• Steve H. Hanke
    05/04/2016 - 08:00
    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

The Chart That Really Has The Fed Worried

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While complaining (just this morning once again) that its fiscal policy that is dragging growth, we suspect The Fed knows full well just how screwed the US is. The following chart comparing GDP growth to the elder demographic of the population offers some serious doubts that the Fed will ever be able to step away. With the Boomers retiring en masse, 65-or-overs will represent over 20% of the population within a decade and thus no economic growth. Japanization here we come... and no end to QE or the entire status quo is over.

 

GDP growth correlates strongly with the percent of population over 65 (with Greece, depression and Japan, hyper-QE the stand-outs)

 

It doesn't look good for the US...

 

You can't print more young people to change this percentage... so they'll have to keep printing money to prop up asset markets to maintain the bumpy illusion of growth.

 

Chart: @M_McDonough

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Fri, 02/14/2014 - 21:58 | 4438456 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Why wouuld the Fed would be worried about this?  The Boomers are extremely easy to control and most will eagerly support the Fed in fucking the middle class to continue their benefits and stock prices.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 21:57 | 4438458 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Middle class?  What's that?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:01 | 4438460 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

It's what the boomers traded in for their own temporary prosperity.   There's a reason they like the Golden Corral.  They are all sticking their strawberries in the chocolate fountain.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:06 | 4438474 AuEagleNest
AuEagleNest's picture

No, boomers are the first fucked. But the other generations will surely follow.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:09 | 4438475 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

The Boomers will be the last fucked.  They are the most reliable voting block for the Fed funded Teams, and they will go down swinging to keep what they have as designed by the Fed.  Medicare and SS are funded by non-boomers and the boomers don't care so long as they get what they feel they are owed from their decades of selling out the middle class in lockstep with their Fed masters.   But fucked they will be. Ha.  I said but fucked.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:20 | 4438516 AuEagleNest
AuEagleNest's picture

"Medicare and SS are funded by non-boomers"

Boomers are the rabbit in the python so no, non-boomers haven't funded medicare and ss ... boomers have funded it. There will be a day when that will be the case, considering that there are 10,000 boomers retiring daily but for now, that's bullshit.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:26 | 4438523 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

No, boomers supported endless government expansion and easy money to drive stock prices for their pensions.  I agree most boomers did not do so intentionally, but they sure as hell will vote to keep what is "theirs" even knowing now that they did not fund the programs on which they rely.  I don't begrudge them necessarily, but a fact is a fact.  For once I would like to have a debate about reality instead of ideology.  The boomers looked the other way while the middle class was gutted in the name of free trade and fake expansion because it raised stock prices and kept the SS ponzi afloat.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:29 | 4438534 AuEagleNest
AuEagleNest's picture

Everyone "votes" in their own self interest. I use votes in quotes because I don't think votes really matter. The fact is that most people are duped by TPTB, boomers and non-boomers alike. Them that has the gold makes the rule, I don't give a fuck which political party is in power.

Are boomers trying to ensure that they can retire and not have to eat cat food to survive. No doubt about it. No different from any other generation.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:30 | 4438540 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Allowing someone else to eat cat food to preserve your piece of the pie, most of which you gave away in favor of easy money, is not much of a legacy.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:36 | 4438569 knukles
knukles's picture

When you got 'em by the cat food supply, their hearts and minds will inevitably follow
    - Chuckie "Cheese" Colon

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:55 | 4438620 FMR Bankster
FMR Bankster's picture

Intersting discussion. I think my family might be similar to most. My great grandfather (great guy) died when I was seven. Thought social security was a strange goverment plot. (He didn't think much of income taxes either)Refused to file for social security even though he was forced to pay the taxes. His daughter (my grandmother) not only filed for them but since she only worked 20 years made a killing off the deal. Paid into medicare for only 3 years and collected a fortune in benefits before she died at 88. Very typical of those who retired in the late 1960's. My parents have done alright. Paid in a bunch but they are both in their early 80's and it won't be far from a break even deal for them. If they pay me the promised benefits I'll do OK but of course that's impossible. (The numbers make no sense at all)Maybe I'll only be modestly screwed. My son and daughter in law. Ugly deal. No need to wait to be screwed on social security and medicare, Obama decided to start the hosing early with Obamacare. Obamacare has made more Libertarians amoung the under 35 group than Ron Paul ever did.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 23:34 | 4438708 cifo
cifo's picture

How many of us will be alive in 2050 to care?

Sat, 02/15/2014 - 01:24 | 4438886 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

How many of you BITCHING SISSIES that promote stealing from the boomers:

Whine about being robbed by those evil Wall St/banker/FED badguys?

Blame the boomers for all the debt created since we were alive, yet take no blame for the debt created during your watch (think DOUBLING in just the last 5 years)?

