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Market Update: Gold Surges As Bond Bulls Purge
UPDATE: Trannies and Industrials are now red...
Gold has pressed up to almost $1,295 this morning - fresh 3-month highs - as silver and WTI crude also rise notably. The S&P 500 continues its inexorable USDJPY-inspired levitation (and is set for 1,900 by Monday morning at this rate) though remains negative year-to-date (for now) and a small roll-over in JPY is dragging stocks off their highs for now. US Treasuries are offered with the belly underperforming as 5Y reached 2-week highs at 1.56%.
The SPJPY 500
Gold is at fresh 3-month highs...
And Treasuries are worsening...
It seems Laszlo Birinyi was "off" with his timing call for 1,900 by end of June - at this rate we'll be there by 4am Monday morning...
Charts: Bloomberg
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So GS was right?
There's gotta be an angle.
I'll sit this one out and continue stacking when they crush it, I mean , take profits.
Something has got to snap. I thought it was snapping last week... but then this insane rally in the S&P. At some point the screws will fall out of this tinfoil "market".
For those who follow technicals on gold (which have worked very, very well the last two years during this decline)that's a very nice cup and handle. Quite bullish.
Miners are making a nice wick off the 200 day average they broke over yesterday. That chart is looking bullish.
I say that with my fingers crossed.
For those who follow ACTUAL technicals you need equations like ln(silver) = gold x 3/2635 + 19/12
NOT pictures drawn at a whim, like "cup and handle" having no math, which I lovingly refer to as "making shit up"
THIS is technical: http://flic.kr/p/f5bHkJ
pictures-in-clouds is not.
Well, this is as good an explanation as any -
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/scary-1929-market-chart-gains-traction-2014-02-11
If this correlation holds we needed a big uptick before heading over the cliff. Enjoy iy while you can.
The problem is, it has so much "traction" now, that it probably won't happen. I give it about a 1% chance at this point.
Looks like Silver was trying to play catch up with Gold this morning too.
For a change, it actually moved much more aggressively:
Live Silver Chart: http://www.pmbull.com/silver-price/
Gold may tickle 1300 today.
But not enough. As visible here http://flic.kr/p/f17z1s the trend-equation for the curve is ln(silver) = 19/12 + gold x 3/2635
but 19/12 is a fair bit higher than 1.537 yet that's what you get with ln(20.28) - 1291.84x3/2635 = 1.53885
To hit the centerline of the trend-curve would put silver at 21.20 for the same price of gold, up 4.5%
Try doing some real technical analysis instead of the nonsense that passes for it & it wasn't a surprise at all.
Back-testing, bitchez.
http://flic.kr/p/enJ7Cs
Sh*t, so goldman was right... ? xD
perhaps they'll be right before they're wrong....
best,
John Kerry
Goldman has been right about every single move in gold for a year now.
I guess you missed the $1050 call.
apparently I missed one.
I want to see some $1800 gold again
I want to see some $1100 gold, before seeing that.
My stack isn't high enough :(
I want to see 1400 first and unload it into your stack
I'm ready for $18,000 Gold. At that point I'll start salvaging operations at my "boating accident" sites.
Me too. My goal is a kilo before the moon shot.
If you'd like, be about a year.
Personally I'd just like to see more gold in my hand & I imagine the fiat price being lower is what helps that happen.
miners can easely double from here on out!
From Indian Jones: "Asps. Very dangerous. YOU go first."
From Indiana Jones:
"Indy! Henry! Follow me. I know the way! Ha!"
You're naive. A mining stock is a stock. a piece of paper. A mine is a hole in the ground with a lier standing next to it. Stick to the Silver; forget about Stocks.
Hm, someone knows something that we don't!
Someone always knows something we don't know. That is the essence of insider trading and market manipulation.
<When too-big-to-fail was institutionalized rampant and obvious manipulation was soon to follow.>
I generally accept that fact.
What has been fun to watch is silver mining stocks go up while the metal price has languished between 20-20.50. Judging from the mining stocks I think silver has to be headed up.
But I am an optimistic asshole sometiimes so I'll sit and wait with the rest of you.
There are just 2 words to consider in predicting future Gold prices. MARKET SHARE. So many trillions in fiat and so few portable hard assets. There is only one direction for the notional value of PMs. " ONE OF THESE DAYS........TO THE MOON ALICE !"
It will go through some major corrections first.
When margin requirements are increased to 100% we will finally know the true price of gold. (or the comex closes)
They've tried it with natural gas...hasn't worked too well.
This is in spite of the biggest energy production boom in US history.
The dollar has moonshot, prices might be starting to "level" with global (hyper inflated) rate.
