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The Sell-Side Starts Its Mass GDP Downgrades

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Despite the promise that it's different this time, that this time the growth rebound is "sustainable", that we we have finally reached "escape velocity", the dismal truth - as we noted last night courtesy of Mr Santelli - is that it is anything but different this time. On the back of disappointing retail sales (among others) and likely further weakened by this morning's drop and downward revisions in Industrial Production, the herd of sheep-like sell-side strategists have taken the knife to their hope-filled GDP growth expectations. Of course, this is all weather-related and the hockey-stick will revert to a new normal self-sustaining recovery any day now.

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:32 | 4436429 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

...and next week we probably start seeing that WTI rise at the gas pumps.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:40 | 4436463 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

Inquiring minds want to know what the new Debt Limit is. Does the debt to GDP ratio matter just in Greece?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:54 | 4436496 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Tooting my own horn here, but the last free advice I gave out on ZH (DYODD) has worked well in the short term, AGQ and SLW up quite a lot recently.  SLW was just SCREAMING buy at $20, a couple months back.  AGQ up big on no news, but it was severely undervalued recently.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:41 | 4436644 Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

I'm guessing you (coincidentally) hold a lot of SLW.

"Herd Redirection Committee," indeed. Ppffttthhh.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:05 | 4437607 Wait What
Wait What's picture

WTI already hitting the pocketbooks in california. premium hit 4.00 this morning, up from 3.69 2 weeks ago.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:34 | 4436430 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

If we don't need jobs anymore as they are infringing on our "freedoms", how long can profits be a good thing? Big corps are just following Big O's lead. No one said it would be painless to be saved, we just have to learn to to complain, for our own good of course.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:33 | 4436434 Arrowflinger
Arrowflinger's picture

GDP - Government Depressed Product

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:36 | 4436439 Max Damage
Max Damage's picture

Get the downgrades in now, and then when they beat by 0.1% buy, buy, buy

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:34 | 4436441 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

hyperbullish

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:34 | 4436442 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Wall street keeps adjusting numbers all the way down just so the headline can read "Beat Expectations" 

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:35 | 4436446 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

That is the key to happiness, lowered expectations.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:53 | 4436490 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Little Johnny is not a loser....he is a deffered winner! 

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:06 | 4436532 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

I'm personally looking forward to the next gdp formula revision to make things look more fair and equal. You do realize the old formula is at least 4 months out of date now. /sarc

I always wonder now what the gdp would be under the prior formulas.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:37 | 4436449 Cacete de Ouro
Cacete de Ouro's picture

It's like déjà vu all over again

These sell side cheerleader analysts always seem to be reducing GDP forecasts, they should be called permacutters

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 14:03 | 4436911 zaphod42
zaphod42's picture

Maybe they should wait until they get the data, then issue their forecasts.  Always beating, never retreating. 

And all is still for the best, in this, the best of all possible markets.

Craig

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:40 | 4436456 Cacete de Ouro
Cacete de Ouro's picture

Action Economics? WTF is that?

Bernanke and Yellen hammering away at it??

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:44 | 4436474 skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

wait til the January nat gas bill has to be paid b4 disconnection... long cat food and spam!

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:18 | 4436570 Scoobywan
Scoobywan's picture

All those years being locked in a few cents above spot on Nat Gas are finally paying off, Eat shit NIPSCO!

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:47 | 4436477 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Who cares about God Damn Propaganda when you got your Yellen printing like a Banshee.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 14:06 | 4436922 zaphod42
zaphod42's picture

... 34 years, and counting. 

The last POTUS not a slave of the banksters was Carter - - - and we all know how great the economy was then. 

Maybe listening to lies ...  naw, don't even want to think that way. 

Reality rules.  It may suck, but it still rules.

Craig

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:54 | 4436492 Spungo
Spungo's picture

We should set the expectation of total war and zombie apocalypse. That way we can say we beat expectations.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:58 | 4436509 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

I'll be doing my level best to produce and spend as little as possible to help stop this shit show.

FUCK YOU FED AND BARRY!

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:00 | 4436512 fijisailor
fijisailor's picture

Don't worry.  Old bubble head Yellen will save us.  Just look at the shape of her head.  That explains it all.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:18 | 4436560 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

When the banksters have unloaded enough inventory on the retail investors/bagholders, the market should roll for good.

 

This is a concerted effort between the lamestream media (who pump it) and the banksters (who dump it) and the average lemming gets fucked yet once again.

 

Only one problem.  It's not working this time.  Too many lemmings have figured out the bagholder game and aren't buying.

 

So jack it higher banksters!!!!!  weeeeeeee!!!!! higher, higher!!!!!! weeeeeeeee!!!!!!

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:21 | 4436589 laomei
laomei's picture

Here's what I don't get for some reason.  If the fed is pumping out $85b a month, that's $1.02t a year. Dec 2013 estimated GDP was $17.1t... so pumping in 6% of the gdp in basically free money only results in a growth of 1-2%.  It's almost as if something is horribly broken.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:23 | 4436599 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Somebody needs to invent something called a Memory hole.

"1984;" it's a cookbook!

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:36 | 4436637 Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

Notice how the more corrupt a firm is, the higher their GDP expectations?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:58 | 4436708 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

Hats off to Hatzius

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 13:09 | 4436750 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Do we have a period for these estimates? Q4? Coming year? Current quarter?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 13:48 | 4436872 Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

someone forgot the legend to their Excel 2003 chart.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 13:47 | 4436866 Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

As Jim Willie has been pointing out for years, r e a l GDP "growth" is negative if you use Shadowstats price inflation statistics (8-9%) instead of the government propaganda CPI.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 13:57 | 4436895 akak
akak's picture

While the CPI and other inflation statistics (well, pretty much EVERY economic statistic) from the BL(B)S are obviously bogus and lowballed, to be honest I do believe that John William's ShadowStats tends to currently somewhat overestimate the rate of inflation (US dollar depreciation).  Nevertheless, Jim Willie's point regarding overstated GDP and the actual shrinking of the economy when measured in REAL terms still stands.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 14:06 | 4436931 zaphod42
zaphod42's picture

"I do believe that John William's ShadowStats tends to currently somewhat overestimate the rate of inflation (US dollar depreciation)."

My wish is you are right.  My fear is they understate it somewhat. 

We'll see.  Sadly.

Craig

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