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Industrial Production Plunges, Fed Blames Weather

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Despite Utilities soaring 4.1%, the Federal Reserve "blames" the worst miss (and biggest drop) in Industrial Production since August 2012 on "severe weather" in some regions of the country. Capacity Utilization also tumbled - to its lowest since October. Numbers for November and December's exuberance were revised lower in both series (that must be the weather effect being anticipated that weather would be bad in January!?!). There were 6 mentions of the word 'weather' in the report (just missing out of Deutsche's Lavorgna with 8 yeaterday) as any weakness in macro data is due to unforeseeable events (weather in Winter) but any surprising beat is due to solid fundamentals underlying the real economy.

 

Of course the plunge in Industrial Production would have nothing to do with the near-record levels of inventories in channel-stuffed over-laden mal-invested auto makers?...

 

 

 

From The Fed,

Industrial production decreased 0.3 percent in January after having risen 0.3 percent in December. In January, manufacturing output fell 0.8 percent, partly because of the severe weather that curtailed production in some regions of the country

 

...

 

The severe weather in January contributed to a decrease of 0.8 percent for manufacturing production. Output had risen in each of the previous five months, though the rates of increase for October through December are now reported to be slower than previously stated: Steel, semiconductors, motor vehicles, and organic chemicals made the largest contributions to the downward revision for the fourth quarter. The level of factory output in January was 1.3 percent above its year-earlier level.

 

Capacity utilization for manufacturing moved down 0.7 percentage point in January to 76.0 percent, a rate 2.7 percentage points below its long-run average.

 


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Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:31 | Link to Comment Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

What happened to Bushes fault. He's letting a good crisis go to waste here. 

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:35 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

No worries, this is a jobless and productionless recovery.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:43 | Link to Comment _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

Middle class destroyed and together with the poor no longer counted. Problem solved.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:53 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

THEY must want that number otherwise it would be a different number

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:16 | Link to Comment SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Get ready for an unseasonably hot summer. So hot that people won't be able to leave their homes to spend money.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:51 | Link to Comment stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Hold off buying any big (or medium) ticket items. Deflation coming to a store near you.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:34 | Link to Comment Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

WTF!  I'd like to see some charts going back to the 1950's showing industrial production dropping due to winter weather!!

What a bunch of fucking weenies the US has become!

No wonder China thinks they'll kick our ass

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Superdude
Superdude's picture

Physical hand to hand combat is over. China will kick our asses, though it will be by controlling out technology. The ZH lust for killing the masses that are after their gold and canned goods probably won't come to pass in our lifetime, it's a long process. 

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:42 | Link to Comment Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

You guys are funny.

 

China is already the biggest economy in the world. This fact is just hidden by the Yuan peg.

 

If the Yuan was allowed to float to it's true value China would have a bigger economy than USA. Easily.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Superdude
Superdude's picture

Of course it has the biggest economy, though your point would lose some predictive value because if the currency appreciated, there's no way they could afford comparable wages to USA. They have 150 people digging a ditch with picks and shovels, we use two people and a back hoe. I don't think China could support pay workers four dollars more per day, a lot of the shit they produce is sold on volume and the fact that you have to replace it every three weeks because the build quality is so poor. I failed to mention the corruption which is a whole different variable to consider. China, at best, would have a moderate rise and then complete collapse. The deal they made is to be the new slave society, that's all they can be. 

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:56 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

They have 150 people digging a ditch with picks and shovels. The shit they produce is sold on volume and the fact that you have to replace it every three weeks because the build quality is so poor.

I thought the Chinese made iPhones.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:04 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Some of their bearings are just fine too.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:11 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I just put Chinese axles on my wife's Subaru. My fingers are crossed.

Chinese axles = $70/per

Japanese (American?) axles = $400/per

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:19 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Soooooo.... when you say your fingers are crossed because you put a cheap axle on your wife car, what are you hoping the outcome is? Hmmmmmmm?    ;->

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:48 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

That the life insurance pays out...