I'm starting to have some serious doubts about the trade deficit numbers coming out of China but we'll see.
Interesting stories about dealers selling new cars and shipping them directly to China actually.
He olde "I'm just a poor farmer in Sienna but I have a Ferrai this guy left here over sixty years ago in my barn out back."
In other cheery news Blake Griffin of the L.A. Lakers smacks Justin Bieber to the floor in a Hollywood Starbucks. Reality bites.
I believe that was a satirical article and the event never took place. Though I with it had
BUMMER ! Well at least gold is still up.
In other cheery news Blake Griffin of the L.A. Lakers smacks Justin Bieber to the floor in a Hollywood Starbucks. Reality bites. (Clippers, not Lakers.)
Janet Yellen's melon is ginormous. I saw a pic of her today and she has this tiny body and this huge fucking head. She reminded me of Jack, from Jack in the Box.
Now, back to your regularly scheduled program.
It's a trait sought by Hollywood; big heads translate well on cameras.
wwaaiiiitt!! i have more fiat to exchange please!!
So if I have 39gs in student loan debt, how many ounces of gold should I have to come out clean when the fiats collapse? any advice for thought would be appreciated..
10oz. to be absolutely sure.
Student debt, mortage, living to the standard you're used to or what to live at? There's NEVER enough. Just keep on stack'in while you still can.
When fiats collapse your student loan is nil and void. Don't lose sleep over it. They may try and enlist you to go to fight one of their wars and will use the loan as a stick to beat you with.
Fiat collapse is the end of their world. Don't let it be the end of yours.
$5-8 dollars higher is a "surge"?
Up from the $1180 bottom is a surge.
These baby moves are nothing compared to what is coming.
ES 1900 is old news, thats a given, will we hit 2500 by SEP or DEC is what I wanna know.
Some manipulator just got up to take a piss is all.
1300 is an important pscyh point, it gets there then it will get some traction...
Blythe has been put on ice. JP has covered its short position and is now ready for anything.
In the context of current bankster mortality patterns, I'm sure Blythe would find that language chilling.
How long before they crush this rally and drop the price back down? I just sold all my paper silver and want to buy some physical at a lower price. If you want to make a quick buck check out USLV. It's leveraged three times and in these short rallies you can make a killing, up 20% in the last two weeks. Play with the paper and lock in your gains and buy physical.
http://scharts.co/1bYp4ym
Ya, not bad. I see ETF decay but not bad. Cheaper now than the reverse-split AGQ though HZU (tsx) is still 2x & moving decently (low share price too)
Just eye-balling the chart & using the calculator by hand for now, I came up with this equation mapping silver spot to USLV prices:
silver 3.92 / 2175 = USLV. As you can see from the overlay chart, USLV has pulled down from where it matches the spot price, and this has happened many times, but the prices have re-joined after many times as well.
At today's USLV price it could rise a good 20% or silver could drop a good 5% for those prices to re-join.
While this is not the "right way" to do it those lower prices for USLV pop out of this equation:
silver 3.92 / 2610 = USLV so that does not give the "right answers" where the correlation is tighter.
That's what I get for not using a spreadsheet & downloading the price-data for every day to do this.
Effectively though that puts the ETF acting as a 3.92x not a 3x which is decent.
In fact, running some more numbers, I found that a constant of 2591 was generally accurate.
Given the log-scale compression one can apply to the date-scale for gold & silver, and the general finding I have of gold repeating the 2008 drop to 2009-2011 rise IF re-scaled inverse-log (exponential),
this would put gold to 3500 in around 3 years. This would put silver to ln(silver)=3500 *3/2635 + 19/12 roughly, or,
ln( $261.95 ), and $261.95/oz silver puts USLV to ($261.95 3.92) / 2591 = $1,163,988.60 per share.
Good pick. I think I'll pick some up a.s.a.p. I won't stop stacking but a multiplier like that sure is nice to come across.
I like my AGQ options but they do expire. USLV doesn't. It stands the same risk as all paper trades going to zero, hence the need to keep stacking real atoms.
Given in that time frame JUST 5 SHARES would be 5,819,942.99 and now 5 shares would ONLY cost 249.20 before fees, it seems smart to do something silly like get 5 to 10 shares, which is laughably small, and forget about it.
If it doesn't pan out in 3 years who cares. What's $250 thrown at 3 years? Nothing, cheap as an option but with a much bigger payout and no risk of time expiry.
Whoever gives you a -1 is an absolute retard with math - probably the same people that read thermometers backwards as if larger numbers meant "it's getting colder"
Now the Yeller hath spoken, and lo she was not as dovish as foretold, and the infidels wept and gnashed their teeth while selling their bonds in droves.