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Empire Manufacturing Misses; Plunges Most In 18 Months

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Winter storms and cold weather dominated much of January and somehow Empire State managed its greatest beat in a year; however, we are sure the weather will be blamed for the biggest miss in 3 months for the data in Feb (printing 4.48 vs expectations of 8.5). New Orders tumbled from 10.98 to -0.21; inventories plunged, and expectations for the average work week and future Capex spend expectations collapsed to their lowest since July 09.The drop from January's exuberance is the largest in 18 months.

Biggest drop in 18 months

 

Future Capex spend expectations drop to lowest since July 2009!

 

Of course, the weather will be blamed but we struggle to understand how expetations for 6-months forward capital expenditure will be so negatively affected by some snow in February!

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:44 | 4447554 I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

To The Moon Alice!

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:48 | 4447571 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

Liesman says it's all good........no worries.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:01 | 4447588 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Channel stuffing fairy dixie dust and unicorn farts for dummies......now on sale at Amazon.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:16 | 4447685 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

"Of course, the weather will be blamed but we struggle to understand how expetations for 6-months forward capital expenditure will be so negatively affected by some snow in February!"

It's not this month's snow; it's the unrelenting heat of August.

/s

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:36 | 4447747 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

And speaking of the weather...

Here's one for all you global warming fucktards

 

http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2014/02/17/sea-ice-update-february-17...

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 14:59 | 4449081 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Your channel stuffing fairy dixie dust and unicorn farts made me smile. I was in Walmart this weekend looking for some closeout deals on Valentines candy. No reason to pay full retail, when you can get chocolate at 1/2 off. None to be found. But that wasn't the interesting part. I checked out the Easter display. Only one small aisle. Probably half as big as the Valentine display just a month earlier. If retailers cut back on small seasonal holiday stuff, it tells me they are really cutting back on all inventory. They know what is coming.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:58 | 4447603 RSloane
RSloane's picture

I guess everyone's done amassing inventory and all warehouse space has been depleted. The only thing left to do is set fire to the warehouses and/repeat.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:03 | 4447619 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Paul Krugman would be proud of you.  Now you're thinking like an economist.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:08 | 4447640 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Think of all the jerbs rebuilding warehouses would generate. Then add all of the jerbs created to emass another inventory to flood those warehouses. Who needs consumers in that economic paradise!

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 12:34 | 4448350 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

every stock in the free world is going straight up so it must be pretty alright.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:44 | 4447556 Sudden Debt
Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:49 | 4447575 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

The people smiling in the background of the NY Times picture must either work for a TBTF, or they are government unionized employees.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 13:02 | 4448441 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

From their zombified looks, I guess Govt unionized bureaucrats.  Eager to feed off the living.  Led by President, "We Will Eat Your Children!"

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:45 | 4447557 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

This better explains the 16,000 level of the Dow?  lol, this is a clown show!!  

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:45 | 4447563 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

correction: SHIT-SHOW

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:54 | 4447597 gaoptimize
Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:57 | 4447606 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

At least congress has a career to fall back on.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:04 | 4447623 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Just what we need, and entire class of entitled clowns!

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:05 | 4447625 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Sadly, "the stock market is not the economy".

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:18 | 4447692 Pig Circus
Pig Circus's picture

lol, this is a clown show!!  

 

No No No it's a Pig Circus

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:45 | 4447560 ms8172
ms8172's picture

Why are the S&P futures still up?  Makes no sense all this poor data and the market running up....

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:02 | 4447614 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Because they know they will have to print. and funny money makes the market go higher even though the titanic is sinking.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:11 | 4447654 Law97
Law97's picture

Yet two weeks ago bad news was actually ... bad.  The only explaination is that the news has been so very bad the last two weeks that it is giving hope to the printfest crowd.  Interestiung how one day investors wake up and suddenly view news so bad it's now good again, with no telling when they will flip.  There is no winning in this "market."

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:52 | 4447864 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Everyone knows the system is fucked. Everyone would like to get their wealth out of it before it all collapses. Unfortunately we have been captured by fiat. The only real means of getting out is to cash out, and we all know cash is virtually worthless, especially if by trying to extract our wealth we precipitate an economic collapse. There are those who believe that gold and silver, or some other "investment" is the path, but we know the government can lock that down if they want as well. So, the only path is through the equity markets, if for no other reason than we know those who created fiat, and wish to sustain it, see the stock market as the holy grail of confidence. Confidence is all that holds this together, even if it is knowingly a delusion. There is no way out, not at least as we currently see our lives. As always, when given a choice, most will accept the believable lie over the ugly truth every day. And so it continues...

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:46 | 4447564 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

let me guess, uh.....weather? 

no? 

Martians? 

The walking dead? 

