"Soros Put" Hits Record As Billionaire's Downside Hedge Rises By 154% in Q4 To $1.3 Billion

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A curious finding emerged in the latest 13F by Soros Fund Management, the family office investment vehicle managing the personal wealth of George Soros.

Actually, two curious findings: the first was that the disclosed Assets Under Management as of December 31, 2013 rose to a record $11.8 billion (this excludes netting and margin, and whatever one-time positions Soros may have gotten an SEC exemption to not disclose: for a recent instance of this, see Greenlight Capital's Micron fiasco, and the subsequent lawsuit of Seeking Alpha which led to the breach of David Einhorn's holdings confidentiality).

The second one is that the "Soros put", a legacy hedge position that the 83-year old has been rolling over every quarter since 2010, just rose to a record $1.3 billion or the notional equivalent of some 7.09 million SPY-equivalent shares. Since this was an increase of 154% Q/Q this has some people concerned that the author of 'reflexivity' and the founder of "open societies" may be anticipating some major market downside.

Then again, as the chart below shows, as a percentage of total AUM, the put position rose to 11.1% of his notional holdings. By way of reference, as of June 30 2013, his SPY put may have had a smaller notional value, but it represented both more shares (7.8 million), and was far greater as a % of AUM, at 13.5%.

Finally, remember that what was disclosed on Friday is a snapshot of Soros' holdings as of 45 days ago. What he may or may not have done with his hedge since then is largely unknown, and since there are no investor letters, there is no way of knowing even on a leaked basis how the billionaire has since positioned for the market.

That said, while the SPY puts are most likely simply a hedge to his overall bullish exposure, perhaps more notable was the $25 million call position that Soros put on the gold miners ETF which has been beaten into oblivion over the past year, in the fourth quarter. Does Soros think that it is finally the miners' turn to shine?

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Mon, 02/17/2014 - 13:24 | 4445068 Blazed
Blazed's picture

Well now he can fund even more open third world immigration, protests, and chaos in Europe and elsewhere.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 13:38 | 4445106 ACP
ACP's picture

George "The Devil" Soros sure gets a lot of bang for his buck, doesn't he?

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 13:47 | 4445118 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

Yes he does, and he'll get Hillary back in 2016.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 13:55 | 4445137 HyBrasilian
HyBrasilian's picture

UNDEAD Soros betting on the UNDEAD SPY ~ Color me 'zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz'

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 14:11 | 4445180 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

Market fall?

No way! They told me so on MSM, "the stock market [like house prices] never drop."

See. Straight from the horses mouth.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 14:17 | 4445194 HyBrasilian
HyBrasilian's picture

Only an ashkenazi moron, or worse, [a moron who didn't even realize they were an askenazi], could POSSIBLY be interested in what UNDEAD 'Soros' does...

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 14:23 | 4445216 walküre
walküre's picture

To everyone's demise the Ashkenazi are running the show. Not sure where you got a Brazilian done but it appears they waxed off too much.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 14:35 | 4445241 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The one, completely simple, and yet to never let me down in 3 major instances crash indicator (it has absolutely nothing to do with Soros) is flashing bright red, and I've allocated quite a bit of my money made in 2008 towards a heavy allotment of bear put spreads.

This is my first major entry into a one directional position into anything equities related since 2010.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 14:37 | 4445260 walküre
walküre's picture

Yup. The party is over. No significant potential to move to the upside anylonger. Question is not if, but when the dam breaks. Fed is already positioning accordingly. In addition to the stock market crash, I think we'll be seeing debt defaults everywhere including the US paper. The Fed doesn't want to hold this paper anymore than every other moneychanger. What's in it for them to hold crap at ZIRP and near ZIRP?

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 14:44 | 4445270 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I could lose on this trade (placed, in large portion, over the last two weeks), but I can't resist making it given 3 for 3 major wins thus far.

The indicator I'm speaking of could not be more simple or more public (from a contrarian standpoint).

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 15:16 | 4445349 walküre
walküre's picture

What's the indicator?

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 15:24 | 4445369 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

In assessing whether to answer that, the only genuine reason why I even hesitate to offer it up is because it is so rudimentary & non-technical, I actually fear it would cast me in a negative light - so it's my sense of pride that gets in the way, and that's quite pathetic.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 15:28 | 4445387 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Or..., maybe you should pull a "Turd" and start your own revenue producing site, and hosting like-minded editorials.

