which then only increases at the rate of gold production at the most, then you get trends like the so-called "Long Depression" in the chart above, where interest rates and commodities take a linear dive down, while the money supply is essentially flat. Price of gold was fixed since we were on a gold-standard then. But THAT so-called depression was nothing of the sort. Conversely, you can inflate the money supply, but if you inflate it by less than actual GDP growth, then commodity prices (all else remaining static or stable) would still trend down. You have introduced monetary inflation, but still haven't produced YOY price hikes. Yes the prices have been floated higher, but not enough to turn positive YOY. 

The INTERESTING comparison would be to find a long-term chart of CPI as measured by govt, with all their distortions of the last two decades included. Then compare that to the trend-line for commodity prices, where you show an average line that is flat up until 1940, and then hockey-sticks up at 45 degrees from 1940 to present. I'm pretty sure the govt CPI chart is significantly flatter than a hockey stick. The difference between those two charts is a rough indication of how much just the price increases due to monetary inflation differs from the govt propaganda to the reality. (Of course, THEN derive a deflator number from the inflation number suggested by the commodity chart above, and apply that to the raw GDP figures to come up with a corrected GDP chart for all of US history. You WILL see that we have been in recession for much longer periods than the govt officially recognizes, and we may be in a recession right now. Of course, it is also true that if you just use current govt. inflation-calculation methods and apply them to the past, then some recent past recessions actually greatly diminish or completely disappear due to the GDP deflators used in the past being much larger than what would have been calculated using current methods.

Sadly, most people don't realize that the natural price for most everything SHOULD have been falling all these years since 1940, absent monetary inflation, just like during the Long Depression, NOT rising. Heck, oil and gasoline are possibly cheaper right now in real terms than they were 30 and 50 years ago. Any monetary inflation, even that inflation that was designed to merely make commodity prices flat YOY (as opposed to naturally falling), is still THEFT OF PURCHASING POWER FROM ALL DOLLAR HOLDERS. The rise in purchasing power that should have naturally come to holders of dollars was rightfully theirs. Instead, we have a rape of purchasing power since 1940. Inflation as practiced today benefits leveraged bankers and traders, and the govt. so there should be natural scepticism when those groups are the ones telling us that inflation is GOOD.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 23:37 | Link to Comment Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

OC Sure

The law of the land.

Maybe we can rely on our "Brave Men and Women In Uniform" to enforce the law.

Oh, right, I forgot, they're fucking cowards.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 00:52 | Link to Comment OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

@ Seize Mars.

I detect your sarcasm and don't appreciate the smear that your sophistry seeks. 

However,  isn't it cowardly to hide precisely what it is you would like to say behind sarcasm?

Please be concise with your attack upon me or are you a fucking coward?

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 10:52 | Link to Comment Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

No genius, if I wanted to insult you I would. That wasn't my point.

My point was to say that I appreciated your post, it was good. the law says that counterfeiting is a capital crime. This is still the law of the land.

But we live in a world where the government breaks the law all day long, and we are powerless to stop it.

Meanwhile there is a culture of lionizing our "brave men and women in uniform," which I think is stupid. Following orders issued by obvious criminals is obviously wrong. They need to stop fighting wars for the convenience of an illegitimate government. But standing up, and refusing to go requires courage. They obviously have none.

That was my point, you see?

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 14:57 | Link to Comment OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

I see now, yes.

Thanks for the clarifcation and I apologize for the misunderstanding. 

Any offense to you on my part was directed because of my then wrong point of view. Please forgive me.  

 

"...we live in a world where the government breaks the law all day long, and we are powerless to stop it."

We are not powerless to stop it:

1. Petition for a redress of grievances.

2. Hurry the governments contradictions to their inevitable end so all the world can see them clearer.

3. ALWAYS tell two friends to tell two friends until they snap out of their life long indoctrinated hypnosis.

4. Remember that the darker the despotism grows then the brighter the Bill of Rights shine.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 18:48 | Link to Comment Drifter
Drifter's picture

You went from thin-skinned to delusional.  1, 3, and 4 are skittle-shitting unicorn lunacies.  2 is the only outcome, and the world won't just see it, they'll retaliate, and we problably won't survive it, and we deserve it for letting said criminal govt go far enough to turn the rest of the world against us.   Yes, they'll do what we won't do.  But we share in the punishment, as we rightfully should. 

2nd amendment isn't just a right.  It's an obligation too.  An obligation we have ignored. 

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 11:22 | Link to Comment viahj
viahj's picture

so you prefer a military coup rather than a populist revolution, otherwise you'd be doing something about it, right?

