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Citi Bullish On Gold & Silver "Continue To Expect Further Gains"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The technical set up on Gold looks increasingly bullish and Citi's FX Technicals group continues to expect further gains. The picture on Silver also looks constructive and Citi notes, over time it may well outperform Gold. A weekly close above the $1,434, if seen, would suggest extended gains towards $1,685 and beyond. As they warn (gold bears), we may have “seen this movie” before... as late 70s deja-vu happens all over again.

Via Citi FX Technicals,

Gold: Daily chart looking very constructive

Following the hold of support just above $1,180 this chart has gone from strength to strength with a turn higher that took us back above both the 55 day moving average and the downward sloping trend line decisively.

It is now approaching the 200 day moving average which stands at $1,305.50. A close above here would further support our view of a move to test major resistance at $1,434 with interim resistance around the October 2013 high at $1,362

The $1,434 level is a potential neckline for a double bottom formation off the $1,180.50-1,182.50 level. A weekly close above here, if seen, would suggest extended gains towards $1,685+

As the chart below shows, we may have “seen this movie” before

Gold: Weekly chart is setting up like 2012

Between December 2011 and May 2012 we saw Gold form a double bottom and post a bullish weekly reversal 2 weeks after the 2nd low was posted. That ultimately led to a test of the double bottom neckline by October 2012 albeit that it was not able to break above that resistance on a weekly close basis ($1,791)

This time around we have also seen a double bottom (Between June and Dec 2013) with a bullish weekly reversal posted on the same week that the 2nd low was put in.

We fully expect that Gold has the potential to once again test the neckline of a double bottom which stands at $1,434)

A weekly close above here, if seen, would suggest (as noted above) extended gains towards $1,685+

Gold : Monthly chart still looks similar to the 1970’s

In 1974-1976 as the equity market surged Gold corrected sharply in a move that took it 14% below the 55 month moving average.

In 2011-2013 as the equity market surged Gold corrected sharply in a move that took it 14% below the 55 month moving average.

In fact the correction in 1974-1976 was greater in real terms than that seen today (44% versus 29%)

Between 1976 and early 1980 Gold surged higher again in an even stronger uptrend than that seen from 1969-1974

If you ignore the surge seen in Dec 1979-Jan 1980 (prompted by the U.S.S.R. invasion of Afghanistan) both impulsive moves (1969-1974 and 1976-1980) saw Gold multiply by a factor of around 5 times. The rally from 2001 to 2011 (Much longer in time) saw gold multiply by a factor of over 7 times.

A trend from the 2001 low of similar percentage (excluding the USSR invasion pop) as seen in 1969-1980 would suggest we could ultimately see a level of $3,500…maybe as early as late 2016/early 2017.

Why is the move much slower this time? Prior to the sharp move from 1970-1980 Gold was suppressed /controlled in a $15 range for the prior 50 years ($20-$35). When it was allowed to float ‘freely” the pressure “cooker effect” kicked in to compensate for that period. For more than 30 years leading into 2001 Gold has been relatively freely floating (Albeit with elements of Central Bank interference). As a consequence the “pressure cooker effect” to create really sharp moves over a very short timeframe was not in place this time. While this has still led to significant gains in the first leg higher it has been over a much longer time frame. In contrast the 2nd rally in 1976-1980 came after gold had already had its “pressure cooker break” and had been floating for about 6 years. This suggests that a renewed rally in Gold now could well be more similar in time frame to the 1976-1980 move.

Silver: daily chart setting up nicely.

Silver has also broken above the downward sloping trend line and the 55 day moving average and looks to be forming a shorter term double bottom. The neckline stands at $20.60 and a break would suggest a move towards $22 which would take it above the 200 day moving average at $21.07.

Further resistance is met at $23.09 (October 2013 high) and then the most important level is the longer term double bottom neckline at $25.10.

A weekly close above here, if seen, would suggest extended gains towards $31+

If both the Gold and Silver longer term double bottoms were completed and targets reached ($1,685 in Gold and $31 in Silver) that would suggest a Gold versus Silver ratio of about 54 compared to the present level of about 64 (So Silver to outperform Gold by about 50% - A move of about 45% in Silver versus 30% in Gold)

Silver: Weekly chart also setting up in a similar fashion to 2012

In 2012 Silver did rally strongly off its base but just fell short of the neckline around $37.50 before falling again.

