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Initial Jobless Claims Miss; Back Above 8-Month Average

Tyler Durden's picture




 

At 339,000 initial jobless claims, this is the 3rd miss in thelast 4 weeks and back above the 8-month average suggesting that the best in the layoff trajectory of this 'recovery' is over. Continuing claims remains slid modestly and, of course, emergency benefits remain at zero. Of course, as we showed here, it is not layoffs (and thus initial jobless claims) that matters - what is crucial is that there is no hiring...

 

 

As the chart below shows, using the most recent JOLTS data, while historically the hires and cumulative job change numbers have tracked each other almost perfectly, in the current environment, hiring is far below where it should be if one were to believe the headline job numbers.

 

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Thu, 02/13/2014 - 09:44 | 4431832 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

SNOW! I CALLED IT FIRST!

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 09:48 | 4431840 flacon
flacon's picture

This should be good for stocks. Red is the new green. Bullish! 

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 09:51 | 4431850 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

The red banners they put up on good reports are absent from the financial web sites

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:25 | 4431972 playnstocks
playnstocks's picture

They will be pushing "should you be buying the dip", "we're off the lows" ,"what are you buying here","is this a good time to buy"..and the most pushed excuse "is this weather related"  mostly formed in questions.

Whether it's the weather or not it is still bad econimic data. I wonder why we dont hear the "pent up demand" will save us when spring comes..?

 

 

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 09:50 | 4431851 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Head of the CBO just said no jobs is a good thing.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 09:53 | 4431858 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

gives people more time to spend money!

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 09:56 | 4431863 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Perhaps spend some quality time on the USPS shooting range.....they just put in one hell of an ammo order.

 

Speaking of which....does anyone know where I can find any 22LR?

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 09:58 | 4431874 imapopulistnow
imapopulistnow's picture

More part-time workers than last year = more initial claims.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:12 | 4431935 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

GZG, I gave on on the 22LR ammo and bought a 22 pellet gun. Plenty of ammo for it....for now. Best hurry now that I have posted this. 

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:18 | 4431946 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

I'm on it. When I couldn't get any ammo I delayed buying reloading equipment and components....big mistake.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 09:49 | 4431843 glaucon was right
glaucon was right's picture

No no no...It is chilly wind this time.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 09:47 | 4431844 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Damn, you beat me Sudden Debt. :)

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 09:50 | 4431845 texas sandman
texas sandman's picture

Long EBT cards.  

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 09:50 | 4431846 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

If I only had a PhD in economoics I would be able to completely ignore these charts.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 09:50 | 4431847 new game
new game's picture

untaper the taper as the dual mandate states so.

 

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 09:51 | 4431849 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

I shouldn't have to worry about working, my goverment said so. Just send me free shit and I'll vote Demo every time./sarc

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 09:55 | 4431854 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

you raise the minimum wage... AND PEOPLE STILL DON'T WANT TO WORK!!

I...I...I..I just don't know what the glorious leader Osnowo can do much more...

Obama don'tcare... Obama'sIRA...

WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT?!

I guess greece's plan to force unemployed to work for free wasn't that bad if it would have worked...

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 09:59 | 4431873 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Indentured servitude is the new employment.

Long union workhouses, treadmills, and poor laws.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:04 | 4431891 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

you raise the minimum wage

 

That....along with Obamacare, is one hell of a jobs killer.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:08 | 4431904 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

so you say that Obama should introduce government organized workplatoons to make sure people become skilled workers...

could work...

it's how Russia and China did it...

what would marxx say...

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:17 | 4431951 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Heeeyyyy.....we could build a wall, to keep illegals out.....call it the great wall of.....wait we can have a naming contest and raise money......damn ideas are popping up like mad today. Must be the snow and the ice and the cold and....that warm bed sure looks cumfy. 

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:36 | 4432816 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Any walls built will be to keep us from leaving with what little we have left. Only when we have reached the level of the current crop of illegal aliens coming to our country, will they let us leave, and only then in hopes we will be mailing money home.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:08 | 4431913 DOT
DOT's picture

And debtors prisons!

We will need lots of those for the first offenders who will dare to challenge their masters.

Of course ,the second offence penalty is death.

 

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:12 | 4431922 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Long gas chambers and ovens.

Poor is the new Jew.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:26 | 4431986 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

"I have used my pen. I am opening a new homeland for YT in our Southwestern Deserts! You will be notified when your train is boarding. Don't try to escape."

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 09:51 | 4431855 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

Umm just pointing out someone forgot to name the snow storm. You can't blame a complete economic collapse on the weather unless you give the storm a name. Damn people that is spin 101.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 11:16 | 4432158 NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

"Pax"

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 09:55 | 4431867 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Look at the last chart. There is an asymmetry that should be closely considered. The inflection is too smooth, and it is unwavering. Look at the early 2001 recession, nothing like it at all. I'm willing to bet recessions previous to this also look similar to the 2001 recession.

This condition was manufactured by the current administration. This was planned.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:09 | 4431911 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

You are looking at the growth of the falseness of employment data.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:17 | 4431945 BandGap
BandGap's picture

No, I'm looking at a conscious effort to get where we are today. Nature tends to follow cycles very closely. This break is a directed effort. If I saw this just as raw data without knowing what it was I would say it was a programming error OR the start of some sort of a highly directed program.

