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... In Which We Find Joe LaVorgna Looking For "Some Impressive Weather-Related Snapback"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Word count of the word "weather" in Joe LaVorgna's latest note explaining away today's third consecutive miss in retail sales and initial claims: 8. The humor, however, is this punchline: "Eventually, though, we should see some impressive weather-related snapback in economic activity." Wait, so the weather will deposit a few thousand dollars in all tapped-out US consumers' bank accounts? You do learn something every day.

From DB's Joe LaVorgna

Weather likely weighed on retail sales and jobless claims

 

January retail sales fell -0.4% after December and November sales were revised down three-tenths and one-tenth to -0.1% and +0.3%, respectively. There was broad-based weakness in the details, with motor vehicles (-2.1%) down the most, followed by department stores (-1.5%) and sporting goods sales (-1.4%). Conceivably, inclement weather hurt these highly discretionary categories. In fact, the only five subcomponents that rose in January, and four of these categories likely reflect weather-related spending, were building materials, food & beverage, grocery stores and gasoline. Spending on electronics was up a slight +0.4%, but this follows a massive -4.4% decline in December. Retail control, which excludes food services, autos, building materials and gasoline and which is a direct input into GDP, was down -0.3% in January after rising just +0.3% in December. Adding to the softness of the report was the fact that retail control was revised down in December (+0.3% versus an initially reported +0.7%) as well as November (-0.1% versus a previously reported +0.2%). Given the unusually frigid temperatures seen across much of the country over the past two months, electricity and natural gas usage likely soared. In turn, the bump in utilities spending could help offset some of the weather-related weakness in retail spending with respect to Q1 real GDP.

 

Initial jobless claims for the week of February 8 increased +9k to 339k which had the effect of bumping up the four-week moving average +4k to 337k. In other details of the report, continuing claims fell -18k to 2953k and this caused the four-week moving average to decline -17k to 2970k. The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.3%. It is important to keep in mind that adverse weather and seasonal factors can add to the volatility in the claims data around this time of the year. Hence, we are not overly concerned with this morning’s moderate rise in the headline and would instead focus more on the four-week average. Since the four-week moving average on initial jobless claims first fell below 340k last August, nonfarm payroll growth has averaged +177k per month which is close to its underlying trend. This gives us modest confidence that the labor market remains stable despite the recent weakness in the December and January reports which were likely impacted by adverse weather. Next week’s data correspond to the survey period for February payrolls and given the impact of winter storm Pax on the eastern seaboard, we could be setting up for another weather-dampened report. Eventually, though, we should see some impressive weather-related snapback in economic activity.

 

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Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:05 | 4432662 ZombieHuntclub
ZombieHuntclub's picture

Snapback? Say it ain't so Joe!

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:20 | 4432723 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

The skittle-shitting unicorns are scheduled to deliver some "snapback" any day now.   Just wait......

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:28 | 4432777 20834A
20834A's picture

So hurricanes are 'good' weather (stocking up on supplies, gassing the car, repairing damage, etc) but blizzards are 'bad' weather (stocking up on supplies, gassing the car, repairing damage, paying gas/electric bills)?

 

 

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 15:13 | 4433289 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

think of all the consumer spending that will be generated by not having to spend money on commuting and other work expenses because you don't have a job and have no chance to find one ever again!

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:32 | 4432792 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Skittle shitters slip slide snapping sales surge,

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:52 | 4432893 texas sandman
texas sandman's picture

Snapback...usually associated with a breaking rubber band....yup, sounds about right.  Broken.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:03 | 4432663 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Endlessly entertaining watching liars and dissemblers defend the lies.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:10 | 4432681 Osmium
Osmium's picture

"Wait, so the weather will deposit a few thousand dollars in all tapped-out US consumers' bank accounts?"

See, that's the thing,  These dumbasses  don't understand just how broke Joe Sixpack really is.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:14 | 4432703 farragut
farragut's picture

The Tooth Fairy ain't got nuttin' on the Weather Fairy....

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:09 | 4432682 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Every time I hear some pundit or government shill complain about weather messing with the country's financial performance I can't help but laugh. If you guys would stop messing around with your weather modification programs we might just get this country back on its feet.

/sarc

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:23 | 4432746 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

But then they need a new excuse..