A decisive break above the $20.60 level (Weekly close) should yield an acceleration towards the important $25.10 level

However, it is a weekly close above this level, if seen, that would suggest the much bigger move towards $31+

Silver: Monthly chart also shows big resistance in the $26-26.50 area

This is where the downward sloping trend line, the horizontal resistance and the 55 month moving average converge.

Regaining these levels on a monthly close basis would suggest a very constructive outlook and make that $31 area look very achievable.

Gold/Silver ratio daily chart: Set to turn lower?

The bounce in this ratio since August last year has so far peaked at the 76.4% pullback of the July-August fall.

Initial support is met between 61.70-62.60 (Rising trend line and 55/200 day moving averages.

More important support stands between 57.63 and 57.84 (Pivot off which the 76.4% pullback was posted and channel base). A close below here would suggest an acceleration of losses to the downside

Gold/Silver ratio weekly chart: Move to 200 week moving average a danger?

Further support could be seen at the 55 week moving average which stands at 60.62. In addition there is a decent gap to the 22 week moving average at 54.62 (Very similar to the level of 54 mentioned above if our extended targets for Gold and silver were achieved)

 

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Mon, 02/17/2014 - 21:39 | 4446433 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

When banks get bullish, I get bearish. Thanks Citi....probably means we test 880-1000 on the bottom of the long range channel. If it does, it'll be the buy of a lifetime

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 21:46 | 4446453 BeanusCountus
BeanusCountus's picture

+1. I mean, they have been wrong on virtually everything. Thinking of protecting my holdings of miners and bullion soon.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 21:50 | 4446463 National Blessing
National Blessing's picture

Deflation deflation deflation.  Silver and gold have no future.  Invest in cat food and ammo.  Blockheads.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:12 | 4446512 BeanusCountus
BeanusCountus's picture

Not sure about the catfood. But gold and silver have no future? Disagree with that one. It will have a value that goes down in currency terms like everything else. But it will have value. Real value. Plus, in the attempt to prevent true deflation by the central banks, it just might be the best store of value of any asset. And the planners that be will not go quietly in the night.

Everyone should own some.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:17 | 4446542 logicalman
logicalman's picture

When the dollar is worthless, what will the 'price' of Au & Ag?

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:27 | 4446575 BeanusCountus
BeanusCountus's picture

Um, priceless?

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:44 | 4446626 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

Lol. Yes, when compared to the current fiat US dollar but what if it no longer remains fiat? Or, some other paper based on the gold standard becomes fungible with the "worthless" dollar? ...Of course, physical protects us against "ifs" and "buts."

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 07:16 | 4447312 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

 

Blockheads

 

Keep in touch butthead.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 22:25 | 4451050 X_mloclaM
X_mloclaM's picture

1/2mt silver delivery in HK only, back in 2010?

Http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/4/14_J...

a run on the fractional gold banks? cash settlement means price "would go to the moon"

 

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 23:15 | 4446728 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Good for a fine custom fit suit.

 

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 03:22 | 4447188 snr-moment
snr-moment's picture

who cares what the dolllar is worth.  Gold and silver, 2000 years and counting.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:20 | 4446554 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

You stock up on cat food for your cats.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:41 | 4446613 satoshi411
satoshi411's picture

High protein, long shelf-life,... very valuable, especially the canned type, that will be worth its weight in gold.

Well that is only in a mad-max like scenario, but who is going stick around for that?

*

Most likely the USA will just do same, put everybody on welfare, keep them on TV at 'home', and anybody that protests is sent to CAMP-FEMA, where you are 'black-bagged' and forgotten.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 23:22 | 4446741 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Nation B

Deflation is not possible with a fiat currency. No society will bear the pain of it for long. Even the Tea Party folks will call for easing if it gets too bad. Why suffer from deflation if you don't have to and you can spread the love (new dollars) to your friends....even if it kills the currency...which is feeling kinda sickly anyway.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 00:44 | 4446953 superflex
superflex's picture

You can create all the accounts you want but your shitty blog remains the same.

Fuck you troll

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:35 | 4446590 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

"I mean, they have been wrong on virtually everything."

It would be interesting and maybe telling to resurect their analysis from the 2011-2012 "double-bottom" that happened near the top. Were they calling for it to fail then or go hyberbolic?

A link to a track record would be value-added and most welcome to accompany the forecasting posts.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 05:42 | 4447271 QE49er
QE49er's picture

Yes, we here at ZeroHedge are that smart, ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?.....They are Morons compared to us.

