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Japan Machine Orders Crumble At Fastest Pace In 22 Years As BOJ Board Member Warns More QE May Not Be Coming

Tyler Durden's picture




 

If you needed another reason to buy stocks, trust in the growth meme, and have your faith in Abenomics confirmed... look away. Japanese Machine orders for December just printed -15.7% in December - the biggest MoM plunge since 1992. This is the biggest miss to expectations since 2006 and what is considerably more problematic for Abe et al. is that YoY expectations of a core machine order rise of 17.4% was hopelessly missed with a small 6.7% gain (and this is data that excludes more volatile orders).

 

As Bloomberg notes, core machine orders are an indicator of future capital expenditure and it seems, just as in the US, that thanks to "stocks" now being considered central bank policy tools that capex no longer means productive capital use... it means buybacks, dividends, and shareholder recaps in any which way we can. How was the weather in Japan in December?

 

 

But while collapsing machine orders are "completely irrelevant", even if a plunge of this magnitude usually portends a recession, what should be far more troubling to the Kool aid addicts is if the BOJ were to announce that just like the Fed, it too is tapering its Open-ended QE ambitions. Considering this is precisely what BOJ board member Kiuchi just did, that relentless USDJPY meltup overnight may not be such a slamdunk.

From Market News...

Bank of Japan board member Takahide Kiuchi, who is against a rigid two-year timeframe for achieving 2% inflation, said side-effects of an additional easing would be bigger than its positive effects if the economy were deviating only slightly downward from the BOJ's recovery scenario, the Nikkei reported. Kiuchi, a former Nomura Securities economist, told the daily in an interview that it is difficult to predict how much a further easing would push up consumer prices, and that wages should rise in line with price gains.

 

He also said the BOJ "should make a cautious decision as to whether to continue or scale back" the current aggressive easing at the end of the target period to hit stable 2% inflation in about two years from April 2013.

No Panic yet but JPY and NKY are fading...

 

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Tue, 02/11/2014 - 20:16 | 4425942 ACP
ACP's picture

I don't care what post this is, I'm still gonna bash Boner.

Go to hell, son! And take your baboon fuckface with you!

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 20:47 | 4426010 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

One would think that with the construction/machine replacement needed to transition from nuclear to other fuel sources, this number would be off the charts on the high end.  So not only is it low, it is ridiculously low.  As for baboon fuckface, he's already fucked himself.  Why do you think he's always crying?  He's in love, but One, is the Loneliest Number, That You'll Ever Do.  

Wed, 02/12/2014 - 00:37 | 4426841 yogibear
yogibear's picture

+1000 on that comment. Boner should do the decent thing, resign and reveal he's a closet liberal. 

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 20:19 | 4425944 VD
VD's picture

Abe aint gonna shit his Dependz yet¿¿¿

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 20:23 | 4425952 Cacete de Ouro
Cacete de Ouro's picture

Overheard in Neil Strauss intro seminar:

"Why do Japanese 'adult' movies add the blurred pixel bits? Like, what is going in? And also, this must take quite a long time and employ people who would otherwise be available for real work, unless they have employed, like, robots. Is this accounted for in the Japanese labor statistics ?"

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 20:29 | 4425978 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

and how do you know this;)

95% of men enjoy the bodies of young women,

  the other 5% are queer.

     Michael Crichton

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 20:47 | 4426048 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Actually, they use the same software that google/street uses to blur the faces of pedestrians.  

They might have to change the face recongition parameters a bit tho. 

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 20:21 | 4425955 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Helooooo bull trap.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 20:24 | 4425963 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I think it's about time to seriously consider building a Death Star.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 20:33 | 4426004 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

I think they did that already.   The Force was with the Tsunami, and given that we are all ruled by storm troopers these days I suppose it's appropriate.  

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 20:53 | 4426076 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

I'm actually thinking of plowing significantly more into CapEx (obviously not in the USSA though)... If no one else is buying I have more leverage with suppliers, I don't have to worry about maintaining the purchasing power of corporate balance sheet cash, and I would be pre-positioned with capacity to spare (or spin off) and competitive advantage assuming I make it through... and if I don't -- "what difference does it make?"

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 21:19 | 4426173 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

US GDP would Skyrocket to epic proportions!

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 20:32 | 4425991 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

There is a logical explanation, Tylers.

No one needed a furnace this December, thanks to the radiation keeping everyone toasty and warm.

Hellsthematterwitcha?

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 20:36 | 4425996 bdub2
bdub2's picture

There's an old poster, out west, I recall, that says, "BTFD."

and, there's an ol' saying in Tennessee, I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee that says buy the --- buy the fucking --

JUST BTFD." 

I thought that maybe incorporating the greatest solution and advice known to modern man - btfd - with some of the greatest words spoken by one of the many great leaders we've been blessed with lately, that it would help to remind everyone, always, what to do, no matter what. 

 

 

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 20:40 | 4426016 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

There is also an old song, with the chorus...,

  Texas never woulda made it, without old Tennessee.

(Davy Crockett, Sam Houston, et al.)

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 20:43 | 4426040 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Oh god,  not the "End of Japan" thing again.

Isn't that Abe dude still in charge of the print press?  

Can't they just build some more damns?  

Didn't they have some disaster recently that they can pour some "Keynesian" loot on?  

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 20:48 | 4426053 ncdirtdigger
ncdirtdigger's picture

Why invest in machines when you can invest in US Treasuries?

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 21:08 | 4426128 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

3D printers. 4 the win.

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 22:10 | 4426378 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

Gulp!

Tue, 02/11/2014 - 22:29 | 4426437 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Not clear to me whether the orders include or do not include export orders....could be China's to blame or a slowdown in new fab lines, car plants, etc.

Wed, 02/12/2014 - 00:36 | 4426863 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Japan is just floundering . No matter how much QE. 

It's  a precursor to the US. 

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