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:09 | 4432684 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

It's snowing dollars !!!!

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:10 | 4432688 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Shameless shill sells sad sentiment snafu snapback story stuffing stocks sucking socks.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:20 | 4432724 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Sleeting snow storm slices sales

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:11 | 4432691 FoodStampPrez
FoodStampPrez's picture

Let's just ignore the fact that heating bills have more than doubled for 70% of the country when compared to last winter.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 14:52 | 4433194 skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

Cue Chuck Schumer presser re: evil nat gas speculators, it's gotta be coming soon ...

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:18 | 4432725 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Joe, you live Somewhere Over The Rainbow, no doubt...

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:42 | 4432730 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Weather - wonder if the weather caused this???  Monetary base "only" added $44 B (total) for 2 months of Nov ($31 B) / Dec ($13 B) after consistently adding $100 B mo for '13.  Stawks start tanking on slowdown in hyper-monetization...Correlation???

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&s[1][id]=AMBNS&s[1][range]=1yr

Since the taper announcement of $10 B which was applied in Jan and $20 B applied in Feb isn't even visible yet in the data set...what oh what caused this halt in the monetary base and wonder what Jan and Feb will look like?  And since the change commodities (energy, metals, softs) all taking off...as if this is a head fake for Janet to show how critical moar and moar QE is to the "growth" of the US economy.  Janet gonna fix it all...make all the pain go of stopping hyper-monetization go away.  Janet gonna make it rain.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:19 | 4432734 HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

Weather-related CNBC talking head BS makes no sense. Howard Schultz said malls were dead well before "weather-related" bad sales. Why would a stock like OPEN be up if people can't get out to restaurants? Or YELP, why need reviews of restaurants and businesses if you can't get to them?? And everyone knows the 4-wheel drive TSLA sells like hotcakes when the weather is bad.

Total BS, kids.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 14:59 | 4433216 skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

No the 1% needs good info and deals on their trip to Boca, West Palm etc. hence the rally in TRIP, YELP, PCLN, EXPE, etc. Even Sheryl Sandberg was kvetching about using her FF miles a few weeks ago and she's worth a billion yellen bux, give or take

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:31 | 4432790 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Joey Baloney is such an asshole.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:32 | 4432805 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Stick Joey boy through a woodchipper feet first.  Then sell it on PPV.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 14:15 | 4433020 Kilgore Trout
Kilgore Trout's picture

If you tried head first, that curly mop would gum up the works.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:36 | 4432836 Rockfish
Rockfish's picture

weather or whether thats the qestion. 

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 13:39 | 4432841 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So we can only have 'good economy' now if the weather is pleasant? I agree with the above comments.....feed Joey and all the rest of these assclowns into a woodchipper.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 14:03 | 4432957 ronincap
ronincap's picture

Stunning that Joe still has a job - what a waste of money from Deutche bank to pay him - he is wrong 90% of the time

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 14:02 | 4432960 ronincap
ronincap's picture

and DB pays him $1,000,000  to print his BULLSHIT

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 14:25 | 4433076 in-Credible Banker
in-Credible Banker's picture

So seriously....I live in the Northeast where we've had more than our share of weather headaches.  But am hard pressed to think of a single thing I am doing differently becasue of cold or snow. Sure - maybe an occasional redbox at home versus dinner out and a movie but could that, multiplied by the many people similarly affected, drive a statstically significant difference in the reported data?

 

I think not!  

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 14:42 | 4433133 nakki
nakki's picture

What truly blows my mind I'd that FB has a market cap of 170 billion dollars!! WTF hasn't it been proven time and time again that all these "LIKES" are pure bullshit and spending $$ advertising is as good as throwing your $$ away? Oh, I get it. Its the weather, and everyone is on FB because they can't leave their house, creating huge revenue for a company that creates nothing at all.

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 14:48 | 4433176 skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

When you add up mkt caps of all these social media, advertising "driven" web stocks it is approaching 1 Trillion Yellen bux, hat tip to Francis Sawyer 

Thu, 02/13/2014 - 14:46 | 4433156 skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

Apparently everyone is booking trips to warmer spots, PCLN $1275 wtf??... reminds me of 1999/2000 

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