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Japanese Stocks Are Crashing As USDJPY Loses Critical Support

Tyler Durden's picture


Investors said Sayonara to the crucial 102.00 level for USDJPY tonight and while S&P 500 futures are leaking lower (down 7 points from their earlier highs), the Nikkei 225 has collapsed over 430 points and is pressing one-week lows. This is the lowest the Nikkei 225 has been relative to the Dow in 8 months.


The S&P has retraced the post-European close rally and decoupling from JPY moment in today's day-session...


But the Nikkei 225 is collapsing tick for tick as USDJPY loses 102 once again...


As the Nikkei 225 is now at its lowest price relative to the Dow for eight months...


The NKY/SPX relationship implies either notable JPY strength (to 97 against the USD), a significant rally in the Nikkei or a major drop in the S&P in order for the 16-month global macro tourist trade to revert to the mean...the last time the FX and equity markets were this decoupled was when the Nikkei collapsed (and mean-reverted) in May 2013.


With the Nikkei at one-week lows, its now 700 points below the post-Yellen exuberance.

The broader TOPIX Index is down 4.25% from Tuesday's post-Yellen highs.


Could be a lot more pain to go if CFTC CoT data on JPY shorts is anything to go by...


Charts: Bloomberg


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Thu, 02/13/2014 - 23:59 | 4435269 SilverIsMoney
SilverIsMoney's picture

As the metals truck away...

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:21 | 4435306 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

That's pretty shocking, actually.  How long has it been since that was last a common utterance?  Almost 2 years, according to my foggy memory.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 07:09 | 4435816 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

The morning gold breaks 1304 and silver breaks 20,50 no ZH article...?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 07:30 | 4435849 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

ZH doesn't post positive financial news, even if it's metals. OTOH, if it's metals, is there really any positive financial news?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 07:40 | 4435865 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

ok flying thru 100day not important,

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 07:59 | 4435901 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

wahoo.  there's not much positive news out there.....but in the other 99% of the media, even the negative news is spun as positive. 

So, if you're looking for fake daisies and cnbc sunshine, you always have access to it.  if the real thing is what you seek, you're probably in the right place.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 07:10 | 4435823 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Looks like it'll be another great day for the miners, with silver up almost 3% overnight and gold having clearly broken out of it's bear market slump.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:00 | 4435270 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

This whole Japan story has been virtually ignored outside of ZH.  I will be very interested to hear what some of our trader friends re Asia have to say.

But, even to a Bearing with Zero Brain, I can say this is not good.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:04 | 4435286 Frank -THE COIN -
Frank -THE COIN -'s picture

It is Amazing that so few Understand it. They go on to push the connection aside not knowing that they are intertwined.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:15 | 4435312 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Japan is in the process of being jettisoned.  I could have said they have been voted off the economic island, but that would be rayciss and highly insensitive to the people of the world's (allegedly) 3rd largest economy.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 03:17 | 4435630 mt paul
mt paul's picture

the sushi


is over cooked..

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 07:14 | 4435827 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Perhaps Kyle Bass will be proven right again.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:17 | 4435303 Tasty Sandwich
Tasty Sandwich's picture

While I'm not a trader, I've found that often people who think they have a decent understanding of economics (or have taken a few classes in college or read Krugman's blog religiously) will point to Japan as proof that the US can keep borrowing and spending indefinitely.

So, a crisis in Japan is unthinkable to the "mainstream".

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:18 | 4435327 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I have a decent knowlege of Economics, since I'm an economist by training, and I believe no such thing.  I believe there is merely a time delay between Japan and the US.  Same play book, couple of decades difference in the timeline.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:27 | 4435343 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

"decades"?? You mean weeks??

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:33 | 4435347 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

No, I mean decades.  Japan has shown that ~250% debt/GDP is where the wheels start to come off (having a printing press doesn't help you climb out any more).  We got a ways to go.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:52 | 4435406 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

Right...okay...sure...but for the fact the Dollar is the world's reserve currency and not the Yen and when Japan collapses the entire world debt ship sinks, where all eyes quickly focus on the dollar. I mean look, anything can happen....your idealistic sloooow repeat of Japan in US, is far fucking fetched,

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:56 | 4435426 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Japan has been going down for some 25 years or so.  We have only been going down since 2007, a mere 7 years...