Still trying to figure out to be bullish or bearish on this news?  It's so simple. All we have to do is divine from what we know of Citi: Is Citi the sort of trading company that would put a bullish sentiment from these technicals or say the opposite? Now, a clever company would put a bullish call for gold because they would know that only great fools would buy on the news that they were given. We are not great fools, so we can clearly not choose to go bullish on gold. But they must have known we are not great fools, they would have counted on it, so we can clearly not choose to go bearish on gold. 

So do we know now what we can choose?  Not remotely, because banks are full of criminals, and criminals are used to having people not trust them, as they are not trusted by us, so we can clearly not choose to go bullish on gold.  And they must have suspected that we would have known of the Banks original intent so we can clearly not choose to go bearish.  Also, They are TBTF which means they are exceptionally strong so they could have kept quiet about it, trusting on their strength to save them so we can cleary not choose to go bullish on gold.  But, they also bested the 1929 & 2008 collapses, which means they must have studied, and in studying they must have learned that gold is money, so they would have kept the bullish sentiment as far away from anyone as possible so we can clearly not choose to go bearish on gold.

They have given everything away, we know what the answer is, and we choose...

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 06:34 | 4447287 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Algo-Immunity? Inconceivable!

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:00 | 4446490 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

And there it is.....the kiss of death.

$18 silver here we come!

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:20 | 4446555 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

 

 

Same with gold?

Just buy anyway.  Keep buying (slowly OK, that's what I did) until you have enough.  What is "enough"?  However much you feel comfortable about based on your knowledge about gold and your own circumstances.  That is the first lesson of "FOFOA 101".

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:32 | 4446586 satoshi411
satoshi411's picture

The rule of thumb here in Asia seems to be 2-5 Ounces per family,

They do it in TAEL, but Ounces are easier.

SHTF people can just walk away and start over, How much money is that? I'm not sure in Western culture how long $5,000 would last anyone, but in Asia, that would be 3 years salary for most people I know.

*

So to help answer Chen's question, where GOLD is INSURANCE, and you need to have liquid wealth that can be moved on the RUN, it just depends on your BURN-RATE as to how much you need.

I don't think anybody thinks of GOLD as an investment, and certainly not as speculation, its just insurance, a family without 2-5 ounces of GOLD would be just fucking morons or losers.

*

Using the normal USA rule-of-thumb, working backwards, ...say 6 months budget, so say $15k, that's still 15 ounces, but sadly I'm sure most here $15k wouldn't last you a week let alone six months.

The long term was always 5% hold of GOLD in total assets, but given most ameriKKKan's have negative net worth, what the fuck does 5% mean anymore?

Say you got $500k real savings, ... then that's $25k, or about 20 ounces of gold, and you should be able to use that as 'insurance'.

*

Again its really all about burn-rate, and living in a place where you don't need that much money to live, and therefore you don't need that much GOLD INSURANCE.

 

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 23:34 | 4446783 BeanusCountus
BeanusCountus's picture

Feeling like im "overposting", and dont want to preach, but just want to say you are on my plane. My dad, may he RIP, told me long ago that you need enough "to get out, if you ever have to". And his profession? The managing partner of a stock brokerage firm. Told me: nothing is worth anything if it doesnt pay you something, unless it's gold. And you may need gold someday to get out of where you are and start over. So thats why i buy it, thats why I hold it.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 12:02 | 4448181 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

I buy it because every fiat currency that ever existed always went to zero...and the dollar, sacked with hundreds of trillions in outright debt and future liabilities, is well on it´s way to joining it´s place in fiat history.  The Euro, the Yen, and many others, are all backed by nothing but staggering debt as well.  They will suffer the same fate.  There is only so much a nations tax base can bear before interest payments consume it all.  Not to mention the quadrillion in derivatives now in existance underlying the entire worldwide financial system.  Phyzz and other hard assets will provide fiscal morphine during the Great Reset, paper, in all it´s forms on the other hand, will not.  Make no mistake about it though, when this bitch blows, everyone on Earth will be in pain...and many will not survive.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:42 | 4446611 BeanusCountus
BeanusCountus's picture

Now that.. qualifies as good advice in my book. Its an asset class. A real one. Personally, i think 25-100 ounces is about right.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:37 | 4446556 philipat
philipat's picture

I am in general agreement with the sentiment, BUT Tom Fitzpatrick at Citi is one of the very few analysts who do a reasonable job of analysis. Technicals, however, probably don't mean a great deal in a market which has been so heavily manipulated, except to the extent that the manipulators do use technical levels to their advantage when mustering counter-attacks against a rising trend.

