The Golden Age of Gas... Possibly: An Interview With The IEA

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Submitted by James Stafford via OilPrice.com,

The potential for a golden age of gas comes along with a big “if” regarding environmental and social impact. The International Energy Agency (IEA)—the “global energy authority”--believes that this age of gas can be golden, and that unconventional gas can be produced in an environmentally acceptable way.

In an exclusive interview with Oilprice.com, IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven, discusses:

  • The potential for a golden age of gas
  • What will the “age” means for renewables
  • What it means for humanity
  • The challenges of renewable investment and technology
  • How the US shale boom is reshaping the global economy
  • Nuclear’s contribution to energy security
  • What is holding back Europe’s energy markets
  • The next big shale venues beyond 2020
  • The reality behind “fire ice”
  • Condensate and the crude export ban
  • The most critical energy issue facing the world today

Interview by. James Stafford of Oilprice.com

Oilprice.com: In 2011, the IEA predicted what it called “the golden age of gas,” with gas production rising 50% over the next 25 years. What does this “golden age” mean for coal, oil and nuclear energy—and for renewables? What does it mean for humanity in terms of carbon emissions? Is the natural gas boom lessening the sense of urgency to work towards renewable energy solutions?

IEA: We didn’t predict a golden age of gas in 2011, we merely asked a pertinent question: namely, are we entering a golden age of gas? And we found that the potential for such a golden age certainly exists, especially given the scale of unconventional gas resources and the advances in technology that allow their extraction. But the potential for a golden age of gas hinges on a big “if,” and we elaborated on this in 2012 in a report called “Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas”. Exploiting the world’s vast resources of unconventional natural gas holds the key to golden age of gas, we said, but for that to happen, governments, industry and other stakeholders must work together to address legitimate public concerns about the associated environmental and social impacts. Fortunately, we believe that unconventional gas can be produced in an environmentally acceptable way.

Under the central scenario of the World Energy Outlook-2013, natural gas production rises to 4.98 trillion cubic metres (tcm) in 2035, up nearly 50 percent from 3.38 tcm in 2011. But we have always said that a golden age of gas does not necessarily imply a golden age for humanity, or for our climate. An expansion of gas use alone is no panacea for climate change. While natural gas is the cleanest fossil fuel, it is still a fossil fuel. As we have seen in the United States, the drastic increase in shale gas production has caused coal’s share of electricity generation to slide. Of course, there is also the possibility that increased use of gas could muscle out low-carbon fuels, such as renewables and nuclear, from the energy mix.

OP: When will we see “the golden age of renewables”?

IEA: Although we have not yet predicted a “golden age” of renewables, the current, rapid growth of renewable power is a bright spot in an otherwise bleak picture of global progress towards a cleaner and more diversified energy mix. Still, the investment case for capital-intensive, low carbon power technologies carries challenges. We need to distinguish between two situations:

•    In emerging economies, renewable power often provides a cost-competitive alternative to new fossil based generation and are perceived as part of the solution to questions of energy supply, diversification, and economic development. In China, for example, efforts to reduce local pollution are stimulating major investments in cleaner energy.

•    By contrast, in stable systems with sluggish demand, no technology is competitive with marginal electricity prices, due to overcapacity. Governments are nervous about increasing investment in low-carbon options which impact on consumer prices, and this is causing policy uncertainty. But long term energy security and environmental goals need to be kept in mind.

The overall outlook for renewable electricity remains positive, even as the outlook can vary strongly by market and region. However, the electricity sector comprises less than 20% of total final energy consumption. The growth of renewables in other sectors such as transport and heat has been more sluggish. For a golden age of renewables to materialise, greater progress is needed in these areas, for example, with the development of advanced biofuels and more policy frameworks for renewable heat.

OP: How is the shale boom reshaping the global financial and economic system? Who are the winners and losers in this emerging scenario?

IEA: One of the key messages of our World Energy Outlook-2013 is that lower energy prices in the United States mean that it is well-placed to reap an economic advantage, while higher costs for energy-intensive industries in Europe and Japan are set to be a heavy burden.