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 13:49 | Link to Comment Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

viahj

Non sequitur.

I would like it if the people in this country who take oaths to "defend the Constitution from enemies foreign and domestic" would actually start doing that. Is it too much to ask?

I got an email from Oath Keepers the other day: they're having a t-shirt sale. I thought, "what's next, a bake sale?" The PTB must be shaking in ther boots.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 18:51 | Link to Comment Drifter
Drifter's picture

Everybody in OathKeepers would lose their job if they actually kept their oath.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 23:39 | Link to Comment Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

LOL

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 16:45 | Link to Comment Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

That is surely a noteworthy historical quote, BUT, then too superficial a conclusion you drew OC Sure.

Money is based on measurement backed by murder.

As one goes back in time, the situation becomes relatively simpler. As we rush forward the situation becomes more hyper-complex and entangled. Since the vast majority of people LIVE WITHIN SYSTEMS THAT THEY TAKE FOR GRANTED, they are able to ignore the basic realities which underpin their situation. That is especially possible because of the way that social habits can simply cruise on an inertial autopilot through the generations, for most of the people who take their situation for granted, and operate within systems which they do not understand and do not want to understand.

Anyway, I too thought the charts in that article were terrifically interesting. The most remarkable was the interest rate chart, which demonstrated the greatest degree of arbitrary manipulation made possible by the power of central banks.

The power of central banks illustrates the way that human laws are connected to natural laws by the ability of violence to back up lies. Indeed, that is a hyper-complicated and convoluted tangle, especially since the most successful violence depends upon dishonesty to be successful. Thus, the power of central banks to be able to do astonishing things, like manipulate the interest rates for the whole system, was due to the history of being able to apply the methods of organized crime, in order to corrupt the government enough to create the runaway powers of central banks.

Money is primarily a symbol of human coercion, which can develop relative dynamic equilibria which permit that money to become a symbol of human cooperation in some circumstances. The runaway printing presses of paper fiat money were still backed by murder, through governmental power requiring payment of taxes in that deemed legal tender. However, of course, the printing presses were superseded by electronic fiat money frauds, still backed by the force of governments. In that context, it is nostalgic nonsense to advance the old-fashioned "solution" based on the notion that: "It is time to stop the printing presses."

Examples of the value of money being backed by murder, in the form of death penalties for counterfeiting, can be found from Ancient Greece to Early America, as well as many other times and places in between. Actually, that never stopped, and can never stop. Rather, what actually happened was the the best of the best death controls, in the form of subtle organized crime, were applied persistently and triumphantly by the international banksters, in order to get the government to legalize private banks making the public money supply out of nothing, as debts.

Money was still backed by murder. However, the most important form in which that murder manifested was through the assassination of politicians that could not be bribed or intimidated.  The current American central banking system, which became the most predominant particular central bank in the world, is due to the ways that money is backed by murder, becoming more sophisticated, so that the money system became sophisticated debt slavery, which ensnared the whole population.

However, the degree of historical success of warfare based on deceits, upon which was built financialization based on frauds, has been most successful in being able to brainwash almost everyone to believe in the biggest bullies' bullshit stories, and therefore, for the controlled opposition to propose bullshit "solutions" which continue to be based on the same old-fashioned false fundamental dichotomies, and their related impossible ideals, such as reactionary revolution recommendations that "It is time to stop the printing presses."

The deeper truth about early American money being measurement backed by murder actually represents that that is the universally necessary situation. It is impossible for money to ever be anything else than measurement backed by murder. The only better money requires better murder to back that up. Of course, that makes that problem become almost infinitely more difficult and dangerous than any facile notions about stopping the printing presses, or going back to gold and silver backed money.

What is most tragic is the degree of runaway disequilibria that now manifests through the monetary system, whereby the American military is engaged in death controls directed by the maximum possible deceits, which are backing up American money debt controls based on the maximum possible frauds. Therefore, those established systems have driven the debt slavery to generate numbers which are threatening to result in death insanities.

Anyway, the real moral to your quotation, OC Sure, is NOT that "it is time to stop the printing presses," (nor the electronic generation of fiat money) but rather, it should be time to understand the ways that the political economy operates within the human ecology, because the debt controls were always necessarily backed up by the death controls. However, the main theme of our times is using astonishingly improved special effects to tell the same old stupid stories. Therefore, we have globalized electronic fiat money frauds, backed by the threat of the force of weapons of mass destruction. Clearly, the value of the money is still backed up by murder, but on a scale that no individual could fully comprehend anymore. (That is even more emphatically the case due to the emergence of industrial ecologies, which are even more insanely disassociated from the currently operating political economy than the human ecology already was.)