EDIT: Which just happened. They (Probably BIS in HKG) just raided Au as it approached the technically significant 1233 level. The monkeys are still there and still playing, but they don;t have any bananas (Physical) to throw this time around.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:37 | 4446601 satoshi411
satoshi411's picture

Gold is stuck between $800 to $1600 for a long time,

Like I have said, Chinese will dump in mass at about $2300 should it get there,

Black-Swan on horizon, I don't see it,

Personally I think deflation will continue, and that poor nations (USA) will continue to sell their gold to eat.

*

The real issue is 'black swan' on Horizon, I don't think so,... its almost like NOTHING knocked anybody off the couch anymore, ... all news has become so sensational that all have been numbed.

Shit even 911 repeat wouldn't create a real black swan in the USA.

Have to be some kind of viral pandemic, like the black-plague where millions of dead are laying in the streets, will that happen? Probably not, "VECTOR CONTROL", is pretty fucking good.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:48 | 4446641 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

Deflation probably continues as long at there is a trade deficit. Another post today was a topic on food inflation due to domestic droughts. If the food will need to be imported, then won't the ongoing export of US dollars temper the domestic inflation?

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:50 | 4446652 billsbest
billsbest's picture

During the Soviet grain deal in the 1980s bread prices skyrocketed here as our US grain left our shores. A bidding war prevails.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:53 | 4446665 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

Remember the images of Russias wheat fields on fire all over the media a couple years ago? Best grain short!!

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 07:20 | 4447318 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

Gold is stuck between $800 to $1600 for a long time,

 

Mercifully.....bitcoins have been spared that fate.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 07:30 | 4447323 The Mist
The Mist's picture

What does the chart of Gold matter? Just buy & hold till fiat collapses. It'll be worth infinite euro's and dollars.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 23:28 | 4446760 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

s 411

2300 would be the rough, inflation adjusted, level as we saw in 1980. Some of us see gold being transformed in function as the next step. Selling gold at 2300 would be the trap of all time. Get folks to release physical into the market place, buy it up and reprice it higher....kinda like Franky D did in 1933.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 23:31 | 4446769 Race Car Driver
Tue, 02/18/2014 - 07:47 | 4447337 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

race car , I am surprised the nyt would print this generic drug scandal ...we have shipped millions of jobs to india and china in the production of generics, it was insane policy, but then what has not been insane in the .gov actions ?? screw the american public's jobs and health...I wait for the true patriots to act, and wait and wait...

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:18 | 4447482 Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture

> I am surprised the nyt would print this generic drug scandal ...

 

In Satan's world, the weird little rules say that the dumb masses have to be told whenever something is (going to be) done to them. Sometimes it's very subtle, like obscure music lyrics and symbols - sometimes it's simply spelled out.

Here, it's spelled out - one only need make the proper inferences.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:16 | 4446535 Droel
Droel's picture

This recent up trend is not about gold or silver, but commodities in general.  Look at everything, gold, silver, copper, zinc, etc, it all has the same trend.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:51 | 4446649 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

Do you mean against the US dollar? Then, look at the DiXeY. Is the bottom about to drop out? 79 or 74, or hold around 80? Commodities going gangbusters now may be telling about the USD.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 14:14 | 4448861 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

DXY has no mathematical bearing on anything in reality: it is a fixed, inaccurate weighted measure of other currencies, not reflecting any price or supply of any commodity, or bond yields or geopolitical activity, war or annexation, nothing is in there.

It's useless.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:43 | 4446618 rubiconsolutions
rubiconsolutions's picture

Bitcoin bitchez!

Oh, I'm sorry, wrong thread.

Sincerely,

fonestar

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 00:35 | 4446932 fonestar
fonestar's picture

YES!!  BITCOIN!!

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 01:02 | 4446981 Flux
Flux's picture

Bitcoin deserves our respect and appreciation. It paved the way.... for Dogecoin!

We now have our own ATM:

http://www.straight.com/life/588421/worlds-first-dogecoin-atm-launches-v...

Much happiness. So currency.

To the moon!