Natural gas prices have fallen sharply in the United States – mainly as a result of the shale gas boom –  and today they are about three times lower than in Europe and five times lower than in Japan. Electricity price differentials are also large, with Japanese and European industrial consumers paying on average more than twice as much for electricity as their counterparts in the United States, and even Chinese industry paying  almost double the US level.

Looking to the future, the WEO found that the United States sees its share of global exports of energy-intensive goods slightly increase to 2035, providing the clearest indication of the link between relatively low energy prices and the industrial outlook. By contrast, the European Union and Japan see their share of global exports decline – a combined loss of around one-third of their current share.

OP: The IEA has noted that the US is no longer so dependent on Canadian oil and gas. What could this mean for pending approval of TransCanada’s Keystone XL pipeline? How important is Keystone XL to the US as opposed to its importance for Canada?

IEA: The decision on the Keystone matter is one that must be taken by the United States Government. I am afraid it is not for the IEA to comment.

OP: With the nuclear issue taking center stage in Japan’s election atmosphere, is Japan ready to pull the plug entirely on nuclear, or is it too soon for that?

IEA: This year’s World Energy Outlook, which we will release in November 2014, will carry a special focus on nuclear energy, so please stay tuned. While I won’t discuss what Japan should do, I will say that every country has a sovereign right to decide on the role of nuclear power in its energy mix. Nevertheless, nuclear is one of the world’s largest sources of low-carbon energy, and as such, it has made and should continue to make an important contribution to energy security and sustainability.

A country’s decision to cut the share of nuclear in its energy mix could open up new opportunities for renewables, particularly as some phase-out plans envision the replacement of nuclear capacity largely with renewable energy sources. However, such a decision would also likely lead to higher demand for gas and coal, higher electricity prices, increased import dependency on fossil fuels and electricity, and a more difficult path towards decarbonisation. Such a scenario would therefore make it much more difficult for the world to meet the 2°C climate stabilisation goal, and have potentially negative impacts on energy security.

OP: What is the key factor holding back European energy markets?

IEA: Europe has quite a few advantages but also many hurdles to overcome. If I had to pick one key factor that is holding back European energy markets, I would say it is the lack of cross-border interconnections. Let me explain what I mean. As we showed in WEO 2013, Europe's competitiveness is under pressure, as energy price differences grow between Europe and its major trading partners – the US, China and Russia. High oil and gas import prices combined with low gas and electricity demand, following the recession, are impacting European economies.

Europe should accelerate the use of its indigenous potential and reap the social and economic benefits from energy efficiency, renewable energies and unconventional oil and gas. In open economies, there are significant advantages to be gained from free trade and a large energy market. One example: Today, we cannot make use of competitive electricity prices across the EU, as physical trade barriers exist and markets remain national. Europe is failing to achieve its potential. The electricity grid and system integration is very low, which also serves as a barrier to the full and efficient exploitation of renewable energy potentials. This is why addressing the issue of cross-border interconnections is so important.

OP: Where do you foresee the next “shale boom”?

IEA: According to WEO projections, there will be little non-North American shale development before 2020 due to the much earlier stage of exploration and the time needed to build up the oil field service value chain. Beyond 2020, we project large-scale shale gas production in China, Argentina, Australia as well as significant light tight oil production in Russia. The current reform proposals in Mexico have the potential to put Mexico on the top of that list as well, but they need to be properly implemented.

OP: What is the realistic future of methane hydrates, or “fire ice”?

IEA: Methane hydrates may offer a means of further increasing the supply of natural gas. However, producing gas from methane hydrates poses huge technological challenges, and the relevant extraction technology is in its infancy. Both in Canada and Japan the first test drillings have taken place, and the Japanese government is aiming to achieve commercial production in 10 to 15 years.

One thing I always mention when I am asked about methane hydrates is this: It may seem far off and uncertain, but keep in mind that shale gas was in the same position 10 to 15 years ago. So we cannot rule out that new energy revolutions may take place through technological developments and price incentives.

OP: Have we hit the “crude wall” in the US, the point at which oil production growth may end up slowing due to infrastructure and regulatory constraints?

IEA: In January 2013, the IEA’s Oil Market Report examined the possibility that as surging production continues to move the US closer to becoming a net oil exporter, there may come a time when various regulations, particularly the US ban on exports of crude oil to countries other than Canada, could have an adverse impact on continued investment in LTO – and thus continued growth in production. We called this point the “crude wall”.