That is the context in which I ubiquitously observe the various kinds of reactionary revolutionaries, who do good historical analysis, up to a point, but then collapse back to old-fashioned bullshit "solutions," as you did OC Sure, by pointing out the death penalty for counterfeiting the Early American public money supply, but then recommended that "It is time to stop the printing presses."

I have the same view towards those who recommend going back to gold and silver backed money as I do towards those who believe that cryptocurrencies are the solution. Neither address the realities of the necessarily existing deeper issues that money is backed by murder. All the various notions about going back to commodity backed money are non-starters unless murder was included in the basket of commodities. Similarly, crytocurrencies are actually a parasite on top of a parasite, which are even further removed from the realities that money is backed by murder, which they still depend upon taking for granted in order to be able to function.

The only genuine solutions are to perhaps develop better dynamic equilibria between the different systems of organized lies, operating organized robberies. The crucial problem that we are facing today is the paradox of the final failure from too much success by the international banksters being able to corrupt governments, so that the power to rob and kill provided by those governments backing up the money-as-debt systems have driven the resulting debt slavery numbers to become debt insanity numbers.

The only genuine solutions are better organized crime, because the only way that money exists is because measurement backed by murder exists. Those who propose "solutions" that there should not be any money at all are proposing even more bullshit than those who recommend going backwards to gold and silver backed money, or those who propose going forward to cryptocurrencies. Money must exist due to the basic nature of how minds work to make models of their world, with a model of themselves within their model of the world. Those minds must take measurements, and those measurements only have meaning if they are enforced, with murder being the bottom line of that enforcement.

American money began as measurement backed by murder, but then, that became more and more hyper-complicated and convoluted, as the best organized gangs of criminals were able to take over more and more control of the political processes, and thereby more and more legalize their own crimes. However, there are no real solutions to those problems to be found which are based on stopping money being measurement backed by murder.

The only good resolutions would require a series of intellectual scientific revolutions, beginning in the philosophy of science, to correct the errors made there due to the biggest bullies' bullshit deforming that to suit their interests and attitudes, which corrections could then form the basis to apply general energy systems concepts to politics, and especially to militarism. Nothing less than that could become theoretically workable, despite how practically impossible that appears to be at the present time.

As science and technology possibly continue to advance at an exponential rate, and perhaps continue to make a series of quantum leaps in their basic paradigms and potentials, the days of being able to still tell the same old stupid social stories, using way more fantastic special effects, are a limited and dwindling number. The basic realities continue being systems of organized lies, operating organized robberies, within which money is measurement backed by murder.

Those basic realities have been pumped up by technologies which have become trillions of times more capable and powerful. However, faced with the runaway problems of globalized electronic fiat money frauds, backed by atomic bombs, there are NO good solutions which can either go backwards, nor partially forwards, that fail to address the deeper dilemmas regarding that money is measurement backed by murder.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 21:37 | Link to Comment kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

"Leadership?!" Maybe if one aspires to be a sociopathic criminal.

 

"Leading right to the guillotine."

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:27 | Link to Comment wintermute
wintermute's picture

Something evil happened in 1913 to screw up a lot of good trends

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:49 | Link to Comment Paveway IV
Paveway IV's picture

The invention of the zipper in Hoboken, NJ? That wasn't evil at work - it was just some clever Swedish dude. 

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:56 | Link to Comment duncecap rack
duncecap rack's picture

Canadian dude

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 21:01 | Link to Comment mofreedom
mofreedom's picture

Stick to the booze.

What ever happened to Molson XXX?

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:56 | Link to Comment mofreedom
mofreedom's picture

Slack is Evil!!!

Button Fly all the Way!!!!!!

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:28 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Looks like something happened around 1970 or so. I wonder what? /sarc

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:30 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Tyler you're absolutely brilliant. Absolute perfection. Thanks for the plots.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:41 | Link to Comment jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

ditto.  how about housing?

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:44 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Indeed, Yen.  Great charts Tylers!

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:47 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  I hope you liQuidated those BTC fragments DCRB.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 21:51 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Nope!  My Au holdings are much greater than my BTC, so I can suffer a little "price action" without losing any sleep over it, LOL...

Education sometimes costs money!  But, if I understand BTC correctly (and that there are no backdoors in the encryption programs), I think that this will be a nice little speculation...!

