This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Icahn Folds On Apple Buyback

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Around six months after first tweeting his admiration for Apple's cash stockpile and a "large position" in the largest company in the world, it would appear every business media's favorite activist is throwing in his chips.

  • *ICAHN SAYS NO REASON TO PERSIST WITH APPLE BUYBACK PROPOSAL

Having been there to lift the stock above $500, with it back around $500, and following his recent "add", he now agrees with ISS that there are "other options on the spectrum of allocating capital." Perhaps he read our post on domestic cash over the weekend?

 

 

As Icahn notes,

Dear Fellow Apple Shareholders,

While we are disappointed that last night ISS recommended against our proposal, we do not altogether disagree with their assessment and recommendation in light of recent actions taken by the company to aggressively repurchase shares in the market.

 

In their recommendation, ISS points out, and we agree, that “on the spectrum of options for allocating capital, the board appears to have been sluggish only in returning excess cash to shareholders,” and even though the company has in place “one of the largest buybacks in history” we agree with ISS that this effort seems “like bailing with a leaky bucket” when “given the scale of the company’s cash reserves.”

 

That being said, we also agree with ISS’s observation, taking into account that the company recently repurchased in “two weeks alone” $14 billion worth in shares, that “for fiscal 2014, it appears on track to repurchase at least $32 billion in shares.” Our proposal, as ISS points out, “thus effectively only asks the board to spend another $18 billion on repurchases in the current year.”

 

As Tim Cook describes them, these recent actions taken by the company to repurchase shares have been both “opportunistic” and “aggressive” and we are supportive. In light of these actions, and ISS’s recommendation, we see no reason to persist with our non-binding proposal, especially when the company is already so close to fulfilling our requested repurchase target.

 

Furthermore, in light of Tim Cook’s confirmed plan to launch new products in new categories this year (in addition to an exciting product roadmap with respect to new products in existing categories), we are extremely excited about Apple’s future. Additionally, we are pleased that Tim and the board have exhibited the “opportunistic” and “aggressive” approach to share repurchases that we hoped to instill with our proposal. It is our expectation that Tim and the board continue to exhibit this behavior as fiduciaries to the shareholders since they clearly seem to agree that our company continues to be extremely undervalued, and we all share a common optimism with respect to the company’s bright long term future.

 

Sincerely yours,

 

Carl C. Icahn

Curiously, Icahn pulls out just two days after we reminder everyone that AAPL's buyback capacity is now virtually empty absent more bond issuance or taxable repatriation:

Today, one of the more prominent news releases was that as the WSJ reported overnight, AAPL had repurchased on an accelerated basis some $14 billion of its shares in the past two weeks, following the constant Tweeted proddings of Carl Icahn, and the market responded by rewarding the stock and pushing it 1.4% higher. There is, however, a flip side to this artificial boost in the company's EPS calculation: a plunge in the company's domestic cash.

As everyone knows, AAPL is still a cash cow, and in the last quarter following the release of its latest iPhone and iPad, it generated a bumper $12 billion in cash. The only problem is that this is global cash, and as the company's 10-Q indicates, $13.1 billion of this cash was generated and held offshore, which means that AAPL's domestic cash declined by $1.1 billion. In fact, as the chart below shows, this was the 4th consecutive quarter in which AAPL's domestic cash has declined offset by a massive cash build offshore. And a reminder, "Amounts held by foreign subsidiaries are generally subject to U.S. income taxation on repatriation to the U.S." This also means that unless AAPL repatriates some of its offshore cash, and unless it issues even more debt, its stock buybacks and dividends are limited to the declining cash amounts held in the US.

So if one were to extrapolate AAPL's Q1 domestic cash simply by subtracting the reported $14 billion used in the stock buyback from its December 31 US cash holdings, as of today, all else equal, AAPL now has "only" $20.4 billion in cash held domestically - an amount that matches its domestic cash holdings last seen in September 2010.

Which suggests that after having yielded to Icahn and successfully defended the $500 level by aggressively buying back its own stock in the last two weeks, AAPL's dry powder for future buybacks is now running dangerously low.

The implication is two-fold: going forward, AAPL's discretionary stock buybacks will be far, far less active as the company will seek to preserve a cash buffer, especially if it wishes to engage in domestic M&A and to preserve liquidity for future dividends. Alternatively, it is becoming increasingly likely that just like in 2013, AAPL will once again be forced to access the debt markets in order to raise its domestic cash level to a point where it will once again have a comfortable cash balance with which to repurchase its stock.

So if indeed Icahn has gotten deep under the skin of Tim Cook, look for AAPL announcing a bond issue in the not to distant future, as it continues to lever itself up merely to placate some of its more vocal activist shareholders (or, improbably enough, repatriating some of its offshore cash at a huge tax hit to the company - something it did not do last time it issued debt, and something it almost certainly won't do this time around).