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 07:57 | 4447349 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Reap the whirlwind.....with bitcoins.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:27 | 4447766 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

People with IQ's of 80, including African Natives, frequently chant the same simple slogans over and over again; it seems to bring them some kind of peace, or relaxation. I wish you would do it somewhere else, however.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:03 | 4447805 fonestar
fonestar's picture

It is also chanted repeatedly chanted by the devotees of Satoshi Nakamoto who wish to achieve Satoshi conciousness.  A state of intelligence and awareness and being most of you could only dream of (if not for your own lack of faith and poor 32 bit AMD single-core processing abilities).  Beyond that, it will be beaten into your subconciousness whether you understand, support it or not (voluntary?  We don't care).

World's premier financial blog is Zerohedge.  World's strongest currency is Bitcoin.  Get it?

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 23:25 | 4446748 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

"When banks get bullish, I get bearish. Thanks Citi...."

Correct, lets all help out Citi.  Go long Hanging Rope. It is the least we can to for our Bankster brethren.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 04:20 | 4447233 The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

Thanks RTTB, reminded me why I clicked on the link here.

FUCK YOU CITI and all you other fuckers on Bank Street - JUMP you Mother Fuckers, JUMP!

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 07:15 | 4447311 heavy.metal
heavy.metal's picture

They NEED more weak hands to break into the $1100-$1150 range. Last time there weren't enough suckers holding paper IOUs, so they need to lure them first.

Have you notice the recent GLD increase? About 10 tons worth of sheep coming in, ready to be fleeced.

PLEASE bring it down. I'm preparing my next purchase and I'd like it to be as cheap as possible.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:25 | 4447752 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

The market doesn't care what you like. If you're going to buy PM's you should do it now. The recent bottom forming formation on the price chart is a reflection of human behaviours and actions; not just a line on a piece of paper. Unless you're against making profits, for some reason, you should consider buying Silver, instead, as it will increase more in percentage terms than Gold.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 07:30 | 4447322 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Correct. If these fuckwit analysts were any good, they'd have been recommending Gold at sub 1200 instead of waiting for over $100 increase to start recommending it. What a bunch of idiots.

DavidC

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:21 | 4447719 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Apparently you don't know what a long range channel is. It's something you draw with a ruler and a pencil on a chart; it consists of two lines; one along the tops of a price curve and the other along the bottom.  The market is in a well-defined upward channel; the bottom of the present channel is still very close to where we are now; $1000/oz. has nothing to do with any "channels". It's just a left over from a previous time.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 14:10 | 4448840 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

it's never correct to draw LINES on a curved chart.

You need to apply a kernel function to make the curves go away first, THEN apply lines with equations, THEN re-curve the entire thing using the inverse of the kernel function.

SAT 80 is more like it.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 21:39 | 4446434 ms8172
ms8172's picture

Do it then!!!

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 21:42 | 4446442 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

we'll hit $1600 this year.. start taking your gains around then..  keep an extra stack around but if you are trading enjoy the gains

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 21:57 | 4446480 Croesus
Croesus's picture

It wouldn't surprise me if Gold goes back up to $1900. Then again, it wouldn't surprise me if Gold goes back to $900, because nothing surprises me anymore. 

Even when you have a 100%-logical, soundly-reasoned argument for a specific outcome to occur, the paper magicians pull a new rabbit out of their hat, and the can is kicked, yet again. 

 

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:31 | 4446546 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

I predict that I have no idea where the price will be at anytime in the future. I have my physical...and probably will not be adding much more. Should the price go to 1000 or 2000...I am not going to sell.  The bankers can go fuck themselves.   

If the price goes to 500 I will shrug my shoulders and move on...if it goes to 5000...we are likely all fucked so....we will take from there. 

As some bald pompous cum stain once put it....I do not think anybody really understands the price of gold. 

Wise words, Mr. Cum Stain. 

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:34 | 4446593 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

Who sent you here?   I would like to find out why this mentality infested this site over the years...

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:49 | 4446605 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdz4dCMGbbw

Who sent you here, Dark pools? Where is it written that home prices are a giffen good? When is it a prudent investment decision to finance an asset..think car...student loan...that has a negligible value?  

My precious metals will be here long after Tesla and a Phd in Economics from Princeton have been placed in the bad investment section of the garbage heep humana. 

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 08:01 | 4447351 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Not sure what QE to the tune of a trillion a month will mean.....maybe they'll pay you to take gold off their hands.

 

If there's any left after China get first dibs that is.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 04:46 | 4447240 The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

I bought some silver at $5/oz, quite a bit more at $12/oz and a lot at $20/oz, and some at $35/oz.