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 01:10 | 4435458 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

Oh, you guys are kidding right? This is funny..haha, now I get it. The US has been going down since the Pinto came out. The only thing keeping it going has been moving factories to Asia, getting the world to love Brad Pitt and swallow dollars. What on earth would make you suggest that the US has X years to follow Japan to a collapse?? Japan might even  be preferable in a complete collapse for cultural reasons. Gimme break plz, 20 years, knee slappin' funny!!

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 01:29 | 4435492 mrmister
mrmister's picture

Yes it will not take years only a day when it breaks. These economists don't take all variables into account. Just take a look at Georgia with the snow. And that is just snow.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 04:42 | 4435696 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Comparisons to Japan are absurd.

The Japanese could endure-with stoic discipline-stress that would have Wal-Mart nation driving their electric scooters off cliffs and EBT morons burning down their own section 8 housing in "protest".

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 07:08 | 4435814 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

LMFAO!  +100

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:16 | 4436205 all-priced-in
all-priced-in's picture

A fucking snow storm causes the EBT crowd to start shooting each other over a loaf of bread.

I guess we need more government regulation of bakeries and grocery stores.

Someone needs to get Elizabeth Warren involved - people are suffereingt through no fault of their own.  

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 01:09 | 4435453 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

We may see soon. USD is fast approaching multiyear trend support, somewhere about 80. It's always likely to bounce but if not it could be a quick trip to 73. Below there is chaos <cue creepy music for effect>

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 02:13 | 4435491 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Yen @ 120 again before 80.

I realize this is highly contrarian.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 02:01 | 4435573 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Economy is symptom of disease, not disease itself.  USA, USA, USA very sick.  Many diseases.  Many disease near terminal.  Many disease debilitating. 

We better off if learn four ways to eat.  One can grow own, scavenge, start business, get job.  Effort must be made.  No free lunch is there.


Fri, 02/14/2014 - 04:12 | 4435683 One of We
One of We's picture

Okay guys give no debt a break.  He did admit to being a trained economist so thats all you really need to know....LM FAO....tell me again what the Ussa produces besides exotic financial book cooking, al-ciaduh terrorists, and very ugly politicians? Besides the firearm industry and the MIC we don't make much and that's just a snake eating its tail....

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 07:12 | 4435828 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

Couple of things. Japan doesn't have reserve currency. We do and I feel we have only yet begun to make the world scream.
Military and the will to use it.
We are almost energy sufficient.

So this continental clown car can with more dictatorship go a lot longer

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 07:32 | 4435853 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Yep, the sky falls slowly.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 09:10 | 4436008 Bindar Dundat
Bindar Dundat's picture

First real debate on ZH for months -- thanks for the insights and my investing position will be on the slow fall side.  

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:37 | 4435362 Tasty Sandwich
Tasty Sandwich's picture

I said people who think they have a decent knowledge of economics.

The comparisons between the US and Japan are, in my view, shaky at best.

The benefits of the USD as a reserve currency aside, Japan's debt was largely internally funded and they ran consistent trade and current account surpluses until recently.

Japan's savings rate was nearly 20% at one point, allowing for that internal funding. 

The US runs consistent trade and current account deficits.

The US savings rate probably hasn't exceeded 10% in decades and a quick glance at FRED has it at 3.9% for December 2013.  Japan's savings rate has fallen significantly since the turn of the century.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 02:47 | 4435617 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

Right Tasty, two completely different economic realities. Just the fact that the US is the reserve currency changes everything, all dynamics. How can you compare a nation whose currency is used worldwide with one whose currency is primarily national? 101 different moving parts to consider.



Fri, 02/14/2014 - 07:43 | 4435870 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Erosion is non-linear. The US started eroding at the same time as Japan, just that we have slightly thicker walls.

Japan and the US are Siamese twins -no matter how healthy one is, if the one dies it's a short time till the other goes, as well.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 09:32 | 4436045 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

I'm not sure how savings rates are calculated, but Amrticans are certanly not Japonese. We're way more animal spirited, savage, rough, knock around take another hit of meth, how fast does that thing go people. We are resources rich continent, in spite of the algores. No one, any where has our size, resources natural and human, our near billion population ( mexico, L America, ...)and comparatively civil politics. Also our political loserers aren't as corrupt and killerish as others political losers.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:56 | 4435425 LostPolarBear
LostPolarBear's picture

So are you saying that the US can keep this up for another couple of decades?



