The Un-Taper? Stocks Up, Bonds Up, Gold Up, Oil Up, USD Down

Tyler Durden's picture

It seems Janet has some work to do on her "communications". Judging by today's follow-through on dismal retail sales data (and a miss for claims), stocks, bonds, and gold screamed higher (and the USD lower) suggesting an increasing crowd does not believe the QEeen's "stay the taper course" meme. The S&P 500 rallied 25pts off early lows - practically in a straight-line, dislocated from JPY-carry, dislocated from bonds, and coupled almost perfectly with gold after Europe close. Nasdaq is up 6 days in a row and back near multi-year highs (+1.5% in 2014) as "most shorted" stocks were ripped 2.5% higher intraday. Gold closed back above $1,300 (outperforming on the week and since Taper); Treasury yields tumbled 6-7bps; and the USD Index dropped 0.5% led by EUR and GDP strength. VIX traded under 14% briefly. Bad news is great news once again. This is the Nasdaq's best 6-day run in 27 months.

 

The Dow is holding around 16,000 and at a 50% retrace of the 2014 losses...

 

The Nasdaq bounced perfectly off its 100DMA and has rallied 6.8% in the last 6 days - its best run since December 2011...

 

This morning saw Nasdaq open right at unchanged for 2014 and found support...

 

As "most shorted" stocks were crushed higher...

 

QE-maven Materials and Discretionary and Homebuilders are leading the way off last week's lows as they anticipated Yellen printing to oblivion... but she didn't!!

 

But stocks decoupled from USDJPY and bonds - and found a new friend in gold...

 

Commodities all rallied today with Gold outperforming...

 

And Treasuries (espeially the long-end) have almost recovered all the post-Yellen losses...

 

FX markets were more volatile with EUR and GBP strength dragging the USD Index lower...

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: The Dow was interesting as Dow futures just managed to tag yesterday's highs (run those stops) and then rolled over into and after the close...

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: The Nikkei 225 is at its cheapest in six months to the Dow...

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Say What Again's picture

I previously posted this on a different thread, but I have some aditional data to mention.

This has been one strange day in the "markets"

Every index has experienced a Ramp-a-palooza even after the dismal job numbers and retail report.  But there is something I found that I felt is worth sharing with Team-ZH.  I track the Average Trade Size (ATS) on a number of assets, but today ES has had some strange behavior.

Beginning at 13:50 the ATS for ES had a noticeable increase.  Then, at 14:37, the ATS abruptly went back to the daily average.  Note that, as of this writing, 13:50 was beginning of the Ramp-a-palooza, and ~14:15 was the end of the Ramp.

The $NDX has had the best 6 day run in over two years, breaking into a 12 year new-high (and we are getting with spitting distance of an All-Time High).  BUT -- The UP Volume was only 60% of TOT Volume for the NDX.  Doesn't look like a stampede to BTFATH.

Not sure what to make of this, but the data is there for everyone to see.

Mr. Chairwoman's picture

After the federal funds rate reached its effective lower bound, close to zero, um, at the end of 2008, uh, the Federal Reserve was, um, forced to provide additional accommodation through tools that, um, were new and novel.

spastic_colon's picture

hey mr. chairwoman.....was your non-appearance today planned way ahead of time?  Or did the weather muss your bowl cut?

fonestar's picture

Gold was money for 5,000 years until Bitcoin came along.

hobopants's picture

I think your biggest mistake with that stuff is assuming that people will understand it as well as you do. The psychological forces that will be at work after people are burned by intangible digital assets are going to keep them away from it, no matter how irrational it may be.

hobopants's picture

Ya....paper is a misnomer, they dont even have that intrinsic value

X_mloclaM's picture

fuk dat.

nobodies expecting anyone to do the work. It's hype that's always moved sheep.

Your 'psychological forces wthat will be at work after people are burned by intangible digital assets" ... are easily unloading their 401k, SS, banks, right outtada ATM or teller, nooo prob, no HSBC, nope, you are right. People just will not trust a digital fiat currency. or a decentralized-oligopoly-prone-ledger as the fonestars like to say of BTC.. right,

The biggest mistake is you, your 'people need to understand you' shit. Fuck that . people will get theirs. everyone does what they can, and owes you nothing, your bullshit attitude that others have some obligation to explain ... to your satisfaction misses the point you attempt to make otherwise:

Psychological forces indeed move masses into MintChip, BTC, one-world-currency trial balloons, with Fed white papers opining on what it takes to move along the natural process of centralizing what starts as tantilizingly decentralized, modern, global, GUI'ed, and make it right for those (Visa/MC/Amex) who fall underline those with ample asset today (Central banks/nations) to control the timing and means of mass introduction and push. No one is opposed to iterating on dat fabian front. Today we set the framework, the legislation, we get bored, weak-on-the-work modernistas to proclaim transcation public permanence is kosha

hobopants's picture

Tell me how you really feel, don't hold back. I have no dog in this fight. I think bitcoin is a cool concept, but I also think the reaction to this mess is going to be fear, not faith in things the average Joe isn't going to understand. Scared people flock to what they know, they don't experiment, and to the uninformed bitcoin is going to look exactly like the fiat that just burned them. But shit, buy all the bitbucks you want and the best of luck to you, you incoherent nut.