After that I starting thinking about what I was doing.

At first I thought I would "cash in" at a high point then realized I had bought an insurance policy.

So I'm not selling and I hope my daughter or grand children never have to sell 'the lode' - if it ever has to be used as insurance, the world (or what remains of the USofA) will be one hell hole, and maybe it'll be of some use.

I hope it's passed on as some crazy thinking of great great grandpas hobby, collecting silver.

Stack on my friends, stack on. Even Jim Cramer said it's a rigged casino: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/even-cramer-now-outraged-casino-formerl...

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:18 | 4446548 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Well let them do their slam down thing to the pound; somewhere in the .57 region by next week would be fine by me.... 

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:19 | 4446553 logicalman
logicalman's picture

One day, they'll fuck up.

If you have no metal, at that point, you will be fucked up too.

Remain calm.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:58 | 4446675 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

"Even when you have a 100%-logical, soundly-reasoned argument for a specific outcome to occur, the paper magicians pull a new rabbit out of their hat, and the can is kicked, yet again."

Regardless what the prognostication is, it is increasingly prudent to convert counterfeit into real money as you desire.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:31 | 4447777 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

You should stop believing in paper magicians; or any kind of magicians. For Gold to sell for $900/oz. would require that the dollar become more valuable. How is this going to happen? It isn't going to happen, and you know it; stop kidding yourself. Metals markets go up and down, but there are long term trends in them and for the very good reasons; the prices represent decisions made by thousands of people all over the globe, they aren't arbitrary.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 14:01 | 4448801 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

NO : for a paper price even $1 is possible but the actual time-window it can happen is very small, probably a millisecond. Paper prices don't reflect physical prices or supply.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 13:58 | 4448794 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

we'll hit north of 2500 this year.

Get some USLV, some 0.1 oz gold maples & some silver bars, rounds or coins .999 or .9999 maples. Just relax & rake in the real metal and some leveraged (no margin required) cash.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 21:43 | 4446446 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

The PHYZ is gone and the jig is up.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 21:43 | 4446448 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Yawn.

Let me know when it hits 25.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 21:48 | 4446457 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Why is gold dropping $1 a minute?

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:09 | 4446515 Ulterior
Ulterior's picture

everybody waiting for discount from Santa

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:11 | 4446523 Droel
Droel's picture

Sooner or later we'll see a final squeeze downward so all the GLD can be settled.  Gold will disconnect and off to the races.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:17 | 4446543 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

as I was watching it went from $1329 to $1322. I felt compelled to point it out. It's back at $1324.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:27 | 4446574 philipat
philipat's picture

That's a typical capping initiative at a typical "Quiet" market time. Probably orchestrated by BIS out of HKG. Once short covering kicks in, they simply don't have the physical to sustain the capping this time around.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 23:33 | 4446780 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

Go to sleep---wouldn't be surprised if it isn't back up again to the same levels by breakfast.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 00:50 | 4446962 superflex
superflex's picture

Watching the charts makes fonz a dull boy.

Who fucking cares what it's worth in fiat.

It's insurance for me but the dreams of a Lambo for the fonz.

Heyyyyyyyy!

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 03:12 | 4446559 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Because it has broken down, the top is in; next stop a retest of 1300 at the very least if not 1250 or 1200.  That would be uber bulish, medium bullish, and meh, respectively. 

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 21:52 | 4446468 Obamananke
Obamananke's picture

Do charts matter in a manipulated market? I think not!!

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 23:03 | 4446695 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

"Do charts matter in a manipulated market? I think not!!"

Unless you are, or are privy to the one, doing the manipulation, then, yes they do; they always do.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 00:04 | 4446860 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

on fundamentals..unlike equities and treasuries...gold is always to be bought.

on a technical level though those charts are the worst ever.
I still think the major problem is the combination of energy boom and dramatic move towards all electrics in the USA. We'll see if March goes out like a lion here but it's suppose to be up to forty in the next couple of days here.

Copper should be doing great here...but it's not.
And that moon shot in iron ore stockpiles in China is a big shot over the bow of those long metals and materials...let alone commodities in general.

I find the idea of deflation impossible...and yet the data sure looks like a Hellraiser to me.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 00:36 | 4446935 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

"...on a technical level though those charts are the worst ever."

How?

Prices (charts) are amoral, neither good or bad. They are footprints in the sand.