A year later, in our January 2014 Oil Market Report, we noted that with US crude oil production exceeding even the boldest of expectations in 2013 by a wide margin, the crude wall now seems to be looming larger than ever. Having said that, challenges to US production growth are not imminent. Potential US growth in 2014 seems a given, even against the backdrop of resurgent non-OPEC supply growth outside North America.

OP: How is this shaping the crude export debate and where do you foresee this debate leading by the end of this year?

IEA: You are better off asking my friends and colleagues in Washington! This is obviously a sensitive topic. Different people feel differently about it, often very strongly. Oil policy always is the product of multiple, sometimes-competing considerations.

OP: What would lifting the ban on crude exports mean for US refiners, and for the US economy?

IEA: Many refiners and other major oil consumers have said they support keeping the ban amid worries that allowing exports would result in higher feedstock costs and erode their competitive advantage, or shift value-added industry abroad. On the other hand, oil producers have in general come out in favour of lifting the ban, arguing that the “crude wall” may become so large that it cannot be overcome; they see the possibility of a glut causing prices to slump and thereby choking off production. We have not produced any detailed analysis on the economic impact of lifting the ban, so I cannot comment on that part of your question.

OP: Are there any other ways around the “crude wall” aside from lifting the export ban?

IEA: As we wrote in our January 2014 Oil Market Report, much of the LTO is produced in the form of lease condensate, which is most optimally processed in a condensate splitter. There is currently only one such facility in the United States, although at least five others are in various stages of planning and construction.

I mention this issue because one could imagine a scenario under which lease condensate is excluded from the crude export restriction. The US Department of Commerce, which enforces the export ban, includes lease condensates in the definition of crude oil. However, this definition could be changed, or the Commerce Department could simply issue lease condensate export licenses at the behest of the President.

OP: How will the six-month agreement to ease sanctions on Iran affect Iranian oil production? And if international sanctions are indeed lifted after this “trial period”, how long will it take Iran to affect a real increase in production?

IEA: The deal between P5+1 and Iran doesn’t change the oil sanctions themselves. The oil sanctions remain fully in place though the P5+1 agreed not to tighten them further. Relaxing insurance sanctions doesn’t mean more oil in the market.

As for the second part of your question, I am afraid I can’t answer hypotheticals and what-ifs.

OP: What is the single most critical energy issue in the US this year?

IEA: I think that if you take the view that the energy-policy decisions you make now have ramifications for many decades to come, and if you believe what scientists tell us about the climate consequences of our energy consumption, then the single most critical energy issue in the US is the same issue for every country: what are you going to do with your energy policy to mitigate the risk of climate change? Energy is responsible for two-thirds of greenhouse-gas emissions, and right now these emissions are on track to cause global temperatures to rise between 3.6 degrees C and 5.3 degrees C. If we stay on our present emissions pathway, we are not going to come close to achieving the globally agreed target of limiting the rise in temperatures to 2 degrees C; we are instead going to have a catastrophe. So energy clearly has to be part of the climate solution – both in the short- and long-term.

OP: What is the IEA’s role in shaping critical energy issues globally and how can its influence be described, politically and intellectually?

IEA: Founded in response to the 1973/4 oil crisis, the IEA was initially meant to help countries co-ordinate a collective response to major disruptions in oil supply through the release of emergency oil stocks to the markets.

While this continues to be a key aspect of our work, the IEA has evolved and expanded over the last 40 years. I like to think of the IEA today as the global energy authority. We are at the heart of global dialogue on energy, providing authoritative statistics, analysis and recommendations. This applies both to our member countries as well as to the key emerging economies that are driving most of the growth in energy demand – and with whom we cooperate on an increasingly active basis.

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Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:13 | 4424091 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Obama could have been pushing (instead of fighting) this from day 1 under the guise (if necessary) of a trasition to a cleaner major fuel source.

If nothing else (from his perspective) the subsequent economic boost would have allowed him to have gotten away with far more fantasy, unicorn and rainbow shit.