Say What Again's picture

Really?

What would I rather have -- an ounce of gold, or some "virtual" amount of fiat in a "bitcoin wallet."

You make the call

fonestar's picture

Who ya gonna call? 

fonestar?

asteroids's picture

Very strange day. Just before 3PM, it looked like something bad happened and right after 4PM there appeared to be massive amounts of selling.

skwid vacuous's picture
  1. it's all good, mkt shits the bed at 4:01 pm... nothing to see here - move along
akarc's picture

My bet, I can walk down the street to the local watering hole and offer to sell a bit coin and people will go WTF is a bitcoin

automaton's picture

I said the same about the hill people of Appalachia.  They would accept payment in cans of Coke over bitcoin.  But, fonestar assured me that the people of Appalachia, amongst the poorest in this nation, would accept bitcoin.   

B.J. Worthy's picture

You're like ZH's version of the Farmville-invite guy.

disabledvet's picture

the what? "the data"?

that not only says we're going to hell in handbasket....but we've actually been there for sometime now.

i mean...bad news as good news is one thing...
but bad news as GREAT news!???

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t63_HRwdAgk
"just get used to the idea that's all wrong to begin with."

TheRideNeverEnds's picture

The market is just trying to price in the un-taper and increase in QE that we all know is coming.  Will she up QE to 100,200,500 billion a month?  higher? 

 

Nobody knows for sure but one thing is certain, keep buying because we are going sharply higher from here; from current levels we should have another 50% of upside at least in the major indexes till we start getting over extended.

 

I expect SPX 1900 by the end of this month. 

RaceToTheBottom's picture

"Will she up QE to 100,200,500 billion a month?  higher? "

QE to infinity and beyond.....

QE Argentina

ArkansasAngie's picture

I agree.  The tell is the dollar.  The bet is the US will devalue compared to the Euro.  Boy howdy defending the 102 yen must hurt some times.

Trite but true ... the race to the bottom is unfolding before our very eyes.

 

NOTaREALmerican's picture

We have a code release this week.

Maybe the trading algos were updated with some new code.

spastic_colon's picture

and yet yesterday the CCMP was UP 10 pts and all those names (amzn, aapl, goog etc) were DOWN....I'll ask again, somebody pls explain how a cap weighted index like the CCMP is actually calculated! Tyler??

Max Damage's picture

So NY FED was pumping between 13:50 and 14:15 then. They must not let the chart follow the 1929 one at any cost.

Phat Stax's picture

There is that last gap to fill before heading down or sideways.  Must.  Fill.  The.  Gap.

Honey Badger's picture

Thnaks for all of that. The dollar down has me confused.

thismarketisrigged's picture

tyler, i love the work u do, but i think now on u should start ur writeups early morning, because we all know the bullshit that will take place on a daily basis by days end.

 

fb, goog, twtr, nflx, aapl, im seriously fucking puking,

 

this shit is so fucking insane, nothing matters anymore, jobs,retail numbers, gdp, who gives a fuck, as long as fuckshit is up on a daily basis and the nasdaq always finishes up 0.80- 1 percent on a daily basis, all is good.

 

these fuckers will go on and on about how well the economy is improving, or how well earnings r doing, its fucking bullshit.

 

i know you guys prob wouldnt do this, but i feel one of the tylers should go on tv and fucking speak the truth, because no one else will. expose these fuckers for what they r. these bastards continue to get away with saying how well the economy is improving and all is good, i think its time for some peole to expose these fucks.

 

o and thank god janet yellens testimony was ppd today, now we get another day next week for this bitch to pump up markets again. god i hate that fucking cunt

fonzannoon's picture

no once believes the economy is improving. That is exactly why those momo names you mention are leading the market higher. 

Here is the question you have to ask. If they build a rigged market that only goes up. Would the masses sit there and bitch, or jump on for the ride? Once you have your answer you can be at peace with this insanity.

eclectic syncretist's picture

You can't have a double top or a head-and-shoulders top without more than one top.

