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If Retail Sales Miss, Expect To See A Lot More Of This Chart
Now that we have entered the Post Taper world, at least until the data gets so horrendous that the Fed is forced to admit defeat and resumes Untapering, here is a cliff notes version of the "reality" narrative as spun by the media and pundits: if the data is "good" it is because of the recovery; if the data is "bad" it is due to the weather.
Which is why when retail sales are reported in a few minutes, we expect nothing less than more weather scapegoating. In fact, courtesy of Guggenheim's Scott Minerd we can almost predict with surgical accuracy just how bad the retail sales miss will be based on the series' correlation to average January temperatures. Because, you see, when it is snowing outside people just don't use their computer to go to amazon.com and order negative margin loss leaders for Jeff Bezos...
Minerd's take
The effects of December’s frigid temperatures have already been seen in recent U.S. economic data releases. With January temperatures more than three degrees colder than average, it is likely that economic activity will continue to be depressed in the first month of the year. Retail sales show a particularly strong correlation with temperatures in January, suggesting that data for January will likely show restrained growth.
Of course, on the off chance that retail sales should pull a Services ISM and surge, beating expectations, the narrative will quickly be flip-flopped to where the recovery is so strong and the $17 trillion US economy so resilient, it even managed to overcome the effect of snow in the winter.
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sorry baby... no milk for you... it snows...
STARVE!!
Most web sites have retail sales report in small print. No banners anywhere celebrating the miss
What happened to the CNBS countdown clock to Jobless claims?
I was also "shocked" that MSNBS would risk losing the massive ratings Morning Joe brings in to run the Russia v Slovakia hockey game which is going up against the US v Slovenia hockey game.
Does Minerd knoiw he has three more years of bad weather ahead???
So he's out now, wasting his weather blame ammo.
Brilliant..
Bad weather should actually boost retail sales because people don't have many other options to entertain themselves than go to a mall to get out of the weather.
Yeah there's nothing better than pulling on your best sweater and driving to the mall in 8 inches of snow. So much better than sitting home and getting drunk watching ladies figure skating...
One of the South Korean women should be seized and cloned.
They're going to the mall to GET WARM. Heating costs - propane, narutal gas and heaatign oil are all WAAAY UP.
Of course it's not like they have any money to spend at the mall since tehy spent it all heating their house.
Our brilliant government and economists say a hurricane increases economic activity but a snowstorm stifles it. Maybe if the snowstorms broke enough windows the economy would improve.
Its Bush's fault.
I'm just glad Obama cut the deficit in half......that was close!
My sarcasm and wit might be lacking today due to 15 inches of snow in my driveway. It's still snowing hard too.
Fuck you Al Gore and all you socialist/commie "global warming scientists".
you should get yourself some kids so they can clean up your driveway when they turn 6 years old.
I mean, a butler is expensive and even those won't clean up driveways.
It's worth it...
Porn cock snow amounts, lovingly sprinkled with an inch of rain, gently frozen and delicately pushed to and fro by out of work construction workers with a plow and a 12 pack of Budweiser... is all a good reason to stay inside and cook a steak for breakfast before a well deserved wank and nap, eh?
should be no problem then with all the global warming. [/sarc.]
Overall, the trend is towards higher average temps - which we have been experiencing - and along with that trend you get GREATER EXTREMES - which we have been experiencing
However, following past history - if you warm up the Arctic and Greenland enough, and dump enough cold water in the North Atlantic you CAN shut down the Gulf Stream which has DRASTIC effects that lead to a new ice age for Europe and Norht America
What a load of shit.
no.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/global-cooling-is-here/10783
http://www.rtcc.org/2013/09/23/global-cooling-how-will-the-ipcc-explain-...
http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/05/26/to-the-horror-of-glo...
Well, the actual data suggests cooling. Not increased variability. Cooling. And not because of the atmosphere, but the ocean.
http://isthereglobalcooling.com/
Therefore, carbon emissions cause the opposite of what was previously "certain."
Eastasia, Oceania...
In a few years, people who still talk about global warming or climate change will be called "cooling deniers." And it will be a crime to deny or question any aspect of the cooling.
And The One will look him upon his decrees, and decide that they are good.
If the bizarre weather patterns don't change very soon you should consider ag futures. DBA is at 25 now, I bet it doesn't stay there. Crops tend to do best in boring predictable weather. Aw, go ahead and speculate now, don't wait, someone has decided it's time for the ponzi to end.
Hard to win in that game when the big boys are playing
It would seem to be axiomatic that people go out less in colder weather, but they therefore order more deliveryt, rent more movies from amazon and itunes, and probably drink more.
So what about a chart reflecting sales of pizza and beer?
In any event that chart is so confounded and ill-conceived that Mr. Minerd should be given a position at CNBC post haste.
is bad bad?
http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=461211&cust=mam&year=201...
Highlights
The consumer took a break in January. Overall retail sales in January fell 0.4 percent, following a decrease of 0.1 percent in December (originally up 0.2 percent). The market consensus was for a 0.1 percent dip.
Autos pulled down the total. Motor vehicle & parts declined 2.1 percent, following a decrease of 1.8 percent in December. Excluding autos, sales were unchanged after gaining 0.3 percent the month before (originally up 0.7 percent). Analysts called for a 0.1 percent rise. Gas station sales increased 1.1 percent after jumping 1.5 percent in December. Excluding both autos and gasoline, sales slipped 0.2 percent after rising 0.1 percent in December. The consensus was for a 0.2 percent rise.
More detail coming.
The consumer took a break in Janaury. That may be the funniest fucking thing I've ever read on EconoPray, and that's saying something.
Amazon should have higher sales for the respective periods, right? No one going out, clicking for slankets & underarmour gear between cumshots.
It's supposed to be 55 and sunny here in my part of Colorado. But I'm buying nothing but seeds and fertilizer. I can taste the fresh salads and salsa already. I feel for my southern brethren, but to the folks in New England you all look like fools shrieking like chicken little everytime it snows. It's freaking winter, grab your boots and your shovel and man up!
Most in the NE ARE used to dealing with it. This winter is actually pretty typical of what winters were like when I was a kid.
It's the South and South East that aree freaking out. They don't even have plows in most cities down there.
Actually, it's the Weather Channel that is freaking out. For a group that is supposedly all about "weather" it sure scares the shit out of them.
Nobody has any money for discretionary stuff; and that is exactly what the current government wants.
Backdoor Barry Puppet has orders to kill America, and, since he hates America above all else, he relishes the opportunity!
There is not 1 single Authority who will stop this destruction. We must assume "they" are all in agreement!
Sitting here home from work (14 inches of snow) watching HGTV Rehab Addict. Nicole Curtis is HOT, and her squeaky voice is quite the turn-on.
All upvotes to Nicole.
Funny thing that economists never understand about stats. Correlation doesn't equal causation.
Get yourself a hot latina babe give her 5 kids, dont Marry her! She'll get 600bucks per kid free health care and food stamps! Bamm youre good!