<sarc>

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:42 | 4446391 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Gold is Money

For thousands of years gold was used as money.  It still is today considering it is used to balance all the central bank balance sheets of the world.  Without the United States Treasury's gold, the Fed would be all but bankrupt, as they (the private bank, as all central banks act outside government authority and have a board which in the Fed's case includes JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, among others) use this position - of the government's gold - to make loans to China so they continue to buy our debt.

Just because FDR and Nixon - by fiat (by decree) decided not to pay debts in gold - does not mean gold is not money.  That would be a logical fallacy; it would be an appeal to authority.  Gold is money because it maintains its intrinsic value; and, by the way, fiat currency does not.  Fiat currency - and this is no ad hom attack, this is a fact - has no real value; it is paper, it is just an IOU and nothing else.  Who accepts IOUs?  Friends and maybe friends of friends, but not those people who do not know the person taking the loan.  In the case of the dollar, who knows how well America - and all Nation-States - can pay back their loans.

The Masters of the Paper Universe have derived enough paper assets to fill all the earths volcanoes and when people realize their dollar is far from valuable - their 401ks are used to manipulate asset prices, and the debt is unpayable - they will run for the exits, but by that time - the time the MSM has to admit they know nothing of finance and economics is uncovered as a great lie - it will be too late for them.

How many people own silver, let alone gold?  Imagine when the many join the few and invest in a form of wealth that maintains its intrinsic value....this will be very bullish for the precious metals; the crash will be like the Titanic and only a few of the many will get in life boats.

My friends, it is time to get in a boat.  It is time to get your family and friends in the same boat.  Buy silver, and buy gold; for our future, and yours.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 08:13 | 4447368 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

 

George has been playing his new toy.......bitcoins.

 

For a fella like George....it's literally candy from a baby.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:44 | 4447834 Shocker
Shocker's picture

The market seems to goes up in bad and good news.

Job Picture - http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

-

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 12:48 | 4448442 libertarianadvocate
libertarianadvocate's picture

Visiting that website breaks my heart.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 15:33 | 4445397 walküre
walküre's picture

Don't be goofy. Maybe your indicator no matter how silly you think it is has actually merit. Much of what we've discussed here and learned over the past few weeks has so much semblance of early 2008, it's outright creepy. How wrong can we be? 65 billion a month is the only thing holding this farce up. That is getting reduced further and further. No word from the Fed or the government about any stimulus to offset the declining economy. China is in the crapper and won't come to the rescue. There's not even a fake debt ceiling debate because they know this time is NOT A DRILL. This is the real deal. Fed will not come to bail out Uncle Sugar again.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 16:08 | 4445441 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I'm not a trader, as I like to believe that my (alleged) sanity will prevent me from doing nothing more than the equivalent of non-productive gambling in completely & totally rigged Casino "markets" (an insult to casinos everywhere, which at least ARE actually regulated).

However, I made a very nice pile of fiat paper 3x at or near peak bubble times prior, and swore I'd never talk specifics after a relative cursed me to eternal damnation because they pulled out of a heavily weighted put position (echoing whatI was doing, NOT speaking of - and with literal demands to know- and NOT even on my recommendation) with losses, in which they WOULD HAVE KILLED IT had they stayed the course for an additional 5 1/2 months

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 17:59 | 4445839 walküre
walküre's picture

Well, take your secrets to the grave then. Sorry about your relative. At least you made money and learned a lesson. Hope your trade works out for all our sakes. If it doesn't, you may have to move in with said relative and that's your official end to a long life at ZH. The relative won't share wireless with you.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 19:29 | 4446093 Abi Normal
Abi Normal's picture

Yes, TIS, I will wish you smooth sailing then, me thinks I have a general, but certainly not exact, thoughts as yours.  I too have an indicator, I can feel it in my bones!

Good luck to you!

PS: Please forgive, if I have offended you, and others, I sometimes can be a real jerk.  Otherwise, we could have a figurative beer and laugh or two maybe, maybe not?

Pax to ya

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 21:14 | 4446374 National Blessing
National Blessing's picture

My favorite country song is I Fall to Pieces.  Patsy Kline is the singer.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 15:42 | 4449237 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Everyone is raggin' on me for not dropping more clues as to what my unproven warning sign is (1st mentioned in Soros' put thread), so, only due to my weakness to popular pressure -

A simple algorithm indexing Dan Zanger + Barrons, bitchez.

And that's the only clue I'm dropping, though it should be all anyone who is remotely familiar with irrationally priced (very much so) markets that are near their culling needs to know - IMO, YMMV, ETC

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 16:16 | 4445501 kito
kito's picture

TIS, what if counterparty risk completely blows up??? makes 2008 look tame?? what of your trades then? wouldnt it be better to be out completely?? 