Instead we get this phony, green energy, taxpayer raping, crony circus and a bunch of aborted and stillborn programs that haven't improved anything.

Not so smart after all.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:15 | 4424125 NOZZLE
NOZZLE's picture

Merc, the only thing Obanga is focused on pushing is someone else's fudge. Making the US more powerful is the last thing on his mind.  Besides, its so much fun watching one of Uncle Warren's trains of death derail and burn an entire town to the ground instead of building a pipeline.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:27 | 4424192 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

I guess no one was paying attention when he said his primary goal was to downsize America..

 

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:58 | 4424259 SRSrocco
SRSrocco's picture

ANOTHER PUFF PIECE:  Amazing how intelligent and at the same time how really STUPID we are.  It seems as if no one at the IEA understands "ANNUAL DECLINE RATES." 

The first 4 large shale gas fields that came online in the U.S. were the Barnett, Woodford, Fayetteville and Haynesville.  Right now, all four have peaked and are in decline.  Only one is treading water.

The COMBINED PEAK of natural gas production from these 4 large shale gas fields was about 17 Bcf... Billion cubic feet a day.  Again... that's the total peak production of all 4 fields combined.

Citi put out a report in 2013 stating the ANNUAL DECLINE RATE for U.S. Natural Gas production was 24%.  Thus, with a 71.5 Bcf rate at the end of 2013, the U.S. Shale Gas Players have to add 17 Bcf in 2014, 2015, 2016 and so on and so forth.... to keep production from falling.

That means, the U.S. shale gas industry has to add a BARNETT, WOODFORD, FAYETTEVILLE & HAYNESVILLE each year to keep production flat --- forget about growing.

The only shale gas field that has kept U.S. natural gas production from declining is the mighty Marcellus.  Even though the Marcellus still has a lot of gas to produce... SHALE GAS DECLINE RATES ARE A REAL BEE-OTCH

It will be interesting to see how this unfolds as the world realizes SHALE ENERGY was just another PONZI SCHEME in a line of PONZI SCHEMES.

Bill Powers, who I believe is one of the more astute Energy Analysts, believes we are going to see much higher natural gas prices.  Industry analysts forecast natural gas prices at $4.50 MMBtu with 10-20 years of growing production.  We all ready hit $5.40 MMBtu and the fun is only just beginning.... Silly analysts.

God Hath A Sense of Humor...

 

2014: The Year The U.S. Shale Gas Bubble Bursts & The Boom For Precious Metals?
Tue, 02/11/2014 - 14:03 | 4424317 samsara
samsara's picture

"Citi put out a report in 2013 stating the ANNUAL DECLINE RATE for U.S. Natural Gas production was 24%. Thus, with a 71.5 Bcf rate at the end of 2013, the U.S. Shale Gas Players have to add 17 Bcf in 2014, 2015, 2016 and so on and so forth.... to keep production from falling."

For God's sakes man.  Don't confuse them with facts.  Their face gets all funny and they melt down in obscenities.

We're talking Unicorns here!    and and and skittles..... 

ya can lead a man to knowledge, but you can't make them think.

Tell them "I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you. "

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 21:03 | 4426110 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

ANOTHER PUFF PIECE

...or Tuesday afternoon wry humor.

Amazing how intelligent and at the same time how really STUPID we are.

The intelligent will laugh at this article, the naive will believe it.

It seems as if no one at the IEA understands "ANNUAL DECLINE RATES."

Any of them who do understand it keep their mouths shut if they want to remain employed there. As for IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven, she is paid specifically not to understand it.

She even uses retard math:

Natural gas prices have fallen sharply in the United States – mainly as a result of the shale gas boom –  and today they are about three times lower than in Europe and five times lower than in Japan.

Three times lower? Five times lower? These expressions do not make any sense. If an item is priced at 100, what would five times lower be? Five times 100 is 500. Would the price then be 100 minus 500? It might be reasonable to assume that she means US NG prices are one third of those in Europe and one fifth of those in Japan, but it might not be reasonable to assume that she knows what she means.

Of course, the article carried the obligatory fairy tale narrative:

surging production continues to move the US closer to becoming a net oil exporter

However, what set this piece apart was the punchline regarding US oil production:

challenges to US production growth are not imminent.

