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What Happened The Last Time The Unemployment Rate Dropped This Much

Tyler Durden's picture




 

One of the biggest accomplishments of the president, in his own words, is managing to push the official (U-3) unemployment rate, from its post-Lehman high of 10% hit in October 2009 to only 6.6% as of January 2014 as Friday's jobs report revealed. This rapid drop in unemployment - call it the "Obama Recovery" - caught none other than the Fed completely unaware, whose 6.5% unemployment rate tightening threshold is now in tatters, as it the credibility of the Fed's forward guidance as the Fed will have no choice but to scrap all unemployment QE ending, rate hiking "thresholds" at its next FOMC meeting.

So what happened to the unemployment rate that it dropped so fast it surprised and embarrassed even the "venerable" Federal Reserve, which had initially expected a 6.5% unemployment rate some time in 2015. To get the answer we go back in time to the last (and only previous) time when the US unemployment rate dropped from roughly 10%, which was in June 1983, to 6.6%, which took place three and half years later, in December 1986 - let's call it the "Reagan Recovery" in short.

Here is how the old normal compares to the "New Normal."

  • US unemployment dropped from 10.1% to 6.6% between June 1983 and December 1986: an interval of 43 months.
  • US unemployment dropped from 10.0% to 6.6% between October 2009 and January 2014: an interval of 52 months.

So far so good: one can expect the "Obama Recovery" from the Great Financial Crisis to take a little bit longer than "Reagan's."

But what about the internals. This is where things start getting weird.

First, we look at the number of actual jobs added (according to the Establishment survey) from the 10% point at the peak to the 6.6% at the bottom. What we find is that despite the US workforce being over 30% larger today than it was 28 years ago, it took far less actual jobs created to drop the unemployment rate by 3.4%. Specifically, while the "Reagan Recovery" resulted in the creation of 10.5 million jobs, the "Obama Recovery" achieved the same low unemployment rate with only 7.5 million jobs added.

 

The difference between the Old and New Normal is even more acute when one looks at the change in average monthly job gains over the "recovery" period: as noted, in 1986 the duration of the rate drop period was 43 months, where currently it has taken 52 months. This means that the Obama recovery has resulted in just 145K job additions on average per month while the unemployment rate has dipped from 10.0% to 6.6%, compared to the far more impressive 244K - and indicative of a real recovery - that marked the 1983-1986 period.

 

However, nowhere is the distinction more acute when comparing the two "recoveries", then when one looks at the underlying population and labor force trends.

First, here is what a normal recovery looks like: during the Reagan Years, the Civilian, Non-institutional population - or the total number of Americans eligible for work whether they are part of the labor force or not - increased by 7.4 million, while the labor force increased by 6.7 million - as close to a linear relationship as possible, and also a correlation which any rational person would expect.

So how about the Obama recovery: well, we find that between October 2009 and January 2014, the civilian, non-institutional population rose by 10.4 million, to be expected considering the far greater general population of the US - it is also a number which, on average, increases by about 230K or so every month. So what about the labor force? It is here that things get zany (as we predicted they would many years ago), because it is here that the Obama Recovery has somehow only managed to add a paltry 1.7 million people to the workforce: from 153.8 million to 155.5 million!

 

Of course, the above unleashes the avalanche of "demographic" excuses which we have all grown to know and laugh at, because when economists can't explain something, they promptly fall back to patently false "justifications" - recall that as we explained the collapse in the labor force has very little to do with demographics, something which the BLS itself thought as recently as 2004 when it projected a rising labor force participation into the coming years only to readjust it lower in the coming years.

The real reason for this ongoing collapse in the labor force, is the same that the CBO used to explain why - in politically correct terms - Obamacare will adversely impact the labor force over the next decade: Americans will have to earn less to get full coverage, or said otherwise, they are less incentivized to work more. This is precisely the US welfare state at work, and when one extends the Obamacare "rationale" one sees that the administration's core goal is to make increasingly more people reliant on handouts than on labor, as we explained in "When Work Is Punished: The Tragedy Of America's Welfare State" in which we showed why "for increasingly more in America, it is more lucrative to sit, do nothing, and collect various welfare entitlements, than to work" as can be seen in the "welfare cliff" charts below (source).

Alas, that is the real reason why the labor force collapse continues and will continue even as America enters its next recession. Or depression.

So what happens when one renormalizes the unemployment rate calculation and uses a 30 year average labor force participation rate as a constant instead of a variable to be plugged by the BLS to goalseek a desired result? This happens:

 

What the chart above shows is that the "real" unemployment rate in October 2009 was 11.2%. Where is it now? 11.1%.

And there is your "Obama Recovery", when stripped of all the fancy veneer and TOTUSed propaganda, right there.

 

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Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:14 | 4415646 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

The Winston Smith recovery.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:26 | 4415662 macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

Change you can believe in. Fundamentally transforming America.

 

Hell is empty and all the devils are here.

William Shakespeare

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:32 | 4415676 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Boris is frequent read "seasonally adjust" for mitigation of disastrous economic data. What is spice and herb for to do with bad economic data? Of course, elitist economist is always perpetual surprise, so maybe is only epicurean pallet for bland food?

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:42 | 4415689 Indian_Goldsmith
Indian_Goldsmith's picture

Excellent comparisons, Tylers. This sort of articles is why i come to zerohedge, instead of those shitty titty click-baity websites like Business Insider, CNBC, Marketwatch.

Besides the illuminating comments, of course.

Dont lower your standards boys!! Kudos!

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 18:32 | 4415821 HobbyFarmer
HobbyFarmer's picture

Thanks Tylers.  Now back to work to the rest of you!  We all have people to support.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 19:44 | 4415968 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

U6 is probably close to 18% right now.

Additionally, what needs to be emphasized is that it isn't just the (lack of) quantity of jobs gained, but the (lacking) quality of the jobs gained, in the last 5 years, where low wage (especially CPI adjusted), low benefit jobs have comprised te majority of employment "gains."

And the real kicker, which this essay does a good job of illustrating, is the collapse that has taken place in the labor force participation rate, which is just another tragedy of a faux-recovery built on reflation of asset classes due to idiotic fractional fiat reserve monetary policy, all covered up by a duplicitous press corps.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:05 | 4416021 Doña K
Doña K's picture

Statistics and lies.

The Green Bay Packers have 100% winning record when playing on a Thursday and it was either snowing or raining.

That's because they only played once under these conditions and they won. 

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:10 | 4416036 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

I hate purity. Hate goodness. I don't want virtue to exist anywhere. I want everyone corrupt.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:32 | 4416072 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

This is a good article. The LPR is the effect and not the cause. The cause is despotism: "I hate purity. Hate goodness. I don't want virtue to exist anywhere. I want everyone corrupt," said all despotic soulmates. Don't forget, the primary tool of modern despots is the printing press. The Fed is the head; wrestling tenacles will not do.

And here we are as Ben Franklin said was inevitable:

" ...there is no form of Government but what may be a blessing to the people if well administered, and believe farther that this is likely to be well administered for a course of years, and can only end in Despotism, as other forms have done before it, when the people shall become so corrupted as to need despotic Government, being incapable of any other." Speech at Constitutional Convention prior to signatures, Ben Franklin, 1787.

The people have become "so corrupted."

Now what?

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 22:39 | 4416365 Spanky
Spanky's picture

That's the million dollar question.

Either we will define Now what?

Or TPTB will define it.