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 16:48 | 4445580 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The CBs will never let all the "market makers," (Primary Dealers) that are bestowed with great privileges (too-big-to-fail-or-jail) for providing liquidity fail.

Of course, there is always the possibility that in preventing such failure, my returns come in the form of toilet paper.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 17:27 | 4445715 kito
kito's picture

but isnt that what you would expect to happen? shirley you dont think the big one would be nothing more than a downturn within the system of the status quo and life goes on??

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 23:15 | 4446724 LMAOLORI
Tue, 02/18/2014 - 01:44 | 4447062 imbtween
imbtween's picture

It's a friggin PUT. If it's in the money he's richer. If it's not he writes off the cost of the put - a few dollars. BFD.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:24 | 4446566 Crawdaddy
Mon, 02/17/2014 - 14:43 | 4445273 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

They always have been running the freakshow but it doesn't matter, the sheep are so chemically subdued to do anything aout it.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 15:06 | 4445321 walküre
walküre's picture

Don't be a sheep then. You honestly think you can educate morons storming into a Walmart on Black Friday or idiots punching each other over the latest Nike product? Good luck trying. I'm happy my wife and kids have a sense of reality and know what's important. Can't save everyone.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 13:01 | 4448508 aubreyfarmer
Mon, 02/17/2014 - 16:01 | 4445455 kito
kito's picture

HY!!!!!

in kabbalah,  JEWISH mysticism, there is a belief in REINCARNATION........... your presence here strengthens my belief in it!!!  

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 08:36 | 4447404 cnmcdee
cnmcdee's picture

Word on the street about a false flag on 2-22 which will be a 3 cities strike 7X greater than 9/11..

 

Anyone else hear anything about this?

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 23:33 | 4446776 runswithscissors
runswithscissors's picture

UNDEAD Soros...only one way to kill them:  a bullet to the head

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 03:59 | 4447086 sylviasays
sylviasays's picture

How do you kill an evil vampire? Aside from staking them in the heart; there is the removal of the head that is also traditional. My personal favorite is to scatter gold coins in the road before them, near dawn. They are obsessed with counting, according to folklore, and will obsessively count the gold coins until the sun rises, which will destroy them.

However, vampires never really "die." Even dismembered vampires have gathered themselves back together again to play for another day. 

 

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 01:30 | 4447033 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Were you referring to this? "Soros obituary published in error; financier is alive"

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/18/us-soros-obituary-error-idUSBR...

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 01:11 | 4446998 aerojet
aerojet's picture

I don't think so.  She's just too old and not photogenic enough.  Obama won because of his skin color and no other reason--middle class white women and minorities and idiot left-leaning youths voted for Obama.  The Clintons are damaged goods.  It's not happening.

Soros is 83.  I don't care how rich he is, I'm willing to bet he won't make it to 93.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 02:05 | 4447094 sylviasays
sylviasays's picture

Evil vampires don't ever really die.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 03:01 | 4447165 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Almost makes me want to root for the FED's money pump.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:30 | 4447513 mr66
mr66's picture

soros position, correct procedure   66  out

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 13:22 | 4445069 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

Soros sells premium.  Are these puts sold?

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 13:23 | 4445072 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

True intentions on display? George Soros? >PASS<

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:14 | 4446500 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Good point.  Soros is in the clear while Einhorn gets the shaft.  Does Buffet still owe back taxes?  Just saying.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 13:23 | 4445073 Hunter S. Thompson
Hunter S. Thompson's picture

Buy Leaps bitchez

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 15:37 | 4445409 JimS
JimS's picture

Actually, you should buy the security and sell the long-term Leap call.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 15:42 | 4445422 JimS
JimS's picture

Pick stocks that you like (as in products that you buy) , that pay dividends, and write/sell the long-term calls. Great way to make money on a steady basis through market ups and downs. Think stocks like XON, MRO, K, GIS, FCX, AU, and almost any utility.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 15:50 | 4445436 JimS
JimS's picture

You can generate annualized rates of return in the 15 to 20%, year in, year out. With very little risk. The investors that buy naked long calls lose 80% of the time, so, who's making that fucking 80%? The people who own the underlaying stock. Pure, and so simple a fucking monkey could do it.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:24 | 4446533 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

My advice - you guys should buy gold coins and stop worrying about how much "money" you can make in the markets, sit back, and enjoy the sun's glow on the beautiful earth.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 13:26 | 4445078 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

King Rat!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!