 

You sound as infantile as.....as.....I DID, in the 70's, blaming our parents for the F'd up world they left us, we'll blow ourselves up in a few years anyway, we'd never bring kids into this world, don't trust anyone over 30.......Whaaaaaaa !

Keep thinking about it.

You'll grow up soon, hopefully.

Sat, 02/15/2014 - 01:56 | 4438911 RumCurrency
RumCurrency's picture

It really is a flaw of democracy.  The boomers are the case in point of why democracies end in ruin.  The boomers were and still are a huge voting block and they have influenced politics like no other generation before or after. From the optimistic side, I suspect we will have to wait for this generation to die out before the country can return to any kind of fiscal responsibility.  From the pessimistic side, the country might be irreperably damaged, and will soon join the long list of failed states. 

Sat, 02/15/2014 - 07:07 | 4439031 Confused
Confused's picture

Most of these arguments are nonsense. Really. 

 

Blame the boomers for all the debt created since we were alive, yet take no blame for the debt created during your watch (think DOUBLING in just the last 5 years)?

This sounds as though the 'Boomers' are NOT part of the CURRENT problem (ie - debt doubling). Who/what is the status quo that this debt is created to protect? Surely not the young people. (This is the part where you blame the young for voting for Obama, though they could not have gotten him elected alone).

 

Keep thinking about it. You'll realize that its a structural problem. Failure by design.

Sat, 02/15/2014 - 08:08 | 4439063 new game
new game's picture

trust me, you are NOT confused...

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 23:43 | 4438723 infinity8
infinity8's picture

Your family strongly resembles my family in time line/demographic breakdown (i'm 48, soon to be 49). We'll probably be mostly screwed. I have a close relative (44) that got diagnosed w/bone cancer @the end of last year. She is a fucking champ. Attitude-wise. I don't know if i could be that person. If she lives, they're going to the poor house. She was a pilot and then RN, he runs a small and at least modestly successful small business (@20 yrs). They have both worked their balls off their whole lives and have basically shit coverage that they have paid through the nose for and now it's worse. Busted and disgusted.

Sat, 02/15/2014 - 02:15 | 4438934 Ward no. 6
Ward no. 6's picture

if she lives she does not have to go to the "poor house"

how about family helping her???

she can stay with some family member...

Sat, 02/15/2014 - 02:15 | 4438935 Ward no. 6
Ward no. 6's picture

if she lives she does not have to go to the "poor house"

how about family helping her???

she can stay with some family member...

Sat, 02/15/2014 - 13:08 | 4439563 failure to perform
failure to perform's picture

Boomers will have, and be the cancer. They will have little to nothing to leave in their estates due to medical bills. Houses will be sold to cover their medical costs. They think they are safe. I'm watching them crumble. I've been at the hospital calling in risk management 4 times in the last 4 months. They are being creative maximizing the profitability, while trying to kill off those on the "special" insurance.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 23:17 | 4438658 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

I really think it has more to do with who's counting those votes.

Geeesh, as if there was a choice. Two sides of the same coin.

Sat, 02/15/2014 - 02:21 | 4438936 Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

You don't have to vote to be part of the economy. Boomers can vote themselves whatever they like, but if their kids are living in the basement and have no jobs, who exactly are the politicians going to tax?

So it will go like this:

-Boomers will start off fucking the kids (already started)

-the kids will get tired of being treated like slaves and will opt out

-government will HAVE to cut benefits because there won't be enough money.

 

This assumes that the government can't just print more money to cover the gap (which wouldn't be sustainable for very long anyway).

This is why SS isn't covered as a normal liability in the budget...why we have a $17T debt instead of a $100T debt. Because it is not a guarantee, but a "promise." It was set up so that politicians could weasle out whenever they wanted. The fact that most people don't realize it's a lie is their problem.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:22 | 4438521 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

USSA Government = Ultimate Cock Blocker

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 23:22 | 4438679 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

This entire premise is bullshit and misleading... it isn't a demographic problem, it is an EMPLOYMENT problem.

200,000,000 more 20-somethings does not solve the problem... it only ads 200,000,000 more unemployed people.

Unlimited growth on a finite planet is a flawed objective but the only one that supports an economic model based on frational reserve banking.  There are other models... and this lesson has been learned (and then forgotten) by our human bretheren for centuries upon centuries.  Some species never grow up.

Sat, 02/15/2014 - 01:24 | 4438888 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

It's a perception problem.

No one ever talks about "running out of money" for Welfare.

Sat, 02/15/2014 - 03:37 | 4438983 OH10DESERTER
OH10DESERTER's picture

fractional reserve lending is the only way to explain 18 trillion in debt during the technological revolution.