Not many other options.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 22:42 | 4416378 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

FIRST:

Forget Red/Blue.

The FACTS about this administration are OVERWHELMINGLY, UNDENIABLY, STATISTICALLY.......unkind.

But his popularity remains (relatively) undamaged !

?????

 

 

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 02:18 | 4416769 JohnnyBriefcase
JohnnyBriefcase's picture

What if I told you that his popularity numbers were also fake?

 

Is that really such a stretch when they fudge ALL other numpers?!

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 10:16 | 4417003 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

son applied for moderate level job. was told there several hundred applicants and 100 had serious experience.  many with 10+ years.

so he passed phase one, was moved on to second interview and told he probably was in the top five (and getting a third interview).

for a $20 hour job? that used to hire entry level kids?  So in the meantime, just get free OBama shit???  (made in china shit???)

what recovery?  fuck you OBama, Bonher, Pelosi, Berquackee, Jamie, Blythe etc. This is the stuff revolutions are made of and

revenge is a bitch. 

Did you know ANY congresman with 2 years served (served??) gets $150,000/year and free medical/dental care for life????  How do i 

join this club? 

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 10:28 | 4417016 HeadintheGame
HeadintheGame's picture

Bump for Reality!

 

//

 

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 14:51 | 4417483 piker
piker's picture

How would they really compile popularity numbers? Has anyone here ever been asked their opinion? I know I haven't!

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 22:49 | 4416397 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

This is about them and us.  They are 300 families (or so).  We are of 300 million (or stronger).

Who is the underdog?

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 22:57 | 4416418 Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

Whoever doesn't have the bigger guns, drones, biological cocktails, photonic microprocessors, nanotechnology, RoboCop, and soundwave weaponry.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 23:04 | 4416431 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

They can only use that technology in cities; and where is the mass of educated people?

I mean really educated.  Not Harvard business degrees but real human prowess.

I don't need to run to Chicago to protest - I'll just put my wealth in silver coins, while they're cheap, anyways.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 00:11 | 4416610 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

They lie with the employment statistics to reduce the perceived workforce. The number is working against them now in case of QE. How will they distort the truth now?

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 00:24 | 4416636 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

They will let the currency continue to inflate.  And it isn't that they have a choice - it is inevitable.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 01:45 | 4416751 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

They plotted the unemployment curve for the next 7 years back in 09'...they can tell you right now where unemployment is going to be anytime over the next three years.  BWAAAHHAHHHAAHHHHAAAAHHAAHHAHAHAHA!

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 12:29 | 4417195 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

They'll lie their asses off about QE. Why wouldn't they?

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 22:57 | 4416419 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

@ Spanky, Re: now what?

Maybe it has been defined:

Amendment I
Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.

"The history of the present [politcal elite class] is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute tyranny over these states. To prove this, let facts be submitted to a candid world."

[List grievances here]

Link the petition to the manifesto of this site and have the 10s of thousands of readers sign it?

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 03:51 | 4419106 Spanky
Spanky's picture
Interesting idea… How about this OC Sure, next election walk into the voting booth and write "No Consent" on your ballot. Big bold letters. Tender it and walk out... Better than voting for Tweedle-Dum or Tweedle-Dee from the red & blue party. If enough folks do it, might just mean something...
Sun, 02/09/2014 - 10:26 | 4417017 -.-
-.-'s picture

First, here is what a normal recovery looks like: during the Reagan Years, the Civilian, Non-institutional population - or the total number of Americans eligible for work whether they are part of the labor force or not - increased by 7.4 million, while the labor force increased by 6.7 million - as close to a linear relationship as possible, and also a correlation which any rational person would expect.

So how about the Obama recovery: well, we find that between October 2009 and January 2014, the civilian, non-institutional population rose by 10.4 million, to be expected considering the far greater general population of the US - it is also a number which, on average, increases by about 230K or so every month. So what about the labor force? It is here that things get zany (as we predicted they would many years ago), because it is here that the Obama Recovery has somehow only managed to add a paltry 1.7 million people to the workforce: from 153.8 million to 155.5 million!

 

This...

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 11:27 | 4417081 -.-
-.-'s picture

I was very fotunate during my undergraduate studies in Austin, Texas to have a professor (English, by birth) who routinely expounded upon the falsehood of macrostatistics in the United States (and England) and, moreover, since I was also a mathematics student, he would speak to me about the ostensibility of statisics insofar that the govenment published and presented them to the proprietors of the public's papers.

Oh man, I can even recall how students (a good majority were the (un)fortunate scions of powerful international business moguls or politicians, but some were everyday do-gooder's paying for educaiton with debt whom just wanted to not hear something antithetical to their American Dream) would openly argue with the Liverpool professor, or, in other cases, which were the majority of American students in my class(es), they would say nothing, pack up their notebooks or laptops, and walk away.

It bothers me greatly (and it did then, too, but I hadn't the experience to grapple with the fight between my logical mind and my heart at that time) that Higher Education fosters the psychologies of Weakness, Apathy, Cupidity, Dependency, and Pretentiousness amongst both its faculty and student consituents. To stand out to or against such a riptide of a cultural current is to expect that your stance is to be deemed Failed, Intolerable, Conspiratorial, Distracting, Deviant, and, with respect to loans, a Poor Investment Vehicle. It is funny to think of this expensive, pedagogical undertaking--college--as something of Hayek's malinvestment.

But, hey, why bother lamenting or bitching about it all, right? Professors have to compete to be tenured, paid, and retired comfortably--right? Students have got to, well, your public school teacher and parents and guidance counselor said it: You just should do it or you are going to have to figure it out on your own in a world of uncertainty, assymmetry of arguably all information, and, to top it off, your family will be dissappointed with your decision. And hell, if you are going to be inheriting anything in excess of, say, ten thousand dollars, you might just be stuck doing what is told to be in line.

I suppose that some meaning behind that can be found in in Robert Zimmerman's own words: There is nothing more helpless than a rich man's son.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHGrWTmXK6w

Oh, and fuck Mr. Zimmerman too, I'll say that---he had some good chances, but he, like many a musician, artist, poet, painter, and producer became no more than images of a greater spectacle: a God damned Commercial, Mr. Dylan, and I'll say that on my own two feet looking at you squarely in the eyes. And it does pain me to know this! that I have to say that about your career in order to be as true to myself and others as the once-were-words that are in this song of yours. And this includes many other prominent figures too, so it ain't just all you Bob. I just hurt to say it to you because I was greatly helped during foster care having had listened to you on headphones in homes and places that were not mine for years. But, when I left foster care, I begin to see how you had also left a place in your past for a more comfortable future. Think about your own Song to Woody---of the hearts and the hands of the men who came with the dust and are gone in the wind. Ironically enough, death, itself, has been the grace to save many people from commericalism in your field of work. I don't even have to list those musicians who have died...

http://www.dasglueck.de/download/krishnamurti/JKrishnamurti_Education_an...

 

Break Yo' Self Bitch...

Cheers, to the Club, the Fight, to You All...


Sun, 02/09/2014 - 14:40 | 4417454 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

-.- ,  "You just should do it or you are going to have to figure it out on your own in a world of uncertainty,"

 

I didn't do it, and I believe I have figured it out, at least those things necessary for survival, in a world made mad by it's institutions. And I looked at every damned hard knock along the way as prepaid tuition.  

All free and clear now. Finally able to take time to see it all unfold as it is, one big deception. It's the Zen in it that keeps me interested now.