That's uproariously funny, in a full retard kind of way.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:50 | 4424275 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

That is why the past 5 years have seen the greatest increases in the production of oil and gas that the country has ever seen...

\facepalm

BHO had nothing to do with it, but he sure did not get in the way...

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:18 | 4424134 swanpoint
swanpoint's picture

GOLDEN GAS BITCHEZ

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 14:05 | 4424328 nuclearsquid
nuclearsquid's picture

YEAH, GO U.S.!  We have all this cheap gas.  So much we can export!  We can celebrate by spending all the Yuan people will be paying us for said gas.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:16 | 4424136 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

"I CAN DO ANYTHING I WANT, I AM THE PRESIDENT!!"

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 19:32 | 4425746 scrappy
scrappy's picture

(waving my arms around and muttering things to myself)

 

MAKE IT SO!

Wed, 02/12/2014 - 07:39 | 4427350 Joseff Stalin
Joseff Stalin's picture

Methane is 20 times as potent a greenhouse gas as carbon dioxide.  Methane hydrate in the permafrost and Artic sea floor is decomposing at an alarming accelerating rate.  A positive feedback loop now exists.  We must convert as much of this methane to carbon dioxide as fast as possible.

 

In the past geologic history of this planet, global heating occurred once before.  All higher life forms died.  Only thermophilic bacteria survived.  All life forms on this planet are descended from these thermophilic bacteria.

We must harvest the decomposing methane hydrate at the greatest possible rate in order to protect ourselves from extermination. In all of history, this is a thing to do, and do it now.

 

Send letters to board of Directors of Sea Drill, Golar LNG, and Fluor Corporations encouraging them to design and build the floater rigs to capture and market this methane. Go long SDRL, GLNG.

Also send letters to the major oil and gas companies, XON, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell and Gasprom.

 

Also send letters to the Rothschilds and their banks, encouraging them to finance the venture.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:13 | 4424116 NOZZLE
NOZZLE's picture

Ooooo, this is not going to force Americans to spend more for renewables. This is not good for the environment, its going to incwease GweenHouse gASSes, make CO2GasGore really upthet, turn the oceans acidic and destroy coral reefs (Yeak okay an atomic Bomb at Bikini Atol failed to accomplish that but for sure CO2 will), cause massive droughts and increase the fly counts swarming around the faces of TurdWorld types while they bang their tin pans demanding more American grain. 

Idiots, I cant wait for the next Warren Buffet railroad train full of oil to derail and incinerate an entire town so the press can ignore that and instead focus on fracturing limestone with sand, water and horrible chemicals like, like NACL and, and HCL and C3H8O  otherwise known as wood alcohol.  Oh the humanities.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:36 | 4424234 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

MDB got nuthin on you...

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:18 | 4424135 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The IEA is pretty consistently wrong on such things as regards predictions, but prediction is hard for everyone.

The only quality in that interview was the discussion of how shale oil (LTO) is mostly lease condensate, which qualifies as "oil" only because of somewhat loose definitions.  LTO is very light on the important fractions, diesel and kerosene.  There has been some debate on this, but there are articles out noting Eagleford shale output (which exceeds the Bakken) contains a tiny amount of those fractions compared to what is in conventionel, proper Nigerian oil.

Why does this matter?  BTUs.  The less energy that is in what comes out of the ground, the worse the ratio of energy required per energy out.  In the end, this ratio is far more important than cost to drill vs price obtained.

 

 

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:23 | 4424152 Mercury
Mercury's picture

I'm not sure they're right about nat gas being (solely) a fossil fuel either. How many dinosaurs were on Titan?

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:25 | 4424160 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Somewhat not important.  Regardless of origin, you can only drill where the geology says it might be trapped.  Origin is not important.  Only geology is.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:26 | 4424181 perelmanfan
perelmanfan's picture

Origin matters because it indicates potential supply. Biotic oil is limited, abiotic is potentially far more abundant.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:36 | 4424226 Apply Force
Apply Force's picture

And flow per time is the context - how much, how fast, regardless of origin?

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:36 | 4424228 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Nope.  Not at all.

