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The S&P Welcomes Janet Yellen With Best Run In Over 2 Years (But Gold Leads)
For only the 5th time in the last 25 years, the S&P closed up over 1% on Humphrey-Hawkins testimony day. Today's screamfest seems all about a growing "common knowledge" that the economy is weaker than everyone hoped and Yellen will untaper as soon as possible (despite her saying the absolute opposite of that). Stocks surged (S&P's best 4-day run in over 2 years); Credit spreads collapsed. Gold soared to 3-month highs (+5% from Taper). The USD roller-coastered notably on JPY & EUR weakness. While bonds sold off (not un-tapery) the move was very modest (and bond yields have dislocated notably from stocks). Of course, USDJPY was in charge keeping the S&P over 1,800; and Nasdaq in the green year-to-date - Mission Accomplished (but Dow lost 16k into the close). A massive squeeze of shorts in the last few days has doubled the market's impressive performance. VIX tested down to almost 14%. Why not BTFATH, Yellen said there was no bubble so we are good to go?
Fun-durr-mentals - USDJPY provided the crucial momentum ignition three times and finally stocks caught on and searched for technical levels to find stops... notably EM FX did not play after Europe closed
The S&P saw almost its best 4-day swing from low-to-high since December 2011!!
And the Nasdaq is now up 0.5% in 2014...
But Healthcare and Utilities are the biggest winners snce the taper... (as discretionary managed to pull back up to unchanged)...
Stocks and bonds recoupled intraday as taper vs un-taper correlations broke down notably - the last 2 days have seen 5s30s flatten 5bps - thebiggest drop in 3 weeks
But Stocks decoupled from bonds (and macro data) as bad news is great news for stocks once again...
Of course, the "smash your fucking face in" rally in the "most shorted" stocks of the last few days provided the ammunition...
Gold has been on a tear - up 7 of the last 8 days and back up to 3-month highs...
and gold remains the winner since the taper (+4.9%)
The USD had a rollercoaster day - a big surge on the Yellen testimony release at 830, then recovery as she started speaking at 10, and it just went higher as Janet kept talking (so now we get USD strength on an un-taper?? - looks like JPY and EUR weakness were in charge)
Given today's performance (and the last few days) perhaps Axel Merk's cartoon sums it all up (despite the actual words on staying the course from the dovish Yellen)...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: Who was the consistent 15,000 contract e-mini S&P 500 futures (that's $1.35 billion notional) buyer that kept propping up the market every time we faded? (h/t AY!)
Bonus Bonus Chart: There has been a number of comments today about DeMark's 1929 Analog...oh the bravado whan the market rallies - but - as the following two charts show, it is worryingly playing out exactly as it did before with the last few days' surge marking a bounce top...
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According to St. Louis Fed, the Monetary Base has halted it's $100 B/mo growth and as of Jan, added just over $10 B/mo...bout to go negative??? Big change in trajectory since November...prior to taper $10B (now $20B/mo taper)??? Somebody draining the pool???
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AMBNS
click on 1yr or 5yr chart to see big change
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&s[1][id]=AMBNS&s[1][range]=1yr
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&s[1][id]=AMBNS&s[1][range]=5yrs
During periods since '09 when the monetary base was flat, equities have been down / flat and then lifted by anticipation of QE / QE execution. If this pattern holds (particularly w/ record leverage) stocks bout to get clobbered.
Also notable is that golds big upside runs happened during the flat periods or QE runoff periods...
The ES chart has the look of an H&S top in the making. 1819 is a perfect fib retracement for the right shoulder. Volume was greater on the selloff than it was on the ramp to the peak. And volume on the recent rally is lower than the prior sell off.
But since we have every central banker printing fiat like there's no tomorrow, who knows what will happen. That new money has to go somewhere, and we all know its not going into CRE.
Is that a bear eating Tree on the picture?
Ah hell. The 1929 chart is floating around too much.
Tyler,
Take a look at the Average Trade Size stats for the ES during the periods highlighted in your bonus chart. Ther were a flurry of large orders each time.
The -1 ghost is back. He is compensating for his other shortcomings by down voting everyone.
This is obviously the FED fucking up the market. Who else has almost $1B to burn.
Well put.
I would also comment that this 4-day melt-up in terms of S&P points gained in a short period (not preceded by a loss of 10% or more) in the last 20 years has only occured either at or close to market tops or during bear market plunges.
Much like those instances, there is an incredible amount of leverage in the system and even with the present day manipulations it might be hard to find new "buyers" on a consistent basis to keep this afloat for much longer.
The system wants to fart and it is not being allowed to. Afraid it won't be only gas.
Is this off topic?
"U.S. to suspend pension, retirement funding"
SOURCE HERE
Ham-bone: What are you talking about? US Monetary Base is at a current level of 3.734T, up from 3.685T last month and up from 2.749T one year ago. This is a change of 1.31% from last month and 35.81% from one year ago. http://ycharts.com/indicators/monetary_base
V - here are the last five months...after growing by about $100B/mo all '13..Novembers growth was $31B, Dec $13B...and likely going negative in next month...
2014-01: 3,749.462 Billions of Dollars
2013-12: 3,736.789
2013-11: 3,705.077
2013-10: 3,610.306
2013-09: 3,508.808
This slowdown is way in excess of tapering and looks more like reverse repo's kicking in
I think Hammy's trying to say that the growth in monetary base is slowing since the start of 2014 for whatever reason. Of course if u look at the times when it wasnt growing like in 2011 to 2012, the stock market didnt do as well but in 2013, the growth in monetary base was consistently higher throughout the year which caused the S&P to keep skying to new highs.