Thanks for the "crux."

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 22:04 | 4418623 ozzzo
ozzzo's picture

tldr

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 14:16 | 4417397 scrappy
Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:12 | 4416040 Atlas_shrugging
Atlas_shrugging's picture

In addition to the work-disincentives from the increasing welfare state, the other big issue is ZIRP's effects on older workers.  They aren't going to retire.  Ever.  Check your local law firm and count up all the 60-70yr old partners still kicking back and earning.  Why stop and open spots for younger lawyers (who needs them anyway but that's besides the point)?  If their retirement nest egg yields zero (or negative real), why try and live off of that?  A massive job killer for the next generation coming out of college.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 00:45 | 4416681 batterycharged
batterycharged's picture

Have any of you folks ever tried to apply for welfare?

Yeah, unemployment is high because of "the welfare state".

 

Fucking idiots. Hey, try and get some welfare then get back to me.

 

Has it ever dawned on you that there may be no jobs? Possibly?

There is no welfare state. There is no extended welfare, most states are pulling back on welfare and food stamps.

Get a FUCKING clue you FUCKING MORONS!!!!! There is NO WELFARE STATE unless you happen to be on WALL STREET SUCKING FROM THE FED TEET getting money from carry trades or getting a bank bailout.

YOu stupid fucking people make me nauseated.

 

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 02:06 | 4416756 macbone
macbone's picture

Here let me help you buckeroo. I live in Wash. Heights, NYC which is the second largest city in the Dominican Republic. For 12 years I have witnessed that at least 4 out of every 5 people in front of me on line in the grocery store uses the wic benefits card. In the warmer months there are booths on every major corner (one intersection, four corners = four booths) competing to sign up as many people as possible to every form of social welfare that the liberals have ever come up with. (The free phones are especially popular.)

So my advice to you dear batteryguy, is that the next time you go into the welfare office to try get some of the free shit bennys that suckers like me wind up paying for, you go in limping, put on a Spanish accent, and if you are too fair complected, try frizzing your hair out a bit and tell them that you are one of those black albino guys and that you suffer discrimination from all sides of the racial spectrum, They love shit like that. You'll get your Benny's in a couple of weeks, unless Obama gives you a job in his cabinet. If that doesn't work you can always put on a dress and wig and tell them you are aids infected tranny hooker. Best of luck and don't be afraid to throw a bitchfit. You seem pretty good at it already.

Sincerely, Francis Sawyers Lonely Ghost

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 15:25 | 4417574 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

Succinct, mac.

I'll just leave it there, 'till the hackles settle down.

 

 

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 06:10 | 4416760 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

I hear you on the Wall Street stuff, and at least a minority of posters here have also agreed that the racially-tinged opprobrium against welfare moms is a fantastic distraction for the theft, by orders of magnitude greater, committed by the megabanks in collusion with the megabank owned FRS.

But there is very much a welfare state - federally and at the local level.  And there are millions receiving public benefits from more than one program.  Not long ago I had to work on something that involved a woman who was on welfare and had been for more than 5 years, got a housing subsidy, SSDI for one kid, WIC benefits and other assistance like food stamps for all of her 5 kids {5 fathers}.  Sure, that's just anecdotal, but you can multiply it by several million across the country. 

I'm not against safety nets in some form, but it is axiomatic that they can serve as a disincentive to find work.

I've also been a registered rep for someone who claimed SSDI benefits, got them after an appeal, and used the lump sum for back benefits to pay off a new {2 year old} car.  I absolutely know this person had a work capacity - maybe not a 60 hour a week high stress gig, but something.  Instead, she has been able to maintain a lifestyle of driving around, smoking cigarettes, and visiting a handful of different doctors for, I wouldn't doubt, a handful of different scripts for oft-abused medications.

The "gap" that doesn't cover junk food, movies, and new clothes is going on credit cards which, I suspect, will eventually be discharged in bankruptcy because, hey, this person is unable to work!

 

Another example I've seen first hand is workers' comp programs...  only an idiot would oppose those programs, but from what I saw, there was a good amount of abuse, and it increased the further out from injury you went.  People get used to not working and find ways to sustain subjective complaints.  It is very hard to get those people off benefits, even when they clearly have a work capacity, and even when, for example, they would have almost certainly retired within the initial payment period anyway.

 

And all of us are paying for it.

Whatever my sympathies are for people who fall on hard times, and differences with orthodox libertarians about providing temporary safety nets, I have seen myself how such programs can foster dependency.  These programs cost in the tens of billions, and I'm not counting medicaid/medicare abuse, overmedication and overutilization. I also worked my ass off, for years, essentially doing nothing but working and studying 7 days a week, and when I started making some money, yeah, I kinda resented the immense amount of money, given my loans, the government suddenly took out of my paycheck.  I don't remember Uncle Sam bringing me coffee or doing my fuckin' laundry for me all those years.  So when he pisses it away on deadbeats, yeah, I find it to be stealing from me.

 

It's valid to say we should keep our eye on the Great Thieves before worrying about the petty ones, but if you're going to insult the intelligence of this crowd while distributing inanities, you might be happier over at Daily Kos.  They never give anyone credit for hard work there, either.

 

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 10:27 | 4417015 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

it's hard to believe government payout systems are corrupt

just more math to bring this place down faster

 

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 10:27 | 4417020 cherokeepilot
cherokeepilot's picture

Very well stated response to what was, most likely, a statement by one of the recipients of the monies given to the members of the FSA.  Thank you.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 06:42 | 4416913 JoBob
JoBob's picture

@batterycharged:  "...unless you happen to be on WALL STREET SUCKING FROM THE FED TEET ...

YOu stupid fucking people make me nauseated."

 

Please tell us stupid people what a "TEET" is and where on one's anatomy it might be found.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 12:09 | 4417160 -.-
-.-'s picture

Fucking idiots. Hey, try and get some welfare then get back to me

 

This...where to start? A suffering individual unable to process primarily two things concurrently: logic (his/her public education (like mine) did not afford for this study, nor history, etc.) and his/her emotions (his peers, parents, and further forefathers come from this same continuation of a culture that created the hitherto welfare system). He/She is claiming no jobs: I wonder if he has even tried, and I mean really tried (I just finished 6-months working under a Korean butcher making raw dog food with my begloved hands and, now, you guessed it, his wife has stage four cancer and he has apologized to me for having to leave me behind in Texas while he dutifully moves the operation to ME in order for his ailing wife to live near family---now I'm unemployed, but I am awaiting an interview with a local liquor store for a full-time retail position). 

You scared human being---life is an action not an answer...

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:44 | 4416099 Wait What
Wait What's picture

"Statistics and lies"

100% of states that legalized recreational use of marijuana housed a team that went to the super bowl the following season.

that's all the incetive most americans need to get on the weed wagon!

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 02:56 | 4416790 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

Washington and Colorado, yo.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 10:26 | 4417018 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

both teams knew how to take a hit

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:48 | 4416089 Wait What
Wait What's picture

U-6 is the 1st thing that came to mind as I read the comparisons. so I went over to FRED and it turns out, surprise, surprise, the data set only goes back to the mid-nineties. Around the time CPI went hedonic.