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:55 | Link to Comment General Decline
General Decline's picture

Just "upgrade" to the Chinese brake pads next and you'll be a bachelor in no time.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:50 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I have time to swap axles on cars because I don't have a real job. My wife is my Catholic school teacher gravy train.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:21 | Link to Comment superflex
superflex's picture

Your job today is axle swapper.

Tomorrow, it's kitchen cleaner.

Sunday will be laundry expert.

No shame in any of those jobs.  Just because there's no income in them, doesn't mean those are meaningless jobs.

Keep fighting the good fight Rex

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:36 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Thanks.

I really do appreciate it.

+1 karma for you.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:27 | Link to Comment Superdude
Superdude's picture

It might be different now, but back when they were building ghost towns and Olympic structures, they used manual labor for a lot of jobs that could have used more machinery. I remember seeing how they put pipe in the ground, people swinging picks and shoveling. Though it could be a dated reference

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:58 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

"I failed to mention the corruption which is a whole different variable to consider"

 

Have you been paying attention to what has been going on in the U.S.?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:05 | Link to Comment Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Yes but our corruption is more subtle, usually, when the IRS is not involved or the Pres.....WTF it's the same not way to sugar coat it. 

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:14 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Yeah.... the threat of martial law and tanks in the street is subtle.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:21 | Link to Comment Superdude
Superdude's picture

Good point, though I think the scale of Chinese government corruption is a bit higher, politicians are cheap whores in the states. They'll sell out for $50 000 or less

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:50 | Link to Comment irie1029
irie1029's picture

Agree, all one has to do is go there and look around.  I bet the barter economy in China exceeds ours.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:54 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, and no one else could afford to buy their plastic crap. - "winning"

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:35 | Link to Comment VD
VD's picture

the economy = /s

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:51 | Link to Comment Max Damage
Max Damage's picture

Janets vibrator is giving that buy button a good whacking to keep this market up

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:20 | Link to Comment Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

What happened to, "unexpectedly"? The good old days when you could count on fedgov "unexpectedly". Oh well, now that North America has discovered Global Warming ..snow...and....cold.....in winter, why no telling what numbers we get. If the Communists Party of China was running fedgovstat, I can assure you things would be rosy. Obviously fedgovstat has been infiltrated with anti-Obama/Satoro wreckers, and must be purged! IRS audits for all and a NSA/ATF medadata search of social media and any purchases of ammunition, weapons, any online comments justifying a little 6 AM flash bang labradoodle killing raid. Yes "folks" the enemies of President Obama, his partners in corporate America and even of the GOP, LLc, are many. These maggots, feasting on the green shoots of progress must be shovled up and crushed between the iron fists of choom righteousness! Forward!

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:32 | Link to Comment B2u
B2u's picture

I remeber when I was a kid when school was closed due to the cold temperatures.

 

Yep...I NEVER happened...

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:55 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

You didn't live in Atlanta........with HITLER!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoujWceQyw8

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:32 | Link to Comment DOT
DOT's picture

Bullish it.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Bryan
Bryan's picture

That's perfect, my new go-to phrase for the lies that promote bullish exuberance.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:00 | Link to Comment DOT
DOT's picture

Go for it ! Plenty of opportunities.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Max Damage
Max Damage's picture

Did they miss the inventory build when blaming the fuckin weather!!!!! Twats

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:36 | Link to Comment Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

Weather?? Better call that fat fucking pig Al Gore for a solution - and do it fast.

 

That fucking cunt Yellen can't fix it with printing - the cunt can make the markets fly higher and that's about it.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:48 | Link to Comment corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

I hear william peter blatty is writing another Exorcist sequel and wants some dialogue for the possessed child.  Care to offer any lines?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:24 | Link to Comment noguano
noguano's picture

I hope Friedkin directs.  I want to see another spider walk.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:39 | Link to Comment Bryan
Bryan's picture

Does the public not see the blatant manipulation of 'reality' right in their faces?  Sheesh, it's comical, yet sad.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:43 | Link to Comment GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Figures lie and liars figure.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:42 | Link to Comment olle
olle's picture

This is the best video about today´s weather situation... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-26160761

Sitting here in Sweden in the middle of our "normal" winter, +4C and not a snowflake in sight....

