NASDAQ Rips To Fresh 14-Year Highs But Precious Metals Outperform

Tyler Durden's picture


Silver gained a stunning 7% this week - its biggest week in 6-months - and gold up over 4% as precious metals handily outperformed US equities (despite the latter being bathed in the glory of a media-gloating low-volume melt-up). Nasdaq is now up 1.7% on the year and broke to new highs not seen since Dec 2000. There was a clear effort to get the more critical S&P 500 to unch in 2014 but it failed - despite slamming VIX to 13.5% (and STVIX to record lows). High-beta Nasdaq and Russell outperformed on the week and Trannies lagged. The USD drifted lower from Wednesday with GBP (+2%, best week in 8mo.) and EUR strength the biggest drivers but notably equities disconnected from JPY carry after 1030ET. Treasury yields slid higher today and ended the week 2bp (30Y) to 6bps (5Y and 10Y) on the week. Healthcare and Utilities are the massive outperfomers in stocks in 2014 - that must be good right?


Silver (and Gold) ripped higher on the week...


Silver now tops gold in 2014...


But the headlines will be made by the screamfest higher in US equities (even though they underperformed PMs)...


This chart perhaps sums up the market conviction - the lower pane is volume above/below average  - not exactly 'piling back in' are they...


Healthcare and Utilities have led 2014... not exactly confidence-inspiring...


JPY carry has lost its mojo...


and so have bonds as it seems gold and stocks are best friends...


And VIX decoupled this afternoon...


And bonds weakened on the day - end up 2-6bps on the week...



The USD has slid 0.8% in thelast 2 days as EUR weakness gave way and strengthened along with GBP after Carney's comments... this is the best week for GBP isn 8 months and highest since Nov 09



Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Emerging Markets are unfixed...


Bonus Bonus Chart: S&P 500 Futures trend reversion...

Your rating: None

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Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:10 | 4437616 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

One of the statistics I follow is the Average Trade Size (ATS) for a number of stocks & futures.  I track ATS on a 1 minute basis for ES, the Mini-S&P-500 futures.  Today at 14:26 the indicator hit a record of 22.  This number is the highest value on my chart, which has the last 200 days (at a 1 minute interval).  This value of 22 is higher than every open & close, where you normally see higher readings.  On a 30 second basis, you can actually see two spikes; one at 14:26 and the other at 11:50.  These spike occurred just prior to the intra-day top in ES.

Either some one is BTFATH, OR... they used this rally to lighten up their position.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:25 | 4437677 flacon
flacon's picture

This "market" is going to burn!!!


Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:53 | 4437759 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture




Now those who bought in 2000 are down only 15% over the last 14 years...


Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:57 | 4437767 Freddie
Freddie's picture

I love shiny glittery rehypothicated paper gold. (sarc)

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:26 | 4437689 Frank -THE COIN -
Frank -THE COIN -'s picture

Excellent. Also did anythig happen at 9:50 ? Because as @Flacon pointed out , the SPY went Algo crazy up and down. And the last time when this happened on a bigger scale, it portended a Coming Crash.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 18:04 | 4437793 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Well, I'm sure a few more bankers will be suicided by this weekend and into next week. Those will be known as the "Anti-Bonus" employees.

You know, kind of like a "Claw-back" clause.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 18:02 | 4437799 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Oh no. What does this mean?  I just sold all my muni bonds and bought Tesla, Priceline and Tweeter.  My broker said they are much safer.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 18:48 | 4437919 hobopants
hobopants's picture

If a fake market falls and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound? Maybe this thing is dead on it's feet with only the machines and the poor passive saps in 401k and pensions left? Like someone yanking on the puppet strings and saying "See! See! everything is ok!" The whole volume thing makes it seem that way anyway.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:22 | 4437618 fijisailor
fijisailor's picture

The PBOC consciously does not want to disturb the gold markets when they buy but are under serious internal pressure to buy all they can.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:14 | 4437621 Wait What
Wait What's picture

surprise, surprise, who coulda knowd?

this guy, 12 hours ago: Fri, 02/14/2014 - 04:32 | 4435760

"thank you for your cooperation"