Govt officials have known we were on this deteriorating trajectory for a long time. Not until wage arbitrage completely disappears, and the average US standard of living is comparable to 2nd/3rd world, will people realize this was the game all along. most people don't know economics and its 'we are making america competitive again' philosophy. translation: weak currency, low wages, export oriented.

next time POTUS says "making america competitive" remember this is what he means.

ironically, the same people who he was basically telling 'your standard of living is going to deteriorate from here on out' voted for him... twice.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:51 | 4416115 Rafferty
Rafferty's picture

Serious question:  Why would 'they' want to make America weak?

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 21:24 | 4416171 Wait What
Wait What's picture

the logic comes from positive economics, not really thought of in terms of  'weak' or 'strong'. it's a question of efficiency. cut the fat off the wages and cost of doing business in the US and america becomes 'competitive'. that it causes a deterioration in standard of living is a by-product. a very real one. but that's what happens when you put wanna-be-engineers in charge of what real engineers would tell you is not an engineering problem.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 22:42 | 4416374 nmewn
nmewn's picture

An old engineering joke, I'll breviate it.

A retired engineer was called in after many wannabe engineers could not find the problem that had shut down production in a multi billion dollar enterprise. The retired engineer came in and studied the situation for a day and at the end of the day, produced a piece of chalk and marked the faulty component with an X. The component was replaced and the multi billion dollar enterprise was up & running again.

A month later a flustered CFO walked into the CEO's office and delivered an invoice for services rendered, it read simply: "One day = $500.00. Chalk = $500,000."

The CEO went ballistic (of course?) and called up the retired engineer. "WTF is this invoice about?!?!" he screamed into the phone. The engineer replied, the $500.00 is the cost of me being there, the $500,000 chalk is the cost of me putting the X exactly where it needed to go.

The invoice was paid in full ;-)

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 08:58 | 4416962 Artifice
Artifice's picture

This was based on a true story, though the names escape me - something to do with the early days of General Electric. You know the gist but I'll summarise :

 

One of the transformers they were using was producing excess noise and operating below spec. They called in a specialist, (insert name here). He only asked for a chair, which was provided. He sat in the chair next to the transformer for a while before moving it to a different position, sat a while longer, moved again, etc. He was there for the better part of a day, then returned to the plant manager and indicated a specific coil to be replaced. The part was replaced and the transformer worked perfectly. Later, the manager received a bill for (again, lost but maybe/assuming $2,000) - It was invoiced as such :

 

Chalk : $1.00

Knowing where to put it : $1999.00

 

The bill was, as per the joke, paid. I wish I could find a reference for this, it's pure gold. Truth can be stranger than fiction :)

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 11:20 | 4417071 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

I've heard it as a generator stator at GE Schenectady.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 10:38 | 4417028 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

I heard kind of a reverse of that story recently. And it's true. (I apologize for its Seattleness). A computer systems guy I know was buying a Starbucks and he watched the people paying with the new tricks on their cellphone. He got curious and then noticed something and wrote an email to one of their systems person telling them it had a serious vulnerability. THey of course told him he's an idiot and to screw off. About two weeks later he got a phone call and it was their head system guy kissing his ass and saying other things men don't normally say to each other. They now put 1000 credit on his cell phone every month. I told him it was a neat story but asked him why he wasn't reacting like Kramer in that Seinfeld episode     

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 02:55 | 4416791 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

global currency/monetary authority.

But, I think it's more bout wealth extraction

Greed is good, until you're a victim of it.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 11:33 | 4417076 HungryPorkChop
HungryPorkChop's picture

@Wait What:  Have you ever considered they are using computer programs on economic modeling to try and force the economy into adjusting itself.  I'm sure their economic model would state if unemployment is under 6.0%, housing prices are increasing and gold is under $800 and stock market is over 17,000 then the recovery is in full swing.  Come hell or high water this is what they are trying to do?  The obvious glaring error is they're using manipulated or highly massaged data plus creating distortions in the marketplace by pumping up some asset prices while attacking others such as gold.  Then when the model gets near a breaking point they'll increase QE or do some type of stimulus package.  The other part seems to be insiders with information on this model are becoming filthy rich as the middle class with no inside information crumbles. 

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 20:16 | 4418381 Wait What
Wait What's picture

that they are trying 'to force the economy into adjusting itself' is the point. it's a conscious decision to make america competitive by speeding the adjustment. but adjustment causes dislocation, dislocation causes social turmoil, turmoil causes... etc. etc. so they try to mitigate it through social welfare programs, SNAP/Unempl/Obamacare.

and yes, 'manipulated prices' are the reason they don't see the cracks that are building, why they will never see crises in advance. and why they keep having to restart QE in larger amounts every time it fails to achieve their goals. "they know the price of everything and the value of nothing"

as for 'insider information', i think about it in terms of information channels, asymmetric access to information. the rain-makers telegraph their intent to their circle of influence (21 primary dealers?), which spread it to their (still small) network, so on and so forth, until it becomes popular knowledge. this is nothing more than information arbitrage. 1st mover maximizes profit. 'last guy to know, 12th man on the team' is usually joesixpack. if this is how it works, it's easy to understand why guys like Ed Snowden and Brad Manning are such a thorn in the gov't's side. they spread information down the food chain ahead of schedule, which ruins the whole game.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 12:44 | 4417217 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

I remember reading serious economic reports 15 years ago that said if you factor out the healthcare jobs created the economy was not growing at all. So here we are now and the aca is essentially taking the only dynamic sector of the economy and moving it under government control. Essentialy killling the last chicken capable of laying golden eggs. Your government cannot run and competently manage 1/6 of the economy. Just won't happen. Too much money passing through too many hands before it turns to healthcare for the masses. This economy is dead and it will not revive until massive and painful changes are implemented. Changes for the ruling class that is, the masses will always be here. Also, ultimately we will have to decide whether we want employment for a large sector of the population or the newest technology. We're at the point now and actually have been for a while where technology is killing jobs. Would you rather have people employed knowing full well that there is a technology available that could do the work they do?

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 18:42 | 4415835 Pooper Popper
Pooper Popper's picture

FUCK cnbc,they suck vallerie jarret dick!

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:52 | 4416123 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

CNBC will have to line up right behind Barack Hussein Obama and wait their turn. (He was there first and he's still at it.)

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 10:50 | 4417042 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Well that explains the sucking sound, seeing as how the jobs have been gone for a while now.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:33 | 4415679 max2205
max2205's picture

What difference does it really make.....

 

Those jobs paid 25k if you were lucky and a house cost 80k with a 12% mortgage

I'll take 1986 Alex

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 19:58 | 4415990 mofreedom
mofreedom's picture

You could smoke in a mall, in a restaurant, in a bar, on a plane, most cars still had carburetors and easy to fix, ethanol was mostly just for booze, coffee was bought in a big tin can, bread cost less than $1.00, not many knew what a Bush really was.

What is 1986?  Be more specific.  What was freedom?

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 12:45 | 4417228 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

I so want to rent a billboard locally next to the interstate with the message. "Hillary '16 After all what difference could it make?"

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:33 | 4415683 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

If the President is most proud of this "accomplishment" he is either:

 

a)  clueless as to the drivers of this rate reduction or,

b)  a liar of the first order

 

either way, not good for America.   what a shame.  President of the USA....and one of the above.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 19:13 | 4415899 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Since the President is most proud of this "accomplishment" he is BOTH:

 

a)  clueless as to the drivers of this rate reduction AND,

b)  a liar of the first order

 

Not good for America.   what a shame.  President of the USA....and BOTH of the above.