How are footprints good or bad?

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:41 | 4447547 CitizenPete
CitizenPete's picture

Only if they are US government or Fed charts regarding jobs numbers or CPI or GDP ... those comics print to move markets.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 13:31 | 4448657 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Charts are the only way to see the manipulation: who did it, how big & what direction. There's no other tool except for outright whistleblowers.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 21:58 | 4446482 saulysw
saulysw's picture

Bullish gold articles in ZH usually mark a short term top.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 21:59 | 4446484 TaperProof
TaperProof's picture

They know they can't manipulate it forever.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:05 | 4446493 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Blah, blah, double bottom, blah, blah neck line, blah blah, moving average, blah blah, support, blah, blah, blah fucking blah.

While the US has to repatriate Germany's gold and to do so has to go to the open market to buy it what the fuck does anyone with half a brain think is going to happen to the price of gold.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:13 | 4446529 Droel
Droel's picture

Think Germany will settle for cash at whatever the price was when they gave it up ($25)?

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:20 | 4446550 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

That's a good point. Why do they have to wait for physical delivery. Why doesn't the US just give them the cash and tell them to buy it themselves. Ooooo, don't rell me, to maintain some bizarre facade that they have the gold despite the tragic obviousness that they don't.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:39 | 4447539 CitizenPete
CitizenPete's picture

How about the potential market issue that there is not that much good delivery available for purchase at todays spot.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:08 | 4446511 Ulterior
Ulterior's picture

meh, two puffs to 1350 and we might have a tripple bottom if it holds

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 23:08 | 4446711 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

How do you see a triple bottom? Are you just seeing if someone is paying attention?

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:27 | 4446516 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

dammit, looks like its time to sell out my leap calls already; way to KoD it Citi...

 

Who am I kidding, I am not even going to look at selling those for a couple years.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:11 | 4446522 chump666
chump666's picture

meanwhile in Asia/Thailand:

*Mkts fear run on Thai banks, depositors withdrew THB30bln fm govt savings bank

 

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:16 | 4446534 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

What a shame to see so many livelihoods riding on the balance of speculation, in the midst of chaos, when it didn't have to be that way.

And what an embarrassment it is when those charged with interpreting the speculative neglect the chaos altogether.

Go Citi, go.
You don't really have a choice any more, do you...

 

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:27 | 4446537 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

I would hope that all ZH readers play their part and short gold. We want to drive the paper price down futher and further in order to buy more and more physical. Everytime you secure another ounce of physical is securing your future by 1 ouce more. There are too many dummies here looking to trade their physical for a higher paper price, they can't extract themselves from the paper ponzi. You know what is truly hilarious, the amount of debate and controversy Bitcoin has generated. A DIGITAL CURRENCY, people exclaim, what the fuck is that, this is a fly by night fad that will vanish. HOW SECURE can your wealth be when locked up in some abstract algorithmic, digital construct. Yet not for a second does anyone ask what that electronic number in their bank is. Can it get anymore abstract, especially when the government can create as much of those electronic bits that it wants. We are funny bunch, we human beings. 

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:39 | 4446609 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

what a kook... by the busloads they have arrived

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:18 | 4446547 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Citi is a bankrupt company, who would possibly listen to this filth?

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:28 | 4446577 devo
devo's picture

In other words, gold is going to tank.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:47 | 4446637 billsbest
billsbest's picture

Silver certainly will be exchanged again, gold, too but for larger transactions. Until we get there though best to have some "bridge currencies" such as canned food, .22LR ammo, 'stuff' you can swap with. Gas doesn't store well. Eeventually, when people ask for silver quarters in place of Marlboros you'll be ready.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:49 | 4446647 Siouxwestern
Siouxwestern's picture

Chartism is hilarious nonsense.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 23:11 | 4446716 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

Nah, Edwards and Magee nailed it.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 23:06 | 4446706 royal
royal's picture

Everytime for the past year that the gold cartel (BofA, Citi, JPM, Goldman etc) start chiming off saying gold is fixing to go full bull retard it does the opposite.

It classic pump and dump shit -- however, I do genuinely thing this time it's different cuz there's just too much shit (Argentina, VEnezuela, Thailand, Ukraine, Greece, Spain) going on.

So, I'm long gold and silver....fuck me good TBTF banks, you know I like it. :)

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 00:10 | 4446874 Spungo
Spungo's picture

"Copper should be doing great here...but it's not."