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 22:21 | Link to Comment Prisoners_dilemna
Prisoners_dilemna's picture

We saw a severe rise in price up to ~$30/btc followe by a crash to $2/btc.   Then we saw it climb to $250 with a crash back to ummmmmm  ~$125 followed by a rise up to $1200.

 

"nice little speculation" is probably an understatement.  :)

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:30 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

those charts are great but wages were groing many of those years. now not so much. 

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:54 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Wages? Who needs wages? President Screw is taking care of my ex-middle class skinny white ass.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:54 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  What's this " Middle class"  you speak of DOC?

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 12:00 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

It's the meat and cheese in the great western panini.  

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 09:31 | Link to Comment Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

Wages are so joblocish.

Forward

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:35 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Good article on the Mr. and Mrs. Gox exchange and their alcoholic tech guy.

“Mt. Gox has built an exchange based on a hodgepodge of technologies that are really not suitable for running an exchange. And it’s being run by people (their only drunken tech - my words) who don’t really have experience building and operating scalable systems."

Better buy gold except for bitcoin speculation at this point.



Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:43 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Where's the(local) manufacturing overlay?

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:38 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Love the last chart.

The clcok is ticking for the reserve status of the U.S. Dollar.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:41 | Link to Comment GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Only one chart missing, oil pumped out of the ground: http://scimaps.org/maps/map/the_oil_age_world_oi_73/detail/

That one will have a major effect on all the others.

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:40 | Link to Comment jaycephus
jaycephus's picture

WOW, that chart is AMAZING. If only all charts would be drawn out to 2050, we'd be set for life!!!

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:46 | Link to Comment ArmyofOne
ArmyofOne's picture

If you like your charts you can keep it.  The only time people are concern with trends is when there on the right side of them other wise its off to watch Dancing with Stars.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:53 | Link to Comment homiegot
homiegot's picture

It always goes up in the long run.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 21:01 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Usa usa usa!

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 21:06 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   The United States has turned into a giant socialist European "Shit Hole!"   Putin is a Century ahead of the breakdown the Western Union is going to experience.

 

  I love my country, and hate it's lobyists!

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 21:16 | Link to Comment bobert
bobert's picture

I fear you may be correct Yen.

Legislation to prohibit lobbying would be nice albeit antithetical.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 21:21 | Link to Comment MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

Future of the US is a strongman who tolerates no dissent, stuffs his pockets until they can't carry anymore, funds the military and especially nuclear arms, and provides over a country that has a limited few thriving metropolitan areas while the rest of the country disintegrates and the average Russian continues to see a decline in their overall quality of life & even their expected life span?

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 08:08 | Link to Comment AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Don't need a strongman when you have moralistic one-party rule. Try getting a conseervative speaker at an Ivy League school.  Tyranny of the masses.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 21:27 | Link to Comment fijisailor
fijisailor's picture

I think being more adaptable like Zimbabwe is now is the way to go plus gold and silver money also.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 22:18 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

With you there Yen Cross.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 21:32 | Link to Comment RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Thanks for the charts!

Are these charts Inflation adjusted?

 

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 22:11 | Link to Comment rehypothecator
rehypothecator's picture

The charts are completely useless, because they aren't seasonally adjusted.  For the Kondratieff winter that will soon be upon us.  (And which Global Warming will not thaw.)   

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 04:33 | Link to Comment PADRAEG
PADRAEG's picture

no

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 01:05 | Link to Comment Drifter
Drifter's picture

Then they're worthless. 

Like the rest of the financial world ZH won't acknowledge the eroding value of the US dollar, rapidly eroding now, losing reserve status in the near future, then it really drops off a cliff and it's game over for America.

And like the rest of the financial world, ZH won't see it coming.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 04:33 | Link to Comment PADRAEG
PADRAEG's picture

no

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 21:18 | Link to Comment fijisailor
fijisailor's picture

For the huge majority of US history gold was money.  Since 1971 the country has been run by traitors intent on national destruction.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 16:06 | Link to Comment jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

Almost.....you need to step back 58 more years to find the source....1971 is a symptom, 1913 is the root cause.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 21:26 | Link to Comment kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

"What's 'printed' up, must come down."

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 04:39 | Link to Comment yt75
yt75's picture

Interesting.

But also interesting is the common myth and labelling of the first oil schock (in the crude oil price graph) :

first oil schock = Yom Kippour/Arab Embargo = geopolitical matter = nothing to do with geologic constraints.

 

When the first oil schock (defined as sudden barrel price rise) was much more the direct consequence of :

- US production peak in 1970

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/US_Oil_Production_and...