 

FIFY

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 21:06 | 4416144 Big Brother
Big Brother's picture

I keep returning to this exact same conundrum.  I have concluded that he is more clueless and his advisors more liars.  I don't think he fully understands the ramifications of the initiatives he recites as flashed across his teleprompters.  Me personally, I couldn't read his speeches with a straight face. 

I will also echo that this was an especially concise, poignant article submitted by Zerohedge. 

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 22:51 | 4416410 Spanky
Spanky's picture

Might want to check who those advisors are (on both red and blue teams). Note they are all old Washington hands, no matter which team you look at, and that you can track them thru previous administrations... This is a mere glimpse of the power behind the throne. Where do they spend their off-time? Whom pays for it?

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 16:44 | 4417783 object_orient
object_orient's picture

And one of the reasons term limits won't solve anything. Newbies are even more reliant on the staffers/advisors/interns that have no such limits.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 01:10 | 4416712 macbone
macbone's picture

What's even more amazing than Blobamas incessant lying, and his failure to offer any real attempt at reform, is the fact that he receives next to no criticism, or even just honest analysis from at least 7/8's of the media elite.

Think about that for a moment. He bills himself as a reformer and the few modest reforms he does ram through actually make things worse, and he barely receives any criticism at all, even from Fox. Any other politician, especially a Republican would be facing a constant barrage of hostility, criticism, contempt and disdain from the entire media, academic and cultural elite. Now why is that? The answer is obvious. He is a half black democrat whose only consistent philosophy is political correctness and even more so, "affirmative action."

To ignore the fact that this is the dominant mentality of the vast majority of the media elites is to remain willfully ignorant, morally obtuse and deliberately blind. And why deliberate, because most people, specifically white people are cringing cowards in the face of 40 years of politically correct white guilt politics as practiced by democrats and the white liberal "cultural elites". These degenerate slime have been practicing psychological warfare by means of every cultural institution they have managed to worm their way into for the last 50 years. And face it, they have succeeded in poisoning the well to a point that Orwell would have trouble analyzing it, though "Animal Farm" comes close.

Two, three, maybe five years from now when the economy of the entire planet collapses in a week that will never be forgotten, it will have been done because of affirmative action, white guilt and political correctness. And the truly sick thing is even then the vast majority of people will not have the guts to see this, forget about say it out loud. It is hard to put into language how much hatred I have for white "liberals." Impossible even. And spare me the red team/blue team speech please. You' re just fucking wrong. Completely, obviously, blatantly...

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:05 | 4416027 Cattender
Cattender's picture

Change the Fucking Morons can Believe in..

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 19:21 | 4415930 Van Halen
Van Halen's picture

I just got off the phone with the White House. They don't understand why Zerohedge keeps making up stories that... simply aren't true. They said the employment situation is improving and things are better than ever! We've rounded the corner and recovery is ahead. Forward!

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 22:10 | 4416290 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

This article proves that the current economic recovery is both genuine and strong. It says a lot when the only way ZH can smear the Obama recovery is by resorting to the crutch of mathematics.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:16 | 4415648 slotmouth
slotmouth's picture

I can't wait until we enter another recession and the unemployment rate keeps falling.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:20 | 4415654 bearwinkle
bearwinkle's picture

When did we actually leave the last recession?

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:27 | 4415666 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

When Obie said so on teevee.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:39 | 4415690 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Recession is official end on 9 of March, 2009 ("seasonally adjust") when Obama is officially announce stock market (DJIA) is "bottom out". Simultaneous, Ben Dover Bernanke is announce QE1, historic purchase of $1T of US Sovereign Bond for retain on Federal Reserve Balance Sheet. Prior to 2009, Fed Balance Sheet is hold $800B of $USD (no Government Bond), so quick calculate is by March 2010, Balance Sheet is double. There you are go, recession is not only over, but economy is double. No, more than is double... 225%.

When corrupt elected official is invite greedy crony capitalist for tryst in Lincoln Bedroom, exchange of infectious bodily fluid, amazing is impact on economy!

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 07:30 | 4416923 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Since when is there an economic state called "RECOVERY" that lasts for seven years and no end in sight. There is no plant that I know of that doesn't grow and just has "GREEN SHOOTS" year after year, season after season.

 

I hear the word RECOVERY and my mind glazes over. Now when I hear GREEN SHOOTS I think of a mouldy rotten old stump.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 19:24 | 4415934 Van Halen
Van Halen's picture

Bearwinkle, we left the last recession the moment Obama came riding in on a unicorn amidst a light rain of Skittles, sprinkling hope and change fairydust everywhere.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:20 | 4415655 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Enter another recession?  If you were to do the same kind of analysis, but with U-6 instead of U-3, I suspect that you'd find that the real unemployment rate is somewhere between 17% and 21%.  We're in a depression that has been covered over with lies and paper. 

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 18:05 | 4415709 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

For sure, El Vaquero, for many millions of people, "We're in a depression that has been covered over with lies and paper," BECAUSE when economists can't explain something, they promptly fall back to patently false "justifications!"

The social polarization keeps on getting more and more extreme, with the top 10% getting wealthier, while the topmost 0.1% and above gets fantastically wealthier, while the middle is being wiped out, ... Yet, so far, the bottom has not be allowed to fall to the bottom.  If, or when, the bottom falls out of the bottom, then the middle too will then drop like a stone, and the results could become democidal martial law being imposed, since there can never be any return to a growing economy, with more employment, because the fundamentals for such a recovery would have to change the fundamental financial system based on debt slavery, which has generated numbers which have become the size of runaway debt insanities.

Those who can assert their ownership over the resources and the machines are doing better and better. However, those who do not have effective claims to own those resources, or the machines, are going to be left behind, faster and worse, in the foreseeable future. There is NOTHING within the currently entrenched established systems which could ever provide any "recovery" for the vast majority of people. For those people it is already a depression. The overall AVERAGES include the few who are getting wealthier, whose lives are nothing like the vast majority who are getting poorer. Those who are hovering near the bottom are still being prevented from hitting bottom. However, there is nothing that they would be able to do to prevent themselves from sinking, if their supports stopped being there. Meanwhile, the ONLY apparent ways that the international interests that dominate the government of the USA seem to be preparing for that runaway social polarization is to impose martial law. The real statistics for the vast majority of people trapped into the middle of the social polarization processes are probably looking at that becoming way more extreme (and for the bottom to eventually fall out, such as when the US Dollar loses its status as the global reserve currency.)  The vast majority of Americans are entering a real depression, far worse for most of them than what happened during the 1930s.

THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE THE LIMITS TO GROWTH, WITH THE LIMITS TO THE GROWTH OF OVERALL DEBTS, INSIDE A MONEY-AS-DEBT SYSTEM, BEING THE LEADING SYMBOL OF THE REST OF THE REAL LIMITS TO GROWTH. Meanwhile, those FUNDAMENTALS are deliberately ignored, BECAUSE when economists can't explain something, they promptly fall back to patently false "justifications!"

No mainstream economists have jobs unless they tacitly agree to deliberately ignore the real roles of the banksters within the economy, which amounts to deliberately ignoring that the real economy operates according to the principles and methods of triumphant organized crime, because the real political economy is inside the real human ecology. Mainstream economists would not be employed unless they tacitly agreed to deliberately ignore the ecology of the real environment, that their symbolic mathemagical accounting systems operate within, since the real systems are due to the banksters' triumphantly corrupting the government to become inconceivably crazy. Since money is measurement backed by murder, but the murder aspects of that are deliberately ignored by mainstream economists, when THOSE economists can't explain something, they promptly fall back to patently false "justifications!"