One month dont mean shit of course but we should keep this information on the lookout to see if the monetary base rebounds or not in Feb.
what you said.
damn, this is the best week of the year! my miners exploded, my gld exploded only my slv is lagging
PMs Bitches!!!
Me too. Great week so far, I'm recovering my longs on certain positions plus others
friday morning NUGT was near 35 - 47 today
I bought at 34 watched it go to 38 got stopped out at 35 and see it 47 today....i should start a news letter that reports all my stops...i will become rich and so will my subscibers....win win
lol ; i sold too early and also let go of SLW and GG
gofo
1m 2m 3m 6m 12m -0.03400 -0.02000 -0.00400 0.058000.12600
I wish to capitulate now. Is there a sign-up sheet or something?
Re: Is there a sign-up sheet or something?
Yeah, but most people can't handle the process.
You've got to go to Krugman's site and publicly acknowledge the wisdom of (often bearded) "Keynesian" economists, and then say the "Keynesian" prayer:
We must borrow more money,
To stimulate demand,
So that jobs are created,
And prosperity ensues,
Then we payoff our loans.
We must borrow more money,
To stimulate demand,
So that jobs are created,
And prosperity ensues,
Then we payoff our loans.
there is no borrowing at this point. it is printing. please inform yourself.
nobody is 'lending' them money, except that slow sucking sound of any of your savings or 401k not in the stock market, it's getting sucked up.
for every dollar you have on some account or balance sheet somewhere, they just keep printing more and lowing the value of it.
what's with the 4:10 massive volume sell off on the NASDAQ e mini 100?
It's not current untaper that the 'market' is celebrating, but the knowledge that if things get the slightest bit rocky our central planners will backstop this in every way possible, overt and covert. The banksters have total control over the printing press and they celebrate this daily. Until something threatens the product of the printing pres (the dollar) there will be no sleep lost on Wall Street.
Doug Noland makes the same mistake. He's talking about some strong resolve to actually taper this time and this should be taken more seriously. I see no sign of balls in Washington or Mariner Eccles, they will cave like they always do and 'investors' will front run this knowledge till the cows come home.
Uhhh, the tapering is happening in much greater size than the Fed's $20B/mo slowdown, check the halt in the growth of the monetary base...was growing about $100B/mo all '13...now down to $10B/mo and likely negative next month...this is an engineered collapse.
thank you Captain Obvious!! you're our hero!
booo yaaahhh!!! bring on the debt ceiling!! daddy needs new all time highs!!
Paging Ms. Yellen, There is a gentalmen at the front of the store that would like his ass and face back, thank you.
Ok, ok, I admit it. I was a buyer. I'm over extended a bit, 1.35 billion is allot even for me, but I just couldn't stop hitting the buy button.
Aluminium says a 50% decline is coming.
Does this guy have a website or newsletter?
bears getting blown the fuck out!
Nothing else matters.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waBb-UM5m4g
the question you have to answer Yid is, why would they do that? why would they 'yank the fucking lights out' knowing they can shake out a little leverage and pull rates lower with a little correction every now and again. of course, this is all an aside from the collateral shortage argument, but the Fed's not even at 40% of the market yet.
i don't see this ending for a while, which means the market keeps going for as long at the Fed has available the threat of hitting the gas pedal, taper or no taper.
9% rise on my shld short.....i'll let all of you know when i get stopped out for a small fee
Enjoy your socialism fuckers Im outa here! RIP USA
Re: Enjoy your socialism fuckers Im outa here! RIP USA
Those in the top 20% have been for about 60 years now.
What non-socialist country you going to, China?
Your rocket ship to the moon is taking off huh star man?
tnx below 3.00. nothing else matters. party on.
What PM short squeeze? These are settled in cash.
<--------------------Dow 20,000
<--------------------Dow 10,000
add those two numbers together and multiply the sum by 1.2; that is where we are headed.
CNBS has already marched out the "pro" explaining why gold should go back to 1000 now that the equity correction is over. The puppetmasters' fear of real money is becoming increasingly evident.
Gold Goes Vertical, Breaks $1,290 During Janet Yellen Testimony
Gold goes vertical with short squeeze in action after the $1,270 level today. The highest print was $1,292 so far and the real game of music chairs will be started after $1,300 and tomorrows headlines. The big boys are loaded as well as flood of articles positive for Gold in WSJ, Reuters and Bloomberg can indicate. General public is still chasing the last Bubble in the general equites and GDX - ETF with Gold miners is breaking above 200 MA today. The real reason for the run are actual Chinese numbers from Koos Jansen report of 2,181 t of Gold consumed in China in 1213 and the coming shortage of physical Gold.http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/gold-goes-vertical-breaks-1290-durin...
..."onus Chart: Who was the consistent 15,000 contract e-mini S&P 500 futures (that's $1.35 billion notional) buyer that kept propping up the market every time we faded? (h/t AY!)"
A PINKO COMMIE! Who else?
"Get you bags here, Get your bags here!!" "Get them while they're cheap!!" The very well-trained "investors" have bought the dips and bought the ATHs in preparation for doing what they've been prepared for...stepping up to hold very stinky bags of $hit.
Thank you sir, may I have another?
Jay Taylor on our fraudulent monetary system:http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=U-nf8625_136-U%3aSGRCF-2014...
She's obviously no Alan Greenspan.
At least..."she's no Alan Greenspan version 1.0."
She doesn't appear to be Alan Greenspan version 3.0 either.
I'll move beyond "Interplanet Janet" at some point.
Tesla had an interesting day.
http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ORB?source=search_general&s=orb
I knew it! She's a secret space traveller!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67SrXlvyrv8
one day someone will explain the 70's to me...
How about the past 252 trading days compared to the 252 starting on 12/11/1950?
How about the past 252 trading days compared to the 252 starting on 12/11/1950?