 

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:53 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

If it's going to be cold, personally, I'd actually prefer that it snows.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:54 | Link to Comment SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

global warming mein arse....

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:23 | Link to Comment superflex
superflex's picture

Now you've done it.  

Flakmeister is going to have some terse words for you right after he gets done clearing his driveway with a hopium-powered snowblower.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:43 | Link to Comment mijev
mijev's picture

Not wishing to be left out of this weather focused craze, I've started naming my own farts.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:47 | Link to Comment irie1029
irie1029's picture

Yeah isn't that naming storms the stupidest thing.  Well not it isn't but it is stupid.  And when 2 named storms join then what the heck you call it Chang and Eng?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:52 | Link to Comment mijev
mijev's picture

And then some dumb ass pseudo scientist comes out and says there were more named storms last year... Er, yeah, because you named more of them. I thnk I may be at breaking point. :)

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:53 | Link to Comment Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Smellvin?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:12 | Link to Comment akarc
akarc's picture

whoopsie, 

squishy

whodunit

congress

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:03 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

Gas-ton

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:44 | Link to Comment irie1029
irie1029's picture

Since JAnuary we closed 3 times due to "weather" BUT had demand for product been high we would have worked OT to make it up hence production would not have dropped. Why can't the fools admit the economy SUCKS?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:44 | Link to Comment BadDog
BadDog's picture

Cold weather makes gold and silver go up!  Let's hope for an ice age.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:54 | Link to Comment automaton
automaton's picture

Don't worry.  It's coming.  We are nearly 2000 years overdue for an ice age.  The glaciers should obliterate crap holes like Chicago and many in commie Europe.  Good bye holocene.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:51 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

Does anyone believe what these idiots say anymore. Anyone?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:53 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

This recovery is a lazy hippy bums dream come true.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:51 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Food stamps for everyone!   My god how did we ever make anything before global warming (you know, when we had real winters)?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:53 | Link to Comment Bosch
Bosch's picture

DOW down a whopping 919.  

Wait, my bad, missed a decimal point, -9.19

 

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:56 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Well keep buying because this summers going to be really hot and we'll probably have a lot of tornados this spring which is a major GDP producer. LMAO.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 10:57 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Krugman, get back to class!

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:01 | Link to Comment NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

The bull market is over. ZH threw in the towel last night with a Goldilocks article. I've been saying since QE infinity started that it was my sell. I love this site, the social and financial commentary is the best anywhere, but if you trade it your reading this in you're Mom's basement

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:12 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Do you realize how ridiculous you sound? Zero Hedge has not made any market calls one way or another, and just because a contributor posts an article it doesn't mean the Tyler's endorse it. Zero Hedge does provide the information and point out the discrepancies between markets reaction and the fundamentals. They also point out the propaganda being fed to us. Most everybody here knows that the "market" has become a policy tool, and it has become very easy to make 'money'. The few trade recommendations they have made would have paid off handsomely if one had the fortitude and the know how to execute the trade.  My guess is that you don't.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:06 | Link to Comment cassotto
cassotto's picture

what's the purpose of this post? do fundamentals matter?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:13 | Link to Comment MickV
MickV's picture

Wicked Winter weather is due to "Global Warming". Hot summers are due to "Global Warming". Tails I win heads you lose.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:26 | Link to Comment kralizec
kralizec's picture

Beat up a statist, blame it on the weather...booyah!

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:30 | Link to Comment PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

couldn't be more bullish, the perfect red carpet for Janet, indices heading for the ATH

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:46 | Link to Comment foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

20-30 years of shipping jobs over seas, increasing regulation and taxes that suffocate business and now we wonder why the American consumer is flat ass broke... Yeah, it's the weather's fault.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:02 | Link to Comment ifishivote
ifishivote's picture

is energy part of industrial production? My heating bills are off the charts and so are yours.

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