Think about it, this data should not be this smooth from 2009 on, ESPECIALLY given the EXTRAORDINARY efforts to break away from it. There should be more spikes, or dips, in the top line on the last graph after 2009.

Taylors - can we get this graph interpolated to say, 1970?

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 11:09 | 4432124 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

They change the way they calculate all the numbers making it impossible to do an easy comparison against historical data.

Its part of the propaganda to convince the masses everything is okay as we slide into the limits to growth and the collapse of the economic systems.

It wouldn't do any good to talk about something that can be changed, so they decided to pretend it doesn't exist to keep things propped up until the inevitable collapse.

Don't look for the truth from the news or the government, instead just open your eyes and look around you.

There is no recovery and peak oil guarantees there will not be a recovery.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 09:55 | 4431868 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

Print Ms. Yellen; my goldies go uppa.  Patience.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 09:58 | 4431869 gwar5
gwar5's picture

No layoffs yet. Mass firings will begin when BHO decides to let Obamacare law kick in and millions of workers get dumped.

 

But you won't ever know that. Because a new Obama law now says that the IRS can punish companies that say they fired people because of Obama's law.  Good news is that when millions get dumped on the bread lines, another Obama law raised their minimum wage prospects to $10.10/hr.

 

 

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:03 | 4431890 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

The IRS can punish theeese nutz.

Fucking Obama and his decrees...

I'm not really a Rush kinda guy, but the man has his virtues:

 

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2014/02/12/stalinist_lawlessness_compa...(The+Rush+Limbaugh+Show+-+All+Content)

 

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:23 | 4431971 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

The end result is a 100% command economy, with no private businesses. Everything will be owned by The Premier and The Party.

If you are willing to kick back, an EBT card is in your future!

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:30 | 4431991 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Jobs will pay into EBTs.  Didn't you ge the memo?

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:45 | 4432040 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

Hey, you keep talkin like that, and they're gonna turn off your chip, man.

 

See you in the Hope Camps.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:46 | 4432867 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

The don't want to own it as that would imply responsibility for it. They just want to control everything from a respectable distance so as to claim none of it as their doing. If there is anything we should be able to agree on here, it is that this government will go to any lengths to avoid taking responsibility for ANYTHING that could be perceived as negative. And when it is unavoidable, we see what happened last week where their own lackey's analysis showed O'care was going to eliminate jobs, so they turn on a dime and suggest that to not have a job was "freedom". No fucking lie is too big for these criminals and I am convinced they will be expressing their love and concern for each and every one of us, while they are slipping the blade between our ribs. This is way fucked up.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 09:56 | 4431870 DCon
DCon's picture

untaper that taper Mrs Y

 

 

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 09:57 | 4431871 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

Somehow, this is all the tea party's fault.

 

Because racisms.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:02 | 4431881 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Jefferson Davis' fault.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:01 | 4431882 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

this is all the tea party's fault.

 

aka WackobirdsTM

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:47 | 4432872 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

No, no, no...I'll take the blame. Fuckem. Fuckem all.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:01 | 4431883 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Guess the weather didn't stop people from submitting claims. Anyway, it doesn't seem to matter anymore to Wall Street.

Go long vacant storefronts and bulldozers. Salvaging will be big business in the future. All those vacant storefronts will need to be knocked down.

Demographics as well.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:04 | 4431894 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

S&P futures are now higher than it was prior to this horrible number.  We are rallying on this craptastic news!

 

Thank you Mr Yellen.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:13 | 4431931 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

Cats and dogs have been living together for quite some time now.  

 

The complicated irrationality of ignorance rules the street.  Still, more bad news awaits, and the day is not over yet.

 

I see a bad moon rising...

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:22 | 4431964 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

It is all about pride and ego.  They were wrong about everything.  But they are not going to let you make profit off of their failures.  It is all coming from the top.  Stocks have to go up when the morons in charge speak because anything else is an insult.  Stocks have to go up when their policy failures are visible.

This is how you know it is all going to end very badly.  Your 10% gold in your portfolio is going to end up being 100% one way or the other.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:20 | 4431961 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Backdoor Barry has a large market for rent-a-dicks. Plenty of work there, if you can "handle" it.

 

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:23 | 4431973 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

I guess all those 55 year olds decided not to retire after all...

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:24 | 4431981 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

American Idle.

Maybe we will get a new reality show where we can vote on who is the best at doing nothing.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 10:33 | 4431999 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Great idea.  They can have it photographed by a photographer that does not move the camera too.  Just set up web cams in each room and send it out.  Low cost trash tv!

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:51 | 4432889 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Jest if you like. We see how much they are spending on TV adds for O'care. With the ass nuzzling entertainment types, you can bet they are piloting a reality show, showcasing people who's lives have been changed by the liberation from work that O'care endows them with. Think about it. Hillary 2016.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 11:56 | 4432346 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Stocks are exploding straight up.  Same only Gap down 20 points and rally all day to newer highs market.   Clearly none of this terrible news coming out day after day matters at all and the only way to trade these days is to buy the dip.

 

for fucks sake look at this market, it ticks down .25 and then up 5.00

 

it is going straight, fucking, up.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 12:03 | 4432358 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

Algos has no other choice.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 14:50 | 4433181 spork
spork's picture

Love the liars at the BLS.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 18:33 | 4434108 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

We just hired our 99th employee.  Please tell the remaining 2500 people in the waiting room the bad news...

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