TheRideNeverEnds's picture

There are zero indications of a top, nada, none, zilch.   We had a modest correction which is totally normal and have already broken out to new highs on the NQ with the rest soon to follow.  Today was just day one of the breakout.

 

The bottom is in, new highs in the ES TF and YM are a given, I don't understand why people are you not buying them here, are you waiting to buy the highs? 

 

Even if you missed the dip last week thats OK just BTFATH, some greater fool will surely come along and buy them from you later on at higher prices, until they don't, but you can't bet on them not coming for em at higher price; on a 60 month basis buying the dip has worked 100% of the time, its a no brainer.

 

What are you going to do, sell them here and hope they go down?  When are you going to throw in the towel, 1900, 2000, 2200, 2500, 3000?  You really gonna hold short e-minis as they go hundreds of points against you hoping someday maybe by the grace of god you will be able to scratch them?  

 

I mean seriously, the FED has been telling you in no uncertain terms for years now they they are going to print money to infinity and will never again let markets decline, they know they cannot let that happen ever again as it would cause the entire system to collapse in a way which there would be no coming back from.

 

You are lucky we even got 5% down, you should have been buying with both hands; that was probably the biggest correction you will see till we back off of the 2000 level before we push through it sometime around OCT 14.

playnstocks's picture

Drop the kool-aide before you OD

new game's picture

the head got chopped off and the sholders tilted so as to point to dow 20000 and qqqq 5000

LooseLee's picture

My vote for who is the 'greater fool' is you, TheRideNeverEnds

thismarketisrigged's picture

lol, i hear what you are saying, although i do not think i will ever be able to be at peace with this insanity, not possible.

philosophers bone's picture

"Would the masses sit there and bitch, or jump on for the ride".

Well, one trend that happened over the past couple of decades is that the "masses" no longer control their own finances.  The financial firms have taken the decision making away from the individual client and their broker and handed over "discretionary trading" to their firm sponsored "asset management programs".  Clients complete a piece of shit questionairre and then the "computer" kicks out an "objective" and "optimal" asset allocation based on the client's "preferences", "objectives" and "risk tolerances".

Once the money managers have full control, they can justify doing whatever the hell they want - hey, FB or TWT are better than no return on government bonds, right.  OK, then they go "all in" with the money of the "masses" and send a quarterly piece of shit "portfolio analysis" with a bunch of pie charts, accompanied by the latest spew from their "independent analyst" giving their considered advice behind the "Chinese Well" after speaking directly with the corporate executives who promise underwriting gigs for the firm is the analyst's recommedation is to their liking.

The "masses" - actually they don't have much to do with it.

fonzannoon's picture

I'm not talking about who decides what. I mean the masses give the money to the asset managers, either through retirement plan contributions, or just non qualified assets. All the stuff you mention is just a part of the masses handing over their dough. .

 

philosophers bone's picture

No argument with you.   I just don't know how to answer your question about the masses when by and large they are not only "tuned out" but worse most have handed over control, whether it be voluntary or unvoluntary.  For example, if someone's money is with a broker and they want to pull it out to buy physical gold, they end up getting talked into GLD or some ETF or mining company.  And if they want to invest in a rental property that they will own directly, the broker convinces them to buy a REIT.  Things won't change until the "masses" call their broker, money manager and banks and state "DON'T ASK ME ANY QUESTIONS, JUST GIVE ME MY FUCKING MONEY BACK.  I'M DOING SOMETHING WITH IT.  FUCK YOU".  It's hard.  Many ZHers have done it.  The "masses" - not so much......

fonzannoon's picture

yeah man no worries, I agree with that completely.

RaceToTheBottom's picture

Banks are now required to ask questions about any withdrawal over 4K.....

 

"Whores and Blow, Whores and Blow", is the only acceptable answer for a ZH'er

 

PS. Females can replace Whores with Strippers, if they feel so inclined.

RaceToTheBottom's picture

Just to clarify, big boy, I was saying what their response should be.  That still leaves other actual uses of the money, say PM purchases.  Also see boat accidents

Honey Badger's picture

You are right. We don't crash until retail is all in. Unfortunately, we have a ways to go I think.

hobopants's picture

Maybe this is the market calling janet's bluff? She will have to show her cards soon...

skwid vacuous's picture

apparently -you don't understand the new economy... 20 and 30 somethings living in mom's spare room but their click thru's are worth trillions...

fuu's picture

All that and a $101,186,000,000 TOMO.

Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

William has already made us $15,000....

You want me to break something else?

NO!!!!!!

TaperProof's picture

Everybody knows the bad economic data will keep coming and Yellen will be yelled at to turn yellow and untaper.

Obama_4_Dictator's picture

I've got to say I'm totally confused.