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:47 | 4447568 Sufiy
Sufiy's picture


Peter Schiff: Gold Update, The Dollar Will Collapse First, Janet Yellen Wants More Inflation


 The future will show who is right, but it is very encouraging that despite the very strong move up in Gold there is still record bearishness towards this sector among investors. This is how all Bull markets have started and this New Gold Bull Leg will be no different.   Gold is pushing $1230 level today and Silver is looking at the $22.00 level. US dollar is dangerously close to 80.00 level again, which supposed to be protected. Peter Schiff: "Janet Yellen said that she wants more inflation - she will get it." http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/peter-schiff-gold-update-dollar-will...

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:48 | 4447572 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

IT'S A SNOW PATERN!!!

and than there's the rain patern that usually follows and than a drought patern... a sunshine patern... a full moon patern...

all bullish...

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:48 | 4447573 cjt
cjt's picture

It's all because of the WEATHER.  Everything that goes wrong, even an Obama missed putt!  What a bunch of shit.  With that said Eric King has a great interview with Art Cashin on "the weather" -- it is a must listen.  Got to go, my dog is barking at the weather!

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:50 | 4447579 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

"New Orders tumbled from 10.98 to -0.21"

 

Yes, because all over the country one can hear this at the office ....

... "Hey John, did you place that order for the parts we need?"

... "Order? Are you kidding???  It's cold outside!"

... "Yeah, but the phone is inside."

... "Damn it Boss, it's freezing out there.  I ain't phoning in orders"

... "Ok, John, I understand. You'll get a good bonus for being so productive."

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:23 | 4447740 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

My teeange daughter was driving on icy roads a couple of weeks ago. How the hell am I suppoosed to work when her life could be in danger? 

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:50 | 4447582 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Wrong Way

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:55 | 4447595 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Gnorw yaw. What the hell does that mean?

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:50 | 4447583 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

so do we think the crash starts this friday? or a week from friday? 

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:11 | 4447590 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Crash? You don't see the goodness in this news?

There is so much MOAR goodness there than meets the eye.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:54 | 4447594 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Don't hold your breath

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:55 | 4447600 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Fonz, he's unwashed.  If he doesn't hold his breath, he'll have to smell himself.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:13 | 4447667 RSloane
RSloane's picture

"Stock futures rise ahead of factory data" is the headline on Fox Business page. Breath-holding not permitted - yet.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:18 | 4447694 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Jesus ... more like the Little Orphan Annie Business Page.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:24 | 4447733 RSloane
RSloane's picture

My favorite is Bloomberg where they use the same headline to explain both the rise then plunge of the markets. "Stock futures rise sharply despite poor ISM showing" then later "Stock futures plunge because of poor ISM showing". Saves a lot of time that would be wasted on thinking things through.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:20 | 4447989 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Fox Business will not be outdone by Bloomberg it seems. Their new headline is "Wall Street Ticks Higher Amid Disappointing Data", even though DJIA is now in the red. Next up: DJIA Plunges Amid Disappointing Data.  Wherever would we be without these market oracles.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:58 | 4447607 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

More talk of the manufacturing renaissance coming like we got the other day?  If the manufacturing of BS statements could be counted towards the GDP we'd all be millionaires.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:19 | 4447704 Sufiy
Sufiy's picture

US Dollar drops below 80.00 level now and Gold recovers above $1,320

 


Gold And Silver Break Crucial Levels Causing Massive Short Squeeze 

  As we have mentioned before, Gold and Silver has broken to the upside causingmassive short squeeze. The big boyz are loaded on Gold now and we will monitor today how the mass media will be picking up the Gold story again. It will be nothing more than the info fed for crowd indicator, but it is important to watch the change in the investing public outlook. 

 

http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/gold-and-silver-break-crucial-levels...

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:20 | 4447712 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

bullish. bttotm,(buy the top of the market)

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:21 | 4447721 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

That's the problem with the weather. When it's too cold, no one wants to go to work, and when it clears up and it's a nice day, people call in sick and play hookie to go outside and enjoy the sunshine.  The weather will always screw with our economy. Once you understand this, there is simply no reason for the stock market to go down when we get these bad weather related economic reports. 

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:00 | 4447895 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Are you questioning the accuracy, honesty and wisdom of our leading economic "experts"? Say it ain't so!

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:26 | 4447760 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Must be the size and shape of the snow flakes that's causing all this disruption.

I mean...snow is normal in winter..it's been going on this way  [i.e., snowing in winter] since I was a kid.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:42 | 4447825 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

Burn in Hellen, Janet Yellen!!!!!

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:58 | 4447884 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Chaos presents opportunity to gamblers and disaster for business and their employees. Who do we think is winning? Shall we take score?

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:14 | 4447963 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

Does anyone remember when assembling hamburgers at McDonald's was re-classified as 'manufacturing'? YUP...

Driving to Burger King when there's a half-inch of ice on the road isn't happening right now, so I think it may REALLY BE 'the weather', in this respect.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 12:36 | 4448367 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

Obamanomics has officially reclassified those jobs from "part-time" to "career choice".

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:58 | 4448176 starman
starman's picture

Im so happy I live in Cali!

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 12:16 | 4448254 Your Creator
Your Creator's picture

The cold winter was caused by global warming. signed Lurch.

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