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 10:20 | 4417010 mvsjcl
mvsjcl's picture

Hey Radical. I gave you a greenie just for keeping the comment very brief! Relatively speaking, of course. :-)

 

Seriously, enjoy them immensely.

 

 

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 19:25 | 4415936 Van Halen
Van Halen's picture

El Vaquero, don't forget BLACK unemployment, which is catastrophic - with black youth unemployment in the 40%+ range.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:18 | 4415650 erkme73
erkme73's picture

It's the weather

 

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:23 | 4415657 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

Don't huff the paint ...could end up like this dude. What an asshole!

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2522329/Millionaire-executive-tr...

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:33 | 4415682 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

With his life taken away, he'll get it right the next time.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 19:54 | 4415993 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

The proper sentence for that man is to be remanded to servitude to to the surviving families along with expenses paid to the government for handling the accident thru trial and the remainer of his fortune going to pay down the national debt (which would not exist after we simply repudiate the debt and hang the traitors).  I guess we can use the money to fund the trials for bankers, politicians, CEOs and possibly even Generals. 

Yeah, I know, give the money to the families.  No.  If they had money they would buy conveniences.  Since this bastard would be working for them we would not want to make that work easier for him with that money.  Let his remaining existence be hard and short - half way to his goal of suicide anyway.  We are civilized so no need to be brutal.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:25 | 4415663 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

What is aggrivating is that they blame everything that has nothing to do with the weather on the weather, yet we are going to get squeezed by the weather soon via even higher food prices. 

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:19 | 4415652 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

Jobless. homeless, creditless recovery anyone?

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:22 | 4415653 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Retarded red meat for Republicans. The Reagan years represented the early days of the debt Ponzi scheme super cycle. It also wasn't a real recovery, but for different reasons.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:34 | 4415681 sylviasays
sylviasays's picture

Real red meat for rational thinking people. The Obozo years are represented by the latter years of the debt Ponzi scheme super cycle. It isn't a real recovery, but a phony manufactured one for obvious political reasons.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:50 | 4415717 zaphod42
zaphod42's picture

We're coming up on year 35 of the Ponzi Scheme, begun by St. Ronnie the Wrong, extended by Bush I (who at least cared enough to back of a bit, and though he continued the policies called it "Voodoo" economics), pumped up with great relish (and a bit of mustard) by Slick Willie and presided over for 8 years by Shrub Bushney, and then, with enormous fraud and falcification by Barack O'Bama since.  Of course we know there is only one political party, and that is the Corporatist Party, divided into indistinguishible factions calling them selves by traditional names like Republican and Democrat. 

All part of the Facist States of America. 

Saddest of all is lack of Conservative resolve to challenge the Banksters. 

Craig

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 18:17 | 4415764 SDShack
SDShack's picture

I thought the Debt Ponzi scheme began in 1913?

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 22:05 | 4416276 analyzer_66
analyzer_66's picture

Or the dismantling of the gold standard bretton woods agreement was the start of the real money printing rally culminating in the latest concert of Benny & the ink jets.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 07:31 | 4416922 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I thought the Debt Ponzi scheme began in 1913?

 

Which party was that President again? Oh yeah, a progressive....like Bush and Obama.

 

And thus 101 years ago.....the total transformation of America started.

 

You think Obama is doing anything new? He's just doing exactly what they did in the French Vendee hundreds of years ago.

Hope and change my ass.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 18:22 | 4415782 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Exactly. Both parties have enriched their buddies at everyone else's expense. The need for some to stick by their party no matter is why we have so many problems in the first place.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:22 | 4416058 drstrangelove73
drstrangelove73's picture

Blah blah.
The Ronaldus Magnus recovery is the standard against which the skinny Marxist pimp is compared.
And guess what?
Mene mene tekel upharsin

You have been weighed in the balance,and found wanting

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 21:32 | 4416133 Wait What
Wait What's picture

Conservative resolve to challenge the Banksters

the funniest thing I read today. both conservatives and liberals are so confused at this moment in history with which way to go it's Keystone cops funny. everyone's got an opinion on how to get us to shangri-la, but no proof that it's going to work. the world was a different place that last time their recommendations were tried, with spurious results at best... and the only thing they refuse to try is the libertarian way. because it doesn't fit their ideology.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 09:49 | 4416993 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

"everyone's got an opinion on how to get us to shangri-la,"

"Opinions are like assholes, everybodys got one."

Dirty Harry

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 20:25 | 4418407 Wait What
Wait What's picture

dirty harry getting chased by an R/C car through the streets of San Francisco. Classic jump the shark moment.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:57 | 4415725 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Hey, I am no economics guy, but I could find work during Reagan. We also made stuff.

Let's get rid of Bath House and National Socialism.

At least RR had no problem saluting the Flag.

Nazocommunism sux!!

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 18:24 | 4415778 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Reagan was a script reader that the sheep could understand. He spent as well as any Dem prez.

He and Thatcher both benefitted from right place at the right time realities with North Sea oil coming online. The Reagan years are when this whole corporao-fascist culture we currently have kicked into high gear.

I also love how it's all good if they play the patriotism card. they can steal the sheep blind, but salute that flag, and hawt damn he's a patriot! No wonder elected officials quit caring what the publics wants.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 18:58 | 4415875 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

St. Ronnie was a figurehead who was all about making people 'feel good' - EVERYTHING he campaigned for to get the nomination (the end the Fed, anti-DC etc) got dropped after he GOT the nomination.  

Herbert Walker was running foreign affairs for the CIA - keep in mind this was the time of IRAN CONTRA et al.   Millions and millions in drug money coming into the US (Clinton was on the gravy train too.... google Mena Arkansas).   From Reagan on Presidential candidates have been vetted by the dark side.  After Carter tried to get a handle on the CIA those in power made sure it would never happen again.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:59 | 4416132 Rafferty
Rafferty's picture

Don't understand the down arrows when you're clearly stating the truth.  Well, maybe the truth hurts some people.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 21:08 | 4416149 mofreedom
mofreedom's picture

How did RR, in his late age, benefit from his presidency?  He didn't make $180 K per speech like colon bowel, the guy he made famous, does, all the while the colon talks down the conservative movement that RR was part of?  RR deserves utmost respect in my book unless you can provide some concrete or squishy evidence to the contrary.  Who's in control anyway?

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 23:48 | 4416549 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

RR deserves utmost respect in my book unless you can provide some concrete or squishy evidence to the contrary.  Who's in control anyway?

 

LMAO. First let me tell you that it is NOT the President or Congress or the Supreme Court. As to the EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE...

 

Ronald Reagan was an OUTSIDER in 1980. He was intent on TOTAL ECONOMIC REFORM and he ran his Campaign on that platform. His team was comprised of Revolutionaries. He had David Stockman as OMB Director. He appointed Paul Criag Roberts as the Assistant Treasury Secretary. He had Epps and Ron Paul on the Gold Standard Commission.

 

HE PLANNED TO DISMANTLE THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK. The entire ECONOMY in 1979 and 1980 was on the precipice of a TOTAL COLLAPSE. If it had not been for Paul Volcker we would not be spending US Dollars TODAY.

 

(I wish that Volcker had FAILED.)

 

Reagan was going to reinstitute a Gold Standard.

