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Retail Sales Slide Across The Board, Post Biggest Miss Since June 2012
And so, prepare to see much more of this chart which as we warned will be used as justification to explain why retail sales not only just tumbled, but posted their worst miss since June 2012. Retail sales, which incidentally, just happen to be seasonally adjusted precisely to account for such shocking phenomena as snow in the winter:
- Headline retail sales plunged -0.4% on expectations of a 0.0% print.
- December headline retail sales were revised from 0.2% to -0.1%, which also means that the December data was in fact a miss of expectations of 0.1%, not a beat as was reported at the time, and also means retail sales have now missed three months in a row. We know, we know: the weather.
- Retail sales ex autos were unchanged atg 0.0%, on expectations of 0.1%, with December also revised from a "beating" 0.7% to a miss of 0.3%
- Retail sales ex autos and gas dropped -0.2%, on expectations of a 0.1% increase, with December revised far lower from 0.6% to 0.1%
In other words: yet another confirmation that the US consumer is tapped out thanks to draining his savings during the holiday season, and also hinting that the inevitable untaper is coming far sooner than expected.
Visually:
And before the spin brigade comes out, with their ridiculous justifications that Americans just refuse to shop on Amazon and click on Jeff Bezos loss leaders when it is, gasp, snowing outside in the winter, we wonder how they will expect that even as clothing and sporting goods sales dropped 0.9% and 1.4% respectively, that sales of building material actually rose 1.4% in December.
Perhaps Americans don't buy winter clothing in the winter, and instead purchase patio furniture.
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BTFJSLTTATH
(buy the fucking just slightly lower than the all time high)
The endgame is upon the Fed, and the centrally managed economies, with no way out. Inflationary collapse, or deflationary collapse, it's pretty much the same in the end. Gold and silver will do fine either way.
Who can afford retail anymore?
Don't Fear The Taper
By: The Fractional Reserve Cult
QEs times have come
Here, but now they're gone
Equities don't fear the taper
Nor do bonds, credit or REITs
(We can be like they are)
Come on baby
(Don't fear the taper)
Baby take my hand
(Don't fear the taper)
We'll be able to fly
(Don't fear the taper)
Baby I'm your Chairwoman
La, la la, la la
La, la la, la la
Valentine "markets" are done
Here but now they're gone
Romeo and Juliet
Are together in eternity
(Romeo and Juliet)
91,000,000 men and women every day
(Like unemployed Romeo and Juliet)
91,000,000 men and women every day
(Redefine happiness through hedonic adjustment)
Another 10,000 coming every day
(We can be like they are)
Come on baby
(Don't fear the taper)
Baby take my hand
(Don't fear the taper)
We'll be able to fly
(Don't fear the taper)
Baby I'm your Chairwoman
La, la la, la la
La, la la, la la
Love of rehypothecated debt is one
Here but now it's gone
Came the last night of Fed balance sheet expansion
And it was clear it couldn't go on
Then the door blew open and Mr. Margin appeared
Shadow debt burden burned and liquidity disappeared
The curtains flew open & Mrs. Debtfire appeared
(Saying, "Don't be afraid")
Come on baby
(And "markets" had no fear)
And then VIX ran to her
(Then it started to fly)
It looked backward and said goodbye
(It had become like they are)
It had taken her hand
(We had become like Japan)
Come on baby
(Don't fear the taper)
More cowbell, please.
I've got a fever - and the only cure is more cowbell.
"Easy, guys.. I put my pants on just like the rest of you -- one leg at a time. Except, once my pants are on, I make gold records. Alright, here we go. "Fear... Don't Fear the Reaper" -- take one. Roll it."
Love it - nicely done!!
it doesn't matter, tesla; a car that 99% of the world will never be able to afford in their life is going up 5% per day. nevermind the fact they make no money before the fancy accounting tricks and government credits, its still trading 200$+ on its way to 1000$.
Okay, but how do they engineer an inflationary collapse? All of the money from QE, etc. has gone to the 0.1%, but there aren't that many of them and they spend their money across a narrow range of companies. Unless each of the 0.1% hires 1000 servants and pays them ever increasing wages, that QE money will never flow to the 99.9% for them to spend in an inflationary orgy. The only other mechanism for increasing spendable income is for the government to give ever increasing sums of money to the masses, but they are going in the opposite direction - cuts in extended UE and so on.