Alternatively, if there is no debt issue, expect that any aggressive future stock buybacks by Cook's management team will trickle to next to nothing, at which point it will be just the market's buyers negotiating with the market's sellers, without the benefit of tens of billions in additional stock purchases by the company itself.

Whether this means that the stock, which got its euphoric boost today on the buyback news, will now drift lower as the price is set purely by the market will likely be seen in the coming week, although should the Fed also fold and once again taper the taper, thus lifting all boats in confirmation that even the most modest pullback in the S&P is enough to get it back into activist mode, then all bets are off.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mon, 02/10/2014 - 10:37 | 4419675 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Icahn decided to invest all of Apple's funds into Bitcoin...

just before the FEDS sold their stash...

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 10:40 | 4419688 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

or perhaps the fix is already in and this is just public fodder.....the media is useful for a few things (like for purchase)

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 10:39 | 4419692 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

It's quiet in here......too quiet.

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 10:41 | 4419694 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

I Cahn....I Cahn't.

Confused man.

ori

 

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 11:31 | 4419868 Mister Kitty
Mister Kitty's picture

Apple smapple.  I'm a Samsung retard.  Bitches.

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 12:18 | 4420005 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Expect an angry "fone" call in about 6 seconds. But, serioiusly, I don't have time for Icahn's anouncements, I can't imagine why anyone would.

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 10:47 | 4419686 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

iCan't should be in jail for this blatant stock manipulation. You better believe that one of us proles couldn't get away with this. It will be interesting to see if iCan't even has Apple shares with his next filing, or if Apple bought him out just to get him off their back.

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 10:59 | 4419756 The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

 

 

A verse on a terrible Cook

Now using Carl's recipe book

The Apple you bake

Is a menu mistake

A meal only fit for a crook

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 10:39 | 4419693 TimmyM
TimmyM's picture

Once a greenmailer, always a greenmailer...

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 10:42 | 4419704 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

rats like cheese i heard

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 10:44 | 4419705 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

iCon

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 10:54 | 4419734 codecode
codecode's picture

"in addition to an exciting product roadmap with respect to new products in existing categories" - can't wait! /s

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 11:12 | 4419798 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

Heh.....they can map all the roads they want but they are not getting past this:

http://bgr.com/2014/02/06/blackberry-10-browser-test-iphone-android/

The new Blackberrys even smoke your desktop PC...imagine that.

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 11:18 | 4419825 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

I love my Z10!

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 11:02 | 4419763 Randy Goodnight
Randy Goodnight's picture

What form of currency does AAPL hold its offshore profits and how to they account for that when said currency (currencies) go down?

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 11:15 | 4419809 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Hey, Icon, did your poor Apple become roadkill by your General Motors Humvee?  Yeah! GM! Now that was another one of your great picks.

Brains and money have NO direct correlation.

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 11:21 | 4419833 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

Of course no buyback. He know's the market is topping out.

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 16:57 | 4421050 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

not yet its not.

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 12:18 | 4420009 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

When interest rates are artificially low, the malinvestments are not artificial

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 12:46 | 4420111 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Icahn's ego has milked all the attention it can get out of Apple.

Perhaps Tesla is next, or Amazon?

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 21:30 | 4422142 Z_End
Z_End's picture

Maybe Google?

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 16:56 | 4421046 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

Icahn's wrong on this.

 

plan to launch new products in new categories this year (in addition to an exciting product roadmap with respect to new products in existing categories..

If and to the extent true, and while I don't have insider information as such, I'm confident it is, then it makes absolutely perfect sense for them to buyback shares with excess cash now  - the value of cash is likely to continue to erode, maybe by a lot in the next 2 years, while the value of their stock will rise, esp relative to others.

It's better than sitting on it, or distributing it, or converting it and taking the tax hit, or putting it in government debt or in stocks...

ZH assessment on Apple is one of the very few things I think {for what little that might be worth} ZH makes a habit of getting wrong.  It would also be nice to see more technical discussions when there are new product roll outs.  Sure, I rely on other sources for most of that, but it informs the conversation.  Apple, Samsung, HTC are all pretty good.  FB, Twitter, etc. - not so much, I think.

I don't know what to make of bitcoin, but I'm sure it will exceed its former highs...  I suspect it's already being manipulated up the ass, and still has a lot of new investor pool potential.  these crashes to earth will help get more bandwagon jumpers, eh?

 

 

Mon, 02/10/2014 - 21:30 | 4422153 Z_End
Z_End's picture

Great commentary. Thanks.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!