Fri, 02/14/2014 - 01:16 | 4435474 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

I suppose they are using Detroit as example thread plz.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 02:46 | 4435618 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

Globalism 101- When one goes, we all go. That's the plan BTW.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 01:45 | 4435545 IridiumRebel
Fri, 02/14/2014 - 02:05 | 4435575 Omegaman2211
Omegaman2211's picture

Not what way?

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 23:59 | 4435272 blacktusk
blacktusk's picture

Badum chhhssss

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:00 | 4435275 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

Sorry folks, I had to reboot the HFT server. She should be back in the green now.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:06 | 4435289 whisperin
whisperin's picture

Damn I can't believe I'm first to say it.... are we gonna witness a Valentines Day Massacre?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:28 | 4435298 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

I am betting on the Irish...Saint Paddy's Day.

Beware the ides of March, Seamus. 

March, 2000. Ahhh, the good ole days when PALM was the momo du jour.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:13 | 4435307 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

whisperin, spread the love!

+ 1

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:15 | 4435315 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture


Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:06 | 4435290 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

No POMO today, thus the carnage (though delayed).

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:23 | 4435336 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Hmm...  Makes me wonder if tomorrow might be her first test...



Comic Relief Moment:

Two liars are standing on a bridge peeing into the water below.

One of them says "That water sure is cold!"

The other says "And that water's deep too."


Comic Relief Moment Two:

Q: How do you get 30 drunk rowdy Canadians out of the pool?

A: You ask them. 

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:35 | 4435359 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

And the banker says, "That water almost splashes all the way up here."

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 01:01 | 4435431 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Banker, Liar, what's the difference?

Oh!  No joke, sorry....

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 01:36 | 4435519 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Just jump.  Fucking cum guzzling world destorying narcissistic sociopath banker wastes of human skin.  

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:12 | 4435311 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

guranteed when all of us wake up tomm morning, the u.s futures are green and the usd/jpy is back above the 102 level.


come on, its friday, right before a 3 day weekend, no chance these criminals let the market finish red.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:27 | 4435340 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture



although TPTB are trading furiously in the aftermarkets where all the fun is....and juicy vol

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 01:18 | 4435482 theliberalliberal
theliberalliberal's picture

isnt a 3 day weekend the exact time to crash.

TPTB trade after hours.  get out.  come tuesday when the exchange opens for everybody else,  gap down 30%?

not a trader (engineer) so correct me.

the shit always happens on a friday (lately) no?  

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:18 | 4435317 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Oooh's nooos  Not 102. 



Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:20 | 4435328 Spungo
Spungo's picture

Hopefully this spells disaster in the US markets. I have a 5% purchase trailing stop on the 2x leveraged VIX.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:32 | 4435351 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Selling the VIX has been like selling condoms to a unich. 

One day that trade will backfire and the sellers will have their balls cut off...rather quickly. 

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 02:19 | 4435588 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

I bought some VXX today and set a 5% TSL.
Last week I got stopped too early so I missed out most of the spike.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 07:36 | 4435855 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

i fight the fed everyday possible...exept with the vix, THAT is just crazy.

SVXY is the Bernanke product and has paid for most of my miners.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:32 | 4435352 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Blood Sweat & Tears - Spinning wheel (2:32)

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 00:40 | 4435380 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Japanese Crashonomics.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 01:05 | 4435435 USofAzzDownWeGo
USofAzzDownWeGo's picture

how dare you guys hope and wish something bad to happen in the us. are you all a bunch of antisemites or what??? you sick people

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 01:19 | 4435486 theliberalliberal
theliberalliberal's picture

from ur name i assume thats /sarc

ZHs like the band aid ripped of quickly

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 02:10 | 4435582 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Well said.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 02:48 | 4435620 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

There is no US anymore, there's only us and them.



Fri, 02/14/2014 - 01:12 | 4435462 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Get your shotgun Janet, there be black swans in Japan.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 01:13 | 4435469 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Meh, give it another twelve hours and we will be in the green again. 

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 01:39 | 4435524 chump666
chump666's picture

 the AUD broke the 100ema, need it to slide through the 5ema to its feb 13th lows for major risk aversion.

but futures (stocks) this time last asia close were at under 40% neg.  Market still rallied on open.  need something horrific out of china to sink sh*t

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 01:49 | 4435552 chump666
chump666's picture

China military ships close to Australian waters:

Very concerning.