I'm so tired of this talk of inflationary collapse, because there is no mechanism to bring that about. Deflation is far more likely.
I'm not arguing with your position, but anecdotally, the top 20% where I live are thriving these last six years. My community was once just a heavily government funded nuclear waste dump, but has now diversified into medical and retail. It's still a heavily government funded nuclear waste dump.
Anyway, not arguing about the eventual outcome.
prepare for the sideways trade all day long or even a rediculous attack on the phony paper prices of the only 2 forms of real money sometime today...
they r desperate and care not about appearances...
stay tuned.....
I think any untaper will occur later this year. They've got to continue a bit more of taper, markets will crash a bit, but they also have to wait for what I think will be an abysmal summer housing season. With house sales peaking in May/June, Old Yeller will have to wait for that data to trickle in to generate cries of "Save us O' Powerful One".
I'm gonna go ahead and say untaper will be anounced afte either the September or December FOMC meeting. Probably September to reignite the wealth effect so we can have a good 2014 holiday spending season.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
Of course if the emerging markets and Europe completely and rapidly go to shit this spring, then perhaps untaper will be anounced in June.
I think were approaching a mid-point or mid-gap recession, along the lines of the 1937/1938 recession that occured during the great depression. Eric Janszen talks a bit about this here:
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php/24555-Hope-and-Fear-%C2%96-P...
I don't see many mantions of Eric on the 'Hedge. I think he's got some pretty good ideas and analyses though he infrequently posts them.
+1 on Eric Janszen...he's got an fresh & interesting take with some killer charts always.
LOL..... Thanks for the first good laugh of the day.
Where the fuck is Biderman? I need me a Biderman fix!
At what point do we hit the "JFB"?
(Just Fucking Buy)
Shocked they made dec look better ....another lie to get through the new year
take a look at Dec again
Too late. I don't EVER look back. I only believe the current story. It supersedes all previous stories. Prior revisions are to be ignored.
Beating expecations ALL the way down.
We've always been at war with EastAsia.
Yep. And if shit gets worse than June of 2012 we are going to need a much bigger chart to figure out the last time things were this bad.
Not my idea of reliving the 70s.
bullish. btw, i held up my end w/ a recent underwear purchase.
I bought moar Obama 2016 bumper stickers. Forward Moar!
I was in a middle to lower-middle class small town recently on a Saturday around noon. Unlike the past, the Walmart parking lot wasn't full. I'd say it was about a third empty. I've been to that town in the past and the parking lot was always filled with people doing their food & other type shopping. The middle class is hurting.
Sad that one would consider those shopping at WM are 'middle class'.
used Salvation Army underwear FTW!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QK8mJJJvaes
Just wait until QE ends altogether
thanks for the laugh +1
You might be waiting a long, long time.
Goddamnit Jim, I said he's dead.
Shopping is not possible, I am heating my house to keep the climate change from freezing me out.
Need Ben to ship over another load of fire wood.
http://abovethelaw.com/uploads/2012/05/wheelbarrow-of-money-cash-300x214...
Holy economy Batman. BUY BUY BUY............Hmmm now what did I do with my money to buy with......
Has anyone noticed how the prior "leader" (such as a Fed Chairman or President) gets out of town just ahead of the latest crisis they engineered. It allows the next person in line to claim plausible deniability when 'dealing' with the disaster they just walked into.
<Heh, I just got here. Blame it on the last guy.>
No such luck for Barack 0bama however. That SOB is lucky but no way that streak rolls on for another 3 years almost.
The shelf life of a low information voters is 5 years....but they're hoping to up it to 6 years with the exemptions.
I predict you'll get a Republican next go-round; it's their turn.
/Fixed
A progressive one please.
New guy:I didn't do it, it was the guy before me. I inherited this mess. .....
Old guy:I didn't do it, things were humming along just fine until the new guy took over.
There seems to be a pattern developing.
<Heh, I just got here. Blame it on the last guy.>
Same play book is used in the corporate world
The "three envelopes" story about CEOs.
The new person then becomes the saviour.
i'm confussed;is bad bad or bad good?