 

Let me tell you an INCONVENIENT TRUTH. The Secret Service works for the US Treasury. They are US TREASURY AGENTS. They are loyal to...THE US TREASURY. Presidents come and Presidents go. But the US TREASURY does not. It remains throughout Administrations. The Secret Service are LOYAL TO THE ONES WHOM SIGN THEIR PAYCHECK.

 

Every incoming President is taken into the White House Theater as President Elect. They are customarily shown the Zapruder Film by the Secret Service Agents. (That is the film which shows John Kennedy's head exploding into a cloud of Blood.) They would be remiss in their duties if they do not show the President Elect a screening of this film. Then they are instructed to warn the President Elect with the following words...

 

"THIS CAN HAPPEN TO YOU."

 

Now you can construe that as a warning of concern about the President Elect's safety. Or you can construe that as a veiled threat.

 

Reagan, being the optimist, mistakenly construed it as a warning of concern.

 

Then in March, 1981, a little more than two months after Ronald Reagan took office, John Hinclley shoots Reagan in the chest. The bullet almost found his heart. He almost died as a result.

 

Then came the resignations of all of those people..like David Stockman and all of the other reformers. The Gold Commision was stacked and came out with the Federal Reserve's policy that a return to a Gold Standard was unfeasible.

 

It just took a bullet to Reagan's chest to convince him.

 

That is the EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE.

 

So do tell me...WHO IS IN CONTROL ANYWAY?

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 23:50 | 4416567 FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

Tom, thanks for the perspective and "piece of the puzzle".

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 08:22 | 4416937 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

WHO IS IN CONTROL ANYWAY?

 

Good luck on your trip down the rabbet hole. If you meet someone named Svali on your journey....tell her I said hello.

Yes that is a hint, and today that's as far as I go.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 08:45 | 4416944 FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

Checking out Svali right now. Do you  mind giving me your brief synopsis of her message?

..ok, having problems with the "time trave" part of the grand scheme.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 08:56 | 4416949 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I can't remember.....or maybe I don't want to get nail gunned.....or maybe I'm just screwing with someone.

 

I'll let you decide for yourself.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 09:00 | 4416965 FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

Gotcha :)

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 22:25 | 4418669 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

You know that I will tell Svali hello.

 

You do likewise for me.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 11:42 | 4417101 mofreedom
mofreedom's picture

What you said is what I've always thought, same ro Kenedy and Lincoln.  So, RR was pragmatic.  That said, I don't believe he ever FIRST did harm.  There's gotta be a way with all the president's resources to defeat who's really is control.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 22:27 | 4418675 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

It runs way too deep. The subversion has been made complete.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 03:20 | 4416797 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

EVERYTHING he campaigned for to get the nomination (the end the Fed, anti-DC etc) got dropped after he GOT the nomination.

 

I wonder why?

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:40 | 4416088 mofreedom
mofreedom's picture

RR:  three legs of the stool:  free enterprise, strong national defense and a strong family unit.  God, he sucked.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 18:02 | 4415736 linrom
linrom's picture

Yes, its retarded and yes it's their job to spread this bullshit.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 18:11 | 4415754 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

We had around a 5% growth rate back then and that was BEFORE they changed the inflation rate calculation to lower inflation which also inflated the growth rate.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:41 | 4416094 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

That was the beginning of my awakening. 

Really don't get the junks here. Yunguns?

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 21:33 | 4416198 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Do not concern yourself with the Junks. ZH is not a Popularity Contest. (I just upvoted you.)

 

Hell I write the TRUTH that the REPUBLICAN CONgress voted to fund the ACA last October. Supposedly they "shut down" Government to NOT FUND IT. BUT IT WAS ALL THEATER, wasn't it?

 

All funds are allocated by Congress according to the Constitution.

 

Money talks and Bullshit walks. And as the Republican Congress voted to FUND the ACA then they FINANCIALLY SUPPORT the ACA as FINANCIAL SUPPORT IS SUPPORT.

 

Of course the RED TEAM ADVOCATES do NOT want to read THE TRUTH. So they junk my post about it.

 

OF COURSE THAT DOES NOT CHANGE THE TRUTH.

 

And the "Oh Be Another Murdering Asshole" Care plan is both enacted and FUNDED due to the BLUE TEAM/RED TEAM cooperation.

 

That is what OBAMAcare is designed to do...MURDER YOU.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 00:30 | 4416650 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

At least Reagan acted presidential. Fuck Obama and his chimp.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 01:38 | 4416747 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

I am no fan of Obama but Reagan acted more like Royalty than Presidential.

 

We do not have Kings in the USA.

 

If acting were the prerequisite for managing a Government then Reagan was the prefect man for the role. Obama is not an actor. He is just a poor figurehead versus a better figurehead.

 

Both Reagan and Obama have had little to do with the powers, the Shadow Government, that runs this Nation.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:32 | 4415661 AGoldhamster
AGoldhamster's picture

Tyler - it's not about the truth or unemployment.
It's just about votes and elections.

Truth is what they - the 1% ers - hate and avoid like the plaque.
Truth (Snoden, real unemployment, russian youtube's ...) just spells trouble.

Nice talk - i.e Fuck the EU, Fuck unemployed, Fuck Tyler/ZH, Fuck Snoden, Fuck Putin, Fuck Angela, Fuck China, Fuck Paul, Fuck Bloggers, Fuck all those damned idiots still using their brains and asking dumb questions ... - is what they prefer.

Get real ... sarc

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:28 | 4415672 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Is a receding recession growing or shrinking? And, when did it start?

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:31 | 4415677 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Please dont worry. The Summer of Recovery is on its way !!!

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:35 | 4415688 sylviasays
sylviasays's picture

Moar dope and spare change!

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 19:40 | 4415965 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

This is an Mid Term Election Year. You can bet that the Republican CONgress* and the Democratic Chief ACRONYM** are going to grease the skids with MOAR SPENDING.

 

Just some MOAR Red Team/Blue Team BULLSHIT.

 

* REMEMBER!!! The Republican CONgress voted to FUND OBAMAcare last October. THEY DID IT. THERE IS NO EXCUSE.

**OBAMA is an ACRONYM from the CIA or some other Alphabet Agency. It replaced Barry Sotero's last name. My sources tell me that it means

Oh

Be

A

Murdering

Asshole

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:35 | 4415684 linniepar
linniepar's picture

11.1 still seems realistically low from where I sit.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:59 | 4415730 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Shadowstats has it at 23%+.

His methodolgy is more trustworthy.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 19:14 | 4415894 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Truth is that we're WORSE off than the 1932 unemployment peak - but with EBT and all you don't have peopel selling apples and pencils on the street (though you have enough people sell ing 'stuff' on highway on/off ramps).  Keep cutting benefits and you WILL start to see nice long lines at soup kitchens.  Food pantries are already running low and are unable to meet demand.

At least in the 30's FDR paid people to WORK and the nation got things as a result - CCC and WPA built roads, parks, buildings and more.  Artists painted murals in schools and Post Offices.   VALUE was created in exchange for the money spent.

Today we pay people to do nothing.

In the 30's the US borrowed money - from its own people - to pay people to work so they could buy things made by other AMericans and put more Americans back at work.  Today we borrow money form foreigners (or play a game in having the Fed buy the debt issued by Treasury) to pay people NOT to work, allowing them to buy stuff made overseas worsening out balance of trade and national debt.