Fri, 02/14/2014 - 02:13 | 4435585 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Really? Why?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 01:39 | 4435527 MaxHedge
MaxHedge's picture

Too late, world is coming to an end (again).  When did ZH start?  Same as it ever was, just the faces change. You are just feeding each other the same psycho babble.  Why bother.  What does it do for you?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 02:10 | 4435581 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Fuck off to of you don't like it here OR don't have anything constructive to offer.

This drop in Nikkei is showing that without continued printing we'd thankfully be reentering 2008.
Got goled, bitchez?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 02:13 | 4435586 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

It gives us hope.  Hope that up is up, down is down, good is good, bad is bad, beer is beer, and gold is best.

"Throw me to the wolves because there's order in the pack"

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 03:44 | 4435654 Shrapnel
Shrapnel's picture


Well stated.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 09:34 | 4436069 forwardho
forwardho's picture

When ever I read A comment scoffing at ZH and it's followers, I ask myself, if it is such a worthless joke of a site,why are you even here? Let alone reading and making inane comments?


Fri, 02/14/2014 - 01:40 | 4435530 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Mr. Janet Yellen, wake the fuck up and don’t fall asleep on the keyboard. You have to start shifting money into the new emerging market shell havens. Didn’t the Bernank train you on this nightly operation? Don’t let us down by starring as the ChairBitch to empty chair../sarc

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 01:58 | 4435565 Omegaman2211
Omegaman2211's picture

I feel like I see this story every other night. Weird.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 02:04 | 4435578 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Kamikaze bitches!

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 02:09 | 4435579 The Wisp
The Wisp's picture

Hearing the Words Bank Holiday, or Seeing a Mushroom cloud, take your Pick, there Both bad..

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 03:02 | 4435624 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Why I will take Mushroom Clouds for $1000, Alex.


As noted previously ZHers like the Band Aid ripped off fast.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 03:18 | 4435632 Rock On Roger
Rock On Roger's picture

I think I choose the bank holiday. I might have a hard time transforming my stack into a suitable shelter if I see a Mushroom.


Stack  On


Fri, 02/14/2014 - 03:40 | 4435650 Omegaman2211
Omegaman2211's picture


Fri, 02/14/2014 - 03:30 | 4435638 mt paul
mt paul's picture

cloud mushroom souffle 

how zen...

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 03:51 | 4435662 USofAzzDownWeGo
USofAzzDownWeGo's picture

I'll be in tokyo next month so you'd better fix this Janet, you fucking k-j-z bitch

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 04:57 | 4435719 glaucon was right
glaucon was right's picture

Steady as she goes...

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 05:00 | 4435726 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture


End the Ponzi!

C'mon!  Five years overdue!

End the lies!  End the banksters! 

Start the hangings already!

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 05:32 | 4435760 Wait What
Wait What's picture

different day same headline. 8 hours and you can be sure the uptrend will resume. like clockwork.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 08:04 | 4435904 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

if investors in Japan's government bonds begin to believe that Abenomics will be successful in dropping the value of the yen and in bringing back inflation it would be logical for owners of  JGBs to move out of the securities and buy foreign bonds or equities. That would place upward pressure on Japanese bond yields and raise the cost of government to service its massive debt.

With the BOJ  set to absorb half of the government bonds planned for sale this fiscal year, domestic investors have already started venturing overseas for higher yielding assets. If this turns in to a tsunami of  money fleeing Japan it will constitute the end of the line for those holding both JGBs and the yen. More on the ecomomy of Japan in the post below,

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 08:06 | 4435906 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Abe has it covered.  Now at yesterday's high.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 08:07 | 4435909 Joenobody12
Joenobody12's picture

No wonder that mother fucker Shinzo Abe wants wars with its neighbors. 

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 08:15 | 4435915 Yellowhoard
Yellowhoard's picture


Metals blasting higher this morning. If you think they will be allowed to trade freely at 8AM Eastern vote up.

If you think they will be monkey hammered with extreme prejudice at 8AM Eastern vote down.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 09:17 | 4436022 forwardho
forwardho's picture

Take it one more step.

If you think it will commence shortly after 10:00 AM EST vote up.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 09:43 | 4436103 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

well sure enough, i said lastnight ( not that it was a hard call bc anyone can predict this bullshit market) that u.s futures would somehow be green in the morning and sure enough they are.


i also said  the usd/jpy would be above the 102 level, i was wrong so far on that, but we know its only a matter of time.


another fucking day of nflx, goog, amzn, fb, twtr, aapl, going green despite all being insanely overvalued.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 21:24 | 4438390 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

ZH posters would do well to remember that correlation does not = causation.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!