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:11 | 4437622 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, yes, keep printing motherfuckers, keep printing.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:09 | 4437624 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

I posted this on the VIX thread at 3:06 PM: "We just saw the top. They might be able to hold it into the close, but look out below. They got everyone into this sucker the could"

I got it within a minute. Almost perfect double tops on Nas and S$P. negative divergences everywhere. Massive head and shoulders formed on Dow after 61% retracement. Bat pattern on the S&P. should get really ugly next week

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:16 | 4437650 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

See you next week when we print 1900 in the ES

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:19 | 4437664 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

I've been riding it all the way up. But now the ride truly has ended, at least through the summer

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:23 | 4437680 Nid
Nid's picture


Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:22 | 4437661 Wait What
Wait What's picture

find me a catalyst for this mythical "should get really ugly next week" and I'll say 'meh' nothing that can't be papered over with some liquidity. only a fool would short this market, smart traders wait for the 5% pull back, get long to the peak (8 pts from ATH SPX?), then liquidiate. rinse and repeat. has been working for literally 2 years now.

as the stats show, all you have to do is be in the market for the biggest rallies and you capture the vast majority of long term returns.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:32 | 4437709 Nid
Nid's picture

Oh, is that all?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 23:40 | 4438718 Wait What
Wait What's picture

we can discuss the merits of different trading strategies during non-QE intervals at length when QE ends... which is to say, we'll probably never discuss the merits of different trading strategies outside of some form  of QE. within its given context, why would you question a method if it works without caveat?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:36 | 4437710 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

The decline starts before the catalyst, just as it did in 2000 and 2008. You won't hear about the catalyst until its already down 5-10%. How about one of these - an EM blowing up and setting off a derivatives domino game, the US falling into a recession that the Fed reacts too late to, The Nikkei plunging as it becomes more apparent that Abenomics has failed, etc...

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 18:20 | 4437841 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Trust me, you are preaching to the choir. Most here are exhausted from years of signals of emminent doom, but alas, it hasn't happened and as long as every aspect of the markets are manipulated, a crash isn't going to happen... 

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 22:07 | 4438484 Wait What
Wait What's picture

"You won't hear about the catalyst..." You mean YOU and JoeSixpack won't hear about the catalyst. Asymmetric information can be painful when you're not plugged into the global information network 24/7. i'd like to think that if a butterfly in Brazil flapped its wings out of synch with its brethren, it wouldn't be long before i found out.

Sat, 02/15/2014 - 15:19 | 4438802 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

You don't have to short with margin when you've got HVU or UVXY.
You need very little $ and given what's coming you'd be a fool NOT to profit from the down-move coming.

HVU = (217 / SPY ) 11
so when SPY = 80, HVU = 58,488.06

unless you like margin calls, then by all means, go short on margin, get a margin call before realizing the best sell-price & lose all your money, play right into the hands of the banksters who SEE your margin account & know what you can't afford to lose. That's how they get you & NANEX helps show that every day. Suckerz.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:19 | 4437665 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Ooh, goody! Technical analysis. My, has that worked so well since March 2009.

Tell me - what technical analysis pointed to a nearly 1200-point run for the S&P back in March 2009? I'd like to see THAT chart. As a bonus, of course.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:28 | 4437697 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

Well, I trade the Nasdaq, which has now put in an almost perfect 78% retracement of the plunge from top in 2001 to the low in 2009. That's what you would expect. Thanks for bringing it up as I forgot to mention the longer term stuff.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:35 | 4437716 Nid
Nid's picture

I'm no pure technician, but the highest flying (momo)names have pretty much followed the most basic TA tenets fo the past couple years....give or take a few miraculous stick saves here and there....Like TA for Dummies.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 18:15 | 4437831 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Our NDX friend is talking Fibs as in Fibonacci aka Leonardo of Pisa born in 1175 AD.

As far as many of these momo stocks - you donate to the regime - your stock is supported aka pumped.  Facebook is a total farce as is Twitter.

