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The Sell-Side Starts Its Mass GDP Downgrades

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Despite the promise that it's different this time, that this time the growth rebound is "sustainable", that we we have finally reached "escape velocity", the dismal truth - as we noted last night courtesy of Mr Santelli - is that it is anything but different this time. On the back of disappointing retail sales (among others) and likely further weakened by this morning's drop and downward revisions in Industrial Production, the herd of sheep-like sell-side strategists have taken the knife to their hope-filled GDP growth expectations. Of course, this is all weather-related and the hockey-stick will revert to a new normal self-sustaining recovery any day now.

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 


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Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:32 | Link to Comment vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

...and next week we probably start seeing that WTI rise at the gas pumps.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:40 | Link to Comment Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

Inquiring minds want to know what the new Debt Limit is. Does the debt to GDP ratio matter just in Greece?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:54 | Link to Comment Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Tooting my own horn here, but the last free advice I gave out on ZH (DYODD) has worked well in the short term, AGQ and SLW up quite a lot recently.  SLW was just SCREAMING buy at $20, a couple months back.  AGQ up big on no news, but it was severely undervalued recently.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:41 | Link to Comment Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

I'm guessing you (coincidentally) hold a lot of SLW.

"Herd Redirection Committee," indeed. Ppffttthhh.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 17:05 | Link to Comment Wait What
Wait What's picture

WTI already hitting the pocketbooks in california. premium hit 4.00 this morning, up from 3.69 2 weeks ago.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:34 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

If we don't need jobs anymore as they are infringing on our "freedoms", how long can profits be a good thing? Big corps are just following Big O's lead. No one said it would be painless to be saved, we just have to learn to to complain, for our own good of course.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:33 | Link to Comment Arrowflinger
Arrowflinger's picture

GDP - Government Depressed Product

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:36 | Link to Comment Max Damage
Max Damage's picture

Get the downgrades in now, and then when they beat by 0.1% buy, buy, buy

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:34 | Link to Comment PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

hyperbullish

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:34 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Wall street keeps adjusting numbers all the way down just so the headline can read "Beat Expectations" 

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:35 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

That is the key to happiness, lowered expectations.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:53 | Link to Comment Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Little Johnny is not a loser....he is a deffered winner! 

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:06 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

I'm personally looking forward to the next gdp formula revision to make things look more fair and equal. You do realize the old formula is at least 4 months out of date now. /sarc

I always wonder now what the gdp would be under the prior formulas.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:37 | Link to Comment Cacete de Ouro
Cacete de Ouro's picture

It's like déjà vu all over again

These sell side cheerleader analysts always seem to be reducing GDP forecasts, they should be called permacutters

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 14:03 | Link to Comment zaphod42
zaphod42's picture

Maybe they should wait until they get the data, then issue their forecasts.  Always beating, never retreating. 

And all is still for the best, in this, the best of all possible markets.

Craig

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:40 | Link to Comment Cacete de Ouro
Cacete de Ouro's picture

Action Economics? WTF is that?

Bernanke and Yellen hammering away at it??

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:44 | Link to Comment skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

wait til the January nat gas bill has to be paid b4 disconnection... long cat food and spam!

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:18 | Link to Comment Scoobywan
Scoobywan's picture

All those years being locked in a few cents above spot on Nat Gas are finally paying off, Eat shit NIPSCO!

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:47 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Who cares about God Damn Propaganda when you got your Yellen printing like a Banshee.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 14:06 | Link to Comment zaphod42
zaphod42's picture

... 34 years, and counting. 

The last POTUS not a slave of the banksters was Carter - - - and we all know how great the economy was then. 

Maybe listening to lies ...  naw, don't even want to think that way. 

Reality rules.  It may suck, but it still rules.

Craig

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:54 | Link to Comment Spungo
Spungo's picture

We should set the expectation of total war and zombie apocalypse. That way we can say we beat expectations.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 11:58 | Link to Comment Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

I'll be doing my level best to produce and spend as little as possible to help stop this shit show.

FUCK YOU FED AND BARRY!

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:00 | Link to Comment fijisailor
fijisailor's picture

Don't worry.  Old bubble head Yellen will save us.  Just look at the shape of her head.  That explains it all.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:18 | Link to Comment Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

When the banksters have unloaded enough inventory on the retail investors/bagholders, the market should roll for good.

 

This is a concerted effort between the lamestream media (who pump it) and the banksters (who dump it) and the average lemming gets fucked yet once again.

 

Only one problem.  It's not working this time.  Too many lemmings have figured out the bagholder game and aren't buying.

 

So jack it higher banksters!!!!!  weeeeeeee!!!!! higher, higher!!!!!! weeeeeeeee!!!!!!

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:21 | Link to Comment laomei
laomei's picture

Here's what I don't get for some reason.  If the fed is pumping out $85b a month, that's $1.02t a year. Dec 2013 estimated GDP was $17.1t... so pumping in 6% of the gdp in basically free money only results in a growth of 1-2%.  It's almost as if something is horribly broken.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:23 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Somebody needs to invent something called a Memory hole.

"1984;" it's a cookbook!

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:36 | Link to Comment Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

Notice how the more corrupt a firm is, the higher their GDP expectations?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 12:58 | Link to Comment Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

Hats off to Hatzius

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 13:09 | Link to Comment lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Do we have a period for these estimates? Q4? Coming year? Current quarter?

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 13:48 | Link to Comment Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

someone forgot the legend to their Excel 2003 chart.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 13:47 | Link to Comment Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

As Jim Willie has been pointing out for years, r e a l GDP "growth" is negative if you use Shadowstats price inflation statistics (8-9%) instead of the government propaganda CPI.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 13:57 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

While the CPI and other inflation statistics (well, pretty much EVERY economic statistic) from the BL(B)S are obviously bogus and lowballed, to be honest I do believe that John William's ShadowStats tends to currently somewhat overestimate the rate of inflation (US dollar depreciation).  Nevertheless, Jim Willie's point regarding overstated GDP and the actual shrinking of the economy when measured in REAL terms still stands.

Fri, 02/14/2014 - 14:06 | Link to Comment zaphod42
zaphod42's picture

"I do believe that John William's ShadowStats tends to currently somewhat overestimate the rate of inflation (US dollar depreciation)."

My wish is you are right.  My fear is they understate it somewhat. 

We'll see.  Sadly.

Craig

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