Sat, 02/15/2014 - 16:23 | 4440127 Muppet
Muppet's picture

"This entire premise is bullshit and misleading".... correct.    This is a non-issue.   Is "population" predicting birth rate growth?   Is immigration included?   The US is ideally positioned.   Unlike Japan which has no neighbors who can be tapped for immigration, the US is ideally positioned to easily control its demographics as their are many who would come if allowed.   This is a non-issue.

Sat, 02/15/2014 - 20:16 | 4440739 Voltaire
Voltaire's picture

dude, when you import mexico, you become mexico. So I'm not sure immigration will help you. 

Sat, 02/15/2014 - 16:24 | 4440128 Muppet
Muppet's picture

.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:06 | 4438480 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

There are plenty of boomers who are fucked. None of this is can be talked about in absolutes. All the boomers by me are living a Cialis commercial, but I am sure they are fucked somewhere.

 

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:08 | 4438487 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

I agree, but as a group they are the strongest supporters of the status quo because they believe they have a vested interest.  They will be the last to figure out that they have been had.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:15 | 4438499 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Oh man there is no doubt about it. The best part is in a few years when we get a tough talking republican who promises to clean house on entitlements....for those under a certain age of course....because we have to keep our promises......

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:15 | 4438510 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Exactly.  And the boomers will vote in huge numbers for said savior while the smart phone obsessed masses spend their minimum wage on video games and apps to determine how long they can defer their student loans.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:27 | 4438535 max2205
max2205's picture

Hence the imagination pusk...duh

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:23 | 4438529 AuEagleNest
AuEagleNest's picture

Surely this post is "off the cuff" and doesn't reflect the usual perception that I've seen in your previous posts. I can't imagine that you think any political party is going to do anything positive. Unless you're using "best" ironically or you forgot your /sarc.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:29 | 4438531 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Status quo = the two party system.  My beef is that the boomers will continue to support the same while the Fed and its owners gut what's left of the wealth of this country.  They do not realize that it was stolen from them along with the rest of us, and they will be the last to figure it out.  They will also be the group that helps keep the status quo going long after it should be dismantled.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:29 | 4438538 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

My favorite is going to be when they finally "allow" a 3rd party into the mix and some "independent" candidate stands up and gets some big sound bytes and is voted in in a landslide victory by the masses, desperate to say they truly pushed for change, and not realizing they fell for it again.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:31 | 4438548 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Sad that you're probably right.  

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 23:24 | 4438685 infinity8
infinity8's picture

Well, thanks for saying it out loud. And deepening my depression. That's my personal version of the future at this point.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 23:28 | 4438693 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

LTER: Plenty of people were for Nader & hopefully you saw what B & G did to him. Legit candidate on the ticket, he was threatened with arrest and the admission ticket he possessed for access to the debates was ignored. 

So please tell me how the "Boomers" keep the status quo going.

Sat, 02/15/2014 - 07:14 | 4439037 blindman
blindman's picture

"abilify and my anti-depressant make a good team."
i heard that on the t.v.. ask your doctor about it.
.
among the difference between japan and amerika one must
also look at immigration and emigration policy past, present
and future.
.
there was another funny line from that t.v. commercial
but i can't remember it right now.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 23:47 | 4438704 mccvilb
mccvilb's picture

Reductio ad absurdum, son. These last two Hope and Change Prez terms are on you and your millenials, and to the tune of what, ten trillion? We paid cash for our retirement. Who allowed whom to do what again?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 21:59 | 4438463 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

It's OK.  This boomer (and his wife) are not eligible for Social Security nor MediCare (nor Obamacare, LOL...), so no worries!

We did not "pay into the system" however, so even fewer worries!

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:03 | 4438473 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

You are one of the exceptions, my friend.  Kudos.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:15 | 4438509 Boondocker
Boondocker's picture

half the boomers I know are either having to keep working or have gone back to work....the others all seem to vote for the blue team and arr loud about!

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:01 | 4438464 wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

With enough viagra and unh unh unh uganda chicks, we can turn the whole world brown.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 23:36 | 4438709 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Well, from the chart above it sure looks like Africa is the place to be. Plenty of labor and high GDP growth. I could probably hire one cheap to change my bedpan when I get older.

Sat, 02/15/2014 - 03:09 | 4438969 verum quod lies
verum quod lies's picture

Yes, the implication of the PC fool who wrote this piece is that we need to become one big "knockout game". Sure, we need to become more like Uganda or Rwanda who have the "better demographics" then all will be well. Sarc. off. The key is and always was per capita real growth which is not generated by importing the third to genocide the people who created the wealth they crave.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:15 | 4438503 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Baby Boomers have become a bunch of Gooks....How ironic. 

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:22 | 4438527 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

The Fed worry? They can make the sheep buy anything of their choosing be it tulip bulbs, stawks, tract homes, or turd balls.

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