Yes.
thank you that helps. futures improved slightly. bad is good!
no sense to breaking bad...
Honest to God, the same professor, below, had a signature answer to any question with an OR in it: Yes.
We all are confussed.
Honest to God, the best professor I ever had in college had a signature question: "Who's not confused" No one ever ever raised their hand.
We all are confussed.
Depends upon the mood of the HFT computers.
<Walks in a sever room - "Hey, who's in charge around here"?>
Who's in charge??? Not you, Dave........
depends... is the glass half full or half empty?
what is in the glass?
doesn't matter... it's good for ya... that's all you need to know...
well then, full and soon to be empty...(my daily dose of liquid red pill).
West Virginia water.
Yes
Check that, DOUBLE LONG EBT cards. Gotta prime that consumption pump.....
People are only buying Guns, Ammo, Lotto-Scratch off Tickets, Duck Dynasty T-shirts and Grand Theft Auto V. I have a feeling hard liquor sales will start to go back up. And pot sales are very strong in CO. We live in interesting times.
Fuck me thats bullish! 100000 shares of JCP by open!
It's funny that they use the snow as an excuse. The only time I ever see stores packed with people is when snow is coming. Other than that they are ghost towns.
I know! The shelves were wiped out yesterday -- no milk, no bread. WTF?
Only the cutting off of the economic lights to stop fake global warming is tangentially related to weather related retail collapse.
Haven't you figured it out ? Bakers stop baking and cows stop giving milk when snow arrives ;)
I am looking to buy shares Circuit City and Borders. I cannot find the stock symbols of the retail giants....
They've joined fellow whisper stock, Blockbuster.
Time for the retail sales plunge protection team to leap into action and kill those lying statistics.
Obummer was tasked with breaking healthcare...mission accomplished. Shillary will be tasked with nationalizing 401K/IRAs...
I was going to make a purchase on Amazon but it looked cold outside and I wasn't sure the electricity would work so I just turned on my electric blanket, curled up and whimpered...
Do these metrics include sales of gold and silver coins?
US Mint Bullion Coins Soar to Highs in January Saleshttp://www.coinnews.net/2014/02/03/us-mint-bullion-coins-soar-to-highs-i...
U.S. Mint Gold-Coin Sales Jump 63% in January; Silver Tripleshttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-01-31/u-dot-s-dot-mint-gold-coin-s...
So we should see another +50-150+ pop today?
Let me guess, bad weather?
Just add Natual Gas and Electricity and Water in the Retail Sales number and the problem is solved! WTF
Wait until people must go the doctor, buy medicine and find out their affordable care comes with a nice fat deductible that they must pay with money they do not have, on credit cards that hav no balances left.
No wonder the libs are panicking.
"Reggie, my plan to destroy America is going according to schedule!"
"Wonderful, honey. I like your new nightgown. It's sexy!"
Big business for salvage companies knocking down those empty shopping malls.
More and more empty malls. Brick and mortar stores are carrying less and less inventory. Most the times when I go to they don't stock it anymore.
Less brick & mortar jobs, more technology, e-commerce.
Yeah, why rent them out at reasonable rates when you can just bulldoze them instead?
Deer day Yes?
Deer day No?
so what are you guys saying, that the s&p and dow are guranteed to finish in the green today or flat despite the terrible data?
i fully expect the bullshit to continue. the economy has been deteiorating for a long time, yet this bullshit continues.
I read in a news paper yesterday that a Gander Mountain is going to replace the Circuit City that closed all those years ago. It seems to me that building such an outlet would be a complete waste of time and effort due to many reasons: People aren't wrecklessly shopping, and there are no fucking mountains in Illinois.
FFS, why can't we learn from our mistakes? We're not going to buy-and-shop ourselves out of this mess. We need a real economy of real products and real services, not of "financial 'instruments'," and useless ktchotckes.
We're going to need a New Deal and a WPA.
who fucking cares???? NASDAQ up another 10!!!!
Prosperity for everyone!!!!! Pass me some food stamps Barry you wretched bastard!!!!
Pass me the green I need some weed with my hennessey.
January and February will be dismal also.
[quote]...that sales of building material actually rose 1.4% in December.[/quote]
Hey, ya gotta replace broken windows somehow!
$720 to heat in January didnt leave much else to spend..