There are still only so many occurences of geologic trap rock structures in the right kinds of rock.  It doesn't matter at all what origin is.  100 years of drilling has shown that you fail 100% of the time drilling anywhere the geology isn't the right kind to trap hydrocarbons.  You fail often even in the right geology -- but in neither case does the analysis of seismic imagery care one iota where the hydrocarbons came from.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 19:36 | 4425766 scrappy
scrappy's picture

Don't those ruskies target crevices in the crust to drill for deep oil?

Anyway here is a crazy debate...

https://zosotruthtalk.wordpress.com/2010/08/23/the-abiotic-oil-debate-an...

 

Wed, 02/12/2014 - 07:49 | 4427362 Joseff Stalin
Joseff Stalin's picture
USSR Gas Well Blow Out = Nuclear Bomb Puts Out The Fire

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4iB9QYaSVEo


Wed, 02/12/2014 - 09:22 | 4427502 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Abiotic oil, even if it were to actually exist, is about as relevant as teats on a bull...

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:38 | 4424243 Matt
Matt's picture

How fast do you think the oil is going to get generated? Have you heard of empty wells suddenly oozing oil out of their casings due to having refilled again?

Even if you go with young-earth creation, that oil took at least 4000 years to fill up a reservoir, and then we suck it all out in 40 years.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 22:32 | 4426444 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

that makes too much sense Matt, we must reject it

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 19:34 | 4425759 thestarl
thestarl's picture

Suppose the worlds only 5000 yrs old to and there will be a second coming some time soon

Wed, 02/12/2014 - 09:28 | 4427517 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

And that about sums up the prospects for abiotic oil...

It begs the question, WWJD?  where D is Drive....

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:35 | 4424210 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Origin is important if the imperative is for renewable energy sources.

 

The revolution is shale gas wasn’t about detecting it’s presence via geology but overcoming the difficulty of extracting it. Besides, the geology also says nat gas is in places like landfills.

 

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:38 | 4424236 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You don't understand the business.  You drill for nat gas in geologic traps and you are only commercially viable if there are NGLs there.  Natural Gas Liquids like butane and propane and ethane.  THOSE are what pay the bills for the drilling.  Gas is a by-product of NGL recovery. 

Dry gas vs wet gas is the difference between shut down and production.  You can get paid if you flow butane.  If all you flow is methane, you will not drill another well.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:58 | 4424309 Mercury
Mercury's picture

As per my earlier point, maybe the government should have been looking into what they could do to help out those economics instead of wasting capital on windmills and solar.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 14:05 | 4424329 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Care to fathom what the level of subsidies (direct or otherwise) are for fossil fuels are?

Are you familiar with the concept of  "Depletion Allowance".... 

Hell, Exxon's tax break alone dwarfs all of renewable subsidies combined...

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 14:21 | 4424402 Mercury
Mercury's picture

So buy XOM.

Sure it's unfair.  I think everyone should have a depletion allowance.

There are more things that the government could do to increase demand instead of just encouraging production.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 14:35 | 4424450 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Here, this might be what you are looking for:

http://www.justforclowns.com/clown-supplies/

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:51 | 4424231 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Recycling that old canard are we?

Point to all the NG fields currently being exploited that are not associated with sedimentary rocks...

Moreover, comment on the observed NG Carbon isotope ratios compared to the known primordal ratios from study of moon rocks and the like...

There was no doubt a lot of primordial NG associated with the formation of the earth, but that stuff is long gone... 

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:17 | 4424138 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Too many people, finite resources.

Either we have fewer people, or more renewable energy.

Unfortunately, renewables cannot do the work of non-renewables - especially in food production.

We cannot sustain the trajectory of the past 100 years with non-renewables, renewables, or a combination of both any more than the FED can float equities in perpetuity with QE.

There are going to have to be fewer people.

BTW - using natural gas to run vehicles is going to make home heating unaffordable for many.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:23 | 4424159 Gumbum
Gumbum's picture

This!

Turns out that exponential growth is a bitch...

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:48 | 4424274 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Exponential growth ends with a total die off when there are no longer enough resources to sustain the population.  Look at bacteria in a petrie dish.