Wut? Copper is mostly used in copper wire. Completely dead economy = no demand for copper wire = copper should be way down right now, which it is. Copper has been in a slump since 2011, just like the economy.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 13:28 | 4448637 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Copper pipes are good for carrying hot water & for not freezing in the cold. Some prefer PVC to be cheap but you get what you pay for.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 00:17 | 4446892 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Jimmy Fallon is going to have the First Wookie (Moochelle) on his show his first week.

Will I be watcing it?

Fuck no.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 00:43 | 4446950 Prairie Dog
Prairie Dog's picture

Buy gold, Zerohedgies! The Yellen-Bernanke-Obama axis is planning to destroy your currency and enslave you in a socialized medicine gulag!

I come to Zerohedge to be with the smart people!

 

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:30 | 4447516 CitizenPete
CitizenPete's picture

Try not to take the collective mean IQ down a notch.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 01:09 | 4446993 Razzle Dazzle
Razzle Dazzle's picture

I guess the chart plotting can predict what the Fed will do next? Good luck, rigged market. So you think they can front-run the BIS/JP/Citi or whoever is pumping and shorting. They have not run out of steam, think again. My "savy" friends in banking/finance/business think the US is on the up and up. Ironic that I refer to them as savy. Pluuueease. Whether it be the monetory system or false flags it seems the show can go on in full view. At this stage ZH'ers sit with fringe. I want all the neigh sayers to know. where I sit.  It comes to those who have vision and lead the pack. The rest welll... not so lucky.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 02:17 | 4447107 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

and gold is down 11 and falling...I  thought this pump and dump would go to 1350....oh well some currency trader needed something else and sold XAU...

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 07:36 | 4447326 Ulterior
Ulterior's picture

people are funny - when it goes parabolic everybody complains that it cannot sustain the pace, now when they got a pretty substantial dip - they call it a top for a year - think with your own head, dont put everything on one trade and you will see 1350,1400,1800

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 05:07 | 4447251 JPMorgan
JPMorgan's picture

Options expiry on the 26th, we could see a re-test of $1300.

Looking at the 1yr trend the break out above the 200 dma could just prove to be a spike.

IMO it needs to be confirmed by retrace followed by a move higher before I agree the trend may have changed.

Regardless I'm still a buyer higher or lower. (preferably lower).

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:30 | 4447284 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

All these charts do is tell me people are still reading charts.  They are not paniced and perceiving the reality of government paper or fundamentals yet.  The price is stupid low by historical measure.  Wall Street remains clueless and wishful, until they feel the sting up close and personal.  

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 07:17 | 4447315 heavy.metal
heavy.metal's picture

They NEED more weak hands to break into the $1100-$1150 range. Last time there weren't enough suckers holding paper IOUs, so they need to lure them first.

Have you notice the recent GLD increase? About 10 tons worth of sheep coming in, ready to be fleeced.

PLEASE bring it down. I'm preparing my next purchase and I'd like it to be as cheap as possible.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 07:45 | 4447331 Ulterior
Ulterior's picture

We understand, that premium you pay on coins has to be getting in your head lately. Moreover - finding a sucker who buys your coins is a tough job too, if you dont want to pay a seller premium at the same shop. All in all - you have to be really anxious in all aspects

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 08:47 | 4456691 heavy.metal
heavy.metal's picture

What premium? The price of gold coins is the real price. At least for a shrimp like me who can't buy by the tons.

If you can purchase counterfeit IOUs at a discount, good for you. Keep buying worthless electronic promises and you'll get what you deserve, you fucking idiot.

 

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 08:02 | 4447355 Sufiy
Sufiy's picture

Some Gold stocks has printed Golden cross already

 


Gold And Silver Break Crucial Levels Causing Massive Short Squeeze 

"Koos Jansen reports on continued unprecedented appetite from China for Gold, according to his information, after  the unprecedented demand of 2,181 tons of Gold from China in 2013 Chinese Gold demand hits All-Time record of 247 tons in January. Now Gold today's breakout above $1,322 level can be put in another perspective."

 

Meanwhile McEwen Mining has printed The Golden cross on its daily chart.

 

http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/gold-and-silver-break-crucial-levels...

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 12:21 | 4448281 johngerard
johngerard's picture

Bullish? Looks bearish to me. We'll see at least around $1220 again before we see $5000.

 

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 12:23 | 4448285 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

are not all bitcoins made equal? MtQox under 300 - finished!

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