Sat, 02/15/2014 - 00:18 | 4438785 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

I propose a merger:
ticker FWIT
Company: FWitter
purpose: combine all fuckwittery from every format of sharing, micro-videos, duckface pornstar girls & epicFails across all time & space to one giant fuckwitwall

Sat, 02/15/2014 - 00:13 | 4438776 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

nothing technical about it. No back-testing, no equations, nothing but opinion.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:10 | 4437626 waterwitch
waterwitch's picture

FWIW Lakeshore Gold up 9% today (T.LSG). GLTAL

Sat, 02/15/2014 - 00:03 | 4438758 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

FWIW USLV up 13.60% today.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:13 | 4437641 fuu
fuu's picture

Only $87,715,000,000 in TOMO today.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:13 | 4437642 socalbeach
socalbeach's picture

Price deflation.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:21 | 4437666 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

dollar deflation (of purchasing power that is)- fixed. 

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:21 | 4437662 EtTuEtTu
EtTuEtTu's picture

NASDAQ is on fire, perhaps fueled (or lack there of), in some extent by Tesla:

[TSX followed suit but I'm guessing based on more reasonable valuations] 

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:21 | 4437670 Ulterior
Ulterior's picture

time to start building paper position for 1500, will buy any dip now

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:25 | 4437683 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"as recovery roars ahead and inflation picks up steam. land prices continue to soar as gas lines lengthen. the vox populii are glad the war effort has finally wound down as everyone agrees now is the time to get back to work on what makes things work...namely the economy.

while yields on cash deposits have been quite high for some time now it is rumored that the Fed will finally start making a move to put an end to scourge of inflation once and for all."

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:31 | 4437699 Wait What
Wait What's picture


Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:43 | 4437729 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Right, if that is the case, go ahead, raise interest rates motherfucker.  Go ahead, I double dog dare you.

Sat, 02/15/2014 - 03:09 | 4438963 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Now that the equity indexes have essentially tripled, with many of the shittiest companies traded being 10, 20 or 30 baggers, on the wave of QEflafion during the last 4 years, amidst an undeniably structurally weakened economy, I'm going to go leveraged long for reasons of pure FOMO.

I'm definitely doing a bull-call spread maximum leverage on Herbalife, just because Icahn finally convinced me that it is a rock solid, inherently awesome company.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:42 | 4437727 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture


Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:50 | 4437752 Ulterior
Ulterior's picture

10000 BC?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:48 | 4437748 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Screw it. I ordered a bunch of Ag Pandas.

Ag is still on sale.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 18:32 | 4437875 Freddie
Freddie's picture

How is delivery?  I heard from a guy I know that bullion and gold have pretty slow delivery.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:58 | 4437781 starman
starman's picture

"When the levy breaks"

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 18:19 | 4437845's picture

Are they trying to wind down the JPY carry trade but keep markets afloat by letting PM (and associated miners) rise, taking profits there and performing unscheduled POMO with the earnings?  

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 18:27 | 4437852 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

I wonder how many times the likes of guys like Eric King over at KWN have creamed themselves today......

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 18:41 | 4437902 hootowl
hootowl's picture

Perhaps a little off subject, but I am vexed by the options behavior today.  Has anyone ever seen the Dow up over 90 points, while the Nasdaq was down 10 points?  What kind of a swindle was being perpetrated.....and by whom?

Was this the first move by the new chairsatanette?

Sat, 02/15/2014 - 02:46 | 4438954 Father Lucifer
Father Lucifer's picture

Nasdaq, s&P and Russel are all at resistance, the Dow is playing catch-up.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 20:07 | 4438162 LuchadorChumba
LuchadorChumba's picture

Aye aye aye, paper price effects phys in the ways mis amigos in the TBTF demand. Phys AU can be sustained below the price of production, and longer than real bad hangover by buying the phys producers outright via Fed shell companies, or by obvious 'gov acquisition'. When enough stragglers decide to board the 'AU UP Train', expect Italy, or one of the PIGS to have their currency spanked. Mira! We'll watch the derelicts flow their capital right back into the US dollar... and watch the price of paper gold, which hasn't disconnected as yet, lick the floor below production cost. Uno mas lashing for the bulls before the run up - which could be years.


Viva El Luchador

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 23:59 | 4438748 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

markets manipulate
fair price evades detection
silver price moves
behold, an erection!

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