 

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:29 | 4424201 perelmanfan
perelmanfan's picture

Maybe. The average European uses less than half the energy of the average American, but their quality of life is almost certainly better. A vast amount of efficiency accomodation can be made in the U.S. before a nation this size can no longer support this many people.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:57 | 4424303 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Lots of luck relocating all those living in the exurbs closer to jobs in cities (those that still have jobs that is).  As for all those living in places uninhabitable withoug 24/7 AC ......  well, a lack of water may empty the Southwest and once Florida is underwater, that issue will be solved but all that will take a little time.

And just TRY and make Americans give up their second and third cars, their power EVRYTHING, air conditioners, etc.

Our great-grandchildren (if there are any around by then) will be lucky to have a medieval level lifestyle - which seems to be the goal of those who would be our future 'Lords and Masters'.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 14:21 | 4424393 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Eb, I don't disagree, but I'd qualify your position with the statement that "renewables cannot do the work of non-renewables at current usage models".

If we change the Usage Model, then this is entirely possible and -- I'd argue -- inevitable in a world with a growing population, that demands a hi-consumption/Western lifestyle.

Such changes include not only RRR (Reduce, Re-Use, Recycle), but shortening the Supply Lines to lesser dependance on Long Distance transport via inefficient vehicles (trucks!), and a transition to more Regional and Local Sourcing.  Certain non-perishable and vital supplies can and will have to be transported by rail and ships (ocean and inland Merchant Marine), as they are amazingly fuel efficient (MPG per ton).

Unless large planes become even more fuel efficient, or switch their Jet Fuel (Kerosene from Petroleum) to LNG (Liquified Nat Gas), their operating costs will remain at the mercy of Oil prices.

Wed, 02/12/2014 - 08:06 | 4427381 Joseff Stalin
Joseff Stalin's picture
Oil Driller Breaches Salt Mine Under Louisana Lake

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_feWtkSucvE


Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:38 | 4424154 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Maria van der Hoeven, unlike previous IEA appointees, is in way over her head... 

Check out her background if you don't believe me...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_van_der_Hoeven

A mouthpiece for hire....

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:22 | 4424157 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

if you believe what scientists tell us about the climate consequences of our energy consumption

 

That darn 'if' is always causing trouble.  The ideologues are telling us that energy consumption has catastrophic climate consequences.  The science - the actual data - not so much.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:24 | 4424170 Gumbum
Gumbum's picture

Sigh...

The actual data is telling us the same thing.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:42 | 4424246 Apply Force
Apply Force's picture

When data points are too few and/or irrelevent the consequent predictions suck.  See most climate data with "predictive" value.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 13:45 | 4424265 Flakmeister
Tue, 02/11/2014 - 14:21 | 4424406 Apply Force
Apply Force's picture

Your first link from the 75 study shows runaway warming in the co2 predictive model.  Nope.  Something less than that, so back to the soooo many interactions, both chemical and physical, that need to be taken into account to get a proper predictive model.  And never mind volcano eruptions and solar cycles (talking Landscheidt, not simply TSI).  And Svensmark has a bunch right as well, imho.  And how might the Galactic Year influnence climate? Then you link skepticalscience, which is almost as dogmatic as WUWT.  C'mon.  Our models are principally incomplete, but we have plenty of arrogance and hubris to back them up!

The pollution data about DDT and PCB's effect on phytoplankton is the deadly part - pollution kills.  Ask the birds, fish, turtles, etc eating plastic from the Pacific gyre - or ask the bees since we are still not sure why CCD is happening.  Lots of mass die-offs right now - not so sure we will all be around to see how the climate may change anyway.

And lastly, the merits of climactic science fail principally by the terms they work from - not the best source, but the info presented is a good place to work from:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOyBfihjQvI

 

 

 

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 14:27 | 4424431 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Are you taking something for your verbal diarrhea? You should consider it...

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 15:03 | 4424554 Apply Force
Apply Force's picture

And there's the tell...  Too much to consider, better that you just shut down.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 15:32 | 4424712 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

It is very hard to address a fractally wrong post, as was the case for yours...

Yes, SKS is dogmatic in that they adhere to peer reviewed science to make their point, instead relying on disingenous manipulation of figures and other forms of bullshit...

But, hey why don't you simply read the original paper?

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