The US ENCOURAGES companies to send even more jobs overseas with 'free trade' agreements (the TPP is even worse than previous ones) and rewards failing banks and Wall Street firms. Instead of clawing back unearned bonuses and banning execs from the industry we reward them.  Instead of requiring firms receiving government aid to bring BACK the jobs they sent overseas (like DP and Call Centers ) we allow them to send even MORE jobs overseas.  (Banks are now sending basic accounting functions to India).

We're seeing a looting of the few remaining assets left in the US - those at the top (the 0.01%) are grabbing all they can before the collapse they know they can't prevent.   The 'solution of last resort' - Massive War - won't even work this time because you have to HAVE a basic industrial capacity left to 'ramp up'.   For Gulf I the US had to go buying ammo elsewhere.   We rearmed the Iraquis with exSoviet weapons because we couldn't even supply US troops with US made equipment.

 

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 19:40 | 4415966 Encroaching Darkness
Encroaching Darkness's picture

>>> At least in the 30's FDR paid people to WORK and the nation got things as a result - CCC and WPA built roads, parks, buildings and more.  Artists painted murals in schools and Post Offices.   VALUE was created in exchange for the money spent. <<<

Debateable - if VALUE was created in exchange for MONEY spent, then creating dependency on government is a virtue? FDR policies kept and prolonged the depression, and still people worship his interventions, none of which ended the Depression, since WWII did that. We do need people to work, and Americans are some of the most creative business people on the planet when UNLEASHED: it's the endless regulations, limitless tort liability and crippling taxation (theft of effort and work products by government) that prevent a faster recovery now. The USSR had plenty of regulations, oversight and liability for the LITTLE PEOPLE - their party members and politicians of all levels did better than the proles. Do we need to re-learn the failures of the USSR here in the USSA before we can recover from this madness?

>>>  Today we pay people to do nothing. <<<

Another example of successful government intervention in the economy?

>>> The US ENCOURAGES companies to send even more jobs overseas with 'free trade' agreements (the TPP is even worse than previous ones) and rewards failing banks and Wall Street firms.<<<

ANOTHER example of successful government intervention in the economy?

If we need more government, can you tell me why? If we need LESS, can you tell me how we get it?

The next war will be between the USGov and the people it claims to "protect" and "serve". It may be short or long, clean or bloody, won or lost by either side; but if the USGov predators "win", only ashes will be left. If the people "win", perhaps liberty can return.

Either way, I suspect there will be a lot fewer Americans after the Crunch than before it. Between armed conflict and starvation when the JIT systems fail, a whole lot of FSA folks, "guardians" and ordinary citizens are likely to starve to death.

But then, this is the inevitable result of LYING for the last hundred+ years, at least. Truth would have voted the incompetent, greedy and psychopathic out of office, one by one and over the years. Cleaning up a century of corruption at once will be ugly.

 

 

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:23 | 4416059 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Today, the gubbamint pays people to NOT work. Why not require all welfare recipients put in 20 hours a week in community service to earn their benefits. 

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 13:03 | 4417261 Milestones
Milestones's picture

"Community Service"?? So we can get more O'Blah blah's!! Plus every guy getting jail probation does "community service" taking away even more potential jobs from the market place. Better; make these folks personal body guards for all our politicians and Bankers--ARMED  body guards--could get interesting.              MIlestones

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 19:40 | 4415967 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Whaddya' mean we're payin' people not to work? O'bomb-a (and his last seven or eight predecessors at least) have been creating lots of new jobs. DHS, BATF, DEA, DOE(both), EPA, FBI, TSA, USDA, FDA, and dozens more untouchable, unaccountable, un-elected agencies all working feverishly to relieve of us of all responsibility, freedom, and disposable income.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 01:39 | 4416748 the0ther
the0ther's picture

Are we really paying the unemployed for doing nothing? Come on they're watching tv and viewing the commercials. Or they're spending hours online giving their data to Facebook and Google. 

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:36 | 4415685 stant
stant's picture

whats the next 5 year plan glorious comrades?

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 18:26 | 4415804 Bad Attitude
Bad Attitude's picture

More Hope and Change! Forward, commrades!

And, if you oppose Dear Leader, you will be sent to a FEMA reeducation camp to get your head straight.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 00:37 | 4416664 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

You'll be sent to the poor house first.  FEMA comes after.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:39 | 4415691 squid427
squid427's picture

The financialization of the economy might have started in the Reagan years, but I think that is a different discussion. Atleast people were able to find full time employment. Now Obamao and his kind tell us they have freed us from full time jobs.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 19:55 | 4416003 Accounting101
Accounting101's picture

Bullshit! The financialization of the economy is the only discussion. We are in an economic nightmare because of that economic transformation, which of course was a deliberate choice. The Reagan years (and late Carter) were where the seeds of the middle class destruction were sown. That was when the pillaging commenced.

If you try to rationalize this fact with some bullshit about three million more jobs created, you are part of the problem and engaging in tribal idiocy.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 00:44 | 4416663 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Financialization began in 1913. There is no arguing that.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:47 | 4416110 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

That's when the offshoring began.

It started with a trickle, then the deluge. Incremental my friend.

The jobs created were service sector & yes, just as now you're free to work 3 of them.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:41 | 4415702 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  I remember interest rates were well into the double digits in the mid-late 80's. Mind you, this was when the Federal deficit was well under $1 trillion. ;-)

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:44 | 4415704 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

1983-1986?

You mean back when we made toasters and can openers and had savings?

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 17:52 | 4415710 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  lol, great comment Ebbie.

    Back when Acura, Lexus & Infinity, were just a twinkle in their parents eyes.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:02 | 4415978 Accounting101
Accounting101's picture

Ah, yes! The good ole early 1980's. The beginnings of the financialization of our economy and the underpinnings of the economic nightmare we now find ourselves in. When those who should have known better (voters), or at the very least paying attention, dropped the ball and fucked things up for the rest of us. They instead played tribal politics and pretended there was a political choice.

The 1980's should be looked back upon with disgust and regret.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:36 | 4416079 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Can we keep the leg warmers?

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 01:10 | 4416713 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Ebworthen is a maniac, maniac on the floor.

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 20:47 | 4416112 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Has voting EVER done any good?

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 21:13 | 4416157 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

That is a matter of perspective.

 

For you, me, and the vast majority the answer is an uneqivocal, "NO!!!"

 

However if you are the Politician receiving the votes (Explicit validation), the Financial Backers of the campaign, the Bankster Elite, and the others whom game the system then I think that it has benefitted those.

 

As I sharpen my cold steel...

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 22:18 | 4416301 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I would argue that local elections can have more impact than national ones.  There is still the problem that most people are retards though. 

Sat, 02/08/2014 - 23:06 | 4416438 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

There is still the problem that most people are retards though. 

 

If that is the case then my thesis is still as valid.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 01:13 | 4416715 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

There's a bell curve, indeed. That's why the founders set up a republic for us, not a pure democracy.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 02:03 | 4416762 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Unfortunately 83% score Average or...below.

 

Average is just not all that remarkable.

 

That is a hell of a majority to overcome.

Sun, 02/09/2014 - 09:43 | 4416989 spankfish
spankfish's picture

P { margin-bottom: 0.08in; }

"I would argue that local elections can have more impact than national ones.  There is still the problem that most people are retards though."

P { margin-bottom: 0.08in; }

I would argue that local erections can have more impact than national ones.  There is still the problem that most people are retards though.

 

Fixed it.

Sarc/off 

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