- Rebalance between oil majors and producing countries on the revenu percentages of each barrel (acceleration of the deals starting 1970, with Gadhafi pushing 50 50 for instance)

- Dropping of Bretton Woods in 1971 and associated $ devaluation

The "embargo" ? Lasted 3 or 4 months, from a few countries (not Iran, Shah period, not Iraq, never effective from KSA to the US), "5%" less barrels, almost a non event, but practical :

- for the US (or the “west” in general), it allowed to “hide” US peak and put the blame on the Arabs for the first oil shock price increase.
- for the Arab producing countries, it allowed to show the “Arab street” that they were “doing something” for the palestinians (or against Israel and allies..)

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 04:44 | Link to Comment yt75
yt75's picture

A bit more detailed summary about the first oil shock :

- end 1970 : US production peak, the energy crisis starts from there, with some heating fuel shortages for instance (some articles can be found on NYT archive on that)
- Nixon named James Akins to go check what is going on
- Akins goes around all US producers, saying this won't be communicated to the media, but needs to be known, national security question
- The results are bad : no additional capacity at all, production will only go down, the results are also presentede to the OECD
- The reserves of Alaska, North Sea, Gulf of Mexico, are known at that time, but to be developed the barrel price needs to be higher
- In parallel this is also the period of "rebalance" between oil majors and countries on each barrel revenus.
- So to be able to start Alaska, GOM, North Sea, and have some "outside OPEC" market share, the barrel price needs to go up (always good for oil majors anyway) and this is also US diplomacy strategy
- For instance Akins, then US ambassador in Saudi Arabia, is the one talking about $4 or $5 a barrel in an OAPEC meeting in Algiers in 1972
- Yom Kippur starts during an OPEC meeting in Vienna, which was about barrel revenus percentages, and barrel price rise.
- The declaration of the embargo pushes the barrel up on the spots markets (that just have been set up)
- But the embargo remains quite limited (not from Iran, not from Iraq, only towards a few countries)
- It remains fictiv from Saudi Arabia towards the US : tankers kept on going from KSA, through Barhain to make it more discrete, towards the US Army in Vietnam in particular.
- Akins is very clear about that in below documentary interviews (which unfortunately only exists in French and German to my knowledge, and interviews are voiced over) :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=fQJ-0jAr3LQ
For instance after 24:10, where he says that two senators were starting having rather "strong voices" about "doing something", he asked the permission to tell them what was going on, got it, told them, they shat up and there was never any leak. The first oil schock "episode" starts at 18:00

(the "embargo story" was in fact very "pratical", both for the US to "cover up" US peak towards US public opinion or western one in general, but also for major Arab producers to show "the arab street" that they were doing something for the Palestinians).

If this was a bit more known, maybe current propaganda "US energy boom, peak oil is dead, etc" would be a bit tougher to convey.

 

About Akins, see for instance :

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/26/AR201007...

And his key article in April 73 “The oil crisis : this time the wolf is here” :
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~twod/oil/NEW_SCHOOL_COURSE2005/articles/for_aff_aikins_oil_crisis_apr1973.pdf

The report he did for Nixon after US peak (and that was also presented to the OECD) is still classified to my knowledge. It would be interesting to know if it could be declassified now, isn’t there a 30 years limit or something for this ?
This report must clearly be the time when the peak oil concept became known in high(or some) political circles …

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 04:47 | Link to Comment Johnny Cocknballs
Sun, 02/09/2014 - 05:48 | Link to Comment maneco
maneco's picture

There is a big discrepancy between interest rates and commodity prices. Before the year 2000 a rising commodity market led generally to higher interest rates but ever since the bottom in commodites in 1999/2000 interest rates have continued to drop. This seems to be the Mother of All Manipulations and it also seems to coincide with the repeal of Glass-Steagall which has allowed commercial banks to be involved in trading and using OTC derivatives in all kinds of instrument like interest rate swaps, bond futures, swaptions, intererst rate futures etc...

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 07:35 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

The historicals about reserve currencies is interesting, but much has changed since the GBP was the reserve - technology, global integration

 

And the USD does not stand alone - it took is arithmetically integrated into other currencies including the GBP - details below.

http://bullandbearmash.com/about/usd/

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 09:33 | Link to Comment Liberty2012
Liberty2012's picture

Thank you! Wonderful charts.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 13:14 | Link to Comment Music101
Music101's picture

Check out KARL DENNINGER'S STOCK CHARTS -- MUST SEE!! Below:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqWIS0O2gIk

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!